Pick sheet

Race 83:55 PM TrialLate Pick 4 starts

1.8F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, A Painted Fling, is 31% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #2 A Painted Fling ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best

Jockey M. Delgado · Trainer J. Joiner · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 5: 2-0-0 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	Won/10	98	2.0-1	b L	Led;dug in;held well
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	4th/8 -3½L	85	3.7-1	b L	Broke in;came on late
5/24	RP	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10	88	1.3-1	b L	Humbled rivals

Case: Last out won in the Alw20560n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 98-85-88. 2-for-5 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Joiner / M. Delgado.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f).

Contender #5 Miss Dashin Hocks ML 7-2 Fair 5-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +8

Jockey E. Escobedo · Trainer J. Davis · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 8: 2-2-0 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	6th/9 -1¾L	95	17-1	b L	Chased btw;no kick
9/26	SWF	1.59091f D	SWF Juv25k	5th/10 -½L	85	5.8-1	b LB	Even bid
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/8 -½L	92	4.5-1	b LB	Erratic;battled;missed

Case: Last out 6th/9 -1¾L in the Alw21160n3l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 95-85-92. 2-for-8 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Davis / E. Escobedo.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #8 Suite Talker ML 8-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 Last out 4th/10 -½L in the MdSpWt at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 86-64. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Vane / J. Pulido. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). 0-for-2 at the distance.

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer J. Vane · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · 36 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	4th/10 -½L	86	3.5-1	b L	Up close;outfinished
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	9th/10 -2½L	64	9.6-1	b L	Bumped start

Longshot #6 Gold Prize Honey ML 12-1 Fair 15-1 Model #6 ► Steady ≡ Steady 82–87

Jockey R. Cruz · Trainer J. Ruiz · KEE 2: 0-0-1 · Dist 6: 1-1-2 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	6th/9 -1½L	82	4.4-1	b L	Close up;weakened
9/22	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	3rd/10 -1L	87	8.8-1	b L	Off bit slow;up 3rd
7/9	FMT	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/10	83	1.4-1	b L	Led;held off foe

Case: Last out 6th/9 -1½L in the Alw20900n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 82-87-83. 1-for-6 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Ruiz / R. Cruz.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f).

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #5 · B #1, #3, #9 · C #6, #7, #8

Angles: #7 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 81)

R8 WRD · Trial

3:55 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 9 runners3:55 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Js IvoryB. Candanosa · S. MendozaCandanosa · MendozaB88 9015-1Fair 30-13%—88 90B
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 88 90
Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R4: Sherrys Relentless 20-1, R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1, R7: Browneyegal 2-1 +1 more
Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
TROUBLED TRIP Bobbled st; gaining last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 77d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/6 WRD 1.13636f D MSW 4th/9 -2½L 88 4.7-1 b Bobbled st;gaining
8/27 SRR 1f D MSW 4th/7 90 3.5-1 b Hung late

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/6	WRD	1.13636f D	MSW	4th/9 -2½L	88	4.7-1	b	Bobbled st;gaining
8/27	SRR	1f D	MSW	4th/7	90	3.5-1	b	Hung late

2A Painted FlingM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerA98 85 88▲▲+132-1Fair 2-131%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best98 85 88A1

Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Last 3 figs 98 85 88

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 13-for-90 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Electrifying 2-1, R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R6: Leaf On The Wind 5-1, R7: Penelope Cruisin 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Electrifying 2-1, R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R6: Sheza Candy Wagon 20-1, R9: Wr Hott Train 20-1 +1 more

WON LAST

Won last out in a 10-horse allowance race at WRD. Tops the field on speed figures, a 98 against 95 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 69d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	Won/10	98	2.0-1	b L	Led;dug in;held well
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	4th/8 -3½L	85	3.7-1	b L	Broke in;came on late
5/24	RP	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10	88	1.3-1	b L	Humbled rivals

3Jess MaggieR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadB91 85 84▲▲+8@trip 816-1Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best91 85 84@trip 81B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 85 84

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 9-for-57 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss American 2-1, R4: Flying Fire 2-1, R5: Ask Her To Fly 8-5 +3 more · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

Has moved up each time out, 84 to 85 to 91. A big drop, maiden special weight to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 106d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/5	WRD	1½f D	sMdSpWt	4th/10 -½L	91	7.3-1	b L	Step slow;outfinished
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	4th/8 by hd	85	5.2-1	b L	Dueled;yielded late
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	6th/10 -1¾L	84	5.4-1	b L	No final kick;

4Remember Thiz KissC. Smith · S. ValdiviaSmith · ValdiviaA87 95 82►4-1Fair 7-113%► Steady87 95 82A

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 87 95 82

Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 9-for-94 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Samuel E Valdivia 29% career 12-for-63 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Arock 5-1, R2: Sweet Lorali 2-1, R4: Graceious 15-1, R6: Tossin Back Time 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Tossin Back Time 20-1

Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded. Worked 1.1F in :13.80 on Jun 3, 3rd of 10 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 152d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	4th/10 -2½L	87	13-1	b L	Stmbld st;no late kick
9/6	SRR	1.59091f D	Boco Fut266k	4th/10 -½L	95	7.9-1	b	Game effort
8/19	SRR	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9	82	4.0-1	b	Duel ins;up

