Pick sheet

Race 42:42 PM Moc 40000

5.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Alpha Gamma Girl, is 32% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: honest. Speed from #2, #4, #1.

Top pick #1 Alpha Gamma Girl ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 74–83

Jockey F. Aebly · Trainer D. Glennon · KEE 3: 0-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · 64 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	WO	5f T	fsZadracrtaB150k	7th/7 -8L	77	38-1	b	Track btwn;yielded1/8
8/1	WO	5f T	MSW	2nd/6	83	3.1-1	b	Brk in;press;led;duel
7/10	WO	5f T	Moc40000	2nd/6 -2L	74	0.9-1	b	Steady gain1/8;denied

Case: Last out 7th/7 -8L in the fsZadracrtaB150k at WO. Last Brisnet figures 77-83-74. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Woodbine. D. Glennon / F. Aebly.

Knock: Off 64 days. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #2 Dwight ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +13 ↕ Up and down 32–69 ▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey P. Moran · Trainer M. Depaulo · KEE 5: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 70 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	6f T	Moc40000	2nd/5 -2L	69	4.5-1	b L	Even terms1/8;repelled
9/20	WO	6f D	Moc40000	4th/6 by hd	68	6.8-1	b L	Slim lead ins;gave way
9/5	WO	5f T	Moc40000	3rd/6 -3L	67	6.1-1	b L	3Wstr in mix;clear3rd

Case: Last out 2nd in the Moc40000 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 69-68-67. Best at today's distance 70. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Woodbine. M. Depaulo / P. Moran.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #5 Aterya ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ► Steady ★ Best at 5½f dirt: 75 Last out 3rd in the Moc40000 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 67-77-66. Best at today's distance 75. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Woodbine. S. Ceccato / J. Crawford. Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Crawford · Trainer S. Ceccato · KEE 5: 0-2-0 · Dist 3: 0-2-0 · best fig at 5½f dirt 75 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	6f T	Moc40000	3rd/5 -3½L	67	1.6-1	b	Wait3/8;won show duel
9/7	FE	6½f D	sLakeErie150k	3rd/10 -3½L	77	36-1	b	3-p str; held show
8/23	WO	6f D	MSW	5th/7 -8L	66	11-1	b	3w;stdy/alter1/4;faded

Longshot #8 Silver Coast ML 8-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey E. Wilson · Trainer W. Tharrenos · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 5½f dirt 64 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f T	MSW	6th/9 -9½L	63	17-1	b L	Brush brk;3w;lug in1/4
9/26	WO	5½f D	MSW	3rd/7 -8½L	64	9.8-1	b L	Off slow; belated bid

Case: Last out 6th/9 -9½L in the MdSpWt at WO. Last Brisnet figures 63-64. Best at today's distance 64. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Woodbine. W. Tharrenos / E. Wilson.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #2, #5 · B #3, #4, #8 · C #7 · ? #6 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #2 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #3 Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #4 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #7 Best fig 35 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #8 Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 81

R4 Woodbine · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

2:42 PM ET · 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $71,700 · 8 runners2:42 PM · 5½f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $72K · Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Alpha Gamma GirlRan 4thF. Aebly · D. GlennonAebly · GlennonA77 83 74►≡2-1Fair 2-132%► Steady77 83 74 ≡A1
Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 74–83 · Last 3 figs 77 83 74
Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 17-for-99 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Darren C Glennon 16% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Ready To Battle 7-2, R2: Padraig 5-2, R6: Bunyan 8-5, R7: Kekoa 5-2 +2 more
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK6/9 board here
Purse drops from $150,000 to $71,700 against its last start. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 7 (4F in :47.00), 3 works in 30d
RECORD 0 wins, 6 on the board from 9 starts here
RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 1 here: 44 wins, 122 top-3 in 254 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/29 WO 5f T fsZadracrtaB150k 7th/7 -8L 77 38-1 b Track btwn;yielded1/8
8/1 WO 5f T MSW 2nd/6 83 3.1-1 b Brk in;press;led;duel
7/10 WO 5f T Moc40000 2nd/6 -2L 74 0.9-1 b Steady gain1/8;denied

2Dwight▼Ran 5thP. Moran · M. DepauloMoran · DepauloA69 68 67▲▲+13↕@trip 703-1Fair 4-119%▲▲ Big jump +1369 68 67 ↕@trip 70A▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 812

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 32–69 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 69 68 67

▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 17-for-93 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Michael P Depaulo

