Pick sheet

Race 21:37 PM Clm 15000n2l

6.5F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Lawyer Mason, is 27% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #6 Lawyer Mason ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 71–74

Jockey J. Hoyte · Trainer D. Gittens · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · 14 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WO	6f D	OC 40k	5th/6 -7L	71	18-1	b L	Brk out;trail;pass one
9/25	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k n2lc	7th/8 -4½L	72	3.1-1	L	5W1/4;3P1/8;no factor
8/30	WO	7f D	OC 50k n2l	4th/7 -9L	74	6.2-1	L	Bmp st;insd turn;6w1/8

Case: Last out 5th/6 -7L in the OC40000 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 71-72-74. 0-for-2 at Woodbine. D. Gittens / J. Hoyte.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #2 Padraig ML 5-2 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -3 ↕ Up and down 42–77

Jockey F. Aebly · Trainer M. Wright Jr. · KEE 8: 1-4-1 · Dist 3: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6½f dirt 79 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	WO	6½f D	Clm 15k n2l	5th/6 -5L	61	1.9-1	L	Toss head brk;3-4w trn
8/22	WO	5½f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/6 -2L	73	0.9-1	L	5Wstr in hunt;almost
7/24	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k n2l	10th/10 -10L	42	6.0-1	L	Used up lead;folded

Case: Last out 5th/6 -5L in the Clm15000n2l at WO. Last Brisnet figures 61-73-42. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-8 at Woodbine. M. Wright Jr. / F. Aebly.

Knock: 0-for-3 at the distance.

Use #5 Hoity Moroni ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #3 ► Steady ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81 Last out 3rd in the Clm25000n2l at WO. Last Brisnet figures 71-69-64. Best at today's distance 35. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Woodbine. J. Begg / P. Moran. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey P. Moran · Trainer J. Begg · KEE 2: 0-0-2 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6½f dirt 35 · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	6f D	Clm 25k n2l	3rd/7 -4L	71	9.2-1	L	Jostled st;late run3rd
9/11	WO	5½f D	Clm 15k n2lc	3rd/5 -½L	69	2.3-1	L	Duel rail turn;mildly
8/5	FL	5½f D	Alw n2l	5th/5 -½L	64	3.5-1	b L	3p trn;gave way

Longshot #7 Instant Response ML 20-1 Fair 20-1 Model #7 ▼ Down -5 ▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey C. Douglas · Trainer R. Sadler · KEE 11: 1-1-4 · Dist 2: 1-0-0 · best fig at 6½f dirt 70 · 30 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	WO	5½f D	Clm 7k n2lc	4th/7 -1L	61	4.0-1	L	Bid rail1/8;evened out
9/19	WO	6½f D	Clm 15k n2l	6th/6 -6L	55	12-1	L	Press;ask 5/16;faded
8/28	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/11 -2½L	73	53-1	L	Inside; kept on

Case: Last out 4th/7 -1L in the Clm7500n2lc at WO. Last Brisnet figures 61-55-73. Best at today's distance 70. 1-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-11 at Woodbine. R. Sadler / C. Douglas.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #6 · B #1, #2, #3 · C #7

Angles: #3 Lone speed on early pace · #5 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #7 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81

R2 Woodbine · Claiming $15,000

1:37 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt · $41,300 · 7 runners1:37 PM · 6½f Dirt · 7 runners

Official $41K · Claiming $15,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Mr. PerfectRan 2ndJ. Campos · H. LadauceurCampos · LadauceurB71 67 85▼-3@trip 7310-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -371 67 85@trip 73B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 67 85

Jockey Jose Luis Campos 26% career 10-for-58 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Harold Ladauceur

Also today · Jockey R1: Tan Toast 6-1, R3: Mrs D 9-5, R7: Magical Factor 7-2, R8: Authentic Gold 20-1 · Trainer R1: Tan Toast 6-1, R9: Dreaming Of Kona 10-1

CLASS DROPJky 28/206 from post 1

Tops the field on speed figures, an 85 against 78 for the next best. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP 5Wstr; no rally btwn last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 9d ago)

