Pick sheet

Race 63:42 PM Md Sp Wt

8.3F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Bunyan, is 38% to win (morning line implies 31%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #3 Bunyan ML 8-5 Fair 8-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 79 1st-time blinkers

Jockey F. Aebly · Trainer K. Attard · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1 1/16 T	rCupSaucerB300k	3rd/10 -4¼L	81	1.8-1	L	Closed belatedly 3rd
9/13	WO	7f T	MSW	3rd/11 -6½L	81	3.5-1	L	3-4w turn;late gain 6w

Case: Last out 3rd in the rCupSaucerB300k at WO. Last Brisnet figures 81-81. K. Attard / F. Aebly.

Knock: Never raced at Woodbine.

Contender #7 Time For Action ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey R. Maragh · Trainer M. Casse · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1m T	MSW	3rd/12 -4½L	75	3.6-1	L	5W1/8no match;lost2nd
5/25	CD	5½f D	MSW	3rd/8 -9½L	69	8.0-1		3p;5p upr;rally;outkck

Case: Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at WO. Last Brisnet figures 75-69. M. Casse / R. Maragh.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1m). Never raced at Woodbine.

Use #6 Vintage Velocity ML 9-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +32 · career best Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at WO. Last Brisnet figures 78-61-32. 0-for-1 at Woodbine. G. Cox / P. Moran. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey P. Moran · Trainer G. Cox · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	WO	7f D	MSW	3rd/11 -9L	78	4.8-1	Bothered brk; gaining
9/5	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	9th/10 -11L	61	53-1	2-3p1st;ins2nd;no kick
8/16	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	10th/10 -32L	32	21-1	Rank 3w 1st & 7/16

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #6 · B #1, #7, #8 · C #5, #9 · ? #2 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #3 Last fig 81 at/above par 79 · #5 Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #7 Lone speed on early pace · #9 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

R6 Woodbine · Maiden Special Weight

3:42 PM ET · 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt · $125,500 · 8 runners (1 out)3:42 PM · 8.3f Dirt · 8 runners (1 out)