Also today · Jockey R1: Ratings Upgrade 5-2, R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R3: Homeawayfromhome 3-1, R5: C C Casino 4-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Mo Cookie 9-2, this race: Starship Salute 6-1, R6: Sunny's Rainbow 8-1, R7: Running On Time 20-1

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. 2nd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 5.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 65d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 2 here: 46 wins, 114 top-3 in 223 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	6f T	Moc40000	2nd/5 -2L	69	4.5-1	b L	Even terms1/8;repelled
9/20	WO	6f D	Moc40000	4th/6 by hd	68	6.8-1	b L	Slim lead ins;gave way
9/5	WO	5f T	Moc40000	3rd/6 -3L	67	6.1-1	b L	3Wstr in mix;clear3rd

3Bank Empire▼Ran 7thR. Maragh · J. BeggMaragh · BeggB6210-1Fair 20-15%—62B▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 62
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Romero Ramsay Maragh 27% career 3-for-39 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer James Bentley Begg 30% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Time For Action 7-2, R7: Sedburys Ghost 15-1, R9: Wagner 6-1 · Trainer R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R3: Sunday Finery 6-1, R6: Jolley 20-1, R9: El Alacran 3-1
180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Freshened 686 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Back to 5½ furlongs off a 7 furlongs race.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 19 (4F in :47.60), 2 works in 30d
RECORD Romero Ramsay Maragh from post 3 here: 6 wins, 19 top-3 in 56 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
12/15 AQU 7f D sMdSpWt 6th/8 -3½L 62 28-1 b Ins trn;headed1/4;wknd
4Starship Salute▼Ran 3rdR. Munger · M. DepauloMunger · DepauloB63 75 67▼▼-86-1Fair 8-112%▼▼ Big drop -863 75 67B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 63 75 67
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Ryan Munger 30% career 7-for-42 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Michael P Depaulo
Also today · Jockey R3: Epic Affair 5-2, R6: Happy Marsden 6-1, R7: Tour The City 10-1, R8: Okarito 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Mo Cookie 9-2, this race: Dwight 3-1, R6: Sunny's Rainbow 8-1, R7: Running On Time 20-1
Jockey switch: Fraser Aebly last out, Ryan Munger today. Switches from turf to dirt.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 6d back
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Ryan Munger from post 4 here: 21 wins, 87 top-3 in 182 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 WO 6½f T MSW 5th/6 -2L 63 3.4-1 b L Chased rail turn;faded
8/23 WO 6f D MSW 3rd/7 -2L 75 3.5-1 b L Tight brk;insd;evenly
7/19 WO 6f D MSW 4th/9 67 5.8-1 b L Open up turn;wilted16t

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
12/15	AQU	7f D	sMdSpWt	6th/8 -3½L	62	28-1	b	Ins trn;headed1/4;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	WO	6½f T	MSW	5th/6 -2L	63	3.4-1	b L	Chased rail turn;faded
8/23	WO	6f D	MSW	3rd/7 -2L	75	3.5-1	b L	Tight brk;insd;evenly
7/19	WO	6f D	MSW	4th/9	67	5.8-1	b L	Open up turn;wilted16t

5Aterya★Ran 1stJ. Crawford · S. CeccatoCrawford · CeccatoA67 77 66►@trip 757-2Fair 5-116%► Steady67 77 66@trip 75A★ Best at the trip 753

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 77 66

★ Best at the trip 75

Jockey J Crawford 30% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Sharon Ceccato 31% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Aryeh 8-1, R5: Candycrest 15-1, R10: Pine Knoll 7-5 · Trainer R10: Doadster 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK4/7 board here

Maiden through 8 starts. Beaten 3½ lengths for 3rd in a 5-horse race at WO.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 33d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD J Crawford from post 5 here: 8 wins, 26 top-3 in 90 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	6f T	Moc40000	3rd/5 -3½L	67	1.6-1	b	Wait3/8;won show duel
9/7	FE	6½f D	sLakeErie150k	3rd/10 -3½L	77	36-1	b	3-p str; held show
8/23	WO	6f D	MSW	5th/7 -8L	66	11-1	b	3w;stdy/alter1/4;faded

