Pick sheet

Race 63:05 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Jessa Southern Girl, is 50% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #7 Jessa Southern Girl ML 8-5 Fair 1-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 87–95

Jockey A. Alvidrez · Trainer J. Olmstead · Dist 7: 5-0-0 · 38 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	Won/10	92	1.4-1	b LB	Sharp; clear
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/8	88	0.1-1	b LB	Much the best
8/15	PRM	1.59091f D	PrmJuvChal56k	Won/8	95	2.0-1	b LB	Kicked clear

Case: Last out won in the ValJunFuG3-G3 at PRM. Last Brisnet figures 92-88-95. 5-for-7 at the distance. J. Olmstead / A. Alvidrez.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Contender #9 Youve Got the Look ML 3-1 Fair 7-1 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best

Jockey F. Calderon · Trainer T. Crawford · Dist 4: 1-1-0 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 79 · 87 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9	89	3.9-1	b L	Ridden hard;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/9	79	25-1	b L	Vied throughout; game
5/23	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	4th/8 -1¾L	87	39-1	b L	Mid pack; no rally

Case: Last out won in the FutTrl10000 at ALB. Last Brisnet figures 89-79-87. Best at today's distance 79. 1-for-4 at the distance. T. Crawford / F. Calderon.

Knock: Off 87 days. Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Use #2 Matilda 4 ML 4-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best Last out 3rd in the Alw20000nc at LS. Last Brisnet figures 90-84-81. 2-for-4 at the distance. S. Mendoza / B. Candanosa. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Jockey B. Candanosa · Trainer S. Mendoza · Dist 4: 2-0-1 · 23 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LS	1.13636f D	Alw nc	3rd/10 -1L	90	9.0-1	b	Stumbld st;btwn
8/15	GIL	1.59091f D	FutTrl9000	Won/8	84	3.4-1	b	Good run held on
4/16	RP	1½f D	MSW	Won/10	81	2.6-1	b	Fired first stride

Longshot #4 Hott Perfection ML 15-1 Fair 15-1 Model #5 ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best

Jockey J. Pulido · Trainer J. Vane · Dist 3: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 80 · 44 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	6th/10 -2¾L	80	12-1	b L	Late surge
6/28	POD	1.59091f D	FutTrl1500	5th/6 -¾L	54	0.9-1	b LB	Drifted out
4/10	RP	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/9 by hd	79	1.3-1	b L	Long duel;outnodded

Case: Last out 6th/10 -2¾L in the FutTrl10000 at LS. Last Brisnet figures 80-54-79. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-3 at the distance. J. Vane / J. Pulido.

Knock: Never raced at Will Rogers Downs. 0-for-3 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #7, #9 · B #1, #3, #8 · C #4, #5, #6

Angles: #6 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 81)

R6 WRD · Trial

3:05 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 9 runners3:05 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 9 runners

Upcoming $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Leaf on the WindM. Delgado · H. RamirezDelgado · RamirezB87 84 72▲+65-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +6 · career best87 84 72B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 87 84 72

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 13-for-90 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Hernesto Ramirez 32% career 2-for-43 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Electrifying 2-1, R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R7: Penelope Cruisin 15-1, R8: A Painted Fling 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Coronado Bay Nh 20-1, R9: Miss D Meanor 3-1

Class relief: $15,000 claiming last time, stakes nongraded today. 2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 10.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 55 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 15k n2l	2nd/10 -1L	87	15-1	b L	Step slow;gaining
9/21	WRD	1.36364f D	Clm 15k n2l	3rd/10	84	4.7-1	b L	Dug in;outfinished
7/3	FMT	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	4th/7 -2½L	72	7.0-1	b L	Broke in;no late kick

2Matilda 4B. Candanosa · S. MendozaCandanosa · MendozaA90 84 81▲▲+124-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best90 84 81A3
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 90 84 81
Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R4: Sherrys Relentless 20-1, R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R7: Browneyegal 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R7: Browneyegal 2-1, R8: Js Ivory 15-1 +1 more
Has moved up each time out, 81 to 84 to 90. Has won 2 of 4 going today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stumbld st; btwn), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 89d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 LS 1.13636f D Alw nc 3rd/10 -1L 90 9.0-1 b Stumbld st;btwn
8/15 GIL 1.59091f D FutTrl9000 Won/8 84 3.4-1 b Good run held on
4/16 RP 1½f D MSW Won/10 81 2.6-1 b Fired first stride

3Cyber SunshineJ. Torres · S. Charette-HillTorres · Charette-HillB81 84 73▲▲+8↕15-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +881 84 73 ↕B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–84 · Last 3 figs 81 84 73

Jockey Jorge Torres 32% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Stacy Charette-Hill 30% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Mary Janes Train 15-1, R4: Embrace The Rock 4-1 · Trainer R4: Embrace The Rock 4-1, R9: Jess Danica 6-1

Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper. Finished 5th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at WRD, beaten 5 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 84d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1.36364f D	MSW	5th/10 -5L	81	8.3-1	b L	Step slow;late bid
9/12	PRM	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/9 -1L	84	4.2-1	b LB	Second best
7/5	PRM	1½f D	MSW	6th/9 -1½L	73	12-1	b LB	Drft out;bmp with foe

4Hott PerfectionLSJ. Pulido · J. VanePulido · VaneC80 54 79▲▲+14@trip 8015-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best80 54 79@trip 80CLS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 54 79

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 14-for-41 on dirt this meet (34%), #1 of 36 · Trainer Jed H Vane 34% career ★ 12-for-28 on dirt this meet (43%), #2 of 46 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R4: Hott Take 8-1, R8: Suite Talker 8-1, R10: Secret Pursuit 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R4: Hott Take 8-1, R7: Bp History Maker 4-1, R8: Suite Talker 8-1 +2 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Changes barns, from Kash Reed to Jed H Vane. A big drop, stakes to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.5F on Jul 22; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	6th/10 -2¾L	80	12-1	b L	Late surge
6/28	POD	1.59091f D	FutTrl1500	5th/6 -¾L	54	0.9-1	b LB	Drifted out
4/10	RP	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/9 by hd	79	1.3-1	b L	Long duel;outnodded

5Sheza Candy WagonJ. Brooks · J. JoinerBrooks · JoinerC75 82 85▼▼-920-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -975 82 85C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Last 3 figs 75 82 85

Jockey J D Brooks 26% career 0-for-28 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Prince Dynasty 6-1, R10: Jessys Dynasty 6-1 · Trainer R1: Electrifying 2-1, R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R8: A Painted Fling 2-1, R9: Wr Hott Train 20-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Figures have slipped: 85, 82, 75 over its last three. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1.1F on Mar 7; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/15	WRD	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	8th/9 -4¾L	75	4.1-1	b L	Off slow;no threat
7/5	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/7 by nk	82	0.7-1	b	Brk in;dueled;bested
5/31	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/9 by nk	85	6.2-1	b	Drifted early;good try

6Apollitical Strike▼F. Ramirez Jr. · J. OlmsteadRamirez Jr. · OlmsteadC70 81 72▼▼-10@trip 7215-1Fair 30-13%▼▼ Big drop -1070 81 72@trip 72C▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 81)

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 72 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 81 72

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (70 vs 81)

Jockey Francisco Raul Jr Ramirez 33% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R11: Suzes Relentless 15-1 · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

Last out was 6th, 1¾ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at WRD. Winless in 6 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 29d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1.59091f D	sMdSpWt	6th/8 -1¾L	70	3.6-1	b L	Broke in;chase;no kick
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 -1¼L	81	62-1	b L	Drifted in late
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	7th/9 -3L	72	38-1	b L	Lugged in

