Pick sheet

Race 32:12 PM Mazarine-G3Early Pick 4 starts

1 1/16 Mi · Dirt · 5 entered. Our model's top pick, Mrs D, is 39% to win (morning line implies 29%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Mrs D ML 9-5 Fair 8-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +6 · career best ▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 84 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey J. Campos · Trainer S. Chircop · KEE 2: 1-1-0 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	5f T	Algnquin G3	Won/6 by 1½	90	7.7-1	b L	Slw st;surge past late
8/15	WO	6½f T	CtchAGlmp Stk	3rd/9 -1L	90	9.7-1	b L	Pressed; lost 2nd late
7/12	WO	5½f D	MyDear Stk	2nd/8	87	3.1-1	b L	Step slow; bump 9/16

Case: Last out won in the Algnquin-G3 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 90-90-87. 1-for-2 at Woodbine. S. Chircop / J. Campos.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6½f).

Contender #1 Epic Affair ML 5-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -3

Jockey R. Munger · Trainer G. Cox · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f D	GlrisSong Stk	2nd/7 -5L	82	4.8-1	L	Rally3P3/16;saved2nd
9/13	WO	7f T	MSW	Won/7	90	2.0-1	L	Push thru3P1/4;easily
8/15	WO	6½f T	CtchAGlmp Stk	5th/9 -3½L	89	14-1	L	Bmpd brk;insd;stdy9/16

Case: Last out 2nd in the fGlrisSongL125k at WO. Last Brisnet figures 82-90-89. 0-for-1 at Woodbine. G. Cox / R. Munger.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 7f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #2 Homeawayfromhome ML 3-1 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲ Up +6 · career best ▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 84 Last out 2nd in the fSelimaB125k at LRL. Last Brisnet figures 78-76-69. Best at today's distance 78. B. Walsh / P. Moran. Knock: Never raced at Woodbine. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey P. Moran · Trainer B. Walsh · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LRL	1 1/16 T	SelimaB125k	2nd/9 -4L	78	4.7-1	b	3w;5w;drft in;stdy lte
8/16	ELP	1m T	MSW	Won/9	76	2.2-1	b	Ins;drift/bmp 1/8;duel
7/10	ELP	5½f T	MSW	3rd/12 by hd	69	5.1-1		Dueled ins;drifted out

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #5 · B #2, #4

Angles: #2 Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #3 Last fig 90 at/above par 84 · #3 Lone speed on early pace · #5 Last fig 85 at/above par 84

R3 Woodbine · Mazarine Stakes (G3)

2:12 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $175,000 · 5 runners2:12 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 5 runners

Official $175K · Mazarine Stakes (G3)

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Epic AffairRan 3rdR. Munger · G. CoxMunger · CoxA82 90 89▼-35-2Fair 4-120%▼ Down -382 90 89A2

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 82 90 89

Jockey Ryan Munger 30% career 7-for-42 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Gail Cox 42% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Starship Salute 6-1, R6: Happy Marsden 6-1, R7: Tour The City 10-1, R8: Okarito 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Vintage Velocity 9-2

Jky 34/177 from post 1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 90. Purse goes from $125,000 to $175,000, a step up.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Ryan Munger from post 1 here: 34 wins, 89 top-3 in 177 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f D	GlrisSong Stk	2nd/7 -5L	82	4.8-1	L	Rally3P3/16;saved2nd
9/13	WO	7f T	MSW	Won/7	90	2.0-1	L	Push thru3P1/4;easily
8/15	WO	6½f T	CtchAGlmp Stk	5th/9 -3½L	89	14-1	L	Bmpd brk;insd;stdy9/16

2Homeawayfromhome▼Ran 5thP. Moran · B. WalshMoran · WalshB78 76 69▲+63-1Fair 9-218%▲ Up +6 · career best78 76 69B▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 843

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 78 76 69

▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 17-for-93 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ratings Upgrade 5-2, R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R4: Dwight 3-1, R5: C C Casino 4-1 +4 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Figures are climbing: 69, 76, 78 over its last three.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 3w; 5w; drft in; stdy lte. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 9d back

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 2 here: 46 wins, 114 top-3 in 223 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LRL	1 1/16 T	SelimaB125k	2nd/9 -4L	78	4.7-1	b	3w;5w;drft in;stdy lte
8/16	ELP	1m T	MSW	Won/9	76	2.2-1	b	Ins;drift/bmp 1/8;duel
7/10	ELP	5½f T	MSW	3rd/12 by hd	69	5.1-1		Dueled ins;drifted out

3Mrs D▲▲Ran 2ndJ. Campos · S. ChircopCampos · ChircopA90 90 87▲+69-5Fair 8-539%▲ Up +6 · career best90 90 87A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 84▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 39% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 90 90 87

