Pick sheet

Race 84:42 PM Grey-G3

1 1/16 Mi · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Freedom Hall, is 25% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: #7 is the only true speed and could control it.

Top pick #7 Freedom Hall ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best ↕ Up and down 51–85 ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85 1st-time Lasix

Jockey P. Moran · Trainer M. Trombetta · 31 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/1	PID	6½f D	OC 62k n1x	Won/5	85	8.7-1	Drew off; much best
8/28	CNL	6f D	Moc50000	Won/8	77	2.9-1	Ins;drw off;held
7/19	CNL	5½f D	MSW	6th/7 -11L	51	4.2-1	Checked5/8 & 9/16 ins

Case: Last out won in the OC62500n1x at PID. Last Brisnet figures 85-77-51. M. Trombetta / P. Moran.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6½f). Never raced at Woodbine.

Contender #2 Speaker's Speech ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2

Jockey R. Hernandez · Trainer M. Casse · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	WO	5f T	Algnquin G3	3rd/6 -3¼L	83	3.8-1	L	Lacked running room
8/15	WO	6½f T	SoarFree Stk	2nd/6	84	10-1		Slw st;swoop3/8;nailed

Case: Last out 3rd in the Algnquin-G3 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 83-84. M. Casse / R. Hernandez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6½f). Never raced at Woodbine.

Use #1 Play It Again ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85 1st-time Lasix Last out 6th/8 -5¼L in the Summer-G1 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 85-76-71. Best at today's distance 76. M. Casse / F. Aebly. Knock: Never raced at Woodbine.

Jockey F. Aebly · Trainer M. Casse · 50 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1m T	Summer G1	6th/8 -5¼L	85	27-1	Inside turn;shift 4-6w
8/1	ELP	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/12 by 2	76	3.7-1	Ins;4p1/4;grind;up lat
7/5	ELP	1m T	MSW	3rd/11 -3L	71	4.0-1	3wd;closer 2nd;ran on

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #7 · B #1, #4, #6 · C #5

Angles: #1 Last fig 85 at/above par 85 · #4 Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 85 · #5 Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 85 · #6 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 85 · #7 Last fig 85 at/above par 85

R8 Woodbine · Grey Stakes (G3)

4:42 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $175,000 · 7 runners4:42 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 7 runners

Official $175K · Grey Stakes (G3)

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Play It Again▲Ran 2ndF. Aebly · M. CasseAebly · CasseB85 76 71▲▲+127-2Fair 4-119%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best85 76 71B▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 853

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 85 76 71

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 17-for-99 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Ready To Battle 7-2, R2: Padraig 5-2, R4: Alpha Gamma Girl 2-1, R6: Bunyan 8-5 +2 more · Trainer R6: Time For Action 7-2, R6: Kingslayer 10-1, R7: Tour The City 10-1, R7: Webslinger 8-1 +1 more

LASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Purse drops from $500,000 to $175,000 against its last start. Switches from turf to dirt.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Inside turn; shift 4-6w last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 1 here: 44 wins, 122 top-3 in 254 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	WO	1m T	Summer G1	6th/8 -5¼L	85	27-1	Inside turn;shift 4-6w
8/1	ELP	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/12 by 2	76	3.7-1	Ins;4p1/4;grind;up lat
7/5	ELP	1m T	MSW	3rd/11 -3L	71	4.0-1	3wd;closer 2nd;ran on

2Speaker's SpeechRan 1stR. Hernandez · M. CasseHernandez · CasseA83 843-1Fair 7-222%—83 84A2
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 83 84
Jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez 38% career ★ 12-for-60 on dirt this meet (20%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 8-for-41 on dirt this meet (20%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Remarkably Human 2-1, R5: Townline Bertie 2-1, R7: King D'Oro 6-1, R9: Endrick 7-5 · Trainer R6: Time For Action 7-2, R6: Kingslayer 10-1, R7: Tour The City 10-1, R7: Webslinger 8-1 +1 more
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Stretches out from 5 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 8d ago
RECORD Rafael Manuel Hernandez from post 2 here: 76 wins, 154 top-3 in 281 rides · 21% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 WO 5f T Algnquin G3 3rd/6 -3¼L 83 3.8-1 L Lacked running room
8/15 WO 6½f T SoarFree Stk 2nd/6 84 10-1 Slw st;swoop3/8;nailed