7Jessa Southern GirlA. Alvidrez · J. OlmsteadAlvidrez · OlmsteadA92 88 95►≡8-5Fair 1-150%► Steady92 88 95 ≡A1

Card model 50% · Fair odds 1-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 87–95 · Last 3 figs 92 88 95

Jockey Armando Alvidrez 28% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R10: Im A Boujee Chick 2-1 · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

WON LAST

Owns the highest recent figure here at 95. Winner of a 10-horse race at PRM last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 236d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	PRM	1.59091f D	ValJunFuG3 G3	Won/10	92	1.4-1	b LB	Sharp; clear
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	Won/8	88	0.1-1	b LB	Much the best
8/15	PRM	1.59091f D	PrmJuvChal56k	Won/8	95	2.0-1	b LB	Kicked clear

8Tossin Back TimeC. Smith · S. ValdiviaSmith · ValdiviaB84 67 79▲▲+1320-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best84 67 79B
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Last 3 figs 84 67 79
Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 9-for-94 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Samuel E Valdivia 29% career 12-for-63 on dirt this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Arock 5-1, R2: Sweet Lorali 2-1, R4: Graceious 15-1, R8: Remember Thiz Kiss 4-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Remember Thiz Kiss 4-1
LASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK
Samuel E Valdivia takes over the training from Delbert McDowell. A 57-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP 1f in :12.00 on May 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/6 SRR 1½f D MSW 3rd/8 -2L 84 7.1-1 b Game effort
8/20 SRR 1.13636f D MSW 7th/9 -1½L 67 7.4-1 b Crowded st;no menace
8/5 IND 1.59091f D MSW 2nd/10 by nk 79 3.8-1 b Broke out; gaining

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	SRR	1½f D	MSW	3rd/8 -2L	84	7.1-1	b	Game effort
8/20	SRR	1.13636f D	MSW	7th/9 -1½L	67	7.4-1	b	Crowded st;no menace
8/5	IND	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/10 by nk	79	3.8-1	b	Broke out; gaining

9Youve Got the LookF. Calderon · T. CrawfordCalderon · CrawfordA89 79 87▲▲+10@trip 793-1Fair 7-113%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best89 79 87@trip 79A2

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 79 87

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #2 of 36 · Trainer Tyler Cole Crawford 28% career 0-for-28 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Bp Southern Money 6-1, R5: Kisses N Candy 20-1, R7: Bp History Maker 4-1, R9: My Flying Eagle 10-1

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

New trainer: Clinton T Crawford had it last time, Tyler Cole Crawford now. Winner of a 9-horse stakes race at ALB last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	Won/9	89	3.9-1	b L	Ridden hard;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	2nd/9	79	25-1	b L	Vied throughout; game
5/23	ALB	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	4th/8 -1¾L	87	39-1	b L	Mid pack; no rally

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

9 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

3:05 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#7 · 50%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Jessa Southern Girl (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 92 · 88 · 95. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #9 Youve Got The Look at 3-1. Use #2 Matilda 4 in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 JESSA SOUTHERN GIRL (8-5) — our number agrees.
#7 JESSA SOUTHERN GIRL — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 35.2%, they've got 30.0%.
#9 YOUVE GOT THE LOOK — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 19.5%).
#2 MATILDA 4 — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.2% to their 15.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#7 JESSA SOUTHERN GIRL — we make it 35.2%, the morning line works out to 30.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Leaf On The Wind, #2 Matilda 4, #3 Cyber Sunshine.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Leaf On The Wind2Matilda 43Cyber Sunshine4Hott Perfection5Sheza Candy Wagon6Apollitical Strike7Jessa Southern Girl8Tossin Back Time9Youve Got The Look

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Jessa Southern Girl

Leaf On The Wind

Matilda 4

Cyber Sunshine

Hott Perfection

Sheza Candy Wagon

Apollitical Strike

Tossin Back Time

Youve Got The Look

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Bet types

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