| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25 | PRM | 1.59091f D | ValyJunJuv30k | Won/10 by nk | 86 | 4.1-1 | b LB | Surged late |
| 9/6 | PRM | 1.59091f D | FutTrl8000 | 2nd/8 -½L | 79 | 2.3-1 | b LB | Cleared second best |
| 7/4 | PRM | 1.59091f D | PRMGoldFut264k | 10th/10 -3L | 76 | 15-1 | b LB | Failed to menace |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/7 | ALB | 2f D | FutTrl10000 | 4th/10 -1½L | 85 | 3.6-1 | b L | Even effort; |
| 3/21 | RP | 1.36364f D | OK Juv S50k | Won/8 | 87 | 2.1-1 | b | Bumps after brk; best |
| 3/6 | RP | 1.36364f D | FutTrl10000 | 2nd/8 -½L | 77 | 1.3-1 | b | Hard fought loss |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22 | WRD | 1.59091f D | Alw n2l | 8th/10 -4¼L | 73 | 3.6-1 | b L | Off bit slow;moved up |
| 4/2 | RP | 1½f D | sFutTrl15000 | Won/9 | 69 | 1.6-1 | b L | Strong kick;held |
| 3/19 | RP | 1.36364f D | MSW | 2nd/8 by hd | 75 | 8.0-1 | L | Shiftd in st;drftd out |
1Coronado Bay NhJ. Mata · H. RamirezMata · RamirezC6720-1Fair 50-12%
—67CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 67
Jockey Jaime Mata 26% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Hernesto Ramirez 32% career 2-for-43 on dirt this meet (5%)Drops from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 31d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/13 WRD 1.59091f D MSW 8th/8 -5L 67 51-1 b L Slow into stride 2Vaquerita 4N. Duran · M. Chavez-GutierrezDuran · Chavez-GutierrezA85 87 77▲+33-1Fair 5-117%
▲ Up +385 87 77A2Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 85 87 77
Jockey Nestor Duran 40% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Marco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez 14% career60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKMarco Adair Chavez-Gutierrez takes over the training from Emilio Jr Cadena. Was running in stakes; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 23 (1.5F in :16.40), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/7 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 4th/10 -1½L 85 3.6-1 b L Even effort; 3/21 RP 1.36364f D OK Juv S50k Won/8 87 2.1-1 b Bumps after brk; best 3/6 RP 1.36364f D FutTrl10000 2nd/8 -½L 77 1.3-1 b Hard fought loss 3WhoopsyM. Delgado · J. JoinerDelgado · JoinerC66 7920-1Fair 50-12%
—66 79CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 66 79
Jockey Mario Delgado 32% career 13-for-90 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Justin W Joiner 32% career ★ 5-for-25 on dirt this meet (20%)Also today · Jockey R1: Electrifying 2-1, R6: Leaf On The Wind 5-1, R7: Penelope Cruisin 15-1, R8: A Painted Fling 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Electrifying 2-1, R6: Sheza Candy Wagon 20-1, R8: A Painted Fling 2-1, R9: Wr Hott Train 20-1 +1 moreFinished 10th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at WRD, beaten 6¼ lengths. A big drop, maiden special weight to stakes nongraded, and worth asking why.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 69 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 WRD 1.36364f D MSW 10th/10 -6¼L 66 8.1-1 b L Broke in air;trailed 9/15 WRD 1.59091f D FutTrl5000 6th/9 -2L 79 11-1 b L Chased;faded late 4Hott TakeJ. Pulido · J. VanePulido · VaneB73 69 75►8-1Fair 6-114%
► Steady73 69 75B3Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 73 69 75
Jockey Juan Pulido 44% career ★ 14-for-41 on dirt this meet (34%), #1 of 36 · Trainer Jed H Vane 34% career ★ 12-for-28 on dirt this meet (43%), #2 of 46 ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R8: Suite Talker 8-1, R10: Secret Pursuit 8-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Relentless Chic 20-1, R6: Hott Perfection 15-1, R7: Bp History Maker 4-1, R8: Suite Talker 8-1 +2 moreClass relief: allowance last time, stakes nongraded today. Last out was 8th, 4¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at WRD.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 47d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/22 WRD 1.59091f D Alw n2l 8th/10 -4¼L 73 3.6-1 b L Off bit slow;moved up 4/2 RP 1½f D sFutTrl15000 Won/9 69 1.6-1 b L Strong kick;held 3/19 RP 1.36364f D MSW 2nd/8 by hd 75 8.0-1 L Shiftd in st;drftd out 5GraceiousC. Smith · M. WhitekillerSmith · WhitekillerB83 62 70▲▲+1315-1Fair 30-14%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best83 62 70BCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Last 3 figs 83 62 70
Jockey Cody Rodger Smith 31% career 9-for-94 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Matt E Whitekiller 34% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%)Also today · Jockey R1: Arock 5-1, R2: Sweet Lorali 2-1, R6: Tossin Back Time 20-1, R8: Remember Thiz Kiss 4-1 +1 more0 for 4 at today's distance. The Mar 31 work, 1F in :12.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Mar 31; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 WRD 1.36364f D MSW 3rd/10 -½L 83 23-1 b L Close up;no final kick 7/10 RET 1.59091f D MSW 5th/10 -2¼L 62 11-1 b L Bumped; no menace 6/11 HOU 1.13636f D MSW 7th/10 -3L 70 7.1-1 b L No threat 6Embrace the RockJ. Torres · S. Charette-HillTorres · Charette-HillA95 82 93▲▲+114-1Fair 8-110%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best95 82 93ACard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 95 82 93