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 15 starts here

RECORD Jose Luis Campos from post 1 here: 28 wins, 88 top-3 in 206 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	WO	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	8th/9 -5¼L	71	4.5-1	L	5Wstr;no rally btwn
9/12	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k n2l	7th/8 -6½L	67	13-1	L	2Pstr;lacked rally
8/23	WO	7f D	Moc25000	Won/6	85	3.3-1	L	Game effort on lead

2PadraigRan 5thF. Aebly · M. Wright Jr.Aebly · Wright Jr.B61 73 42▼-3↕@trip 795-2Fair 3-124%▼ Down -361 73 42 ↕@trip 79B2

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–77 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 73 42

Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 17-for-99 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Michael Jr Wright 37% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Ready To Battle 7-2, R4: Alpha Gamma Girl 2-1, R6: Bunyan 8-5, R7: Kekoa 5-2 +2 more · Trainer R10: Cotton 3-1

6/9 board here

Last out was 5th, 5 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $15,000 claiming race at WO. Best recent figure of 77 sits right around the 81 par.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 15 (4F in :47.80), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 2 here: 34 wins, 116 top-3 in 225 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	WO	6½f D	Clm 15k n2l	5th/6 -5L	61	1.9-1	L	Toss head brk;3-4w trn
8/22	WO	5½f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/6 -2L	73	0.9-1	L	5Wstr in hunt;almost
7/24	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k n2l	10th/10 -10L	42	6.0-1	L	Used up lead;folded

3Aryeh▲Ran 7thJ. Crawford · K. WhiteleyCrawford · WhiteleyB71 68 77►@trip 748-1Fair 12-18%► Steady71 68 77@trip 74B▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 68 77

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey J Crawford 30% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Kevin Whiteley 23% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Aterya 7-2, R5: Candycrest 15-1, R10: Pine Knoll 7-5

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Carries 125 pounds, 5 more than last time. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Aug 13 (:47.60), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 72 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD J Crawford from post 3 here: 5 wins, 25 top-3 in 95 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	WO	6f D	Clm 15k n2l	6th/9 -3L	71	2.1-1	b L	3Wstr in mix;wilted16
9/12	WO	7½f T	Clm 25k n2l	6th/8 -3½L	68	4.2-1	b L	Took lead5/16;faded1/8
8/28	WO	7f D	MCL 15k	Won/10	77	4.0-1	b L	Drew off; held safe

4Bee MeRan 1stD. Nelson · K. ColeNelson · ColeA71 68 70►≡@trip 796-1Fair 10-110%► Steady71 68 70 ≡@trip 79A

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 68–72 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 68 70

Jockey Dane Nelson 31% career 3-for-31 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Krista Cole 17% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%)

★ FASTEST WORK6/10 board here

0 for 7 at today's distance. A 72 is the high figure lately, short of the 81 par.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP 3-4w turn; 6w 3/16 last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.00 on Oct 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/8 -2¾L	71	8.8-1	L	3-4w turn; 6w 3/16
9/19	WO	6½f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/6 -2½L	68	13-1	L	Gaining 3w;missed 2nd
8/28	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	6th/11 -6¾L	70	12-1	L	2-3w;ridden 3/8;7w str

5Hoity Moroni▼Ran 6thP. Moran · J. BeggMoran · BeggA71 69 64►@trip 353-1Fair 7-222%► Steady71 69 64@trip 35A▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 813

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 35 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 69 64

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey Pietro Moran 32% career 17-for-93 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer James Bentley Begg 30% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Ratings Upgrade 5-2, R3: Homeawayfromhome 3-1, R4: Dwight 3-1, R5: C C Casino 4-1 +4 more · Trainer R3: Sunday Finery 6-1, R4: Bank Empire 10-1, R6: Jolley 20-1, R9: El Alacran 3-1

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Drops from $25,000 claiming to $15,000 claiming. Has moved up each time out, 64 to 69 to 71.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 28d back)

RECORD Pietro Moran from post 5 here: 32 wins, 110 top-3 in 223 rides · 18% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	WO	6f D	Clm 25k n2l	3rd/7 -4L	71	9.2-1	L	Jostled st;late run3rd
9/11	WO	5½f D	Clm 15k n2lc	3rd/5 -½L	69	2.3-1	L	Duel rail turn;mildly
8/5	FL	5½f D	Alw n2l	5th/5 -½L	64	3.5-1	b L	3p trn;gave way