3Uncle DodoRan 6thE. Wilson · B. MinshallWilson · MinshallA79 61 94▲+4↕5-1Fair 7-113%▲ Up +479 61 94 ↕A

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–94 · Last 3 figs 79 61 94

Jockey Emma Jayne Wilson 30% career ★ 11-for-53 on dirt this meet (21%), #2 of 31 · Trainer Barbara J Minshall 29% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Silver Coast 8-1, R6: Kingslayer 10-1, R7: Webslinger 8-1 · Trainer R7: Sedburys Ghost 15-1, this race: King's Counsel 6-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/4 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 94. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 7 furlongs last time.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.00 on Sep 26 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Emma Jayne Wilson from post 3 here: 28 wins, 64 top-3 in 159 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f D	Display Stk	2nd/4 -5L	79	1.4-1	L	Poor st;ask 3/8;4w3/16
8/15	WO	6½f T	SoarFree Stk	5th/6 -9½L	61	5.1-1	L	Tracked;had no finish
7/12	WO	5½f D	Victoria Stk	Won/7 by ½	94	3.7-1	L	Duel/lost crop70yds;up

4King's Counsel▼Ran 5thD. Fukumoto · B. MinshallFukumoto · MinshallB75 80 79▼-5≡6-1Fair 8-110%▼ Down -575 80 79 ≡B▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 85

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 75–80 · Last 3 figs 75 80 79

▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 85

Jockey Daisuke Fukumoto 28% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Barbara J Minshall 29% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Trainer R7: Sedburys Ghost 15-1, this race: Uncle Dodo 5-1

★ FASTEST WORK3/5 board here

Beaten 7 lengths for 5th in a 10-horse race at WO. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 26 (5F in :59.00), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Daisuke Fukumoto from post 4 here: 13 wins, 42 top-3 in 90 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	1 1/16 T	rCupSaucerB300k	5th/10 -7L	75	4.9-1	b L	Press;wilted;came back
8/30	WO	6½f D	SimcoeB300k	Won/9	80	1.8-1	b L	Swung 7w;drift;held
7/19	WO	6f D	MSW	2nd/11 -3L	79	6.7-1	b	Chase wnr 3-4w;2nd bst

