Pick sheet

Race 21:25 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Sweet Lorali, is 34% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 Sweet Lorali ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +6 ↕ Up and down 65–92

Jockey C. Smith · Trainer S. Capps · KEE 2: 1-0-0 · Dist 5: 1-1-0 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	sMystrFuRG2 G2	8th/10 -1½L	88	12-1	b L	In tight start;no kick
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	Won/8 by ½	92	12-1	b L	Chased;strong late bid
6/27	FMT	1½f D	MSW	2nd/10	88	7.2-1	b L	Stumbled;clear;nailed

Case: Last out 8th/10 -1½L in the sMystrFuRG2-G2 at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 88-92-88. 1-for-5 at the distance. 1-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. S. Capps / C. Smith.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f).

Contender #3 Cartier ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +9 ↕ Up and down 74–94

Jockey R. Garcia · Trainer J. Olmstead · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 7: 1-1-2 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 74 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	4th/10 -1¼L	94	1.5-1	b L	Crowded st;gaining
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	4th/9 -3L	88	13-1	b L	Improved position;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/8 -2L	74	2.7-1	b L	Broke out; brushed

Case: Last out 4th/10 -1¼L in the Alw20560n2l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 94-88-74. Best at today's distance 74. 1-for-7 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Olmstead / R. Garcia.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #1 Bp Southern Money ML 6-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +26 · career best Last out 3rd in the MdSpWt at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 87-45-76. 0-for-3 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. K. Reed / F. Calderon. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). 0-for-3 at the distance.

Jockey F. Calderon · Trainer K. Reed · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 3: 0-0-2 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/8 -½L	87	4.6-1	b L	Stp slw;bid;missed 2nd
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	9th/9 -6¼L	45	12-1	b LB	Stumbled start
3/29	RP	1½f D	MSW	3rd/9 -½L	76	3.3-1	b L	All out; lost duel

★ Distance horse: #6 First Scout (15-1) has the best figure in the field at 1.81818f dirt: 75 from 2 tries, record at the distance 4: 0-0-0. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #5 · B #2, #4, #8 · C #6, #7

R2 WRD · Trial

1:25 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 8 runners1:25 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #6 First Scout (15-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 75 from 2 tries. Not in our top three.

1Bp Southern MoneyF. Calderon · K. ReedCalderon · ReedA87 45 76▲▲+266-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +26 · career best87 45 76A3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +26 · career best · Last 3 figs 87 45 76

Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #2 of 36 · Trainer Kash Reed 31% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Kisses N Candy 20-1, R6: Youve Got The Look 3-1, R7: Bp History Maker 4-1, R9: My Flying Eagle 10-1 · Trainer R10: Secret Pursuit 8-1

Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded. Last out was 3rd, ½ length behind the winner, in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 72d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/8 -½L	87	4.6-1	b L	Stp slw;bid;missed 2nd
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	9th/9 -6¼L	45	12-1	b LB	Stumbled start
3/29	RP	1½f D	MSW	3rd/9 -½L	76	3.3-1	b L	All out; lost duel

2Wise LadyR. Olmstead · J. OlmsteadOlmstead · OlmsteadB75 78 69►≡5-1Fair 8-111%► Steady75 78 69 ≡B

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–78 · Last 3 figs 75 78 69

Jockey Ryder Olmstead 14% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R4: Daylynn 10-1, R7: Miss Southern Perry 20-1, R8: Lacylyn 10-1, R9: Divinitty 4-1 · Trainer this race: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1, R4: Daylynn 10-1 +14 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

A big drop, $20,000 claiming to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why. 3rd last time, 2½ lengths back, in a field of 8.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP Bumped between start last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 15d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	PRM	1.13636f D	Clm 20k n2l	3rd/8 -2½L	75	8.6-1	b LB	Bumped between start
8/20	CBY	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/9	78	3.6-1	b	Vied; edged ahead
7/26	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	6th/8 -3L	69	56-1	b LB	Chased; weakened

3CartierR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA94 88 74▲▲+9↕@trip 743-1Fair 7-223%▲▲ Big jump +994 88 74 ↕@trip 74A2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 74–94 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 88 74

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 9-for-57 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Miss American 2-1, R4: Flying Fire 2-1, R5: Ask Her To Fly 8-5, R7: Red Sticky Candy 6-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: Wise Lady 5-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1, R4: Daylynn 10-1 +14 more

Tops the field on speed figures, a 96 against 92 for the next best. Has moved up each time out, 74 to 88 to 94.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 29d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	4th/10 -1¼L	94	1.5-1	b L	Crowded st;gaining
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	4th/9 -3L	88	13-1	b L	Improved position;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/8 -2L	74	2.7-1	b L	Broke out; brushed

4Dynastys PrincessE. Escobedo · M. JungersEscobedo · JungersB75 79 71▲+512-1Fair 30-13%▲ Up +575 79 71B

