Pick sheet

Race 53:12 PM Moc 40000

5.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Townline Bertie, is 42% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #7 Townline Bertie ML 2-1 Fair 7-5 Model #1 ▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 77 1st-time blinkers

Jockey R. Hernandez · Trainer R. Tiller · KEE 2: 0-0-1 · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 61 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WO	5½f D	MSW	5th/6 -10L	47	3.6-1	L	Brk in;track duo;fold
9/20	WO	5½f D	MSW	3rd/6 -2½L	61	8.0-1	L	Willingly;held 3rd

Case: Last out 5th/6 -10L in the MdSpWt at WO. Last Brisnet figures 47-61. Best at today's distance 61. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Woodbine. R. Tiller / R. Hernandez.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Contender #4 The Pendulumswings ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77 1st-time blinkers

Jockey S. Civaci · Trainer P. Hall · KEE 2: 0-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 69 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	6f D	Moc40000	4th/7 -3L	62	15-1	L	Brsh st;vied btwn;even
9/13	WO	5½f D	Moc40000	3rd/7 -2L	69	20-1	L	Led;duel turn;yielded

Case: Last out 4th/7 -3L in the Moc40000 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 62-69. Best at today's distance 69. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Woodbine. P. Hall / S. Civaci.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #6 C C Casino ML 4-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 First career start. M. Mattine / P. Moran. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey P. Moran · Trainer M. Mattine · Debut

First start. By Gamble's Exchange out of Boogie With Me (Winslow Homer)

Trainer M. Mattine: 1st-time starters: 6% wins, 31% in the money (16 starts) · 2-year-olds: 10% wins, 29% in the money (49 starts)

Jockey P. Moran in sprints: 66 wins from 343 (19%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	WO	4f	:51.40	breezing	45/48	from gate
10/18	WO	5f	1:01.40	breezing	3/20
10/11	WO	4f	:48.60	breezing	34/87
10/4	WO	4f	:50.80	breezing	74/81
9/27	WO	3f	:36.80	breezing	8/13

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #7 · B #3 · ? #1, #5, #6, #8 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #2 Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #3 Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #4 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #7 Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 77

R5 Woodbine · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

3:12 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $71,700 · 7 runners (1 out)3:12 PM · 5½f Dirt · 7 runners (1 out)

Official $72K · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1CandycrestRan 6thJ. Crawford · S. MartinCrawford · Martin?15-1Fair 20-15%—Debut?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey J Crawford 30% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Scott Martin 28% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Aryeh 8-1, R4: Aterya 7-2, R10: Pine Knoll 7-5
Jky 14/81 from post 1
Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Collusion Illusion and Summertime Blues breeding. Tops the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Routine prep: 4 works in 30d, last 9d ago
RECORD J Crawford from post 1 here: 14 wins, 38 top-3 in 81 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Collusion Illusion out of Summertime Blues (Reload)
Trainer S. Martin: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (2 starts)
Jockey J. Crawford in sprints: 36 wins from 191 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 WO 4f :51.20 breezing 33/33
10/16 WO 4f :52.40 breezing 35/35
10/9 WO 5f 1:04.00 breezing 11/12
10/2 WO 4f :48.80 breezing 18/48 from gate
9/25 WO 4f :50.00 breezing 20/27
2My Jaxson Storm▼X. Forde · C. GrantForde · GrantA606-1<1%—60A▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 77
Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 60
▼ Best fig 60 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Xarel Forde 33% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Carlos Grant 32% career ★ 3-for-15 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R6: Arkin 20-1
Jky 11/68 from post 2
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Back to 5½ furlongs off a 7 furlongs race.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 21 days ago
RECORD Xarel Forde from post 2 here: 11 wins, 25 top-3 in 68 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 WO 7f T Moc40000 4th/7 -8L 60 3.2-1 b L Tracked insd; no rally

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	WO	4f	:51.20	breezing	33/33
10/16	WO	4f	:52.40	breezing	35/35
10/9	WO	5f	1:04.00	breezing	11/12
10/2	WO	4f	:48.80	breezing	18/48	from gate
9/25	WO	4f	:50.00	breezing	20/27

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WO	7f T	Moc40000	4th/7 -8L	60	3.2-1	b L	Tracked insd; no rally

3Friday's Grace▼Ran 5thJ. Hoyte · S. OliverreHoyte · OliverreB36 24 28▲▲+10@trip 2420-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best36 24 28@trip 24B▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 24 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 36 24 28

▼ Best fig 36 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Jason Hoyte 23% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Sylvester Oliverre

Also today · Jockey R2: Lawyer Mason 2-1, R9: Diamond Rim 10-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS0/3 board here

Beaten 13 lengths for 6th in a 7-horse race at WO. A 36 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.

EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 7d ago)

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Jason Hoyte from post 3 here: 5 wins, 21 top-3 in 78 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WO	7f T	Moc40000	6th/7 -13L	36	33-1	b L	Outside; dropped back
7/12	WO	5½f D	Moc40000	6th/6 -20L	24	34-1	L	Retreated thru turn
6/21	WO	4½f D	Moc40000	8th/8 -15L	28	30-1	L	Inside;stdy near 7/16

4The Pendulumswings▼Ran 1stS. Civaci · P. HallCivaci · HallA62 69@trip 693-1Fair 7-222%—62 69@trip 69A▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 772
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 69
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Sahin Civaci 40% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Philip Hall 30% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Sunday Finery 6-1
Tops the field on speed figures, a 69 against 61 for the next best. Jockey switch: Prayven Badrie last out, Sahin Civaci today.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 28d ago
RECORD Sahin Civaci from post 4 here: 52 wins, 116 top-3 in 205 rides · 23% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 WO 6f D Moc40000 4th/7 -3L 62 15-1 L Brsh st;vied btwn;even
9/13 WO 5½f D Moc40000 3rd/7 -2L 69 20-1 L Led;duel turn;yielded
5Third and FourRan 3rdD. Moran · J. Leblanc Jr.Moran · Leblanc Jr.?8-1Fair 15-16%—Debut?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey David Moran 32% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John P Jr Leblanc 14% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet
Jky 10/79 from post 5
No race form yet, but on Oct 17 it was 3rd of 50 at 4F (:48.60). There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 17.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago
RECORD David Moran from post 5 here: 10 wins, 29 top-3 in 79 rides · 8% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Signature Red out of Silent Spring (Silent Name)
Trainer J. Leblanc Jr.: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 43% in the money (7 starts) · 2-year-olds: 0% wins, 22% in the money (9 starts)
Jockey D. Moran in sprints: 10 wins from 75 (13%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 WO 5f 1:01.80 breezing 14/20
10/17 WO 4f :48.60 breezing 3/50 from gate
10/11 WO 4f :49.40 breezing 67/87
10/4 WO 4f :48.80 breezing 38/81 from gate
9/26 WO 4f :48.80 breezing 41/70
6C C CasinoRan 4thP. Moran · M. MattineMoran · Mattine?4-1Fair 5-116%—Debut?3
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 17-for-93 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Michael Mattine 26% career 3-for-21 on dirt this meet (14%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Ratings Upgrade 5-2, R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R3: Homeawayfromhome 3-1, R4: Dwight 3-1 +4 more
First career start, by Gamble's Exchange out of Boogie With Me. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 25).
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Pietro Moran from post 6 here: 37 wins, 102 top-3 in 228 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Gamble's Exchange out of Boogie With Me (Winslow Homer)
Trainer M. Mattine: 1st-time starters: 6% wins, 31% in the money (16 starts) · 2-year-olds: 10% wins, 29% in the money (49 starts)
Jockey P. Moran in sprints: 66 wins from 343 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 WO 4f :51.40 breezing 45/48 from gate
10/18 WO 5f 1:01.40 breezing 3/20
10/11 WO 4f :48.60 breezing 34/87
10/4 WO 4f :50.80 breezing 74/81
9/27 WO 3f :36.80 breezing 8/13
7Townline Bertie▼Ran 7thR. Hernandez · R. TillerHernandez · TillerA47 61@trip 612-1Fair 7-542%—47 61@trip 61A▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 771
Card model 42% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 61 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 61
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career ★ 12-for-60 on dirt this meet (20%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Robert P Tiller 33% career ★ 7-for-24 on dirt this meet (29%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Remarkably Human 2-1, R7: King D'Oro 6-1, R8: Speaker's Speech 3-1, R9: Endrick 7-5 · Trainer R9: Yacht Boy 9-2
Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden opt clm is an easier level on paper. 5th last time, 10 lengths back, in a field of 6.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 25 days ago
RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 7 here: 32 wins, 86 top-3 in 190 rides · 21% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 WO 5½f D MSW 5th/6 -10L 47 3.6-1 L Brk in;track duo;fold
9/20 WO 5½f D MSW 3rd/6 -2½L 61 8.0-1 L Willingly;held 3rd
8RockfortRan 2ndC. Douglas · C. BrooksDouglas · Brooks?10-1Fair 12-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 11-for-86 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Cary Brooks 28% career 3-for-6 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Nile Passage 4-1, R2: Instant Response 20-1, R4: Makinmommaproud 15-1, R7: Saugeen 12-1 +1 more
Unraced, with 10 works on record, the first on Aug 22. Worked 4F in :48.60 on Oct 17, 3rd fastest of 50 that morning.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 8d back
RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 8 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 23 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Souper Speedy out of Lady of Moray (Philanthropist)
Trainer C. Brooks: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 25% in the money (8 starts) · 2-year-olds: 9% wins, 27% in the money (11 starts)
Jockey C. Douglas in sprints: 23 wins from 209 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 WO 5f 1:01.80 breezing 14/20
10/17 WO 4f :48.60 breezing 3/50 from gate
10/11 WO 4f :49.40 breezing 67/87
10/4 WO 4f :48.40 breezing 23/81 from gate
9/26 WO 4f :48.80 breezing 41/70

