Pick sheet

Race 95:12 PM OClm 32000n1x

6.5F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Endrick, is 48% to win (morning line implies 32%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #1 Endrick ML 7-5 Fair 1-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ★ Best at 6½f dirt: 90 ≡ Steady 86–91

Jockey R. Hernandez · Trainer W. Tharrenos · KEE 7: 3-3-1 · Dist 2: 1-1-0 · best fig at 6½f dirt 90 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WO	7f D	OC 32k n1x	2nd/8	88	1.3-1	L	Well rationed;almost
9/6	WO	7f D	Alw s	Won/7	91	0.8-1	L	Dominant on lead
8/23	WO	5½f D	OC 32k n1x	3rd/7 -1½L	86	1.4-1	L	3Wturn;outfinished70y

Case: Last out 2nd in the OC32000n1x at WO. Last Brisnet figures 88-91-86. Best at today's distance 90. 1-for-2 at the distance. 3-for-7 at Woodbine. W. Tharrenos / R. Hernandez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #4 El Alacran ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +9

Jockey K. Nicholls · Trainer J. Begg · KEE 10: 5-0-2 · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6½f dirt 86 · 31 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	WO	6½f D	Alw s	Won/7	86	1.2-1	b L	Strong lead;had plenty
9/12	WO	6f D	Clm 15k	Won/6	84	3.1-1	b L	Dictate pace;kept on
8/21	WO	6f T	Clm 25k	8th/9 -5¼L	67	5.9-1	b L	Btwn;chk'd 5/8;swung7w

Case: Last out won in the Alw7500s at WO. Last Brisnet figures 86-84-67. Best at today's distance 86. 1-for-2 at the distance. 5-for-10 at Woodbine. J. Begg / K. Nicholls.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #6 Yacht Boy ML 9-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -6 Last out 2nd in the OC32000n1x at WO. Last Brisnet figures 81-87-82. Best at today's distance 89. 2-for-8 at the distance. 3-for-22 at Woodbine. R. Tiller / J. Alderson. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Alderson · Trainer R. Tiller · KEE 22: 3-10-4 · Dist 8: 2-3-1 · best fig at 6½f dirt 89 · 16 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	WO	6f D	OC 32k n1x	2nd/6 -4L	81	3.0-1	L	Brk out badly;2nd best
9/27	WO	7f D	OC 32k n1x	3rd/8 -5L	87	5.3-1	L	Floated7Wstr;kept on
8/9	WO	6½f D	OC 32k n1x	3rd/5 -5¼L	82	2.5-1	L	Bump brk; gained show

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #4 · B #2, #6, #8 · C #5, #7

Angles: #5 Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 90 · #7 Best fig 85 is 5+ under today's par 90

R9 Woodbine · Optional Claiming $32,000

5:12 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $125,000 · 8 runners5:12 PM · 6½f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $125K · Optional Claiming $32,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Endrick★Ran 4thR. Hernandez · W. TharrenosHernandez · TharrenosA88 91 86►≡@trip 907-5Fair 6-548%► Steady88 91 86 ≡@trip 90A★ Best at the trip 901
Card model 48% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 86–91 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 91 86
★ Best at the trip 90
Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career ★ 12-for-60 on dirt this meet (20%), #3 of 31 · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career ★ 10-for-41 on dirt this meet (24%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Remarkably Human 2-1, R5: Townline Bertie 2-1, R7: King D'Oro 6-1, R8: Speaker's Speech 3-1 · Trainer R4: Silver Coast 8-1, R10: Pine Knoll 7-5
7/7 board here
Tops the field on speed figures, a 95 against 91 for the next best. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 2d ago
RECORD On the board in all 7 starts here (3 wins)
RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 1 here: 63 wins, 143 top-3 in 262 rides · 21% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 WO 7f D OC 32k n1x 2nd/8 88 1.3-1 L Well rationed;almost
9/6 WO 7f D Alw s Won/7 91 0.8-1 L Dominant on lead
8/23 WO 5½f D OC 32k n1x 3rd/7 -1½L 86 1.4-1 L 3Wturn;outfinished70y

2WagnerRan 1stR. Maragh · S. PionMaragh · PionB80 88 81►@trip 856-1Fair 12-17%► Steady80 88 81@trip 85B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 88 81

Jockey Romero Ramsay Maragh 27% career 3-for-39 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Sylvain Pion 28% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Bank Empire 10-1, R6: Time For Action 7-2, R7: Sedburys Ghost 15-1

