Pick sheet

Race 115:10 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Wanna Ferarri, is 31% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #1 Wanna Ferarri ML 3-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer J. Vane · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 2: 0-2-0 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/10 -1L	92	10-1	b L	Closed gap;held 2nd
4/12	RP	1f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/9 -1L	75	1.5-1	b L	Winner too tough

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 92-75. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Vane / J. Pulido.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.36364f). 0-for-2 at the distance.

Contender #8 La Siccaria ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +15 ↕ Up and down 67–99

Jockey G. Gutierrez · Trainer K. Willis · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 8: 2-1-0 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/9 by 3½	94	17-1	b L	Closed fast;got up
8/27	SRR	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/6	99	5.9-1	b	Gate to wire
8/19	SRR	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	7th/10 -2L	70	50-1	b	Brk out;bmpd hard

Case: Last out won in the Alw19710n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 94-99-70. 2-for-8 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. K. Willis / G. Gutierrez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #6 Aj Hard Player ML 4-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +5 Last out 2nd in the FutTrl10000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 88-95-75. 1-for-4 at the distance. J. Stinebaugh / A. Rivera. Knock: Off 87 days. Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Jockey A. Rivera · Trainer J. Stinebaugh · Dist 4: 1-2-0 · 87 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -½L	88	4.2-1	b L	Dueled; just missed;
5/23	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/8 by hd	95	2.1-1	b L	Veered in start
4/23	RP	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10	75	1.0-1	b L	Powered clear

Longshot #7 Bad N Bougie 123 ML 10-1 Fair 10-1 Model #5 ▼ Down -6

Jockey E. Escobedo · Trainer F. Manriquez · Dist 6: 1-1-3 · 38 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValyJunJuv30k	7th/10 -1L	77	11-1	b LB	No final bid
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	3rd/7 by nk	78	4.5-1	b LB	Finished evenly
7/13	PRM	1.13636f D	MSW	Won/8	86	0.5-1	b LB	Pulled away

Case: Last out 7th/10 -1L in the ValyJunJuv30k at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 77-78-86. 1-for-6 at the distance. F. Manriquez / E. Escobedo.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

★ Distance horse: #4 Bett the Limit (6-1) has the best figure in the field at 1.81818f dirt: 87 from 2 tries, record at the distance 5: 3-0-0. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #6, #8 · B #3, #4, #5 · C #2, #7

R11 WRD · Trial

5:10 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 8 runners5:10 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #4 Bett the Limit (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 87 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Wanna FerarriJ. Pulido · J. VanePulido · VaneA92 753-1Fair 5-231%—92 75A1
Card model 31% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 92 75
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 14-for-41 on dirt this meet (34%), #1 of 36 · Trainer Jed H Vane 34% career ★ 12-for-28 on dirt this meet (43%), #2 of 46 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R4: Hott Take 8-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R8: Suite Talker 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R4: Hott Take 8-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R7: Bp History Maker 4-1 +2 more
★ FASTEST WORK
Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today. Finished 2nd in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at WRD, beaten 1 length.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 15 (1.5F in :17.00), 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 WRD 1.36364f D MSW 2nd/10 -1L 92 10-1 b L Closed gap;held 2nd
4/12 RP 1f D fsMdSpWt 2nd/9 -1L 75 1.5-1 b L Winner too tough

2Pasadena RoseR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadC67 72 70►≡20-1Fair 30-13%► Steady67 72 70 ≡C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 63–72 · Last 3 figs 67 72 70

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 9-for-57 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss American 2-1, R4: Flying Fire 2-1, R5: Ask Her To Fly 8-5 +3 more · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Drops from stakes to stakes nongraded.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	4th/8 -3L	67	85-1	b LB	Nipped for show
7/20	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/6 -2L	72	6.8-1	b LB	Bested rest
6/15	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	6th/9 -1L	70	33-1	b LB	Stumbled start

3Kiss My Tail FeatherB. Candanosa · S. MendozaCandanosa · MendozaB88 86 78▲▲+88-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best88 86 78B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 88 86 78

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R4: Sherrys Relentless 20-1, R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1, R7: Browneyegal 2-1 +1 more

WON LAST

Winner of a 7-horse maiden special weight race at WRD last time. Has moved up each time out, 78 to 86 to 88.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Dueled; drew clear late.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 37d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	WRD	1.36364f D	sMdSpWt	Won/7 by hd	88	1.9-1	b	Dueled;drew clear late
8/20	SRR	1.13636f D	MSW	2nd/8 -¾L	86	3.6-1	b	Lugged in;2nd best
6/26	DED	1½f D	MCL 20kc	3rd/9 -2L	78	1.5-1	L	Game effort

4Bett the Limit★C. Cardenas · J. GonzalesCardenas · GonzalesB83 87 82►≡@trip 876-1Fair 8-111%► Steady83 87 82 ≡@trip 87B★ Best at the trip 87

