Pick sheet

Race 11:05 PM Clm 15000b

1 1/16 Mi · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Remarkably Human, is 32% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #5 Remarkably Human ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +3 Blinkers off

Jockey R. Hernandez · Trainer Z. Krczmar · KEE 8: 2-0-2 · Dist 5: 2-0-2 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 80 · 49 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k b	5th/7 -4¼L	72	22-1	b L	Advance 4w;no late bid
8/2	WO	1⅛m D	OC 40k	5th/5 -3½L	76	32-1	b L	Outside foe; weakened
12/12	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k n3l	Won/9	62	3.2-1	b L	Shift in;inside to 1/4

Case: Last out 5th/7 -4¼L in the Clm25000b at WO. Last Brisnet figures 72-76-62. Best at today's distance 80. 2-for-5 at the distance. 2-for-8 at Woodbine. Z. Krczmar / R. Hernandez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #6 Ratings Upgrade ML 5-2 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ► Steady ≡ Steady 69–74

Jockey P. Moran · Trainer N. Nosowenko · KEE 6: 0-2-0 · Dist 5: 0-2-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 80 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 15k n2l	Won/11 by 2	73	3.5-1	b L	2-3w;4-5w str;drove by
9/24	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/9 -7L	74	1.4-1	b L	Stuck behind3/8-1/4
9/4	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/7 -3½L	74	3.4-1	b L	Bumps brk;rallied insd

Case: Last out won in the fClm15000n2l at WO. Last Brisnet figures 73-74-74. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-6 at Woodbine. N. Nosowenko / P. Moran.

Knock: 0-for-5 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #1 Ready to Battle ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 3rd in the fClm15000b at WO. Last Brisnet figures 71-63-76. Best at today's distance 74. 0-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Woodbine. D. Polsinelli / F. Aebly. Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey F. Aebly · Trainer D. Polsinelli · KEE 5: 1-1-1 · Dist 3: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 73 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	6½f T	Clm 15k b	3rd/8 -4½L	71	6.9-1	L	Leapt st;late rail run
9/17	WO	6½f T	Clm 25k b	7th/7 -4½L	63	7.5-1	L	Stalked 3-4w;weakened
8/27	WO	7f D	Clm 25k b	2nd/8 -1½L	76	9.4-1	b L	Brk in air;bid;up 2nd

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #6 · B #1, #2, #3

Angles: #4 Last fig 77 at/above par 77 · #4 Lone speed on early pace

R1 Woodbine · Claiming $15,000

1:05 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $41,300 · 6 runners1:05 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 6 runners

Official $41K · Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Ready to BattleRan 1stF. Aebly · D. PolsinelliAebly · PolsinelliB71 63 76►@trip 737-2Fair 5-116%► Steady71 63 76@trip 73B3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 63 76

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 17-for-99 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Dominic J Polsinelli 17% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Padraig 5-2, R4: Alpha Gamma Girl 2-1, R6: Bunyan 8-5, R7: Kekoa 5-2 +2 more

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK6/9 board here

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6½ furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Jul 11; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 1 here: 44 wins, 122 top-3 in 254 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	6½f T	Clm 15k b	3rd/8 -4½L	71	6.9-1	L	Leapt st;late rail run
9/17	WO	6½f T	Clm 25k b	7th/7 -4½L	63	7.5-1	L	Stalked 3-4w;weakened
8/27	WO	7f D	Clm 25k b	2nd/8 -1½L	76	9.4-1	b L	Brk in air;bid;up 2nd

2Mia MitoleRan 2ndJ. Anderson · M. PatersonAnderson · PatersonB71 71 76►≡@trip 7212-1Fair 30-13%► Steady71 71 76 ≡@trip 72B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–76 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 71 76

Jockey Jodeien Anderson 22% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Marjorie Paterson 16% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

CLASS DROPJky 2/30 from post 2

Drops from $25,000 claiming to $15,000 claiming. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 36 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Jodeien Anderson from post 2 here: 2 wins, 9 top-3 in 30 rides · 4% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/22	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k b	5th/9 -7L	71	84-1	3Wturns;lost minors
10/3	WO	7½f T	OC 40k	9th/9 -4½L	71	52-1	Brief run3W5/16;folded
9/13	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k b	4th/7 -1¼L	76	44-1	Insd;blocked1/8;ran on

3Nile PassageRan 3rdC. Douglas · D. BanachDouglas · BanachB61 75 69▼-4↕@trip 754-1Fair 6-115%▼ Down -461 75 69 ↕@trip 75B

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 75 69

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 11-for-86 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Darwin D Banach 29% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Instant Response 20-1, R4: Makinmommaproud 15-1, R5: Rockfort 10-1, R7: Saugeen 12-1 +1 more

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Last out was 8th, 7¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse $25,000 claiming race at WO. Quick turnaround, just 10 days since the last start.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 18; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 3 here: 8 wins, 22 top-3 in 51 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k b	8th/9 -7¾L	61	39-1	b L	Brk in;chase;wilted1/8
9/24	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k n2l	Won/9	75	6.8-1	b L	Brk out;spurt1/8;held
8/27	WO	1 1/16 D	MCL 10k	Won/9	69	9.2-1	b L	Dictate pace;had more

