Pick sheet

Race 74:12 PM OClm 50000n2xLate Pick 4 starts

1 1/16 Mi · Turf · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Kekoa, is 26% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Kekoa ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 87–89 ▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 87

Jockey F. Aebly · Trainer C. Day-Phillips · KEE 8: 1-5-0 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	2nd/6 -1½L	89	2.9-1	b L	Waited;rally btwn16th
9/20	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	2nd/5	87	2.2-1	b L	Brk out;no match late
8/30	WO	7f D	ElginB200k	6th/11 -10L	87	3.0-1	b L	Clip early; tight 5/8

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC50000n2x at WO. Last Brisnet figures 89-87-87. Best at today's distance 90. 1-for-8 at Woodbine. C. Day-Phillips / F. Aebly.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #7 Magical Factor ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲ Up +6 ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 87

Jockey J. Campos · Trainer R. Halden · KEE 2: 1-0-1 · Dist 1: 1-0-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 85 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	3rd/6 -1½L	87	3.5-1	L	Pounce4W1/4;faded16th
9/11	WO	7½f T	OC 32k n1x	Won/6 by 1½	84	0.9-1	L	3w1/4;wore down foe
8/15	WO	1¼m D	rKingsPltB1000k	11th/12 -9¼L	71	11-1	L	Bid1/4pole;folded1/8th

Case: Last out 3rd in the OC50000n2x at WO. Last Brisnet figures 87-84-71. Best at today's distance 91. 1-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Woodbine. R. Halden / J. Campos.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #2 King D'oro ML 6-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +4 ≡ Steady 84–92 ▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 87 Last out 3rd in the OC50000n2x at WO. Last Brisnet figures 91-84-92. Best at today's distance 92. 2-for-8 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Woodbine. D. MacRae / R. Hernandez. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey R. Hernandez · Trainer D. MacRae · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 8: 2-2-2 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 86 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	1⅛m D	OC 50k n2x	3rd/6 -2½L	91	2.4-1	b L	Willingly btwn;won3rd
9/6	WO	-9f T	OC 50k n2x	5th/6 -2½L	84	1.2-1	b L	4Winmix1/4;bobbled16th
7/25	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 32k n1x	Won/10 by 1½	92	4.3-1	b L	2-3p;came out 1/8

Longshot #1 Tosen Wish ML 12-1 Fair 12-1 Model #6 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +9 ▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 87

Jockey P. Moran · Trainer S. Bryant · KEE 6: 2-2-0 · Dist 2: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 92 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 32k n1xc	Won/10 by 3	92	1.6-1	L	7w1/4;duel;bother foe
8/14	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 50k n2x	7th/8 -7L	80	9.9-1	L	Inside;angled;no kick
7/5	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 75k b	6th/8 -4¼L	84	16-1	L	Ins;2w1/4p; weakened

Case: Last out won in the OC32000n1xc at WO. Last Brisnet figures 92-80-84. Best at today's distance 92. 0-for-2 at the distance. 2-for-6 at Woodbine. S. Bryant / P. Moran.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #6, #8, #10 · B #1, #2, #7 · C #3, #4, #5, #9

Angles: #1 Last fig 92 at/above par 87 · #2 Last fig 91 at/above par 87 · #5 Last fig 90 at/above par 87 · #6 Last fig 89 at/above par 87 · #7 Last fig 87 at/above par 87 · #8 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 91) · #10 Last fig 92 at/above par 87

R7 Woodbine · Optional Claiming $50,000

4:12 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $128,200 · 10 runners4:12 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 10 runners

Official $128K · Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Tosen Wish▲LSRan 7thP. Moran · S. BryantMoran · BryantB92 80 84▲▲+9@trip 9212-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +992 80 84@trip 92B▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 87LS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 80 84

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 87LS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 15-for-79 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Steve Bryant 30% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ratings Upgrade 5-2, R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R3: Homeawayfromhome 3-1, R4: Dwight 3-1 +4 more

CLASS DROPWON LAST4/8 board here

Comes in off a victory in a 10-horse optional claiming race at WO. New trainer: Mark Casse had it last time, Steve Bryant now.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 7w1/4; duel; bother foe. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 7d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 1 here: 46 wins, 112 top-3 in 205 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 32k n1xc	Won/10 by 3	92	1.6-1	L	7w1/4;duel;bother foe
8/14	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 50k n2x	7th/8 -7L	80	9.9-1	L	Inside;angled;no kick
7/5	CNL	1⅛m T	OC 75k b	6th/8 -4¼L	84	16-1	L	Ins;2w1/4p; weakened

2King D'oro▲Ran 3rdR. Hernandez · D. MacRaeHernandez · MacRaeB91 84 92▲+4≡@trip 866-1Fair 6-114%▲ Up +491 84 92 ≡@trip 86B▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 873

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 84–92 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 84 92

▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 87

Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career ★ 11-for-53 on turf this meet (21%), #2 of 26 · Trainer Donald C Macrae 1-for-7 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Remarkably Human 2-1, R5: Townline Bertie 2-1, R8: Speaker's Speech 3-1, R9: Endrick 7-5

Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Has run 92 against a 87 par for the class.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 2 here: 76 wins, 154 top-3 in 281 rides · 21% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	1⅛m D	OC 50k n2x	3rd/6 -2½L	91	2.4-1	b L	Willingly btwn;won3rd
9/6	WO	-9f T	OC 50k n2x	5th/6 -2½L	84	1.2-1	b L	4Winmix1/4;bobbled16th
7/25	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 32k n1x	Won/10 by 1½	92	4.3-1	b L	2-3p;came out 1/8

3Running on TimeRan 10thE. Flores · M. DepauloFlores · DepauloC73 88 73▼▼-920-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -973 88 73C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 73 88 73

Jockey Eswan Flores 32% career 1-for-19 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Michael P Depaulo

Also today · Jockey R4: Stormover The Nile 20-1, R10: Tiger Town 12-1 · Trainer R3: Mo Cookie 9-2, R4: Dwight 3-1, R4: Starship Salute 6-1, R6: Sunny's Rainbow 8-1

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 28/159 from post 3

Off 64 days since the last start. Worked 5F in 1:01.20 on Oct 10, 3rd of 9 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Eswan Flores from post 3 here: 28 wins, 60 top-3 in 159 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	WO	1m T	TorontoCp Stk	6th/7 -4L	73	7.6-1	L	Moved 4w1/4;flattened
8/16	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 50k n2l	Won/6	88	5.0-1	L	Drewoff with authority
7/6	WO	7f D	OC 50k n2l	4th/6 -1½L	73	4.3-1	L	Force pace outs;weaken

4SaugeenRan 9thC. Douglas · J. CarrollDouglas · CarrollC83 81 94►12-1Fair 15-16%► Steady83 81 94C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 83 81 94

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 8-for-50 on turf this meet (16%) · Trainer Josie Carroll 38% career 2-for-18 on turf this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Nile Passage 4-1, R2: Instant Response 20-1, R4: Makinmommaproud 15-1, R5: Rockfort 10-1 +1 more

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Switches from dirt to turf. Figure of 94 on the record sits above the 87 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 4 here: 7 wins, 23 top-3 in 61 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	WO	1 1/16 D	sCaledonB150k	4th/4 -7½L	83	7.7-1	L	Head cocked;faded1/4
6/27	WO	1⅛m D	DomDay G3	7th/7 -4L	81	6.8-1	L	Chased far turn;falter
5/23	WO	1 1/16 D	OC 32k n1x	Won/7	94	3.8-1	L	Control pace;had more

5Tour the City▲Ran 5thR. Munger · M. CasseMunger · CasseC90 83 71▲+7↕10-1Fair 15-17%▲ Up +790 83 71 ↕C▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 71–94 · Last 3 figs 90 83 71

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 87

Jockey Ryan Munger 30% career 6-for-47 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 15-for-66 on turf this meet (23%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Epic Affair 5-2, R4: Starship Salute 6-1, R6: Happy Marsden 6-1, R8: Okarito 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Time For Action 7-2, R6: Kingslayer 10-1, this race: Webslinger 8-1, R8: Play It Again 7-2 +1 more

