Pick sheet

Race 105:42 PM Clm 10000

6F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Pine Knoll, is 37% to win (morning line implies 33%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Pine Knoll ML 7-5 Fair 8-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ★ Best at 6f dirt: 88 ≡ Steady 79–82

Jockey J. Crawford · Trainer W. Tharrenos · KEE 18: 2-6-4 · Dist 8: 1-3-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 88 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	WO	6f D	Clm 15k	2nd/7 -½L	80	5.6-1	b L	Stubbornly btwn;up2nd
9/18	WO	5f T	Clm 25k	2nd/7 -½L	82	4.0-1	b L	Battle outs;2ndbest
8/21	WO	6f T	Clm 25k	Won/9	79	30-1	b L	Press;duel;clear;held

Case: Last out 2nd in the Clm15000 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 80-82-79. Best at today's distance 88. 1-for-8 at the distance. 2-for-18 at Woodbine. W. Tharrenos / J. Crawford.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #8 Cotton ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +9 ↕ Up and down 61–83

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer M. Wright Jr. · KEE 14: 5-1-1 · Dist 6: 2-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 83 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	WO	6f D	Clm 7k b	Won/8	80	0.8-1	L	Pace;roused;drew clear
8/9	WO	6f D	Clm 7k b	2nd/14	83	7.2-1	L	To lead3/16;not enough
6/19	WO	5f D	Clm 15k	4th/6 -3L	68	13-1	L	Float6W3/16;minors

Case: Last out won in the Clm7500b at WO. Last Brisnet figures 80-83-68. Best at today's distance 83. 2-for-6 at the distance. 5-for-14 at Woodbine. M. Wright Jr. / L. Reyes.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #1 Dissectologist ML 9-2 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +4 ≡ Steady 74–79 Last out 2nd in the Clm7500 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 79-74-77. Best at today's distance 77. 3-for-14 at the distance. 7-for-40 at Woodbine. J. Russo / F. Aebly. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey F. Aebly · Trainer J. Russo · KEE 40: 7-4-10 · Dist 14: 3-1-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 77 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	WO	7f D	Clm 7k	2nd/7	79	3.1-1	b L	Pounce1/8;not enough
10/2	WO	6½f D	Clm 10k	3rd/7 by hd	74	9.6-1	b L	Set pace; saved3rd
9/6	WO	6f D	Clm 7k	Won/10	77	6.4-1	b L	Open up3/16;held on

Longshot #7 Tiger Town ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #6 ▲ Up +7 ▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey E. Flores · Trainer J. Coryat · KEE 19: 3-5-0 · Dist 6: 0-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 73 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	WO	6f D	Clm 15k	7th/7 -6L	73	38-1	L	Never was a factor
9/26	WO	6½f D	Clm 15k b	Won/7 by ½	75	5.1-1	L	Veer in;got up on rail
9/7	WO	5½f D	Clm 7k b	2nd/6	68	3.2-1	L	Stp slw;led;grudgingly

Case: Last out 7th/7 -6L in the Clm15000 at WO. Last Brisnet figures 73-75-68. Best at today's distance 73. 0-for-6 at the distance. 3-for-19 at Woodbine. J. Coryat / E. Flores.

Knock: 0-for-6 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #6, #8 · B #1, #5, #7 · C #2, #4

Angles: #4 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #7 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81

R10 Woodbine · Claiming $10,000

5:42 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $37,600 · 8 runners5:42 PM · 6f Dirt · 8 runners

Official $38K · Claiming $10,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1DissectologistRan 3rdF. Aebly · J. RussoAebly · RussoB79 74 77▲+4≡@trip 779-2Fair 6-114%▲ Up +479 74 77 ≡@trip 77B3
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 74–79 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 74 77
Jockey Fraser Aebly 32% career 17-for-99 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Joe S Russo 21% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Ready To Battle 7-2, R2: Padraig 5-2, R4: Alpha Gamma Girl 2-1, R6: Bunyan 8-5 +2 more
CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK11/14 board here
A step up in company: $7,000 claiming before, $10,000 claiming today. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on May 4; 0 works in 30d
RECORD 5 wins, 11 on the board from 14 starts here
RECORD Fraser Aebly from post 1 here: 44 wins, 122 top-3 in 254 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 WO 7f D Clm 7k 2nd/7 79 3.1-1 b L Pounce1/8;not enough
10/2 WO 6½f D Clm 10k 3rd/7 by hd 74 9.6-1 b L Set pace; saved3rd
9/6 WO 6f D Clm 7k Won/10 77 6.4-1 b L Open up3/16;held on

