Pick sheet

Race 31:50 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Miss American, is 35% to win (morning line implies 26%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #9 Miss American ML 2-1 Fair 9-5 Model #1 ► Steady

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 7: 1-3-2 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 82 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	sMystrFuRG2 G2	7th/10 -1¼L	88	3.4-1	b L	Tough start;no rally
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	Won/8	92	0.7-1	b L	Bmpd st;duel;surged
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/9 -1L	91	1.3-1	b L	Steady effort;

Case: Last out 7th/10 -1¼L in the sMystrFuRG2-G2 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 88-92-91. Best at today's distance 82. 1-for-7 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #5 Sp Sinful Saint ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 91–97

Jockey E. Escobedo · Trainer J. Davis · Dist 8: 3-0-0 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SWF	1.59091f D	SWF Fut300k	5th/8 -1¾L	93	6.1-1	b LB	Even effort
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/8	97	0.3-1	b LB	Led;dug in late;held
8/9	WYO	1.59091f D	WyoGovCpFu270k	4th/10 -1¾L	91	5.8-1	b LB	Broke well; outrun

Case: Last out 5th/8 -1¾L in the SWF Fut300k at SWF. Last Brisnet figures 93-97-91. 3-for-8 at the distance. J. Davis / E. Escobedo.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Use #8 Heritage of Power ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -3 ≡ Steady 83–91 Last out 9th/10 -2L in the sMystrFuRG2-G2 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 85-91-90. 2-for-6 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. S. Mendoza / B. Candanosa. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey B. Candanosa · Trainer S. Mendoza · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · Dist 6: 2-1-1 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	sMystrFuRG2 G2	9th/10 -2L	85	24-1	b	In tight start;no bid
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	2nd/8	91	1.9-1	b	Outfinished;clear 2nd
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	Cherokee S25k	Won/9	90	7.5-1	b	Stmbld;duel;prevailed

Longshot #4 Relentless Chic ML 20-1 Fair 20-1 Model #7

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer J. Vane · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 75 · 44 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	6th/9 -1½L	75	9.1-1	b L	Shoe repair;wknd
8/7	RET	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	9th/10 -2½L	76	13-1	b L	No threat

Case: Last out 6th/9 -1½L in the FutTrl10000 at LS. Last Brisnet figures 75-76. Best at today's distance 75. 0-for-2 at the distance. J. Vane / J. Pulido.

Knock: Never raced at Will Rogers Downs. 0-for-2 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #5, #8, #9 · B #1, #3, #6 · C #2, #4, #7

R3 WRD · Trial

1:50 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 9 runners1:50 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Striking FavoriteG. Gutierrez · K. WillisGutierrez · WillisB92 80 86▲▲+1010-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best92 80 86B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 92 80 86

Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez 32% career 5-for-86 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Kasey Willis 35% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Shez A Fabulous Gal 12-1, R11: La Siccaria 2-1 · Trainer R7: Shez A Fabulous Gal 12-1, R11: La Siccaria 2-1

LASIX 1ST

Drops from allowance to stakes nongraded. Beaten a neck for 2nd in a 9-horse allowance race at SRR.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 15d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	SRR	1.59091f D	Alw nc	2nd/9 by nk	92	2.3-1	b	Game2nd;EQamb;bled
5/29	RP	1.59091f D	HertgPlJuv100k	6th/10 -1¾L	80	6.5-1	b L	Urged; lacked rally
5/8	RP	1.59091f D	FutTrl15000	Won/7	86	0.8-1	b L	Kickd clr in 2d gear

2Skyline MistressR. Raudales · J. RuizRaudales · RuizC80 60 77▲+7↕15-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +780 60 77 ↕C

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–83 · Last 3 figs 80 60 77

Jockey Rolando Raudales 29% career 1-for-18 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz 30% career 7-for-85 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Trainer R7: Shez Sin Tacha 15-1, R8: Gold Prize Honey 12-1

Was running in maiden claiming $10,000; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Winless in 6 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 80d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.13636f D	sMd10000	4th/10 -2¼L	80	8.0-1	b L	Bmpd st;mild rally
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	9th/9 -7¾L	60	28-1	b L	Crowded st;trailed
7/17	FMT	1½f D	sMdSpWt	7th/9 -2½L	77	12-1	b L	Bobbled st;weakened

3Chin Up ButtercupR. Cruz · D. KeenerCruz · KeenerB89 869-2Fair 8-111%—89 86B
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 89 86
Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career ★ 26-for-116 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 36 · Trainer Dee Keener 35% career 7-for-37 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R7: Shez Sin Tacha 15-1, R8: Gold Prize Honey 12-1 · Trainer R7: Penelope Cruisin 15-1
2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 8. A 49-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 62d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/14 WRD 1.59091f D sFutTrl5000 2nd/8 -1L 89 1.4-1 b L Vied;chased;2nd best
3/7 RP 1.36364f D FutTrl10000 Won/7 86 8.7-1 b L Giddy upd n gone
4Relentless ChicLSJ. Pulido · J. VanePulido · VaneC75 76@trip 7520-1Fair 20-15%—75 76@trip 75CLS
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 75 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 76
LS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 14-for-41 on dirt this meet (34%), #1 of 36 · Trainer Jed H Vane 34% career ★ 12-for-28 on dirt this meet (43%), #2 of 46 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R4: Hott Take 8-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R8: Suite Talker 8-1, R10: Secret Pursuit 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R4: Hott Take 8-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R7: Bp History Maker 4-1, R8: Suite Talker 8-1 +2 more
Changes barns, from Kash Reed to Jed H Vane. A big drop, stakes to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 8 (1F in :12.20), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 6th/9 -1½L 75 9.1-1 b L Shoe repair;wknd
8/7 RET 1.59091f D FutTrl10000 9th/10 -2½L 76 13-1 b L No threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	2nd/8 -1L	89	1.4-1	b L	Vied;chased;2nd best
3/7	RP	1.36364f D	FutTrl10000	Won/7	86	8.7-1	b L	Giddy upd n gone