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 75 79 71

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 8-for-61 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career 2-for-4 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Sp Sinful Saint 7-2, R5: Paulinas Knockout 12-1, R7: Dulce Creek Senator 3-1, R8: Miss Dashin Hocks 7-2 +1 more · Trainer R5: Paulinas Knockout 12-1

Winless in 5 starts at this distance. Off 49 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 143d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	8th/9 -4¾L	75	16-1	b L	Off slow;one paced
8/20	RET	1.59091f D	MSW	4th/10 -1L	79	38-1	b L	Gaining late
7/17	RET	1.13636f D	MSW	6th/8 -1½L	71	23-1	b L	No menace

5Sweet LoraliC. Smith · S. CappsSmith · CappsA88 92 88▲+6↕2-1Fair 2-134%▲ Up +688 92 88 ↕A1

Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–92 · Last 3 figs 88 92 88

Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 9-for-94 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Stacey Capps 28% career 8-for-46 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Arock 5-1, R4: Graceious 15-1, R6: Tossin Back Time 20-1, R8: Remember Thiz Kiss 4-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Arock 5-1, R5: Southard Kisses 15-1, R10: Relentless Ruth 3-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Jockey switch: Eugenio Alberto Navarrete last out, Cody Rodger Smith today. Runs for $5,000 today after a $75,000 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.40 on Aug 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	sMystrFuRG2 G2	8th/10 -1½L	88	12-1	b L	In tight start;no kick
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	Won/8 by ½	92	12-1	b L	Chased;strong late bid
6/27	FMT	1½f D	MSW	2nd/10	88	7.2-1	b L	Stumbled;clear;nailed

6First Scout★A. Rivera · J. StinebaughRivera · StinebaughC70 82 75▼▼-9@trip 7515-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -970 82 75@trip 75C★ Best at the trip 75

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 82 75

★ Best at the trip 75

Jockey Ali Rivera 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer John A Stinebaugh 36% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R5: Singles Famous Eagle 20-1, R10: A Political Assassin 15-1, R11: Aj Hard Player 4-1 · Trainer R5: Singles Famous Eagle 20-1, R10: A Political Assassin 15-1, R11: Aj Hard Player 4-1

★ FASTEST WORK

The Oct 20 work, 1F in :11.40, was the best time at that distance that morning. Worked 1.5F in :17.60 on Apr 4, 3rd of 8 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Oct 20; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	8th/9 -6½L	70	30-1	b L	Brshd;no factor
8/7	ALB	2f D	Trial	7th/10 -3¼L	82	58-1	b L	Outrun;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	4th/10 -1¼L	75	34-1	b L	Hopped start; bumped

7La PacionistaC. Cardenas · J. GonzalesCardenas · GonzalesC8315-1Fair 20-14%—83C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 83
Jockey Christian Cardenas 32% career · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career
Also today · Jockey R5: Dansing Queeen 3-1, R11: Bett The Limit 6-1 · Trainer R5: Dansing Queeen 3-1, R11: Bett The Limit 6-1
60D LAYOFF
James Julian Ii Gonzales takes over the training from James J Iii Gonzales. 178 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 19d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/8 RP 1.59091f D FutTrl15000 4th/8 -1¼L 83 4.2-1 b L In early mix;wknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/8	RP	1.59091f D	FutTrl15000	4th/8 -1¼L	83	4.2-1	b L	In early mix;wknd

8Fdd BajaG. Linares · O. NunezLinares · NunezB73 85 75►↕@trip 7310-1Fair 15-16%► Steady73 85 75 ↕@trip 73B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–85 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 85 75

Jockey Gilberto Linares 33% career 2-for-16 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Oscar Nunez 27% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R10: Kiss My Baja 20-1 · Trainer R10: Kiss My Baja 20-1

LASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK

New trainer: Lira Jesus Huitron had it last time, Oscar Nunez now. Beaten 3¼ lengths for 8th in a 10-horse stakes race at LS.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 160 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	8th/10 -3¼L	73	65-1	b	Bmp st;weakened
7/23	RET	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/8 by hd	85	3.0-1	b	Dueled; driving finish
6/26	RET	1.13636f D	MSW	3rd/10	75	7.3-1	b	Led; hung late

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

8 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

1:25 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#5 · 34%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Sweet Lorali (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 88 · 92 · 88. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #3 Cartier at 3-1. Use #1 Bp Southern Money in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 SWEET LORALI (2-1) — our number agrees.
#5 SWEET LORALI — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.9% to their 28.1%).
#3 CARTIER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 21.1%).
#1 BP SOUTHERN MONEY — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 14.5%, they've got 12.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#1 BP SOUTHERN MONEY — we make it 14.5%, the morning line works out to 12.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Bp Southern Money, #2 Wise Lady, #3 Cartier.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Bp Southern Money2Wise Lady3Cartier4Dynastys Princess5Sweet Lorali6First Scout7La Pacionista8Fdd Baja

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Wise Lady

Bp Southern Money

Cartier

Dynastys Princess

Sweet Lorali

First Scout

La Pacionista

Fdd Baja

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