10/14 board here

Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now. Switches from turf to dirt.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 9d back

RECORD 3 wins, 10 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Romero Ramsay Maragh from post 2 here: 7 wins, 16 top-3 in 52 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	WO	7f T	OC 40k	3rd/7 -3½L	80	5.3-1	L	Stalked; late rally
9/4	WO	6f T	OC 40k	Won/6 by 3½	88	10-1	L	Wore down foes 70yds
8/9	WO	6½f D	OC 32k n1x	4th/5 -5L	81	4.9-1	L	Inside;swung 4w;no bid

3Diamond RimRan 8thJ. Hoyte · D. RombisHoyte · RombisA88 85 76▲▲+8@trip 8910-1Fair 30-14%▲▲ Big jump +888 85 76@trip 89A

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 85 76

Jockey Jason Hoyte 23% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Debra E Rombis 24% career 6-for-14 on dirt this meet (43%), #1 of 41

Also today · Jockey R2: Lawyer Mason 2-1, R5: Friday's Grace 20-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Won last out in a 6-horse optional claiming race at ASD. Changes barns, from Steven Gaskin to Debra E Rombis.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 6 (4F in :48.20), 2 works in 30d

RECORD Jason Hoyte from post 3 here: 5 wins, 21 top-3 in 78 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/24	ASD	6f D	OC 22k b	Won/6 by 1½	88	1.8-1	b L	Otsd; good late rly
8/4	ASD	6f D	OC 22k b	2nd/7 -4L	85	3.6-1	b L	Stk duel 4-wd; fin wel
7/18	FAR	6f D	Alw b	Won/5	76	0.4-1	b LB	Led; shook free 1/8p

4El AlacranRan 5thK. Nicholls · J. BeggNicholls · BeggA86 84 67▲▲+9@trip 863-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +986 84 67@trip 86A2

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 84 67

Jockey Keveh Nicholls 30% career 7-for-47 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer James Bentley Begg 30% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R6: Jolley 20-1 · Trainer R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R3: Sunday Finery 6-1, R4: Bank Empire 10-1, R6: Jolley 20-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST6/10 board here

Has moved up each time out, 67 to 84 to 86. Winner of a 7-horse allowance race at WO last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 31; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Keveh Nicholls from post 4 here: 15 wins, 60 top-3 in 139 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	WO	6½f D	Alw s	Won/7	86	1.2-1	b L	Strong lead;had plenty
9/12	WO	6f D	Clm 15k	Won/6	84	3.1-1	b L	Dictate pace;kept on
8/21	WO	6f T	Clm 25k	8th/9 -5¼L	67	5.9-1	b L	Btwn;chk'd 5/8;swung7w

5War Legend▼Ran 6thP. Moran · S. AttardMoran · AttardC80 75 77▲+4≡@trip 7715-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +480 75 77 ≡@trip 77C▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 90

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 75–80 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 75 77

▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 90

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 17-for-93 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Sid C Attard 33% career 4-for-31 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Ratings Upgrade 5-2, R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R3: Homeawayfromhome 3-1, R4: Dwight 3-1 +4 more

WON LAST5/7 board here

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $25,000 claiming race at WO at 1.6-1. A step up in company: $25,000 claiming before, allowance optional claiming today.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Bump st; much the best.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 36d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 5 here: 32 wins, 110 top-3 in 223 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	6f D	Clm 25k n2l	Won/7 by 1	80	1.6-1	L	Bump st;much the best
9/12	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k n2lc	2nd/8 -3L	75	2.4-1	L	Loom4W3/16;no match
8/9	WO	6f D	OC 40k	5th/8 -5L	77	4.5-1	L	5W3/16in mix;stall1/8

6Yacht BoyRan 2ndJ. Alderson · R. TillerAlderson · TillerB81 87 82▼-6@trip 899-2Fair 7-113%▼ Down -681 87 82@trip 89B3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 87 82

Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career ★ 7-for-32 on dirt this meet (22%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Robert P Tiller 33% career ★ 7-for-24 on dirt this meet (29%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Tiz A Quest 20-1, R10: Shakoo Makoo 6-1 · Trainer R5: Townline Bertie 2-1

11/14 board here

Jeffrey Ian Alderson takes over from Daisuke Fukumoto in the saddle. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 44d ago