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–87 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 87 82

★ Best at the trip 87

Jockey Christian Cardenas 32% career · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career

Also today · Jockey R2: La Pacionista 15-1, R5: Dansing Queeen 3-1 · Trainer R2: La Pacionista 15-1, R5: Dansing Queeen 3-1

60D LAYOFF

113 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Changes barns, from Rodolfo G Valles to James Julian Ii Gonzales.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 19d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/12	ALB	1.81818f D	RainbFutG1 G1	10th/10 -2½L	83	13-1	b L	Brief speed
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	Won/10	87	1.1-1	b L	Drifted in; up late
5/30	RP	1.59091f D	HrtgPlFuG1 G1	6th/9 by nk	82	8.9-1	b L	Early duel;wknd

5Suzes RelentlessF. Ramirez Jr. · J. OlmsteadRamirez Jr. · OlmsteadB89 85 91▲+4@trip 7915-1Fair 30-14%▲ Up +489 85 91@trip 79B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 85 91

Jockey Francisco Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Apollitical Strike 15-1 · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. 0 for 7 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 236d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	1½f D	sMdSpWt	7th/10 -2¼L	89	14-1	b L	Broke in;needed more
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	4th/8 -1¼L	85	4.2-1	b L	Up close;needed more
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/9 -1L	91	47-1	b L	Fought gamely;

6Aj Hard PlayerA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughA88 95 75▲+54-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +588 95 75A3

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 88 95 75

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: First Scout 15-1, R5: Singles Famous Eagle 20-1, R10: A Political Assassin 15-1 · Trainer R2: First Scout 15-1, R5: Singles Famous Eagle 20-1, R10: A Political Assassin 15-1

60D LAYOFF

Fastest 1F work of its morning on Jul 7 (:11.80), a sign it is training forwardly. 3rd of 41 at 1F on Jul 23, in :11.60.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.80 on Jul 7 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -½L	88	4.2-1	b L	Dueled; just missed;
5/23	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/8 by hd	95	2.1-1	b L	Veered in start
4/23	RP	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10	75	1.0-1	b L	Powered clear

7Bad N Bougie 123LSE. Escobedo · F. ManriquezEscobedo · ManriquezC77 78 86▼-610-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -677 78 86CLS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 77 78 86

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 8-for-61 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Fernando Ivan Manriquez 28% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Dynastys Princess 12-1, R3: Sp Sinful Saint 7-2, R5: Paulinas Knockout 12-1, R7: Dulce Creek Senator 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Kisses N Candy 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Figures have slipped: 86, 78, 77 over its last three. Purse drops from $30,000 to $5,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on May 29; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValyJunJuv30k	7th/10 -1L	77	11-1	b LB	No final bid
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	3rd/7 by nk	78	4.5-1	b LB	Finished evenly
7/13	PRM	1.13636f D	MSW	Won/8	86	0.5-1	b LB	Pulled away

8La SiccariaG. Gutierrez · K. WillisGutierrez · WillisA94 99 70▲▲+15↕2-1Fair 3-125%▲▲ Big jump +1594 99 70 ↕A2

Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–99 · Last 3 figs 94 99 70

Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez 32% career 5-for-86 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Kasey Willis 35% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Striking Favorite 10-1, R7: Shez A Fabulous Gal 12-1 · Trainer R3: Striking Favorite 10-1, R7: Shez A Fabulous Gal 12-1

WON LAST

Tops the field on speed figures, a 99 against 95 for the next best. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse allowance race at WRD at 17-1.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 215d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/9 by 3½	94	17-1	b L	Closed fast;got up
8/27	SRR	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/6	99	5.9-1	b	Gate to wire
8/19	SRR	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	7th/10 -2L	70	50-1	b	Brk out;bmpd hard

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 11

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

8 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

5:10 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#1 · 31%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Wanna Ferarri (a tactical type, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 92 · 75. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 La Siccaria at 2-1. Use #6 Aj Hard Player in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 LA SICCARIA (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#8 LA SICCARIA — our #2 number, about right at the windows (26.5% to their 26.9%).
#1 WANNA FERARRI — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 23.3%, they've got 20.2%.
#6 AJ HARD PLAYER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.4% to their 16.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#1 WANNA FERARRI — we make it 23.3%, the morning line works out to 20.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Wanna Ferarri, #2 Pasadena Rose, #3 Kiss My Tail Feather.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Wanna Ferarri2Pasadena Rose3Kiss My Tail Feather4Bett The Limit5Suzes Relentless6Aj Hard Player7Bad N Bougie 1238La Siccaria

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Bad N Bougie 123

Bett The Limit

Pasadena Rose

Wanna Ferarri

Kiss My Tail Feather

Suzes Relentless

Aj Hard Player

La Siccaria

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