Jockey Jorge Torres 32% career 2-for-20 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Stacy Charette-Hill 30% career 2-for-17 on dirt this meet (12%)Also today · Jockey R1: Mary Janes Train 15-1, R6: Cyber Sunshine 15-1 · Trainer R6: Cyber Sunshine 15-1, R9: Jess Danica 6-1Owns the highest recent figure here at 95. Beaten 1 length for 4th in a 9-horse allowance race at WRD.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 50d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/13 WRD 1½f D Alw n3l 4th/9 -1L 95 7.9-1 b L Chase;bid;outkicked 7/17 PRM 1½f D Alw n2l Won/7 by 2 82 1.6-1 b LB Gamely; up late 6/19 PRM 1½f D MSW Won/7 93 5.9-1 b LB Speed; held well 7Sherrys RelentlessB. Candanosa · G. ValdiviaCandanosa · ValdiviaC78 81 79►≡20-1Fair 50-12%
► Steady78 81 79 ≡CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 78–81 · Last 3 figs 78 81 79
Jockey Bryan Candanosa 36% career 4-for-25 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Guillermo Valdivia 29% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%)Also today · Jockey R3: Heritage Of Power 4-1, R5: Kiss You Not 10-1, R6: Matilda 4 4-1, R7: Browneyegal 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R9: My Flying Eagle 10-1Winless in 6 starts at this distance. Was running in maiden special weight; today's stakes nongraded is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Hopped st; no threat), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 29d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 WRD 1.36364f D MSW 8th/10 -6L 78 15-1 b L Hopped st;no threat 8/8 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 8th/9 -3¾L 81 85-1 b L No threat; 7/8 FMT 1.36364f D MSW 3rd/9 -½L 79 17-1 b L Outkicked;good try 8DaylynnR. Olmstead · J. OlmsteadOlmstead · OlmsteadB83 94 88▼-510-1Fair 12-17%
▼ Down -583 94 88BCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 83 94 88
Jockey Ryder Olmstead 14% career 0-for-19 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%)Also today · Jockey R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R7: Miss Southern Perry 20-1, R8: Lacylyn 10-1, R9: Divinitty 4-1 · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 more10th last time, 4 lengths back, in a field of 10. Runs for $5,000 today after a $75,000 race last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 120d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/28 WRD 1.59091f D sMystrFuRG2 G2 10th/10 -4L 83 29-1 b L Veered in at start 9/14 WRD 1.59091f D sFutTrl5000 2nd/9 -¾L 94 3.6-1 b L Outkicked;good try 8/20 CBY 1.59091f D NorthlnFut59k 5th/9 -2¾L 88 8.9-1 b Head turn start; rally 9Flying FireR. Garcia · J. OlmsteadGarcia · OlmsteadA86 79 76▲+72-1Fair 7-542%
▲ Up +7 · career best86 79 76A1Card model 42% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 86 79 76
Jockey Ramiro Haro Garcia 33% career 9-for-57 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Jason L Olmstead 35% career 8-for-88 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss American 2-1, R5: Ask Her To Fly 8-5, R7: Red Sticky Candy 6-1 +3 more · Trainer R2: Wise Lady 5-1, R2: Cartier 3-1, R3: Miss Cyberlizeur 8-1, R3: Miss American 2-1 +14 moreWON LASTHas moved up each time out, 76 to 79 to 86. Worked 1.1F in :13.60 on Mar 11, 2nd of 64 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 77d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 PRM 1.59091f D ValyJunJuv30k Won/10 by nk 86 4.1-1 b LB Surged late 9/6 PRM 1.59091f D FutTrl8000 2nd/8 -½L 79 2.3-1 b LB Cleared second best 7/4 PRM 1.59091f D PRMGoldFut264k 10th/10 -3L 76 15-1 b LB Failed to menace
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
WRD · RACE 4
UPCOMINGTrial
Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Breed: Quarter Horse
● Track record at 400 Yards: 19.42
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #9 Flying Fire (a tactical type, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 86 · 79 · 76. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 Vaquerita 4 at 3-1. Use #4 Hott Take in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 FLYING FIRE (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #9 FLYING FIRE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.0% to their 28.0%).
- #2 VAQUERITA 4 — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.8% to their 21.0%).
- #6 EMBRACE THE ROCK — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.5% to their 16.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 HOTT TAKE (8-1) — our fair 10.8% is above the morning line's 9.3%; supported by: top barn (34%) + jockey (44%) at 8-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Coronado Bay Nh, #2 Vaquerita 4, #3 Whoopsy.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$2 EXACTA / (.50) TRIFECTA / (.10) SUPERFECTA / $2 DAILY DOUBLE
(.50) PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6)
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