1What's Up BroRan 2ndP. Pena · W. PottsPena · PottsB74 69 87▲+5↕@trip 856-1Fair 10-18%
▲ Up +574 69 87 ↕@trip 85BCard model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–87 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 69 87
Jockey Pedro Pena 25% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Wayne Potts 30% career 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)Also today · Jockey R3: Mermaid Magic 15-1, R4: Miami Style 20-1, R6: Unspoken 12-1, R8: Schlomo 20-1 +1 more◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLECLASS DROPWayne Potts takes over the training from Norman Follett. 4 wins from 9 starts at this distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)TROUBLED TRIP Bumped st; tired last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 36 days agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 BEL 6f D sOC45000n2xc 6th/8 -2½L 74 23-1 b L Bumped st; tired 9/4 SAR 5½f T OC 80k n2x 10th/10 -4¾L 69 42-1 b L Bmp st;2p;ins1/4;faded 8/7 SAR 6f D sOC45000n2x 2nd/6 -½L 87 24-1 b L Drift out str; ran on 2Master FreudJ. Lezcano · A. ArriagaLezcano · ArriagaC77 66 75►@trip 8115-12%
► Steady77 66 75@trip 81CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 66 75
Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 9-for-63 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Antonio Arriaga 23% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R1: Mr Webster 6-1, R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R3: Army Gal 4-1, R4: Boomington 7-2 +6 moreLast race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 55d agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 BEL 6f T OC 45k 9th/11 -4L 77 13-1 L Chased 2p; no kick 9/18 BEL 6½f D Alw s 12th/12 -9¼L 66 24-1 b L 3-4p trn;6p1/4;mvd out 7/26 SAR 7f D Alw s 9th/10 -6½L 75 11-1 b L Brushed st; tired 3VekindaRan 3rdE. Zayas · G. WeaverZayas · WeaverA81 92 82▼-6@trip 865-1Fair 7-113%
▼ Down -681 92 82@trip 86A3Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 92 82
Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-42 on dirt this meet (19%), #2 of 21 · Trainer George Weaver 37% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Road To Ravello 8-1, R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R6: Miracle Michael 8-1 +5 more · Trainer R4: Boomington 7-2, R7: Iron Palace 5-2, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1, R10: Extravaganzoo 3-1 +2 more◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE5th last time, 5 lengths back, in a field of 8. Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped st; wknd late), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 9d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 BEL 6f D sOC45000n2x 5th/8 -5L 81 4.4-1 L Bumped st; wknd late 9/6 SAR 6f D sAlw105000n1x Won/8 92 3.7-1 L Out;2p;3p1/4;clr;held 4/25 AQU 6f D sOC80000n1x 2nd/6 -7½L 82 3.6-1 b L 5w upper; mild kick 4OnebigbeautfulbillL. Rivera Jr. · B. CoxRivera Jr. · CoxA80 93 80▼-63-120%
▼ Down -680 93 80ACard model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 80 93 80
Jockey Luis Raul Jr Rivera 34% career 0-for-24 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Bikini Changer 5-1, R3: Collective Bargain 12-1, R6: A Lot Of Gold 15-1, R7: Cuando 10-1 +1 more · Trainer R8: Red State 3-1◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSTops the field on speed figures, a 93 against 92 for the next best. Purse drops from $200,000 to $108,000 against its last start.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Bumped st; 3w both trn last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 8d agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/23 SAR 1⅛m D sAlbanyB200k 5th/7 -8½L 80 3.6-1 Bumped st; 3w both trn 8/9 SAR 7f D sAlw105000n1x Won/7 by 1½ 93 4.2-1 L Ins-2p;chased lane;up 7/5 SAR 6f D sMdSpWt Won/6 by 1½ 80 2.5-1 L Bmp brk;4p trn;drft1/8 5Truman's CommanderA. Fresu · M. CasseFresu · CasseB88 84 85▲▲+810-18%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best88 84 85BCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 88 84 85
Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 6-for-51 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Port In A Storm 5-1, R2: Gold Control 6-1, R3: L'Eclair 9-2, R4: She's Our Tiz 6-1 +4 more60D LAYOFFBack to 6½ furlongs off a a mile race. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP 5-6w upper; ran on last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 15 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/16 SAR 1m T sOC45000n2x 4th/10 -1¼L 88 14-1 L 5-6w upper; ran on 7/4 SAR 5½f T sAlw105000n1x Won/12 by 1½ 84 5.7-1 L 5w upper; edged clear 6/7 SAR 5½f T sAlw105000n1x 4th/11 -3L 85 11-1 L 6w upper; mild kick 6Elysian MeadowsJ. Rodriguez · I. KantarmaciRodriguez · KantarmaciC76 74 78►≡10-15%