5/7 board here

Figures are climbing: 71, 83, 90 over its last three. Gets a new rider, Ryan Munger replacing Fraser Aebly.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 10d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Ryan Munger from post 5 here: 25 wins, 83 top-3 in 197 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	1⅛m D	OC 50k n2x	5th/6 -½L	90	6.0-1	b L	Bid2W1/4;faded70yds
4/24	GP	1m T	OC 62k b	10th/11 -4¼L	83	49-1	b L	2p-inside; no threat
12/27	GP	1 1/16 D	Handicap	8th/8 -7½L	71	7.1-1	b L	Chased 2wd; empty

6Kekoa▲Ran 6thF. Aebly · C. Day-PhillipsAebly · Day-PhillipsA89 87 87►≡5-2Fair 3-126%► Steady89 87 87 ≡A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 871

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 87–89 · Last 3 figs 89 87 87

▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 87

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 10-for-73 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Catheri Day-Phillips 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Ready To Battle 7-2, R2: Padraig 5-2, R4: Alpha Gamma Girl 2-1, R6: Bunyan 8-5 +2 more · Trainer R6: Happy Marsden 6-1, this race: Weller Green 5-1

11/16 board here

Last out was 2nd, 1½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at WO. Best recent figure of 90 sits right around the 87 par.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 8d ago

RECORD 4 wins, 11 on the board from 16 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 6 here: 32 wins, 86 top-3 in 227 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	2nd/6 -1½L	89	2.9-1	b L	Waited;rally btwn16th
9/20	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	2nd/5	87	2.2-1	b L	Brk out;no match late
8/30	WO	7f D	ElginB200k	6th/11 -10L	87	3.0-1	b L	Clip early; tight 5/8

7Magical Factor▲Ran 1stJ. Campos · R. HaldenCampos · HaldenB87 84 71▲+6@trip 857-2Fair 5-116%▲ Up +687 84 71@trip 85B▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 872

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 84 71

▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 87

Jockey Jose Luis Campos 26% career 4-for-35 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Rachel Halden 24% career 3-for-12 on turf this meet (25%), #3 of 25

Also today · Jockey R1: Tan Toast 6-1, R2: Mr. Perfect 10-1, R3: Mrs D 9-5, R8: Authentic Gold 20-1 · Trainer R6: Tiz A Quest 20-1

CLASS UP4/5 board here

Has moved up each time out, 71 to 84 to 87. The Sep 6 work, 4F in :48.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 6; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Jose Luis Campos from post 7 here: 12 wins, 44 top-3 in 160 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	3rd/6 -1½L	87	3.5-1	L	Pounce4W1/4;faded16th
9/11	WO	7½f T	OC 32k n1x	Won/6 by 1½	84	0.9-1	L	3w1/4;wore down foe
8/15	WO	1¼m D	rKingsPltB1000k	11th/12 -9¼L	71	11-1	L	Bid1/4pole;folded1/8th

8Webslinger▼Ran 4thE. Wilson · M. CasseWilson · CasseA81 91 103▼▼-18↕8-1Fair 12-18%▼▼ Big drop -1881 91 103 ↕A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 91)

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 81–103 · Last 3 figs 81 91 103

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 91)

Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career 6-for-51 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career ★ 15-for-66 on turf this meet (23%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Silver Coast 8-1, R6: Kingslayer 10-1, R8: Uncle Dodo 5-1 · Trainer R6: Time For Action 7-2, R6: Kingslayer 10-1, this race: Tour The City 10-1, R8: Play It Again 7-2 +1 more

2 wins from 3 starts at this distance. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 103, with 94 next best.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)

RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 8 here: 11 wins, 34 top-3 in 91 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	5th/6 -6¾L	81	1.6-1	L	Stp slw;lack rally str
5/31	WO	1 1/16 D	Eclipse G2	2nd/8 -4L	91	6.0-1	L	Trailed;closed quickly
9/7	CNL	1½m T	ClonialCpB150k	2nd/4	103	0.8-1		Well held;no answer

