Pick sheet

Race 52:40 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Ask Her to Fly, is 45% to win (morning line implies 33%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #7 Ask Her to Fly ML 8-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best ★ Best at 1.81818f dirt: 90

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · Dist 8: 3-2-1 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 90 · 56 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	ALB	2f D	AllAmFutG1 G1	2nd/8 -1½L	102	24-1	b L	Solid bid;up for place
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -1L	97	0.7-1	b L	Followed winner;
7/12	ALB	1.81818f D	RainbFutG1 G1	8th/10 -1¾L	90	5.8-1	b L	Bumped start

Case: Last out 2nd in the AllAmFutG1-G1 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 102-97-90. Best at today's distance 90. 3-for-8 at the distance. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Contender #6 Dansing Queeen ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +7

Jockey C. Cardenas · Trainer J. Gonzales · Dist 3: 2-1-0 · 120 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/5	ARP	1.59091f D	sCheryCrkFu61k	Won/9 by ½	95	1.5-1	b LB	Hop st;strng strdslate
6/19	ARP	1.59091f D	sFutTrl6000	Won/6	105	0.3-1	b LB	Much the best
5/3	RP	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/10 by hd	71	2.3-1	b L	Brk in;dueled;denied

Case: Last out won in the sCheryCrkFu61k at ARP. Last Brisnet figures 95-105-71. 2-for-3 at the distance. J. Gonzales / C. Cardenas.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Off 120 days.

Use #4 Why So Political ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 · career best ≡ Steady 87–94 Last out 3rd in the sMystrFuRG2-G2 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 94-93-94. 3-for-9 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / J. Soto. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Soto · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 2: 0-0-1 · Dist 9: 3-0-2 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	sMystrFuRG2 G2	3rd/10 -½L	94	34-1	b L	Surged late;good try
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	4th/9	93	2.5-1	b L	Speed;overtaken
8/20	CBY	1.59091f D	NorthlnFut59k	Won/9 by hd	94	1.6-1	b	Drew clear late

Narrowing the field: A #4, #6, #7 · B #1, #2, #8 · C #5 · ? #3 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

R5 WRD · Trial

2:40 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 8 runners2:40 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Southard KissesA. Martinez · S. CappsMartinez · CappsB85 79 56▲▲+19↕15-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best85 79 56 ↕B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–85 · Last 3 figs 85 79 56

Jockey Aram S Martinez 33% career 9-for-48 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Stacey Capps 28% career 8-for-46 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Trainer R1: Arock 5-1, R2: Sweet Lorali 2-1, R10: Relentless Ruth 3-1

Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Figures are climbing: 56, 79, 85 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 59d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.36364f D	MSW	4th/10 -3L	85	23-1	b L	Crowded st;mild rally
7/17	FMT	1½f D	sMdSpWt	6th/9 -4L	79	16-1	b L	Awk start;crowded late
7/3	FMT	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	7th/7 -5L	56	30-1	b L	Tough start;trailed

2Paulinas KnockoutE. Escobedo · M. JungersEscobedo · JungersB79 91 80▼-5@trip 7912-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -579 91 80@trip 79B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 91 80

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 8-for-61 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Dynastys Princess 12-1, R3: Sp Sinful Saint 7-2, R7: Dulce Creek Senator 3-1, R8: Miss Dashin Hocks 7-2 +1 more · Trainer R2: Dynastys Princess 12-1

A big drop, stakes to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why. 5th last time, 4½ lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 58d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 -4½L	79	12-1	L	Needed kick
8/13	RET	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 -1½L	91	12-1	L	Gaining late
7/2	RET	1.59091f D	sFutTrl10000	5th/10 -2½L	80	11-1	L	Weakened

3Kiss You NotB. Candanosa · S. MendozaCandanosa · Mendoza?10-1Fair 20-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R4: Sherrys Relentless 20-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1, R7: Browneyegal 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1, R7: Browneyegal 2-1, R8: Js Ivory 15-1 +1 more
Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Kiss My Hocks and Midnight Cartel breeding. It was the fastest 1.1F work of its morning on Mar 18 (:13.60).
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Mar 18 (1.1F in :13.60), 2 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Kiss My Hocks out of Midnight Cartel (Carters Cartel)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/21 RP 1f :12.80 handily 3/9 from gate
10/7 RP 1½f :17.60 handily 3/3
6/25 FMT 1f :12.80 handily 6/7
3/18 RP 1.13636f :13.60 handily 1/44 ● bullet from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/21	RP	1f	:12.80	handily	3/9	from gate
10/7	RP	1½f	:17.60	handily	3/3
6/25	FMT	1f	:12.80	handily	6/7
3/18	RP	1.13636f	:13.60	handily	1/44	● bullet from gate

4Why So PoliticalJ. Soto · J. OlmsteadSoto · OlmsteadA94 93 94▲+3≡7-2Fair 5-117%▲ Up +3 · career best94 93 94 ≡A3