2DoadsterRan 5thL. Salles · S. CeccatoSalles · CeccatoC62 72 78▼▼-12@trip 6220-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1262 72 78@trip 62C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 72 78

Jockey Leo Salles 27% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Sharon Ceccato 31% career

Also today · Trainer R4: Aterya 7-2

CLASS UP4/8 board here

Switches from turf to dirt. A longer trip: -7 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 40 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 4 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Leo Salles from post 2 here: 12 wins, 49 top-3 in 133 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	FE	-7f T	Clm 10k b	5th/7 -4½L	62	3.8-1	b	3-p str; nothing left
9/28	FE	-7f T	Clm 5k n3lc	Won/8	72	1.4-1	b	Set pace; held sway
8/31	FE	6½f D	Clm 10k n2l	Won/7	78	2.6-1	b	4-p str; prevailed

3Pine Knoll★Ran 2ndJ. Crawford · W. TharrenosCrawford · TharrenosA80 82 79►≡@trip 887-5Fair 8-537%► Steady80 82 79 ≡@trip 88A★ Best at the trip 881

Card model 37% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–82 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 82 79

★ Best at the trip 88

Jockey J Crawford 30% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer William Tharrenos 35% career ★ 10-for-41 on dirt this meet (24%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Aryeh 8-1, R4: Aterya 7-2, R5: Candycrest 15-1 · Trainer R4: Silver Coast 8-1, R9: Endrick 7-5

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK10/14 board here

2nd last time, ½ length back, in a field of 7. Class relief: $15,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.80 on Jul 5 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 10 on the board from 14 starts here

RECORD J Crawford from post 3 here: 5 wins, 25 top-3 in 95 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	WO	6f D	Clm 15k	2nd/7 -½L	80	5.6-1	b L	Stubbornly btwn;up2nd
9/18	WO	5f T	Clm 25k	2nd/7 -½L	82	4.0-1	b L	Battle outs;2ndbest
8/21	WO	6f T	Clm 25k	Won/9	79	30-1	b L	Press;duel;clear;held

4Short Story Long▼Ran 8thK. Johnson · L. HoadJohnson · HoadC67 68 68►≡@trip 7320-1Fair 50-12%► Steady67 68 68 ≡@trip 73C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–71 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 68 68

▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey Kirk Johnson 27% career 0-for-8 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Lindsay Hoad 14% career

★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/28 from post 4

Best recent figure is 73, well under the 81 par for this level. Was 4th of 5 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on Jun 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Kirk Johnson has never won from post 4 here (4 top-3 in 28 rides) · 4% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	FE	6f D	Clm 10k b	3rd/5 -3L	67	25-1	b L	Angled out str; evenly
9/7	FE	6½f D	rCnqEssaiCp32k	6th/6 -4½L	68	23-1	b L	Off pace; outrun
8/18	FE	6½f D	Alw nc	6th/7 -4½L	68	58-1	b L	6-path str; no impact

5Heaven's ChampionRan 6thR. Munger · M. DunslowMunger · DunslowB67 68 75▼-5≡@trip 758-1Fair 12-17%▼ Down -567 68 75 ≡@trip 75B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 67–75 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 68 75

Jockey Ryan Munger 30% career 7-for-42 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Mike A Dunslow 17% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Epic Affair 5-2, R4: Starship Salute 6-1, R6: Happy Marsden 6-1, R7: Tour The City 10-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK6/8 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 75 to 68 to 67. Ryan Munger takes over from Christoff Douglas in the saddle.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.00 on Sep 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Ryan Munger from post 5 here: 25 wins, 83 top-3 in 197 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	WO	6½f D	Clm 10k	6th/7 -1½L	67	9.6-1	L	Chance rail3/16;no run
9/7	WO	5½f D	Clm 7k bc	Won/6 by 1	68	0.9-1	L	Loom2P3/16;inch away
8/14	WO	6½f D	Clm 15k b	3rd/7 -1½L	75	5.1-1	L	Bid btwn 70y;outfnshed

6Shakoo MakooRan 7thJ. Alderson · A. AldersonAlderson · AldersonA78 82 75►@trip 786-1Fair 8-111%► Steady78 82 75@trip 78A

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 82 75

Jockey Jeffrey Ian Alderson 28% career ★ 7-for-32 on dirt this meet (22%), #1 of 31 · Trainer Anthony J Alderson 23% career