► Steady76 74 78 ≡CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 74–80 · Last 3 figs 76 74 78
Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci 28% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%)Also today · Jockey R1: This Time For Sure 8-1, R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R6: God Of Fire 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R8: Toscano 30-1, R8: Schlomo 20-1New trainer: William I Mott had it last time, Ilkay Kantarmaci now. Worked 4F in :47.80 on Sep 14, 3rd of 30 at the distance.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 6d agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/20 BEL 7f D Clm 35k bc 6th/9 -2¾L 76 7.4-1 L Outside;3-2p turn;wknd 8/7 SAR 6f D sOC45000n2x 6th/6 -12L 74 11-1 L 5-6w upper; trailed 7/18 SAR 1m D sOC45000n2x 6th/7 -12L 78 5.7-1 L 3-4p turns;no response 7B Thedonald★V. Cheminaud · P. DeCheminaud · DeB79 80 89▼▼-8@trip 906-112%
▼▼ Big drop -879 80 89@trip 90B★ Best at the trip 90Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 80 89
★ Best at the trip 90Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Paz Horacio De 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)Also today · Jockey R1: Loyal Prince 15-1, R2: Fireinhereyes 4-1, R4: Velocity Girl 20-1, R7: Marchon 12-1 · Trainer R2: Fireinhereyes 4-1, R4: Power Of Women 5-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKTrending the wrong way on speed, 89 to 80 to 79. Last out was 4th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse optional claiming race at SAR.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 18 (4F in :47.00), 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 SAR 6½f D sOC45000n2x 4th/8 -10L 79 2.4-1 b L Off step slw;4-5p;7p 7/10 SAR 6½f D sOC45000n2x 4th/7 -3L 80 0.9-1 b L Chased 3-2w; kept on 6/3 SAR 7f D sMikeLeeB200k 2nd/9 -10L 89 19-1 b Steady st; closed well 8Party in the ArmyRan 1stS. Marin · J. EnglehartMarin · EnglehartA90 87 87▲+3≡@trip 892-1Fair 2-132%
▲ Up +3 · career best90 87 87 ≡@trip 89A1Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 87–90 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 87 87
Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 7-for-54 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Jeremiah C Englehart 34% career 2-for-13 on dirt this meet (15%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Broadcast 7-5, R4: Power Of Women 5-1, R6: Borago 7-2, R7: Lyneham 8-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance. Finished 2nd in an 8-horse optional claiming race at BEL, beaten 1 length.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 8d backRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 BEL 6f D sOC45000n2x 2nd/8 -1L 90 2.1-1 b L Chased 2p; ran on 9/5 SAR 6½f D sOC45000n2x 2nd/8 87 4.0-1 b L Bmp st;3p;drft3/16;led 8/7 SAR 6f D sOC45000n2x 3rd/6 87 1.8-1 b L Dueled 3-2w; kept on
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #8 Party In The Army, won.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BELMONT PARK · RACE 5
OFFICIALOptional Claiming $45,000
Claiming $45,000, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 1/2 Furlongs: 74.4
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #8 Party In The Army (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 90 · 87 · 87. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Onebigbeautfulbill at 3-1. Use #3 Vekinda in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · WON
Top pick Party In The Army won
What worked
- ✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
- ✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
- ✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, —, 3rd
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #8 PARTY IN THE ARMY | 1st |
| #2 | #4 ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL | — |
| #3 | #3 VEKINDA | 3rd |
| #4 | #7 B THEDONALD | — |
| #5 | #1 WHAT'S UP BRO | 2nd |
Actual finish
| 1st | #8 Party in the Army | our #1 |
| 2nd | #1 What`s Up Bro | our #5 |
| 3rd | #3 Vekinda | our #3 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 PARTY IN THE ARMY (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #8 PARTY IN THE ARMY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.2% to their 26.0%).
- #4 ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.7% to their 19.5%).
- #3 VEKINDA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.9% to their 13.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #1 What's Up Bro; pressure from #5 Truman's Commander, #8 Party In The Army; the shape helps #2 Master Freud, #3 Vekinda, #4 Onebigbeautfulbill; and works against #1 What's Up Bro.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 5 & 6; PICK 3 ($1) (5-7)
MANDATORY PAYOUT PICK 5 (.50) (5-9)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta