Pick sheet

Race 104:45 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Im a Boujee Chick, is 34% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 Im a Boujee Chick ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +4

Jockey A. Alvidrez · Trainer J. Olmstead · Dist 7: 0-4-2 · 38 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValyJunJuv30k	2nd/10	85	13-1	b LB	Bid;led late;missed
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	3rd/9 -3L	78	5.8-1	b LB	Edged closer late
8/3	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/6 -½L	78	0.2-1	b LB	In aim;second best

Case: Last out 2nd in the ValyJunJuv30k at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 85-78-78. 0-for-7 at the distance. J. Olmstead / A. Alvidrez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Contender #4 Relentless Ruth ML 3-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best

Jockey C. Smith · Trainer S. Capps · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 4: 1-1-1 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	5th/10 -1L	92	6.6-1	b L	Vied;yielded late
5/30	RP	1.59091f D	fsFLLdBugR G3	2nd/9 -1L	75	3.0-1	b L	Close up;no match late
4/24	RP	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/9	83	1.9-1	b L	Instant fire; held

Case: Last out 5th/10 -1L in the Alw20560n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 92-75-83. 1-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. S. Capps / C. Smith.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #7 Cyber Spy ML 5-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 81–87 Last out 4th/8 -2L in the sFutTrl5000 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 84-87-87. 2-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 5: 2-0-0 · 49 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	4th/8 -2L	84	5.2-1	b L	Step slow;no late kick
8/2	PRM	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	Won/5	87	2.0-1	b LB	Kicked clear
7/4	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldFut264k	5th/10 by hd	87	27-1	b LB	Steadied late

Longshot #8 Secret Pursuit ML 8-1 Fair 7-1 Model #4 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best ↕ Up and down 65–97

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer K. Reed · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 4: 1-0-1 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	MCL 25k	Won/9	97	1.3-1	b L	Led;kicked clear late
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	7th/7 -4¼L	65	16-1	b LB	Carried out wide
4/3	RP	1½f D	sFutTrl15000	4th/9 by nk	80	3.5-1	b L	Hard try; not enough

Case: Last out won in the Md25000 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 97-65-80. 1-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. K. Reed / J. Pulido.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f).

Narrowing the field: A #4, #5, #8 · B #2, #3, #7 · C #1, #6

R10 WRD · Trial

4:45 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 8 runners4:45 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Kiss My BajaG. Linares · O. NunezLinares · NunezC75 80 76▼-7@trip 8920-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -775 80 76@trip 89C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 80 76

Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Oscar Nunez 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Fdd Baja 10-1 · Trainer R2: Fdd Baja 10-1

LASIX 1ST

Class relief: stakes last time, stakes nongraded today. New trainer: Lira Jesus Huitron had it last time, Oscar Nunez now.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 191 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/10 -1¾L	75	21-1	b	Brk in;bmp;even late
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	5th/9 -1L	80	5.7-1	b	No menace late
6/25	RET	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/9	76	0.4-1	b	Strong driving finish

2She Makes It SpecialM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerB91 93 70▲▲+9↕15-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +991 93 70 ↕B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 70–93 · Last 3 figs 91 93 70

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 13-for-90 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Electrifying 2-1, R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R6: Leaf On The Wind 5-1, R7: Penelope Cruisin 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Electrifying 2-1, R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R6: Sheza Candy Wagon 20-1, R8: A Painted Fling 2-1 +1 more

Purse drops from $75,000 to $5,000 against its last start. 6th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 69d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	sMystrFuRG2 G2	6th/10 -2L	91	39-1	b L	Broke out;gaining late
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	3rd/9 by nk	93	14-1	b L	Close up;yielded late
5/30	RP	1.59091f D	fsFLLdBugR G3	6th/9 -1L	70	5.1-1	b L	Driftd in front of foe

3A Political AssassinA. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughB89 72 76▲▲+1215-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best89 72 76B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 89 72 76

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: First Scout 15-1, R5: Singles Famous Eagle 20-1, R11: Aj Hard Player 4-1 · Trainer R2: First Scout 15-1, R5: Singles Famous Eagle 20-1, R11: Aj Hard Player 4-1

Finished 2nd in a 9-horse allowance race at PRM, beaten 2 lengths. Was running in allowance; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Steadily drifted out last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 18d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	PRM	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/9 -2L	89	6.9-1	b LB	Steadily drifted out
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	5th/8 -1¼L	72	2.1-1	b LB	Bumped between start
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	8th/10 -4¾L	76	13-1	b L	No rally;

4Relentless RuthC. Smith · S. CappsSmith · CappsA92 75 83▲▲+133-1Fair 4-120%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best92 75 83A2

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Last 3 figs 92 75 83

Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 9-for-94 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Stacey Capps 28% career 8-for-46 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Arock 5-1, R2: Sweet Lorali 2-1, R4: Graceious 15-1, R6: Tossin Back Time 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Arock 5-1, R2: Sweet Lorali 2-1, R5: Southard Kisses 15-1

Posted the fastest 1F work of the morning on Feb 6, in :11.60. A big drop, allowance to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Feb 6; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	5th/10 -1L	92	6.6-1	b L	Vied;yielded late
5/30	RP	1.59091f D	fsFLLdBugR G3	2nd/9 -1L	75	3.0-1	b L	Close up;no match late
4/24	RP	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/9	83	1.9-1	b L	Instant fire; held

5Im a Boujee ChickA. Alvidrez · J. OlmsteadAlvidrez · OlmsteadA85 78 78▲+42-1Fair 2-134%▲ Up +485 78 78A1

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 85 78 78

Jockey Armando Alvidrez 28% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R6: Jessa Southern Girl 8-5 · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

Winless in 7 starts at this distance. Runs for $5,000 today after a $30,000 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 236 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValyJunJuv30k	2nd/10	85	13-1	b LB	Bid;led late;missed
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	3rd/9 -3L	78	5.8-1	b LB	Edged closer late
8/3	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/6 -½L	78	0.2-1	b LB	In aim;second best

6Jessys DynastyJ. Brooks · E. WillisBrooks · WillisC77 83 66►6-1Fair 12-18%► Steady77 83 66C

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 77 83 66

Jockey J D Brooks 26% career 0-for-28 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Eddie D Willis 35% career 1-for-23 on dirt this meet (4%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Prince Dynasty 6-1, R6: Sheza Candy Wagon 20-1 · Trainer R1: Prince Dynasty 6-1

60D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST

Returns from a 155-day break, the biggest in the field. Worked 1F in :12.40 on Jul 29, 2nd of 7 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/31	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/9 -1L	77	3.3-1	b	Wide path; drifted in
5/10	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	2nd/6 by nk	83	5.8-1	b	Solid effort outside
4/11	RP	1.36364f D	sMd30000	Won/10	66	14-1	b L	Lugged in;hotfooted

7Cyber SpyR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadB84 87 87►≡5-1Fair 6-114%► Steady84 87 87 ≡B3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–87 · Last 3 figs 84 87 87

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 9-for-57 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss American 2-1, R4: Flying Fire 2-1, R5: Ask Her To Fly 8-5 +3 more · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. 2nd of 23 at 1F on Mar 14, in :11.80.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 15d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	4th/8 -2L	84	5.2-1	b L	Step slow;no late kick
8/2	PRM	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	Won/5	87	2.0-1	b LB	Kicked clear
7/4	PRM	1.59091f D	PRMGoldFut264k	5th/10 by hd	87	27-1	b LB	Steadied late

8Secret PursuitLSJ. Pulido · K. ReedPulido · ReedA97 65 80▲▲+20↕8-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best97 65 80 ↕ALS

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–97 · Last 3 figs 97 65 80

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 13% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 14-for-41 on dirt this meet (34%), #1 of 36 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R4: Hott Take 8-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R8: Suite Talker 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Bp Southern Money 6-1

WON LAST

Tops the field on speed figures, a 97 against 93 for the next best. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at WRD at 1.3-1.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.20 on Feb 27 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	WRD	1.36364f D	MCL 25k	Won/9	97	1.3-1	b L	Led;kicked clear late
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	7th/7 -4¼L	65	16-1	b LB	Carried out wide
4/3	RP	1½f D	sFutTrl15000	4th/9 by nk	80	3.5-1	b L	Hard try; not enough

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 10

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

8 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

4:45 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 34%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Im A Boujee Chick (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 85 · 78 · 78. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Relentless Ruth at 3-1. Use #7 Cyber Spy in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 IM A BOUJEE CHICK (2-1) — our number agrees.
#5 IM A BOUJEE CHICK — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.0% to their 28.3%).
#4 RELENTLESS RUTH — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 21.2%).
#7 CYBER SPY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.4% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Kiss My Baja, #2 She Makes It Special, #3 A Political Assassin.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Kiss My Baja2She Makes It Special3A Political Assassin4Relentless Ruth5Im A Boujee Chick6Jessys Dynasty7Cyber Spy8Secret Pursuit

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

A Political Assassin

Im A Boujee Chick

Kiss My Baja

She Makes It Special

Relentless Ruth

Jessys Dynasty

Cyber Spy

Secret Pursuit

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