6MakinmommaproudRan 6thC. Douglas · A. HusbandsDouglas · Husbands?15-1Fair 30-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 11-for-86 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Anthony Husbands 18% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Nile Passage 4-1, R2: Instant Response 20-1, R5: Rockfort 10-1, R7: Saugeen 12-1 +1 more
Debut for a Reload youngster; the sire's listed stud fee is $4,401. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 18.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 14d ago)
RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 6 here: 5 wins, 19 top-3 in 60 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Reload out of Picture Express (Silent Name)
Trainer A. Husbands: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 11% in the money (9 starts)
Jockey C. Douglas in sprints: 23 wins from 209 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/18 WO 4f :49.80 breezing 46/83 from gate
10/4 WO 4f :49.20 breezing 51/81 from gate
9/27 WO 4f :50.80 breezing 14/17
9/20 WO 4f :49.20 breezing 5/16
9/13 WO 4f :49.80 breezing 8/22
7Stormover the Nile▼Ran 8thE. Flores · T. BrookerFlores · BrookerC3520-1Fair 30-13%—35C▼ Best fig 35 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 35
▼ Best fig 35 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Eswan Flores 32% career 5-for-39 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Terry W Brooker 19% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R7: Running On Time 20-1, R10: Tiger Town 12-1
Best recent figure is 35, well under the 81 par for this level. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden opt clm today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 18d ago
RECORD Eswan Flores from post 7 here: 18 wins, 54 top-3 in 148 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 WO 6f D MSW 5th/6 -9½L 35 7.9-1 L Stalk outside; 4w turn
8Silver Coast▼LSRan 2ndE. Wilson · W. TharrenosWilson · TharrenosB63 64@trip 648-1Fair 10-110%—63 64@trip 64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 81LS
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 81LS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career ★ 11-for-53 on dirt this meet (21%), #2 of 31 · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career ★ 10-for-41 on dirt this meet (24%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Kingslayer 10-1, R7: Webslinger 8-1, R8: Uncle Dodo 5-1 · Trainer R9: Endrick 7-5, R10: Pine Knoll 7-5
Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 5½ furlongs. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 64 against a 81 par.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brush brk; 3w; lug in1/4), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 42d ago
RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 8 here: 11 wins, 34 top-3 in 91 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 WO 7f T MSW 6th/9 -9½L 63 17-1 b L Brush brk;3w;lug in1/4
9/26 WO 5½f D MSW 3rd/7 -8½L 64 9.8-1 b L Off slow; belated bid

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/18	WO	4f	:49.80	breezing	46/83	from gate
10/4	WO	4f	:49.20	breezing	51/81	from gate
9/27	WO	4f	:50.80	breezing	14/17
9/20	WO	4f	:49.20	breezing	5/16
9/13	WO	4f	:49.80	breezing	8/22

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WO	6f D	MSW	5th/6 -9½L	35	7.9-1	L	Stalk outside; 4w turn

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #2, #4, #1.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #1 Alpha Gamma Girl, finished 4th.

1st5AteryaWin$18.80Place$7.30Show$3.70Our #3

2nd8Silver CoastWin—Place$8.10Show$5.90Our #5

3rd4Starship SaluteWin—Place—Show$4.20Our #4

4th1Alpha Gamma GirlOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 4

OFFICIAL

Maiden Optional Claiming $40,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$71,700

Post

2:42 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 32%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.28

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Alpha Gamma Girl (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 77 · 83 · 74. Backup is #2 Dwight at 3-1. Use #5 Aterya in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Aterya (our #3) won · top pick Alpha Gamma Girl ran 4th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 5th, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#1 ALPHA GAMMA GIRL	4th
#2	#2 DWIGHT	5th
#3	#5 ATERYA	1st
#4	#4 STARSHIP SALUTE	3rd
#5	#8 SILVER COAST	2nd

Actual finish

1st	#5 Aterya	our #3
2nd	#8 Silver Coast	our #5
3rd	#4 Starship Salute	our #4
4th	#1 Alpha Gamma Girl	our #1
5th	#2 Dwight	our #2

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 ALPHA GAMMA GIRL (2-1) — our number agrees.
#1 ALPHA GAMMA GIRL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.1% to their 26.4%).
#2 DWIGHT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 19.8%).
#5 ATERYA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.9% to their 17.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Dwight; pressure from #4 Starship Salute, #1 Alpha Gamma Girl; the shape helps #1 Alpha Gamma Girl, #5 Aterya; and works against #2 Dwight, #3 Bank Empire, #4 Starship Salute.

Lead

2Dwight894Starship Salute86

Press

1Alpha Gamma Girl96

Stalk

5Aterya85

8Silver Coast85

No style yet

7Stormover The Nile973Bank Empire926Makinmommaproud

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Alpha Gamma Girl

Dwight

Starship Salute

Aterya

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Silver Coast

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / 0.20 PICK 4 (RACES 4-5-6-7)/ $1 SWINGER

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