4Tan Toast▲▲Ran 5thJ. Campos · H. LadauceurCampos · LadauceurA77 72 67▲+5@trip 726-1Fair 8-110%▲ Up +5 · career best77 72 67@trip 72A▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 77▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 72 67

▲ Last fig 77 at/above par 77▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jose Luis Campos 26% career 10-for-58 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Harold Ladauceur

Also today · Jockey R2: Mr. Perfect 10-1, R3: Mrs D 9-5, R7: Magical Factor 7-2, R8: Authentic Gold 20-1 · Trainer R2: Mr. Perfect 10-1, R9: Dreaming Of Kona 10-1

WON LAST3/6 board here

Has moved up each time out, 67 to 72 to 77. Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse $15,000 claiming race at WO.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 65 days ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Jose Luis Campos from post 4 here: 21 wins, 64 top-3 in 191 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	Won/9	77	5.8-1	L	Dictate pace;had more
9/24	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k n2l	4th/9 -3L	72	7.0-1	L	Hop st;evenly;minors
9/5	WO	6½f D	OC 40k	5th/5 -7½L	67	18-1	L	Taken hold;no menace

5Remarkably HumanRan 4thR. Hernandez · Z. KrczmarHernandez · KrczmarA72 76 62▲+3@trip 802-1Fair 2-132%▲ Up +372 76 62@trip 80A1

Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 76 62

Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career ★ 12-for-60 on dirt this meet (20%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Zelko Krczmar

Also today · Jockey R5: Townline Bertie 2-1, R7: King D'Oro 6-1, R8: Speaker's Speech 3-1, R9: Endrick 7-5

CLASS DROP

Owns the highest recent figure here at 80. 2 wins from 5 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 10d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 5 here: 62 wins, 140 top-3 in 275 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k b	5th/7 -4¼L	72	22-1	b L	Advance 4w;no late bid
8/2	WO	1⅛m D	OC 40k	5th/5 -3½L	76	32-1	b L	Outside foe; weakened
12/12	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k n3l	Won/9	62	3.2-1	b L	Shift in;inside to 1/4

6Ratings UpgradeRan 6thP. Moran · N. NosowenkoMoran · NosowenkoA73 74 74►≡@trip 805-2Fair 7-222%► Steady73 74 74 ≡@trip 80A2

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–74 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 74 74

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 17-for-93 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Nicholas Nosowenko 25% career 0-for-18 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R3: Homeawayfromhome 3-1, R4: Dwight 3-1, R5: C C Casino 4-1 +4 more

WON LAST

Winner of an 11-horse $15,000 claiming race at WO last time. Switches from turf to dirt.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

TROUBLED TRIP 2-3w; 4-5w str; drove by last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 136d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 6 here: 37 wins, 102 top-3 in 228 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 15k n2l	Won/11 by 2	73	3.5-1	b L	2-3w;4-5w str;drove by
9/24	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/9 -7L	74	1.4-1	b L	Stuck behind3/8-1/4
9/4	WO	1 1/16 D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/7 -3½L	74	3.4-1	b L	Bumps brk;rallied insd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #5 Remarkably Human, finished 4th.

1st1Ready To BattleWin$5.70Place$3.10Show$2.70Our #3

2nd2Mia MitoleWin—Place$5.50Show$3.80Our #6

3rd3Nile PassageWin—Place—Show$4.50Our #4

4th5Remarkably HumanOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 1

OFFICIAL

Claiming $15,000

Field

6 runners

Purse

$41,300

Post

1:05 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#5 · 32%

Claiming $15,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.73

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #5 Remarkably Human (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 72 · 76 · 62. Backup is #6 Ratings Upgrade at 5-2. Use #1 Ready To Battle in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Ready To Battle (our #3) won · top pick Remarkably Human ran 4th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, —, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#5 REMARKABLY HUMAN	4th
#2	#6 RATINGS UPGRADE	—
#3	#1 READY TO BATTLE	1st
#4	#3 NILE PASSAGE	3rd
#5	#4 TAN TOAST	5th

Actual finish

1st	#1 Ready to Battle	our #3
2nd	#2 Mia Mitole	our #6
3rd	#3 Nile Passage	our #4
4th	#5 Remarkably Human	our #1
5th	#4 Tan Toast	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 REMARKABLY HUMAN (2-1) — our number agrees.
#5 REMARKABLY HUMAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.1% to their 26.4%).
#6 RATINGS UPGRADE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.5% to their 22.7%).
#1 READY TO BATTLE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.3% to their 17.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #4 Tan Toast; pressure from #3 Nile Passage, #5 Remarkably Human.

Lead

none

Press

4Tan Toast873Nile Passage725Remarkably Human721Ready To Battle68

Stalk

none

6Ratings Upgrade742Mia Mitole69

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Tan Toast

Nile Passage

Remarkably Human

Ready To Battle

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ratings Upgrade

Mia Mitole

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