R7 Woodbine · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

5:05 PM ET · 7 Furlongs Dirt · $71,700 · 6 runners5:05 PM · 7f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $72K · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Connect the Empire▼▲S. Civaci · M. CasseCivaci · CasseB63 696-1Fair 8-110%—63 69B▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 81▲ Rider upgrade (33% vs 18%) cutting back to a sprint
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 63 69
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 81▲ Rider upgrade (33% vs 18%) cutting back to a sprint
Jockey Sahin Civaci 40% career ★ 5-for-23 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 29 · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 8-for-38 on dirt this meet (21%) ★ hot
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden opt clm today.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 0)
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 6d back
RECORD Sahin Civaci from post 1 here: 45 wins, 120 top-3 in 202 rides · 23% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 WO 1¼m T MSW 7th/7 -6¾L 63 8.4-1 b L Bit rank; forced pace
8/9 WO 6f D MSW 5th/8 -5½L 69 1.4-1 b L Jostled st;had little

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	WO	1¼m T	MSW	7th/7 -6¾L	63	8.4-1	b L	Bit rank; forced pace
8/9	WO	6f D	MSW	5th/8 -5½L	69	1.4-1	b L	Jostled st;had little

2TranquilloJ. Alderson · M. DepauloAlderson · DepauloB66 70 85▼▼-10@trip 8510-1Fair 8-112%▼▼ Big drop -1066 70 85@trip 85B2

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 70 85

Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career ★ 6-for-27 on dirt this meet (22%), #2 of 29 · Trainer Michael P Depaulo

Also today · Jockey R2: O Wow 3-1, R5: Celestial Heart 12-1, R8: Volcanic 10-1, R9: Twenty Ovas 15-1 · Trainer R2: Aussie Hyper 8-1

Jky 13/94 from post 2

Changes barns, from Barbara J Minshall to Michael P Depaulo. Purse goes from $53,600 to $71,700, a step up.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 75 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 2 here: 13 wins, 35 top-3 in 94 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	WO	1m T	Moc25000c	4th/10 -4L	66	2.9-1	L	Evenly thru-out;minors
9/11	WO	6½f D	Moc25000	2nd/4 -½L	70	0.3-1	L	Duel turn/str;denied
8/23	WO	7f D	Moc25000	2nd/6 -2½L	85	1.5-1	L	Clsd late;not in time

3Can't Tie Me DownK. Nicholls · P. DixonNicholls · DixonA74 823-1Fair 5-117%—74 82A
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 74 82
Jockey Keveh Nicholls 30% career 6-for-41 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Patrick Dixon 28% career 0-for-21 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Field Hockey 2-1, R5: Runner Eyes 1-1, R8: Banker's Hours 20-1 · Trainer R2: Holiday With Amy 2-1, R5: Waheela 6-1, this race: Proud Painter 9-2
CLASS UP
Finished 2nd in a 6-horse race at WO, beaten ¾ length. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 7 furlongs.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago
RECORD Keveh Nicholls from post 3 here: 20 wins, 63 top-3 in 145 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 WO 6f D Moc40000 2nd/6 -¾L 74 1.9-1 L Look room4W3/16;up2nd
8/20 WO 6f D Moc25000 2nd/6 -1½L 82 12-1 L 3W1/8grinding;lost nod
4Prime EdgeF. Aebly · J. CarrollAebly · CarrollA74 75 87▼-6@trip 782-1Fair 7-223%▼ Down -674 75 87@trip 78A3
Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 75 87
Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 16-for-90 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Josie Carroll 38% career ★ 8-for-26 on dirt this meet (31%), #3 of 37
Also today · Jockey R1: Big Lew 5-2, R2: Foxy Diva 8-1, R3: Winning Agenda 2-1, R4: Gelato 4-1 +2 more
180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Returns from a 180-day break. Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 85 for the next best.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
TROUBLED TRIP Clip early; inside last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d back
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 4 here: 34 wins, 105 top-3 in 265 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/3 WO 7f D MSW 6th/8 -5L 74 2.6-1 b L Clip early; inside
3/18 TP 1 1/16 D MSW 4th/8 -3½L 75 4.0-1 b L Prss wnnr;chased;yield
2/18 TP 1m D MSW 3rd/8 -1L 87 10-1 b L Ins pair 5/16; kept on