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 84▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jose Luis Campos 26% career 10-for-58 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Steven Chircop 30% career 5-for-29 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Tan Toast 6-1, R2: Mr. Perfect 10-1, R7: Magical Factor 7-2, R8: Authentic Gold 20-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST4/4 board here

Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse race at WO. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 5 furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 25 (5F in :59.60), 2 works in 30d

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (2 wins)

RECORD Jose Luis Campos from post 3 here: 24 wins, 74 top-3 in 192 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	5f T	Algnquin G3	Won/6 by 1½	90	7.7-1	b L	Slw st;surge past late
8/15	WO	6½f T	CtchAGlmp Stk	3rd/9 -1L	90	9.7-1	b L	Pressed; lost 2nd late
7/12	WO	5½f D	MyDear Stk	2nd/8	87	3.1-1	b L	Step slow; bump 9/16

4Sunday FineryRan 1stS. Civaci · J. BeggCivaci · BeggB83 81 76▲+7@trip 836-1Fair 8-112%▲ Up +7 · career best83 81 76@trip 83B
Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 81 76
Jockey Sahin Civaci 40% career 5-for-26 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer James Bentley Begg 30% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: The Pendulumswings 3-1 · Trainer R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R4: Bank Empire 10-1, R6: Jolley 20-1, R9: El Alacran 3-1
WON LAST3/4 board here
Winner of a 4-horse maiden special weight race at WO last time. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and stakes gr3 now.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 14 days ago
RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Sahin Civaci from post 4 here: 52 wins, 116 top-3 in 205 rides · 23% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 WO 1 1/16 D MSW Won/4 83 1.0-1 L Nice trip;effortlessly
9/5 WO 6½f D MSW 2nd/8 -3L 81 7.0-1 L Chased determinedly
8/15 WO 6½f T MSW 8th/11 -9¾L 76 6.5-1 L Never contended

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	WO	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/4	83	1.0-1	L	Nice trip;effortlessly
9/5	WO	6½f D	MSW	2nd/8 -3L	81	7.0-1	L	Chased determinedly
8/15	WO	6½f T	MSW	8th/11 -9¾L	76	6.5-1	L	Never contended

5Mo Cookie▲Ran 4thR. Walcott · M. DepauloWalcott · DepauloA85 85 87►≡9-2Fair 7-112%► Steady85 85 87 ≡A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 85–87 · Last 3 figs 85 85 87

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84

Jockey Rico W Walcott 30% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Michael P Depaulo

Also today · Jockey R9: Uncaptured Moment 20-1 · Trainer R4: Dwight 3-1, R4: Starship Salute 6-1, R6: Sunny's Rainbow 8-1, R7: Running On Time 20-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 5/30 from post 5

Switches from turf to dirt. Runs for $175,000 today after a $300,000 race last time.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :45.60 on Sep 27 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Rico W Walcott from post 5 here: 5 wins, 9 top-3 in 30 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1 1/16 T	rCupSaucerB300k	2nd/10 by hd	85	6.6-1	b L	Game effort on lead
9/12	WO	1m T	Natalma G1	8th/11 -8¾L	85	49-1	b	Step slow;insd;8w late
8/15	WO	6½f T	CtchAGlmp Stk	6th/9 -5½L	87	15-1	L	Insd turn;came out str

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Mrs D, finished 2nd.

1st4Sunday FineryWin$9.20Place$4.60Show$2.60Our #5

2nd3Mrs DWin—Place$3.80Show$2.30Our #1

3rd1Epic AffairWin—Place—Show$2.20Our #2

4th5Mo CookieOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Mazarine Stakes (G3)

Field

5 runners

Purse

$175,000

Post

2:12 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#3 · 39%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.73

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Mrs D (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 90 · 90 · 87. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Epic Affair at 5-2. Use #2 Homeawayfromhome in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Mrs D ran 2nd · Sunday Finery won (our #5)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #5)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 MRS D	2nd
#2	#1 EPIC AFFAIR	3rd
#3	#2 HOMEAWAYFROMHOME	5th
#4	#5 MO COOKIE	4th
#5	#4 SUNDAY FINERY	1st

Actual finish

1st	#4 Sunday Finery	our #5
2nd	#3 Mrs D	our #1
3rd	#1 Epic Affair	our #2
4th	#5 Mo Cookie	our #4
5th	#2 Homeawayfromhome	our #3

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 MRS D (9-5) — our number agrees.
#3 MRS D — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.7% to their 29.3%).
#1 EPIC AFFAIR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.3% to their 23.5%).
#2 HOMEAWAYFROMHOME — our #3 number, about right at the windows (21.3% to their 20.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #3 Mrs D; pressure from #5 Mo Cookie, #4 Sunday Finery.

Lead

none

Press

3Mrs D925Mo Cookie904Sunday Finery832Homeawayfromhome79

Stalk

none

1Epic Affair85

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Mrs D

Mo Cookie

Sunday Finery

Homeawayfromhome

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Epic Affair

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