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	WO	5f	1:01.80	breezing	14/20
10/17	WO	4f	:48.60	breezing	3/50	from gate
10/11	WO	4f	:49.40	breezing	67/87
10/4	WO	4f	:48.80	breezing	38/81	from gate
9/26	WO	4f	:48.80	breezing	41/70

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	WO	5f	1:01.80	breezing	14/20
10/17	WO	4f	:48.60	breezing	3/50	from gate
10/11	WO	4f	:49.40	breezing	67/87
10/4	WO	4f	:48.40	breezing	23/81	from gate
9/26	WO	4f	:48.80	breezing	41/70

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #7 Townline Bertie, finished 7th.

1st4The PendulumswingsWin$6.40Place$3.30Show$2.50Our #2

2nd8RockfortWin—Place$3.30Show$3.20Our #4

3rd5Third And FourWin—Place—Show$3.10Our #5

4th6C C CasinoOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 5

OFFICIAL

Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$71,700

Post

3:12 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#7 · 42%

Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.28

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Townline Bertie (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 47 · 61. Backup is #4 The Pendulumswings at 3-1. Use #6 C C Casino in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #2 WON

The Pendulumswings (our #2) won · top pick Townline Bertie ran 7th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (7th)
✗ Our top 3 finished 7th, 1st, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#7 TOWNLINE BERTIE	7th
#2	#4 THE PENDULUMSWINGS	1st
#3	#6 C C CASINO	4th
#4	#8 ROCKFORT	2nd
#5	#5 THIRD AND FOUR	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#4 The Pendulumswings	our #2
2nd	#8 Rockfort	our #4
3rd	#5 Third and Four	our #5
4th	#6 C C Casino	our #3
5th	#3 Friday's Grace	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 TOWNLINE BERTIE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#7 TOWNLINE BERTIE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 32.2%, they've got 26.9%.
#4 THE PENDULUMSWINGS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.2% to their 20.2%).
#6 C C CASINO — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 19.1%, they've got 16.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#7 TOWNLINE BERTIE — we make it 32.2%, the morning line works out to 26.9%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 C C CASINO — we make it 19.1%, the morning line works out to 16.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #4 The Pendulumswings; pressure from #7 Townline Bertie.

Lead

4The Pendulumswings867Townline Bertie82

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

2My Jaxson Storm883Friday's Grace861Candycrest5Third And Four6C C Casino8Rockfort

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

The Pendulumswings

Townline Bertie

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

The Pendulumswings

My Jaxson Storm

Friday's Grace

Townline Bertie

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