5Sp Sinful SaintE. Escobedo · J. DavisEscobedo · DavisA93 97 91►≡7-2Fair 4-119%► Steady93 97 91 ≡A2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 91–97 · Last 3 figs 93 97 91

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 8-for-61 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 6-for-36 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Dynastys Princess 12-1, R5: Paulinas Knockout 12-1, R7: Dulce Creek Senator 3-1, R8: Miss Dashin Hocks 7-2 +1 more · Trainer R7: Dulce Creek Senator 3-1, R8: Miss Dashin Hocks 7-2

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 97, with 92 next best. Has won 3 of 8 going today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 207d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SWF	1.59091f D	SWF Fut300k	5th/8 -1¾L	93	6.1-1	b LB	Even effort
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/8	97	0.3-1	b LB	Led;dug in late;held
8/9	WYO	1.59091f D	WyoGovCpFu270k	4th/10 -1¾L	91	5.8-1	b LB	Broke well; outrun

6Miss CyberlizeurA. Alvidrez · J. OlmsteadAlvidrez · OlmsteadB83 80 72▲▲+12↕8-1Fair 20-15%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best83 80 72 ↕B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–83 · Last 3 figs 83 80 72

Jockey Armando Alvidrez 28% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Jessa Southern Girl 8-5, R10: Im A Boujee Chick 2-1 · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, this race: Miss American 2-1, R4: Daylynn 10-1 +14 more

Has moved up each time out, 72 to 80 to 83. Finished 3rd in an 8-horse stakes race at WRD, beaten 2½ lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 233d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	3rd/8 -2½L	83	10-1	b L	Chased top 2;safe 3rd
8/3	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/6	80	12-1	b LB	Gamely; held firm
7/12	PRM	1½f D	MSW	4th/7 by hd	72	2.4-1	b LB	Bmpd st;yield late

7Firstdownfamous RacyF. Fonseca-Soto · D. PeeryFonseca-Soto · PeeryC69 56 77►30-1Fair 99-1<1%► Steady69 56 77C

Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 69 56 77

Jockey Fernando Fonseca-Soto 28% career 1-for-29 on dirt this meet (3%) · Trainer Durk L Peery 28% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Z Rexx 10-1

Class relief: maiden special weight last time, stakes nongraded today. Last out was 10th, 6½ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 77d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.36364f D	MSW	10th/10 -6½L	69	52-1	b L	Slow into stride
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	10th/10 -6¾L	56	20-1	b L	In tight st;no factor
7/8	FMT	1.36364f D	MSW	5th/9 -¾L	77	16-1	b L	Broke in;no late kick

8Heritage of PowerB. Candanosa · S. MendozaCandanosa · MendozaA85 91 90▼-3≡4-1Fair 6-114%▼ Down -385 91 90 ≡A3

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 83–91 · Last 3 figs 85 91 90

Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Sherrys Relentless 20-1, R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1, R7: Browneyegal 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1, R7: Browneyegal 2-1, R8: Js Ivory 15-1 +1 more

Bryan Candanosa takes over from Ruben Castro in the saddle. Purse drops from $75,000 to $5,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 62d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	sMystrFuRG2 G2	9th/10 -2L	85	24-1	b	In tight start;no bid
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	2nd/8	91	1.9-1	b	Outfinished;clear 2nd
7/18	FMT	1.59091f D	Cherokee S25k	Won/9	90	7.5-1	b	Stmbld;duel;prevailed

9Miss AmericanR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA88 92 91►@trip 822-1Fair 9-535%► Steady88 92 91@trip 82A1

Card model 35% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 92 91

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 9-for-57 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Cartier 3-1, R4: Flying Fire 2-1, R5: Ask Her To Fly 8-5, R7: Red Sticky Candy 6-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, this race: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R4: Daylynn 10-1 +14 more

7th last time, 1¼ lengths back, in a field of 10. Purse drops from $75,000 to $5,000 against its last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 106d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	sMystrFuRG2 G2	7th/10 -1¼L	88	3.4-1	b L	Tough start;no rally
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	Won/8	92	0.7-1	b L	Bmpd st;duel;surged
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/9 -1L	91	1.3-1	b L	Steady effort;

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

1:50 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#9 · 35%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #9 Miss American (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 88 · 92 · 91. Backup is #5 Sp Sinful Saint at 7-2. Use #8 Heritage Of Power in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #9 MISS AMERICAN (2-1) — our number agrees.
#9 MISS AMERICAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.5% to their 26.0%).
#5 SP SINFUL SAINT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.3% to their 17.3%).
#8 HERITAGE OF POWER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.8% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Striking Favorite, #2 Skyline Mistress, #3 Chin Up Buttercup.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Striking Favorite2Skyline Mistress3Chin Up Buttercup4Relentless Chic5Sp Sinful Saint6Miss Cyberlizeur7Firstdownfamous Racy8Heritage Of Power9Miss American

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Sp Sinful Saint

Striking Favorite

Skyline Mistress

Chin Up Buttercup

Relentless Chic

Miss Cyberlizeur

Firstdownfamous Racy

Heritage Of Power

Miss American

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$2 EXACTA / (.50) TRIFECTA / (.10) SUPERFECTA / $2 DAILY DOUBLE

(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.