5Miss Dashin HocksE. Escobedo · J. DavisEscobedo · DavisA95 85 92▲▲+87-2Fair 5-117%▲▲ Big jump +895 85 92A2

Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Last 3 figs 95 85 92

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 8-for-61 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 6-for-36 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Dynastys Princess 12-1, R3: Sp Sinful Saint 7-2, R5: Paulinas Knockout 12-1, R7: Dulce Creek Senator 3-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Sp Sinful Saint 7-2, R7: Dulce Creek Senator 3-1

Gets a new rider, Edwin G Escobedo replacing Angel O Ramirez. 6th last time, 1¾ lengths back, in a field of 9.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 206d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	6th/9 -1¾L	95	17-1	b L	Chased btw;no kick
9/26	SWF	1.59091f D	SWF Juv25k	5th/10 -½L	85	5.8-1	b LB	Even bid
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/8 -½L	92	4.5-1	b LB	Erratic;battled;missed

6Gold Prize HoneyLSR. Cruz · J. RuizCruz · RuizC82 87 83►≡12-1Fair 15-16%► Steady82 87 83 ≡CLS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–87 · Last 3 figs 82 87 83

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career ★ 26-for-116 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 36 · Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz 30% career 7-for-85 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Chin Up Buttercup 9-2, R7: Shez Sin Tacha 15-1 · Trainer R3: Skyline Mistress 15-1, R7: Shez Sin Tacha 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

The Feb 19 work, 1.1F in :13.20, was the best time at that distance that morning. Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP 1.1f in :13.20 on Feb 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	6th/9 -1½L	82	4.4-1	b L	Close up;weakened
9/22	WRD	1.59091f D	Alw n2l	3rd/10 -1L	87	8.8-1	b L	Off bit slow;up 3rd
7/9	FMT	1.59091f D	MSW	Won/10	83	1.4-1	b L	Led;held off foe

7Kiss My Nine Eleven▼J. Dominguez · L. DominguezDominguez · DominguezC72 81 80▼▼-9@trip 7220-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -972 81 80@trip 72C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 81)

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 81 80

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (72 vs 81)

Jockey Jonathan Dominguez 33% career 1-for-24 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Luis A Dominguez 32% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Luis A Dominguez takes over the training from Marla Dayana Vargas. Beaten 5¼ lengths for 8th in a 9-horse allowance race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 0 works in 30d, last 36d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.81818f D	Alw n1x	8th/9 -5¼L	72	5.4-1	b L	Step slow;angld out
7/3	FMT	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	2nd/7 -1L	81	2.0-1	b L	Stumbled st;gaining
5/30	RP	1.59091f D	HrtgPlFuG1 G1	7th/9 -½L	80	24-1	b L	Lugged in partway

8Suite TalkerJ. Pulido · J. VanePulido · VaneC86 648-1Fair 7-113%—86 64C3
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 86 64
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 14-for-41 on dirt this meet (34%), #1 of 36 · Trainer Jed H Vane 34% career ★ 12-for-28 on dirt this meet (43%), #2 of 46 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R4: Hott Take 8-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R10: Secret Pursuit 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R4: Hott Take 8-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R7: Bp History Maker 4-1 +2 more
2nd of 30 at 1F on Apr 9, in :12.60. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 47d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 WRD 1.59091f D MSW 4th/10 -½L 86 3.5-1 b L Up close;outfinished
8/7 RET 1.59091f D FutTrl10000 9th/10 -2½L 64 9.6-1 b L Bumped start

9LacylynR. Olmstead · J. OlmsteadOlmstead · OlmsteadB74 76 78▼-610-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -674 76 78B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 74 76 78

Jockey Ryder Olmstead 14% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R4: Daylynn 10-1, R7: Miss Southern Perry 20-1, R9: Divinitty 4-1 · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

Winless in 6 starts at this distance. Off 45 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 235d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	PRM	1½f D	MSW	4th/8	74	0.5-1	b LB	Yielded late
8/15	PRM	1.59091f D	PrmJuvChal56k	7th/8 -1¾L	76	22-1	b LB	Solid bump start
7/26	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	4th/7 -1½L	78	5.1-1	b LB	Chased evenly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

3:55 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 31%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 A Painted Fling (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 98 · 85 · 88. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #5 Miss Dashin Hocks at 7-2. Use #8 Suite Talker in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 A PAINTED FLING (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 A PAINTED FLING — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.1% to their 25.9%).
#5 MISS DASHIN HOCKS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.7% to their 17.3%).
#4 REMEMBER THIZ KISS — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.2% to their 15.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 SUITE TALKER (8-1) — our fair 9.9% is above the morning line's 8.6%; supported by: top barn (34%) + jockey (44%) at 8-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Js Ivory, #2 A Painted Fling, #3 Jess Maggie.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Js Ivory2A Painted Fling3Jess Maggie4Remember Thiz Kiss5Miss Dashin Hocks6Gold Prize Honey7Kiss My Nine Eleven8Suite Talker9Lacylyn

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Lacylyn

Js Ivory

A Painted Fling

Jess Maggie

Remember Thiz Kiss

Miss Dashin Hocks

Gold Prize Honey

Kiss My Nine Eleven

Suite Talker

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 EXACTA / (.50) TRIFECTA / (.10) SUPERFECTA / $2 DAILY DOUBLE

(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 8-9-10) / (.50) PICK 4 (RACES 8-9-10-11)

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