Official $126K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Arkin▼X. Forde · A. CameronForde · CameronB61 5820-1<1%—61 58B▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 61 58
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Xarel Forde 33% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Amanda J Cameron 25% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: My Jaxson Storm 6-1
Switches from turf to dirt. Beaten 12 lengths for 11th in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at WO.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 9d ago
RECORD Xarel Forde from post 1 here: 7 wins, 24 top-3 in 60 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 WO 1m T MSW 11th/12 -12L 61 105-1 b L Hop st;never factored
9/13 WO 7f T MSW 11th/11 -15L 58 116-1 b Bump foe brk;3-4w turn
2Happy MarsdenRan 4thR. Munger · C. Day-PhillipsMunger · Day-Phillips?6-1Fair 8-111%—Debut?
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Ryan Munger 30% career 7-for-42 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Catheri Day-Phillips 1-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Epic Affair 5-2, R4: Starship Salute 6-1, R7: Tour The City 10-1, R8: Okarito 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Kekoa 5-2, R7: Weller Green 5-1
First career start, by Charlatan out of Dixie Chicken. This barn has 37 first-time starters on record and wins 14% of them.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago
RECORD Ryan Munger from post 2 here: 36 wins, 98 top-3 in 202 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Charlatan out of Dixie Chicken (Rahy)
Trainer C. Day-Phillips: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 38% in the money (37 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 7% wins, 33% in the money (27 starts) · Maiden special weights: 14% wins, 39% in the money (103 starts)
Jockey R. Munger in routes: 15 wins from 67 (22%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 WO 5f 1:01.00 breezing 3/8
10/10 WO 4f :47.80 breezing 6/72 from gate
10/3 WO 5f 1:00.40 breezing 6/32
9/26 WO 4f :48.80 breezing 41/70
9/19 WO 5f 1:01.20 breezing 14/22
3Bunyan▲Ran 1stF. Aebly · K. AttardAebly · AttardA81 818-5Fair 8-538%—81 81A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 791
Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 81 81
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 79
Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 17-for-99 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Kevin Attard 33% career 6-for-35 on dirt this meet (17%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Ready To Battle 7-2, R2: Padraig 5-2, R4: Alpha Gamma Girl 2-1, R7: Kekoa 5-2 +2 more
Runs for $125,500 today after a $300,000 race last time. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)
RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 3 here: 39 wins, 109 top-3 in 249 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 WO 1 1/16 T rCupSaucerB300k 3rd/10 -4¼L 81 1.8-1 L Closed belatedly 3rd
9/13 WO 7f T MSW 3rd/11 -6½L 81 3.5-1 L 3-4w turn;late gain 6w
4Sunny's RainbowRan 2ndL. Contreras · M. DepauloContreras · DepauloA75 838-1Fair 12-17%—75 83A
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 75 83
Jockey Luis Contreras 28% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Michael P Depaulo
Also today · Trainer R3: Mo Cookie 9-2, R4: Dwight 3-1, R4: Starship Salute 6-1, R7: Running On Time 20-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEJky 7/57 from post 4
Tops the field on speed figures, an 83 against 81 for the next best. Purse drops from $300,000 to $125,500 against its last start.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class. (early-speed points: 4)
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Checked; brief run8W1/4), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 7d ago)
RECORD Luis Contreras from post 4 here: 7 wins, 28 top-3 in 57 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 WO 1 1/16 T rCupSaucerB300k 7th/10 -4½L 75 15-1 b L Checked;brief run8W1/4
9/13 WO 7f T MSW 2nd/11 83 19-1 b L Shook clear; no match
5Tiz a Quest▼Ran 7thJ. Alderson · R. HaldenAlderson · HaldenC5920-1Fair 30-13%—59C▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 59
▼ Best fig 59 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career ★ 7-for-32 on dirt this meet (22%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Rachel Halden 24% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R9: Yacht Boy 9-2, R10: Shakoo Makoo 6-1 · Trainer R7: Magical Factor 7-2
LASIX 1ST
Finished 10th in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at WO, beaten 14 lengths. A longer trip: 7 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Btwn 2-3w; swung 5wd), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 14 days ago
RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 5 here: 8 wins, 30 top-3 in 93 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/13 WO 7f T MSW 10th/11 -14L 59 9.8-1 Btwn 2-3w;swung 5wd
6Vintage VelocityRan 5thP. Moran · G. CoxMoran · CoxA78 61 32▲▲+329-2Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +32 · career best78 61 32A3
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +32 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 61 32
Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 17-for-93 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Gail Cox 42% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Ratings Upgrade 5-2, R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R3: Homeawayfromhome 3-1, R4: Dwight 3-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Epic Affair 5-2
New trainer: Kenneth G McPeek had it last time, Gail Cox now. Figures are climbing: 32, 61, 78 over its last three.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 8d ago
RECORD Pietro Moran from post 6 here: 37 wins, 102 top-3 in 228 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 WO 7f D MSW 3rd/11 -9L 78 4.8-1 Bothered brk; gaining
9/5 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 9th/10 -11L 61 53-1 2-3p1st;ins2nd;no kick
8/16 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 10th/10 -32L 32 21-1 Rank 3w 1st & 7/16
7Time For Action▲Ran 8thR. Maragh · M. CasseMaragh · CasseB75 697-2Fair 5-117%—75 69B▲ Lone speed on early pace2
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 75 69
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Romero Ramsay Maragh 27% career 3-for-39 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Bank Empire 10-1, R7: Sedburys Ghost 15-1, R9: Wagner 6-1 · Trainer this race: Kingslayer 10-1, R7: Tour The City 10-1, R7: Webslinger 8-1, R8: Play It Again 7-2 +1 more
Gets a new rider, Romero Ramsay Maragh replacing Sahin Civaci. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5W1/8no match; lost2nd), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago
RECORD Romero Ramsay Maragh from post 7 here: 1 win, 17 top-3 in 49 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 WO 1m T MSW 3rd/12 -4½L 75 3.6-1 L 5W1/8no match;lost2nd
5/25 CD 5½f D MSW 3rd/8 -9½L 69 8.0-1 3p;5p upr;rally;outkck
8KingslayerRan 3rdE. Wilson · M. CasseWilson · CasseB7510-1Fair 15-17%—75B
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 75
Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career ★ 11-for-53 on dirt this meet (21%), #2 of 31 · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Silver Coast 8-1, R7: Webslinger 8-1, R8: Uncle Dodo 5-1 · Trainer this race: Time For Action 7-2, R7: Tour The City 10-1, R7: Webslinger 8-1, R8: Play It Again 7-2 +1 more
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 18, in :47.80.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 18; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 8 here: 11 wins, 34 top-3 in 91 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 WO 1m T MSW 4th/12 -7¾L 75 6.5-1 L 7P1/4;late charge rail
9Jolley▼Ran 6thK. Nicholls · J. BeggNicholls · BeggC68 4120-1Fair 50-12%—68 41C▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 68 41
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Keveh Nicholls 30% career 7-for-47 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer James Bentley Begg 30% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R9: El Alacran 3-1 · Trainer R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R3: Sunday Finery 6-1, R4: Bank Empire 10-1, R9: El Alacran 3-1
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
112 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Best recent figure is 68, well under the 79 par for this level.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 14d ago
RECORD Keveh Nicholls from post 9 here: 8 wins, 22 top-3 in 57 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/12 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 7th/10 -10L 68 29-1 b 3w upper; no response
5/24 BAQ 5½f D MSW 5th/6 -19L 41 20-1 b Rough st;chck7/16;easd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1m T	MSW	11th/12 -12L	61	105-1	b L	Hop st;never factored
9/13	WO	7f T	MSW	11th/11 -15L	58	116-1	b	Bump foe brk;3-4w turn

