Pick sheet

Race 73:30 PM Trial

1.8F · Dirt · 8 entered. Our model's top pick, Browneyegal, is 33% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #2 Browneyegal ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +7 ↕ Up and down 78–106

Jockey B. Candanosa · Trainer S. Mendoza · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 4: 3-0-0 · 20 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/13	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	Won/9	99	2.8-1	b	Took command;held well
9/6	SRR	1.59091f D	Alw nc	Won/9	93	1.4-1	b	Gate to wire
8/27	SRR	1f D	MSW	Won/7	106	1.7-1	b	Much the best

Case: Last out won in the Alw21160n3l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 99-93-106. 3-for-4 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Will Rogers Downs. S. Mendoza / B. Candanosa.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f).

Contender #8 Dulce Creek Senator ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▲▲ Big jump +9 ↕ Up and down 75–102

Jockey E. Escobedo · Trainer J. Davis · Dist 6: 2-1-1 · 37 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SWF	1.59091f D	SWF Fut300k	3rd/8 -1½L	97	8.9-1	b LB	Game effort
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/7	102	2.6-1	b LB	Much the best
7/24	WYO	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	2nd/9 by nk	87	3.8-1	b LB	Bobbled start; chased

Case: Last out 3rd in the SWF Fut300k at SWF. Last Brisnet figures 97-102-87. 2-for-6 at the distance. J. Davis / E. Escobedo.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f). Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Use #5 Bp History Maker ML 4-1 Fair 9-2 Model #3 Last out 3rd in the FutTrl10000 at LS. Last Brisnet figures 83-79. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-2 at the distance. J. Vane / F. Calderon. Knock: Never raced at Will Rogers Downs.

Jockey F. Calderon · Trainer J. Vane · Dist 2: 1-0-1 · best fig at 1.81818f dirt 83 · 44 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LS	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 -1L	83	4.3-1	b L	Evened out
3/29	RP	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/10 by hd	79	1.6-1	b L	Dug in to win duel

Longshot #1 Shez Sin Tacha ML 15-1 Fair 15-1 Model #5 ▲ Up +7 · career best

Jockey R. Cruz · Trainer J. Ruiz · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · Dist 5: 2-2-0 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	5th/10 -3½L	87	4.5-1	b L	Crowded st;mild rally
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	2nd/8 -1L	85	4.3-1	b L	Chased;up for 2nd
7/3	FMT	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	2nd/7 -½L	81	2.0-1	b L	Turned away;2nd best

Case: Last out 5th/10 -3½L in the Alw21160n3l at WRD. Last Brisnet figures 87-85-81. 2-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Will Rogers Downs. J. Ruiz / R. Cruz.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1.59091f).

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #8 · B #5, #6, #7 · C #1, #3

R7 WRD · Trial

3:30 PM ET · 400 Yards Dirt · $5,000 · 8 runners3:30 PM · 1.8f Dirt · 8 runners

Upcoming $5,000 · Trial

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Shez Sin TachaLSR. Cruz · J. RuizCruz · RuizC87 85 81▲+715-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +7 · career best87 85 81CLS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 87 85 81

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Roman Cruz 33% career ★ 26-for-116 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 36 · Trainer Jesus Ruben Ruiz 30% career 7-for-85 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R3: Chin Up Buttercup 9-2, R8: Gold Prize Honey 12-1 · Trainer R3: Skyline Mistress 15-1, R8: Gold Prize Honey 12-1

Class relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today. Has moved up each time out, 81 to 85 to 87.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 70d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WRD	1½f D	Alw n3l	5th/10 -3½L	87	4.5-1	b L	Crowded st;mild rally
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	2nd/8 -1L	85	4.3-1	b L	Chased;up for 2nd
7/3	FMT	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	2nd/7 -½L	81	2.0-1	b L	Turned away;2nd best

2BrowneyegalB. Candanosa · S. MendozaCandanosa · MendozaA99 93 106▲+7↕2-1Fair 2-133%▲ Up +799 93 106 ↕A1
Card model 33% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 78–106 · Last 3 figs 99 93 106
Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Samuel Mendoza 32% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R4: Sherrys Relentless 20-1, R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1, R8: Js Ivory 15-1 +1 more
WON LAST
Won last out in a 9-horse allowance race at WRD. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 106, with 102 next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 77 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/13 WRD 1½f D Alw n3l Won/9 99 2.8-1 b Took command;held well
9/6 SRR 1.59091f D Alw nc Won/9 93 1.4-1 b Gate to wire
8/27 SRR 1f D MSW Won/7 106 1.7-1 b Much the best

3Miss Southern PerryR. Olmstead · J. OlmsteadOlmstead · OlmsteadC49 76 63▼▼-22↕20-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -2249 76 63 ↕C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–76 · Last 3 figs 49 76 63

Jockey Ryder Olmstead 14% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R4: Daylynn 10-1, R8: Lacylyn 10-1, R9: Divinitty 4-1 · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

0 for 4 at today's distance. Drops from stakes to stakes nongraded.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 15d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	8th/9 -6L	49	53-1	b LB	Retreated
7/26	PRM	1½f D	MSW	3rd/7 -1½L	76	5.4-1	b LB	Steady bid
6/15	PRM	1.59091f D	FutTrl8000	5th/7 -1¾L	63	1.8-1	b LB	Failed to threaten

4Red Sticky CandyR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA92 94 70▲▲+11↕6-1Fair 10-110%▲▲ Big jump +1192 94 70 ↕A

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 70–94 · Last 3 figs 92 94 70

Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 9-for-57 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss American 2-1, R4: Flying Fire 2-1, R5: Ask Her To Fly 8-5 +3 more · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more

Purse drops from $75,000 to $5,000 against its last start. Last out was 5th, ¾ length behind the winner, in a 10-horse race at WRD.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 99d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/28	WRD	1.59091f D	sMystrFuRG2 G2	5th/10 -¾L	92	22-1	b L	Vied;outfinished
9/14	WRD	1.59091f D	sFutTrl5000	Won/8	94	12-1	b L	Speed;edged away
8/16	PRM	1½f D	MSW	8th/9 -2½L	70	1.5-1	b LB	Slow start

5Bp History MakerF. Calderon · J. VaneCalderon · VaneB83 79@trip 834-1Fair 9-218%—83 79@trip 83B3
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 79
Jockey Francisco Calderon 37% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%), #2 of 36 · Trainer Jed H Vane 34% career ★ 12-for-28 on dirt this meet (43%), #2 of 46 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Bp Southern Money 6-1, R5: Kisses N Candy 20-1, R6: Youve Got The Look 3-1, R9: My Flying Eagle 10-1 · Trainer R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R4: Hott Take 8-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R8: Suite Talker 8-1 +2 more
New trainer: Kash Reed had it last time, Jed H Vane now. Worked 1F in :12.40 on Aug 6, 3rd of 12 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 17d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 LS 1.81818f D FutTrl10000 3rd/10 -1L 83 4.3-1 b L Evened out
3/29 RP 1.36364f D MSW Won/10 by hd 79 1.6-1 b L Dug in to win duel

6Shez a Fabulous GalG. Gutierrez · K. WillisGutierrez · WillisB87 79 77▲+712-1Fair 20-15%▲ Up +7 · career best87 79 77B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 87 79 77

Jockey Gonzalo Gutierrez 32% career 5-for-86 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Kasey Willis 35% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Striking Favorite 10-1, R11: La Siccaria 2-1 · Trainer R3: Striking Favorite 10-1, R11: La Siccaria 2-1

LASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORK

Figures are climbing: 77, 79, 87 over its last three. A 57-day gap since its last race.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 18 (1F in :11.20), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	SRR	1.59091f D	Alw nc	2nd/10 -1L	87	4.2-1	b	Game 2nd
8/19	SRR	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	3rd/10 -½L	79	5.5-1	b	Vied;just missed
5/24	RP	1½f D	Alw n2l	7th/9 -½L	77	4.0-1	b L	Lacked needed rally

7Penelope CruisinM. Delgado · D. KeenerDelgado · KeenerB68 80 90▼▼-10↕15-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1068 80 90 ↕B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–90 · Last 3 figs 68 80 90

Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 13-for-90 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Dee Keener 35% career 7-for-37 on dirt this meet (19%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Electrifying 2-1, R4: Whoopsy 20-1, R6: Leaf On The Wind 5-1, R8: A Painted Fling 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Chin Up Buttercup 9-2

Changes barns, from Michael Moss to Dee Keener. Trending the wrong way on speed, 90 to 80 to 68.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: In tight st; lugged out. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 80d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	WRD	1½f D	Alw n2l	8th/9 -3¾L	68	28-1	b L	In tight st;lugged out
9/15	WRD	1.59091f D	FutTrl5000	6th/9 -2L	80	6.9-1	b L	Chased;flattened out
7/16	FMT	1½f D	MSW	Won/10 by hd	90	9.7-1	b L	Dueled;determined win

8Dulce Creek SenatorE. Escobedo · J. DavisEscobedo · DavisA97 102 87▲▲+9↕3-1Fair 7-223%▲▲ Big jump +997 102 87 ↕A2

Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 75–102 · Last 3 figs 97 102 87

Jockey Edwin G Escobedo 36% career 8-for-61 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Joe M Davis 33% career 6-for-36 on dirt this meet (17%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Dynastys Princess 12-1, R3: Sp Sinful Saint 7-2, R5: Paulinas Knockout 12-1, R8: Miss Dashin Hocks 7-2 +1 more · Trainer R3: Sp Sinful Saint 7-2, R8: Miss Dashin Hocks 7-2

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 1F work of its morning on Jun 24 (:11.60), a sign it is training forwardly. Beaten 1½ lengths for 3rd in an 8-horse race at SWF.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 24 (1F in :11.60), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	SWF	1.59091f D	SWF Fut300k	3rd/8 -1½L	97	8.9-1	b LB	Game effort
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	Won/7	102	2.6-1	b LB	Much the best
7/24	WYO	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	2nd/9 by nk	87	3.8-1	b LB	Bobbled start; chased

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

WRD · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Trial

Field

8 runners

Purse

$5,000

Post

3:30 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#2 · 33%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Browneyegal (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 99 · 93 · 106. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #8 Dulce Creek Senator at 3-1. Use #5 Bp History Maker in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 BROWNEYEGAL (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 BROWNEYEGAL — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.8% to their 28.4%).
#8 DULCE CREEK SENATOR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.9% to their 21.3%).
#5 BP HISTORY MAKER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 17.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Shez Sin Tacha, #2 Browneyegal, #3 Miss Southern Perry.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Shez Sin Tacha2Browneyegal3Miss Southern Perry4Red Sticky Candy5Bp History Maker6Shez A Fabulous Gal7Penelope Cruisin8Dulce Creek Senator

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Dulce Creek Senator

Miss Southern Perry

Shez Sin Tacha

Browneyegal

Red Sticky Candy

Bp History Maker

Shez A Fabulous Gal

Penelope Cruisin

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Bet types

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