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	WO	6f D	Moc40000	2nd/6 -¾L	74	1.9-1	L	Look room4W3/16;up2nd
8/20	WO	6f D	Moc25000	2nd/6 -1½L	82	12-1	L	3W1/8grinding;lost nod

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/3	WO	7f D	MSW	6th/8 -5L	74	2.6-1	b L	Clip early; inside
3/18	TP	1 1/16 D	MSW	4th/8 -3½L	75	4.0-1	b L	Prss wnnr;chased;yield
2/18	TP	1m D	MSW	3rd/8 -1L	87	10-1	b L	Ins pair 5/16; kept on

5Proud PainterE. Flores · P. DixonFlores · DixonA80 67 74▲▲+11@trip 809-2Fair 7-222%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best80 67 74@trip 80A1

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 67 74

Jockey Eswan Flores 32% career 4-for-34 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Patrick Dixon 28% career 0-for-21 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R8: Sunrise Drive 5-2 · Trainer R2: Holiday With Amy 2-1, R5: Waheela 6-1, this race: Can't Tie Me Down 3-1

Maiden through 9 starts. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Swoop5W1/4; 2ndbest), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 7d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Eswan Flores from post 5 here: 15 wins, 56 top-3 in 152 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WO	7f D	Moc40000	2nd/7 -3½L	80	2.8-1	b L	Swoop5W1/4;2ndbest
8/15	WO	1⅛m D	MSW	6th/7 -7L	67	7.0-1	b L	Bit awk brk;press wnnr
7/26	WO	1 1/16 D	MSW	4th/10 -5L	74	15-1	b L	3-8w; best of rest

6Runaway Rocket▼R. Hernandez · K. AttardHernandez · AttardB49 74@trip 495-2Fair 5-117%—49 74@trip 49B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 49 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 74
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career 10-for-54 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Kevin Attard 33% career 6-for-33 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Autobahn Ace 3-1
180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Freshened 243 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Kevin Attard takes over the training from William I Mott.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Rushed inside; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d back
RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 6 here: 45 wins, 116 top-3 in 259 rides · 21% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
3/1 GP 7f D MSW 7th/7 -8¾L 49 2.9-1 L Rushed inside;faltered
1/30 TAM 1 1/16 T MSW 4th/9 by nk 74 1.8-1 b L Rushd;ins;outfnshd str

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/1	GP	7f D	MSW	7th/7 -8¾L	49	2.9-1	L	Rushed inside;faltered
1/30	TAM	1 1/16 T	MSW	4th/9 by nk	74	1.8-1	b L	Rushd;ins;outfnshd str

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$71,700

Post

5:05 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#5 · 22%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 7 Furlongs: 80.07

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Proud Painter (a closer, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 80 · 67 · 74. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Tranquillo at 10-1. Use #4 Prime Edge in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 PRIME EDGE (2-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
#4 PRIME EDGE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (24.1% to their 25.9%).
#6 RUNAWAY ROCKET — our #6 number, about right at the windows (21.4% to their 22.2%).
#3 CAN'T TIE ME DOWN — our #4 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 19.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 TRANQUILLO (10-1) — our fair 8.2% is above the morning line's 7.1%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Connect The Empire; pressure from #6 Runaway Rocket, #4 Prime Edge; the shape helps #2 Tranquillo, #3 Can't Tie Me Down, #4 Prime Edge; and works against #1 Connect The Empire, #6 Runaway Rocket.

Lead

1Connect The Empire986Runaway Rocket91

Press

4Prime Edge952Tranquillo82

Stalk

3Can't Tie Me Down88

5Proud Painter84

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Connect The Empire

Prime Edge

Runaway Rocket

Can't Tie Me Down

Tranquillo

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Proud Painter

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