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	WO	5f	1:01.00	breezing	3/8
10/10	WO	4f	:47.80	breezing	6/72	from gate
10/3	WO	5f	1:00.40	breezing	6/32
9/26	WO	4f	:48.80	breezing	41/70
9/19	WO	5f	1:01.20	breezing	14/22

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1 1/16 T	rCupSaucerB300k	7th/10 -4½L	75	15-1	b L	Checked;brief run8W1/4
9/13	WO	7f T	MSW	2nd/11	83	19-1	b L	Shook clear; no match

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	WO	7f T	MSW	10th/11 -14L	59	9.8-1		Btwn 2-3w;swung 5wd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1m T	MSW	4th/12 -7¾L	75	6.5-1	L	7P1/4;late charge rail

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/12	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	7th/10 -10L	68	29-1	b	3w upper; no response
5/24	BAQ	5½f D	MSW	5th/6 -19L	41	20-1	b	Rough st;chck7/16;easd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Bunyan, won.

1st3BunyanWin$4.30Place$2.90Show$2.20Our #1

2nd4Sunny's RainbowWin—Place$5.40Show$4.00Our #5

3rd8KingslayerWin—Place—Show$3.70Our #6

4th2Happy MarsdenOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 6

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

9 runners

Purse

$125,500

Post

3:42 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#3 · 38%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 100.13

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Bunyan (a closer, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 81 · 81. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Time For Action at 7-2. Use #6 Vintage Velocity in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Bunyan won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)

What didn't

✗ Our top 3 finished 1st, 8th, 5th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 BUNYAN	1st
#2	#7 TIME FOR ACTION	8th
#3	#6 VINTAGE VELOCITY	5th
#4	#2 HAPPY MARSDEN	4th
#5	#4 SUNNY'S RAINBOW	2nd

Actual finish

1st	#3 Bunyan	our #1
2nd	#4 Sunny's Rainbow	our #5
3rd	#8 Kingslayer	our #6
4th	#2 Happy Marsden	our #4
5th	#6 Vintage Velocity	our #3

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 BUNYAN (8-5) — our number agrees.
#3 BUNYAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.7% to their 30.1%).
#7 TIME FOR ACTION — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.7% to their 17.4%).
#6 VINTAGE VELOCITY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.0% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #4 Sunny's Rainbow.

Lead

4Sunny's Rainbow73

Press

none

Stalk

7Time For Action89

3Bunyan826Vintage Velocity69

No style yet

8Kingslayer805Tiz A Quest781Arkin779Jolley712Happy Marsden

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Time For Action

Sunny's Rainbow

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Bunyan

Vintage Velocity

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

ROLLING DOUBLE / EXACTA / 0.20 TRIFECTA / 0.20 SUPERFECTA

0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 6-7-8)/0.20 PICK 5 (RACES 6-7-8-9-10)/ $1 SWINGER

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