9Sedburys GhostRan 2ndR. Maragh · B. MinshallMaragh · MinshallC84 91 91▼▼-8≡@trip 8215-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -884 91 91 ≡@trip 82C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · ≡ Steady figures 84–93 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 91 91

Jockey Romero Ramsay Maragh 27% career 3-for-33 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Barbara J Minshall 29% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Bank Empire 10-1, R6: Time For Action 7-2, R9: Wagner 6-1 · Trainer R8: Uncle Dodo 5-1, R8: King's Counsel 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK5/10 board here

Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Oct 4 (1:00.20), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 4 (5F in 1:00.20), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Romero Ramsay Maragh from post 9 here: 1 win, 4 top-3 in 15 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2x	4th/6 -5¼L	84	10-1	b L	See field3P1/4;minors
9/19	WO	1 1/16 D	DurhmCup G3	3rd/5 -4L	91	12-1	b L	Force pace1/2;willing
8/30	WO	7f D	ElginB200k	5th/11 -6L	91	6.7-1	b L	Awk brk;late gain 5wd

10Weller Green▲Ran 8thA. Adams · C. Day-PhillipsAdams · Day-PhillipsA92 81 76▲▲+12@trip 925-1Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best92 81 76@trip 92A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 87

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 92 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 81 76

▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 87

Jockey Austin Adams 25% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Catheri Day-Phillips 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%)

Also today · Trainer R6: Happy Marsden 6-1, this race: Kekoa 5-2

7/10 board here

Has run 92 against a 87 par for the class. Has moved up each time out, 76 to 81 to 92.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Jul 26; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 7 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Austin Adams from post 10 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 26 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 32k n1x	2nd/10 -3½L	92	7.5-1	L	Swung 8w;duel;bothered
9/13	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 40k	Won/10	81	3.0-1	L	Swoop4W1/4;drove by
8/2	WO	1¼m D	OC 32k n1x	5th/5 -10L	76	3.3-1	L	Mild run3W5/16;empty

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Kekoa, finished 6th.

1st7Magical FactorWin$7.70Place$4.80Show$3.50Our #2

2nd9Sedburys GhostWin—Place$22.70Show$15.90Our #10

3rd2King D'OroWin—Place—Show$4.80Our #3

4th8WebslingerOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 7

OFFICIAL

Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$128,200

Post

4:12 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#6 · 26%

Claiming $50,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 98.34

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Kekoa (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 89 · 87 · 87. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Magical Factor at 7-2. Use #2 King D'Oro in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #2 WON

Magical Factor (our #2) won · top pick Kekoa ran 6th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 6th, 1st, 3rd

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (6th)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 KEKOA	6th
#2	#7 MAGICAL FACTOR	1st
#3	#2 KING D'ORO	3rd
#4	#10 WELLER GREEN	8th
#5	#8 WEBSLINGER	4th

Actual finish

1st	#7 Magical Factor	our #2
2nd	#9 Sedburys Ghost	our #10
3rd	#2 King d'Oro	our #3
4th	#8 Webslinger	our #5
5th	#5 Tour the City	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 KEKOA (5-2) — our number agrees.
#6 KEKOA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.3% to their 22.3%).
#7 MAGICAL FACTOR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.9% to their 17.3%).
#2 KING D'ORO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.0% to their 11.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Running On Time; pressure from #9 Sedburys Ghost, #4 Saugeen; the shape helps #1 Tosen Wish, #2 King D'Oro, #10 Weller Green; and works against #3 Running On Time, #4 Saugeen, #9 Sedburys Ghost.

Lead

3Running On Time879Sedburys Ghost844Saugeen73

Press

7Magical Factor865Tour The City75

Stalk

6Kekoa858Webslinger77

1Tosen Wish9010Weller Green872King D'Oro71

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Running On Time

Magical Factor

Kekoa

Sedburys Ghost

Webslinger

Tour The City

Saugeen

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Tosen Wish

Weller Green

King D'Oro

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

ROLLING DOUBLE / EXACTA / 0.20 TRIFECTA / 0.20 SUPERFECTA

0.20 PICK 3 (RACES 7-8-9) / 0.20 PICK 4 (RACES 7-8-9-10)/ $1 SWINGER

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.