R7 Santa Anita Park · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

7:00 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $65,000 · 11 runners7:00 PM · 5½f Dirt · 11 runners

Upcoming $65K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Freddie BlassieW. Orantes · R. HansonOrantes · Hanson?6-1Fair 6-114%—Debut?3

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?

    Jockey Welfin R Orantes 27% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Ryan Hanson 37% career 3-for-16 on dirt this meet (19%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: Chaotic Neutral 5-1, R9: Strident Miss 30-1 · Trainer R3: Believer 20-1, R6: Hammerbarn 12-1

    First career start, by Dads Caps out of Fight Again. First-time starter from a barn that wins 11% of the time with them (91 tried).

    EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Dads Caps out of Fight Again (Awesome Again)
    Trainer R. Hanson: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 36% in the money (91 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 34% in the money (64 starts) · Maiden special weights: 11% wins, 32% in the money (204 starts)
    Jockey W. Orantes in sprints: 8 wins from 73 (11%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/25SA5f1:01.00handily26/79from gate
    10/18SA4f:47.40handily6/70from gate
    10/12SA5f1:01.20handily6/12
    10/4SA4f:48.60handily39/82from gate
    9/27SA5f1:01.60handily11/15
  2. 2Beat the ManK. Frey · G. PapaprodromouFrey · Papaprodromou?10-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?

    Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career ★ 9-for-34 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 24 · Trainer George Papaprodromou 34% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: B Grayson 8-1, R3: The Moe Show 20-1, R4: Bello Rosso 20-1, R5: Dirty Words 2-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Sendit Mo 3-1, R3: Empire Of Ash 15-1, this race: One Punch Wonder 8-1, R9: Ms Grainger Danger 30-1

    Debut for a trainer who is 8% with first-timers, over 88 starts. Debut for this Bodexpress gelding, whose dam is Casino Games.

    EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 4 works in 30d, last 6d back

    Last three races

    First start. By Bodexpress out of Casino Games (Indian Evening)
    Trainer G. Papaprodromou: 1st-time starters: 8% wins, 26% in the money (88 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 5% wins, 29% in the money (63 starts) · Maiden special weights: 8% wins, 34% in the money (274 starts)
    Jockey K. Frey in sprints: 23 wins from 215 (11%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/25SA5f1:02.20handily62/79
    10/18SA5f1:02.00handily30/46
    10/10SA5f1:01.80handily35/70
    10/4SA4f:50.40handily72/82
    9/28SA4f:50.60handily50/54
  3. 3Swift AppealA. Aguilar · P. MillerAguilar · MillerA805-2Fair 5-227%—80A1

    Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 80

    Jockey Armando Aguilar 30% career 4-for-28 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Peter Miller 30% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Hey Brother 10-1, R4: Wasting Aces 20-1, R5: Doo Wop Don 4-1, R6: Joe Vittori 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Shapoval 8-1, R8: Mo' Em Down 15-1, R9: Palo Alto Baby 15-1
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Freshened 133 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Moves up from maiden claiming $50,000 to maiden special weight.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 5 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    6/20LRC5f DsMd500002nd/7 -½L801.8-1bBrk in/bpd;ins;outkckd
  4. 4One Punch WonderD. Van · G. PapaprodromouVan · Papaprodromou?8-1Fair 12-18%—Debut?

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?

    Jockey Dyke Drayden Van 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer George Papaprodromou 34% career 4-for-23 on dirt this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Sendit Mo 3-1, R5: Check's On The Way 6-1, R8: May Day Ready 5-1, R9: Beautiful Dawn 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Sendit Mo 3-1, R3: Empire Of Ash 15-1, this race: Beat The Man 10-1, R9: Ms Grainger Danger 30-1

    Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 18). First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 12 works since Jul 27.

    EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 6d back)

    Last three races

    First start. By Stay Thirsty out of Spring Moon (Zensational)
    Trainer G. Papaprodromou: 1st-time starters: 8% wins, 26% in the money (88 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 5% wins, 29% in the money (63 starts) · Maiden special weights: 8% wins, 34% in the money (274 starts)
    Jockey D. Van in sprints: 3 wins from 27 (11%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/25SA5f1:02.60handily66/79
    10/18SA4f:48.00handily19/70from gate
    10/4SA5f1:02.60handily58/62
    9/28SA4f:50.60handily50/54
    9/19SLR4f:49.20handily24/47
  5. 5Trojans ForeverA. Ayuso · S. KnappAyuso · Knapp?12-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?

    Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career 6-for-43 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Steve Knapp 30% career 1-for-27 on dirt this meet (4%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Hard To Figure 7-2, R2: Rosaura 7-2, R3: Early Encore 2-5, R4: Dr. Filkins 7-5 +5 more · Trainer R1: B Grayson 8-1, R1: Ima Track Star 6-1, R5: Tapalo 10-1, R6: Gray Thunder 9-2 +3 more

    Unraced so far; the pedigree is Halladay out of Elusive Ride. This barn has 83 first-time starters on record and wins 18% of them.

    EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Halladay out of Elusive Ride (Tiznow)
    Trainer S. Knapp: 1st-time starters: 18% wins, 46% in the money (83 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 20% wins, 49% in the money (59 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 44% in the money (175 starts)
    Jockey A. Ayuso in sprints: 34 wins from 254 (13%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/25SA4f:49.40handily71/111from gate
    10/18SA5f1:02.00handily30/46
    10/11SA5f1:00.40handily5/15
    10/4SA5f1:01.80handily47/62
    9/27SA4f:49.80handily77/100
  6. 6Fully Favorable▼K. Orozco · J. ThomasOrozco · ThomasA5330-1Fair 50-12%—53A▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 83

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 53

    ▼ Best fig 53 is 5+ under today's par 83
    Jockey Kevin E Orozco 30% career · Trainer Jamey Thomas 36% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

    Finished 9th in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at SA, beaten 13 lengths. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 53 against a 83 par.

    EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 7 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3SA6f DsMdSpWt9th/9 -13L5326-1bBroke in; drifted turn
  7. 7So Cal NotteT. Pereira · S. KnappPereira · Knapp?15-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?

    Jockey Tiago Pereira 31% career ★ 7-for-33 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Steve Knapp 30% career 1-for-27 on dirt this meet (4%)
    Also today · Jockey R5: Alpine Thunder 12-1, R6: Gray Thunder 9-2, R8: Little Jamie 10-1, R9: Lihue Princess 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: B Grayson 8-1, R1: Ima Track Star 6-1, R5: Tapalo 10-1, R6: Gray Thunder 9-2 +3 more

    No race yet; there is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 25. With 12 works on record, the first on Aug 9.

    EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Danzing Candy out of Notte Stellata (Time to Get Even)
    Trainer S. Knapp: 1st-time starters: 18% wins, 46% in the money (83 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 20% wins, 49% in the money (59 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 44% in the money (175 starts)
    Jockey T. Pereira in sprints: 31 wins from 234 (13%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/25SA4f:49.40handily71/111from gate
    10/18SA5f1:02.00handily30/46
    10/11SA5f1:00.40handily5/15
    10/4SA5f1:01.80handily47/62
    9/27SA4f:48.80handily45/100
  8. 8Ryne SandbergLSE. Esquivel · S. MiyadiEsquivel · Miyadi?20-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?LS

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?

    LS

    Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career · Trainer Steven Miyadi 28% career 5-for-14 on dirt this meet (36%), #2 of 23
    Also today · Jockey R2: Royal Pearl 2-1, R4: One Last Strike 6-1, R6: Shapoval 8-1, R8: Ambaya 4-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: The Moe Show 20-1, this race: Calvin Graham 5-1, R9: Stay Bossy 30-1

    First-time starter from a barn that wins 9% of the time with them (81 tried). First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 6 works since Sep 21.

    EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 5d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Om out of Ronnie Spector (Grazen)
    Trainer S. Miyadi: 1st-time starters: 9% wins, 38% in the money (81 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 4% wins, 29% in the money (49 starts) · Maiden special weights: 11% wins, 45% in the money (180 starts)
    Jockey E. Esquivel in sprints: 25 wins from 189 (13%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/26SA5f1:04.80handily27/28from gate
    10/18SA4f:53.80handily70/70
    10/12SA4f:48.60handily14/35
    10/1SA2f:25.40handily1/2● bullet
    9/26SA2f:26.20handily2/3
  9. 9High Hull Gill▼C. Herrera · E. AlvarezHerrera · AlvarezA78 688-1Fair 30-14%—78 68A▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 83