5Authentic Gold▼Ran 7thJ. Campos · K. VassilievaCampos · VassilievaC79 65 59▲▲+23↕20-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best79 65 59 ↕C▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 85
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +23 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 44–79 · Last 3 figs 79 65 59
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey Jose Luis Campos 26% career 10-for-58 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Katerina Vassilieva 31% career 1-for-10 on dirt this meet (10%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Tan Toast 6-1, R2: Mr. Perfect 10-1, R3: Mrs D 9-5, R7: Magical Factor 7-2
Has moved up each time out, 59 to 65 to 79. 2nd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 11.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)
RECORD Jose Luis Campos from post 5 here: 19 wins, 73 top-3 in 225 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 WO 7f D MSW 2nd/11 -2L 79 12-1 L Bid 1/16; outfinished
9/6 WO 6½f D MSW 3rd/6 -4L 65 7.8-1 L Rally3Wbtwn1/4;held3rd
8/1 ELP 1 1/16 T MSW 11th/12 -6¾L 59 31-1 Bore out11/16;ins;wknd
6Okarito▼Ran 3rdR. Munger · E. HartyMunger · HartyB74 658-1Fair 12-18%—74 65B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 85
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 74 65
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey Ryan Munger 30% career 7-for-42 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Eoin Harty 34% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Epic Affair 5-2, R4: Starship Salute 6-1, R6: Happy Marsden 6-1, R7: Tour The City 10-1 +1 more
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Won last out in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at CD. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes gr3 today.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 8d ago)
RECORD Ryan Munger from post 6 here: 22 wins, 74 top-3 in 185 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/24 CD 1m T MSW Won/12 by 2 74 13-1 b Ins;2-3p;7p upr;rally
8/21 ELP 6f D MSW 6th/12 -11L 65 16-1 6p into lane;improved
7Freedom Hall▲Ran 4thP. Moran · M. TrombettaMoran · TrombettaA85 77 51▲▲+21↕2-1Fair 3-125%▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best85 77 51 ↕A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 851
Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–85 · Last 3 figs 85 77 51
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85
Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 17-for-93 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Michael J Trombetta 33% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Ratings Upgrade 5-2, R2: Hoity Moroni 3-1, R3: Homeawayfromhome 3-1, R4: Dwight 3-1 +4 more
LASIX 1STWON LAST
Raises its level, optional claiming last time and stakes gr3 now. A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)
SHARP LAST OUT Drew off; much best last out, and it did it the right way.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)
RECORD Pietro Moran from post 7 here: 34 wins, 87 top-3 in 187 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 PID 6½f D OC 62k n1x Won/5 85 8.7-1 Drew off; much best
8/28 CNL 6f D Moc50000 Won/8 77 2.9-1 Ins;drw off;held
7/19 CNL 5½f D MSW 6th/7 -11L 51 4.2-1 Checked5/8 & 9/16 ins

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WO	7f D	MSW	2nd/11 -2L	79	12-1	L	Bid 1/16; outfinished
9/6	WO	6½f D	MSW	3rd/6 -4L	65	7.8-1	L	Rally3Wbtwn1/4;held3rd
8/1	ELP	1 1/16 T	MSW	11th/12 -6¾L	59	31-1		Bore out11/16;ins;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/24	CD	1m T	MSW	Won/12 by 2	74	13-1	b	Ins;2-3p;7p upr;rally
8/21	ELP	6f D	MSW	6th/12 -11L	65	16-1		6p into lane;improved

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #7 is the only true speed and could control it.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #7 Freedom Hall, finished 4th.

1st2Speaker's SpeechWin$7.20Place$3.80Show$3.10Our #2

2nd1Play It AgainWin—Place$2.90Show$2.50Our #3

3rd6OkaritoWin—Place—Show$3.50Our #6

4th7Freedom HallOur #1

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 8

OFFICIAL

Grey Stakes (G3)

Field

7 runners

Purse

$175,000

Post

4:42 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#7 · 25%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.73

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #7 Freedom Hall (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 85 · 77 · 51. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 Speaker's Speech at 3-1. Use #1 Play It Again in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #2 WON

Speaker's Speech (our #2) won · top pick Freedom Hall ran 4th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 4th, 1st, 2nd

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (4th)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#7 FREEDOM HALL	4th
#2	#2 SPEAKER'S SPEECH	1st
#3	#1 PLAY IT AGAIN	2nd
#4	#3 UNCLE DODO	6th
#5	#4 KING'S COUNSEL	5th

Actual finish

1st	#2 Speaker's Speech	our #2
2nd	#1 Play It Again	our #3
3rd	#6 Okarito	our #6
4th	#7 Freedom Hall	our #1
5th	#4 King's Counsel	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 FREEDOM HALL (2-1) — our number agrees.
#7 FREEDOM HALL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (25.5% to their 26.2%).
#2 SPEAKER'S SPEECH — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 19.6%).
#1 PLAY IT AGAIN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 17.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Freedom Hall; the shape helps #1 Play It Again, #4 King's Counsel, #5 Authentic Gold; and works against #7 Freedom Hall.

Lead

7Freedom Hall97

Press

none

Stalk

5Authentic Gold914King's Counsel891Play It Again87

2Speaker's Speech926Okarito793Uncle Dodo78

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Freedom Hall

Authentic Gold

King's Counsel

Play It Again

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Speaker's Speech

Uncle Dodo

Okarito

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