Also today · Jockey R6: Tiz A Quest 20-1, R9: Yacht Boy 9-2

WON LAST3/5 board here

Won last out in a 5-horse $9,000 claiming race at FE. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 38 days ago

RECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Jeffrey Ian Alderson from post 6 here: 11 wins, 31 top-3 in 89 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	FE	6f D	Clm 10k b	Won/5	78	1.4-1	b L	Off slow; kept to task
5/31	FE	5½f D	Alw nc	3rd/5 -1½L	82	5.3-1	b L	Speed; gave way str
12/12	WO	5f D	OC 15k	3rd/6 -3L	75	2.7-1	b L	4Wstr;non-threat3rd

7Tiger Town▼LSRan 4thE. Flores · J. CoryatFlores · CoryatB73 75 68▲+7@trip 7312-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +773 75 68@trip 73B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81LS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 75 68

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81LS

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Eswan Flores 32% career 5-for-39 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer John A Coryat 20% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R4: Stormover The Nile 20-1, R7: Running On Time 20-1

3/6 board here

Winless in 6 starts at this distance. 2nd of 6 at 4F on Aug 18, in :49.20.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 63d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Eswan Flores from post 7 here: 18 wins, 54 top-3 in 148 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	WO	6f D	Clm 15k	7th/7 -6L	73	38-1	L	Never was a factor
9/26	WO	6½f D	Clm 15k b	Won/7 by ½	75	5.1-1	L	Veer in;got up on rail
9/7	WO	5½f D	Clm 7k b	2nd/6	68	3.2-1	L	Stp slw;led;grudgingly

8CottonRan 1stL. Reyes · M. Wright Jr.Reyes · Wright Jr.A80 83 68▲▲+9↕@trip 833-1Fair 4-121%▲▲ Big jump +980 83 68 ↕@trip 83A2
Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 83 68
Jockey Luis R Reyes 30% career ★ 3-for-15 on dirt this meet (20%), #3 of 31 · Trainer Michael Jr Wright 37% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%)
Also today · Trainer R2: Padraig 5-2
WON LAST
Tops the field on speed figures, an 83 against 82 for the next best. Last start was a win, in an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at WO at 0.8-1.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Pace; roused; drew clear.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 12 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/25 WO 6f D Clm 7k b Won/8 80 0.8-1 L Pace;roused;drew clear
8/9 WO 6f D Clm 7k b 2nd/14 83 7.2-1 L To lead3/16;not enough
6/19 WO 5f D Clm 15k 4th/6 -3L 68 13-1 L Float6W3/16;minors

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Pine Knoll, finished 2nd.

1st8CottonWin$8.10Place$3.80Show$2.50Our #2

2nd3Pine KnollWin—Place$2.70Show$2.10Our #1

3rd1DissectologistWin—Place—Show$2.60Our #3

4th7Tiger TownOur #6

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WOODBINE · RACE 10

OFFICIAL

Claiming $10,000

Field

8 runners

Purse

$37,600

Post

5:42 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 37%

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.63

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Pine Knoll (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 80 · 82 · 79. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Cotton at 3-1. Use #1 Dissectologist in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Pine Knoll ran 2nd · Cotton won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 1st, 3rd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 PINE KNOLL	2nd
#2	#8 COTTON	1st
#3	#1 DISSECTOLOGIST	3rd
#4	#6 SHAKOO MAKOO	7th
#5	#5 HEAVEN'S CHAMPION	6th

Actual finish

1st	#8 Cotton	our #2
2nd	#3 Pine Knoll	our #1
3rd	#1 Dissectologist	our #3
4th	#7 Tiger Town	our #6
5th	#2 Doadster	our #7

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 PINE KNOLL (7-5) — our number agrees.
#3 PINE KNOLL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (32.2% to their 32.7%).
#8 COTTON — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.1% to their 19.6%).
#1 DISSECTOLOGIST — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.8% to their 14.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Shakoo Makoo; pressure from #2 Doadster, #8 Cotton; the shape helps #1 Dissectologist, #2 Doadster, #3 Pine Knoll; and works against #6 Shakoo Makoo.

Lead

6Shakoo Makoo91

Press

2Doadster958Cotton953Pine Knoll927Tiger Town861Dissectologist81

Stalk

5Heaven's Champion844Short Story Long81

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Doadster

Cotton

Pine Knoll

Shakoo Makoo

Tiger Town

Heaven's Champion

Dissectologist

Short Story Long

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Cotton

Short Story Long

Shakoo Makoo

Pine Knoll

Tiger Town

Dissectologist

Heaven's Champion

Doadster

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