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 87–94 · Last 3 figs 94 93 94

Jockey Jhaciel Soto 26% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

Beaten ½ length for 3rd in a 10-horse race at WRD. Purse drops from $75,000 to $5,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 235 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	sMystrFuRG2 G2	3rd/10 -½L	94	34-1	b L	Surged late;good try
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	4th/9	93	2.5-1	b L	Speed;overtaken
8/20	CBY	1.59091f D	NorthlnFut59k	Won/9 by hd	94	1.6-1	b	Drew clear late

5Singles Famous EagleA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughC79 67@trip 6720-1Fair 50-12%—79 67@trip 67C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 67 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 67
Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: First Scout 15-1, R10: A Political Assassin 15-1, R11: Aj Hard Player 4-1 · Trainer R2: First Scout 15-1, R10: A Political Assassin 15-1, R11: Aj Hard Player 4-1
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
A 87-day gap since its last race. Worked 1.1F in :13.80 on Apr 1, 3rd of 43 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 20 (1F in :11.40), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/7 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 10th/10 -2½L 79 36-1 L Jock lost irons; st
6/27 ALB 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 8th/10 -3L 67 30-1 L Came in start; evenly

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	10th/10 -2½L	79	36-1	L	Jock lost irons; st
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	8th/10 -3L	67	30-1	L	Came in start; evenly

6Dansing QueeenC. Cardenas · J. GonzalesCardenas · GonzalesA95 105 71▲+73-1Fair 7-223%▲ Up +795 105 71A2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Last 3 figs 95 105 71

Jockey Christian Cardenas 32% career · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career

Also today · Jockey R2: La Pacionista 15-1, R11: Bett The Limit 6-1 · Trainer R2: La Pacionista 15-1, R11: Bett The Limit 6-1

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 105, with 102 next best. Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 15 (1.1F in :13.80), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/5	ARP	1.59091f D	sCheryCrkFu61k	Won/9 by ½	95	1.5-1	b LB	Hop st;strng strdslate
6/19	ARP	1.59091f D	sFutTrl6000	Won/6	105	0.3-1	b LB	Much the best
5/3	RP	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/10 by hd	71	2.3-1	b L	Brk in;dueled;denied

7Ask Her to Fly★R. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA102 97 90▲▲+10@trip 908-5Fair 6-544%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best102 97 90@trip 90A★ Best at the trip 901

Card model 44% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 102 97 90

★ Best at the trip 90

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 9-for-57 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss American 2-1, R4: Flying Fire 2-1, R7: Red Sticky Candy 6-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Has moved up each time out, 90 to 97 to 102. 3 wins from 8 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.20 on Oct 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	ALB	2f D	AllAmFutG1 G1	2nd/8 -1½L	102	24-1	b L	Solid bid;up for place
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/10 -1L	97	0.7-1	b L	Followed winner;
7/12	ALB	1.81818f D	RainbFutG1 G1	8th/10 -1¾L	90	5.8-1	b L	Bumped start

8Kisses N CandyF. Calderon · F. ManriquezCalderon · ManriquezB83 78 81▲+4≡20-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +483 78 81 ≡B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 77–83 · Last 3 figs 83 78 81

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #2 of 36 · Trainer Fernando Ivan Manriquez 28% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Bp Southern Money 6-1, R6: Youve Got The Look 3-1, R7: Bp History Maker 4-1, R9: My Flying Eagle 10-1 · Trainer R11: Bad N Bougie 123 10-1

0 for 7 at today's distance. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 135 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	WRD	1.13636f D	MSW	6th/9 -1¼L	83	0.9-1	b L	Reared st;no late kick
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	4th/9 -2L	78	6.9-1	b LB	Outnodded for show
8/7	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	3rd/8 -2¼L	81	0.5-1	b LB	Strong finish

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

8 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

2:40 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#7 · 44%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Ask Her To Fly (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 102 · 97 · 90. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Dansing Queeen at 3-1. Use #4 Why So Political in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 ASK HER TO FLY (8-5) — our number agrees.
#7 ASK HER TO FLY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (34.9% to their 32.5%).
#6 DANSING QUEEEN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.1% to their 21.1%).
#4 WHY SO POLITICAL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.0% to their 18.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Southard Kisses, #2 Paulinas Knockout, #3 Kiss You Not.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Southard Kisses2Paulinas Knockout3Kiss You Not4Why So Political5Singles Famous Eagle6Dansing Queeen7Ask Her To Fly8Kisses N Candy

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Dansing Queeen

Southard Kisses

Paulinas Knockout

Why So Political

Singles Famous Eagle

Ask Her To Fly

Kisses N Candy

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 EXACTA / (.50) TRIFECTA / (.10) SUPERFECTA / $2 DAILY DOUBLE

(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 5-6-7)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.