6Lawyer MasonRan 3rdJ. Hoyte · D. GittensHoyte · GittensA71 72 74►≡2-1Fair 5-227%► Steady71 72 74 ≡A1

Card model 27% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–74 · Last 3 figs 71 72 74

Jockey Jason Hoyte 23% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Devon Gittens 31% career ★ 8-for-38 on dirt this meet (21%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Friday's Grace 20-1, R9: Diamond Rim 10-1

CLASS UP0/3 board here

Was running in optional claiming; today's $15,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 21d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Jason Hoyte from post 6 here: 7 wins, 25 top-3 in 84 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WO	6f D	OC 40k	5th/6 -7L	71	18-1	b L	Brk out;trail;pass one
9/25	WO	1 1/16 T	Clm 25k n2lc	7th/8 -4½L	72	3.1-1	L	5W1/4;3P1/8;no factor
8/30	WO	7f D	OC 50k n2l	4th/7 -9L	74	6.2-1	L	Bmp st;insd turn;6w1/8

7Instant Response▼LSRan 4thC. Douglas · R. SadlerDouglas · SadlerC61 55 73▼-5@trip 7020-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -561 55 73@trip 70C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81LS

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 61 55 73

▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81LS

Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Christoff Douglas 14% career 11-for-86 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Ronald H Sadler 34% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Nile Passage 4-1, R4: Makinmommaproud 15-1, R5: Rockfort 10-1, R7: Saugeen 12-1 +1 more

CLASS DROP5/10 board here

Changes barns, from Daniel S Harvey to Ronald H Sadler. A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, 6½ furlongs today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 8d back

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Christoff Douglas from post 7 here: 1 win, 8 top-3 in 33 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	WO	5½f D	Clm 7k n2lc	4th/7 -1L	61	4.0-1	L	Bid rail1/8;evened out
9/19	WO	6½f D	Clm 15k n2l	6th/6 -6L	55	12-1	L	Press;ask 5/16;faded
8/28	WO	7f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/11 -2½L	73	53-1	L	Inside; kept on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Lawyer Mason, finished 3rd.

1st4Bee MeWin$11.80Place$5.70Show$3.90Our #4

2nd1Mr. PerfectWin—Place$7.30Show$4.00Our #6

3rd6Lawyer MasonWin—Place—Show$4.30Our #1

4th7Instant ResponseOur #7

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Claiming $15,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$41,300

Post

1:37 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#6 · 27%

Claiming $15,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.44

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Lawyer Mason (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 71 · 72 · 74. Backup is #2 Padraig at 5-2. Use #5 Hoity Moroni in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 3RD

Top pick Lawyer Mason ran 3rd · Bee Me won (our #4)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
✗ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 5th, 6th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#6 LAWYER MASON	3rd
#2	#2 PADRAIG	5th
#3	#5 HOITY MORONI	6th
#4	#4 BEE ME	1st
#5	#3 ARYEH	7th

Actual finish

1st	#4 Bee Me	our #4
2nd	#1 Mr. Perfect	our #6
3rd	#6 Lawyer Mason	our #1
4th	#7 Instant Response	our #7
5th	#2 Padraig	our #2

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #6 LAWYER MASON (2-1) — our number agrees.
#6 LAWYER MASON — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.9% to their 26.4%).
#2 PADRAIG — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.9% to their 22.6%).
#5 HOITY MORONI — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 19.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Aryeh; pressure from #5 Hoity Moroni, #1 Mr. Perfect; the shape helps #1 Mr. Perfect, #2 Padraig, #4 Bee Me; and works against #3 Aryeh, #5 Hoity Moroni.

Lead

3Aryeh905Hoity Moroni87

Press

1Mr. Perfect857Instant Response852Padraig70

Stalk

4Bee Me74

6Lawyer Mason77

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Aryeh

Hoity Moroni

Mr. Perfect

Instant Response

Bee Me

Padraig

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Lawyer Mason

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

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