RECORD 1 win, 11 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 6 here: 11 wins, 31 top-3 in 89 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	WO	6f D	OC 32k n1x	2nd/6 -4L	81	3.0-1	L	Brk out badly;2nd best
9/27	WO	7f D	OC 32k n1x	3rd/8 -5L	87	5.3-1	L	Floated7Wstr;kept on
8/9	WO	6½f D	OC 32k n1x	3rd/5 -5¼L	82	2.5-1	L	Bump brk; gained show

7Uncaptured Moment▼Ran 7thR. Walcott · R. JonesWalcott · JonesC82 62 82▲+6↕@trip 8520-1Fair 50-12%▲ Up +682 62 82 ↕@trip 85C▼ Best fig 85 is 5+ under today's par 90

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 62 82

▼ Best fig 85 is 5+ under today's par 90

Jockey Rico W Walcott 30% career 1-for-14 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Ryan A Jones 25% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Mo Cookie 9-2

13/17 board here

Moves up from allowance to allowance optional claiming. Best recent figure of 85 sits right around the 90 par.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 15d ago)

RECORD 3 wins, 13 on the board from 17 starts here

RECORD Rico W Walcott from post 7 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 32 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	WO	6½f D	Alw s	2nd/7 -3L	82	3.0-1	b L	Circle3W5/16;2ndbest
9/20	WO	6f T	OC 32k n1x	9th/10 -11L	62	19-1	b L	Regress5/16;no factor
8/29	WO	6½f T	OC 32k n1x	5th/7 -2L	82	20-1	b L	Btwn 3/8;bmpd upper

8Dreaming of KonaRan 3rdC. Douglas · H. LadauceurDouglas · LadauceurB77 73 78►10-1Fair 20-15%► Steady77 73 78B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 77 73 78

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 11-for-86 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Harold Ladauceur

Also today · Jockey R1: Nile Passage 4-1, R2: Instant Response 20-1, R4: Makinmommaproud 15-1, R5: Rockfort 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Tan Toast 6-1, R2: Mr. Perfect 10-1

Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on May 20, in :48.60. Worked 4F in :47.00 on Sep 27, 2nd of 71 at the distance.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 29d ago

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 8 here: 2 wins, 3 top-3 in 23 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	WO	6f D	OC 32k n1x	3rd/6 -4¾L	77	6.2-1	L	Came out str;along 3rd
8/24	ASD	6f D	OC 22k b	6th/6 -8½L	73	5.2-1	L	Stmbld brk;stdied trn
8/3	ASD	1m D	MntobaMleB51k	7th/8 -9L	78	24-1	L	Stlkd 4-5-wd; tired

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #1 Endrick, finished 4th.

1st2WagnerWin$15.50Place$6.60Show$4.80Our #4

2nd6Yacht BoyWin—Place$6.20Show$3.60Our #3

3rd8Dreaming Of KonaWin—Place—Show$7.20Our #5

4th1EndrickOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 9

OFFICIAL

Optional Claiming $32,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$125,000

Post

5:12 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#1 · 48%

Claiming $32,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.44

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Endrick (early speed, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 88 · 91 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 El Alacran at 3-1. Use #6 Yacht Boy in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Wagner won (our #4) · top pick Endrick ran 4th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 5th, 2nd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#1 ENDRICK	4th
#2	#4 EL ALACRAN	5th
#3	#6 YACHT BOY	2nd
#4	#2 WAGNER	1st
#5	#8 DREAMING OF KONA	3rd

Actual finish

1st	#2 Wagner	our #4
2nd	#6 Yacht Boy	our #3
3rd	#8 Dreaming of Kona	our #5
4th	#1 Endrick	our #1
5th	#4 El Alacran	our #2

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 ENDRICK (7-5) — our number agrees.
#1 ENDRICK — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (35.9% to their 32.5%).
#4 EL ALACRAN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.2% to their 19.5%).
#6 YACHT BOY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.9% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 El Alacran; pressure from #1 Endrick, #3 Diamond Rim; the shape helps #2 Wagner, #3 Diamond Rim, #7 Uncaptured Moment; and works against #1 Endrick, #4 El Alacran.

Lead

4El Alacran961Endrick95

Press

3Diamond Rim937Uncaptured Moment89

Stalk

2Wagner888Dreaming Of Kona85

6Yacht Boy835War Legend80

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

El Alacran

Endrick

Diamond Rim

Uncaptured Moment

Wagner

Dreaming Of Kona

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

War Legend

Yacht Boy

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Bet types

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