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 78 68

    ▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 83
    Jockey Cristobal Herrera 27% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Edwin G Alvarez 25% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Fumano's Fire 20-1, R5: Ya'll Come 30-1 · Trainer R2: Endless Smoke 12-1, R3: Cupid Cowboy 20-1, R3: Fumano's Fire 20-1, R4: Gato Volador 30-1

    Led at the first call last time. 2nd of 22 at 3F on Aug 22, in :36.00.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 13d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/3SA6f DsMdSpWt4th/9 -1½L7820-1Led ins;dueled;weaken
    8/30DMR5f TsMdSpWt8th/9 -4L6836-1Prss3deep;chsd3w;wknd
  10. 10Calvin GrahamM. Americano · S. MiyadiAmericano · Miyadi?5-1Fair 5-117%—Debut?2

    Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?

    Jockey Manuel Americano 33% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet · Trainer Steven Miyadi 28% career 5-for-14 on dirt this meet (36%), #2 of 23
    Also today · Jockey R4: Duke Of Orleans 12-1, R5: Wizard Of Westwood 15-1, R9: Stay Bossy 30-1, R10: Uncle Happy 30-1 · Trainer R3: The Moe Show 20-1, this race: Ryne Sandberg 20-1, R9: Stay Bossy 30-1

    Unraced, so the works and the connections are the whole story. Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Tough Sunday and Macalla breeding.

    EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 5 works in 30d, last 5d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Tough Sunday out of Macalla (Lonhro)
    Trainer S. Miyadi: 1st-time starters: 9% wins, 38% in the money (81 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 4% wins, 29% in the money (49 starts) · Maiden special weights: 11% wins, 45% in the money (180 starts)
    Jockey M. Americano in sprints: 88 wins from 372 (24%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/26SA5f1:03.80handily25/28
    10/21SA5f1:02.00handily9/13from gate
    10/15SA5f1:01.80handily5/9
    10/10SA4f:50.00handily16/20
    10/5SA4f:51.80handily20/21
  11. 11M C DreamsA. Bautista · J. BondeBautista · Bonde?6-1Fair 15-16%—Debut?

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?

    Jockey Alfredo L Bautista 19% career 0-for-22 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jeff Bonde 28% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)
    Also today · Jockey R5: Come Out Fighting 20-1 · Trainer R9: Ember Royale 6-5

    In the morning works, worked 4F in :47.60 on Oct 1, 3rd fastest of 37 that morning. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 1).

    EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

    Last three races

    First start. By Halladay out of Shes All Wound Up (Coil)
    Trainer J. Bonde: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 39% in the money (57 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 22% wins, 42% in the money (36 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 42% in the money (78 starts)
    Jockey A. Bautista in sprints: 18 wins from 184 (10%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/25SA4f:47.20handily6/111
    10/15SA5f1:00.60handily4/25
    10/8SA5f1:01.60handily9/19
    10/1SA4f:47.60handily3/37from gate
    9/24SA4f:50.80handily21/26

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART5 1/2 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn

SANTA ANITA PARK · RACE 7

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field
11 runners
Purse
$65,000
Post
7:00 PM ET
Pace
Tactical / Honest
Card model top pick
#3 · 27%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.64

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Swift Appeal (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 80. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #10 Calvin Graham at 5-1. Use #1 Freddie Blassie in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #3 SWIFT APPEAL (5-2) — our number agrees.
  • #3 SWIFT APPEAL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.2% to their 22.5%).
  • #10 CALVIN GRAHAM — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.7%, they've got 13.1%.
  • #1 FREDDIE BLASSIE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.1% to their 11.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #10 CALVIN GRAHAM — we make it 15.7%, the morning line works out to 13.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #9 High Hull Gill; pressure from #3 Swift Appeal.

Lead
9High Hull Gill943Swift Appeal92
Press
none
Stalk
none
Close
none
No style yet
6Fully Favorable891Freddie Blassie2Beat The Man4One Punch Wonder5Trojans Forever7So Cal Notte8Ryne Sandberg10Calvin Graham11M C Dreams

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

9
High Hull Gill
94
3
Swift Appeal
92

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

6
Fully Favorable
17
9
High Hull Gill
17
3
Swift Appeal
11
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