R10 Belmont Park · Key Cents Stakes

4:38 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $175,000 · 10 runners4:38 PM · 1m Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $175K · Key Cents Stakes

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Saint Dymphna▼J. Rodriguez · A. GreenRodriguez · GreenC67 76 72►↕12-1Fair 20-14%► Steady67 76 72 ↕C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–76 · Last 3 figs 67 76 72

▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: This Time For Sure 8-1, R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R5: Elysian Meadows 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R6: Borago 7-2, R9: West Hollywood 15-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Beaten 10 lengths for 4th in a 7-horse race at SAR.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled st; tired last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	SAR	6f D	fsSeeknAnteB200k	4th/7 -10L	67	19-1	b	Stumbled st; tired
8/9	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	Won/12	76	7.8-1	b	2-4p trn;lead3/16;held
7/23	SAR	5½f T	MSW	5th/10 -5½L	72	28-1	b	Chased 4-3w; weakened

2Belmont Street▲C. Elliott · R. DutrowElliott · DutrowA85 746-1Fair 10-19%—85 74A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 85 74
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84
Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 0-for-35 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Richard E Dutrow 22% career 1-for-21 on turf this meet (5%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Obliterated 10-1, R2: Jadugar 6-1, R3: Next On Stage 6-1, R6: Hyperborean Spirit 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: L'Eclair 9-2
Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and stakes nongraded now. Last out was 4th, 1 length behind the winner, in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago
RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 BEL 1 1/16 T MSW 4th/11 -1L 85 25-1 Tracked ins; kept on
8/21 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 3rd/8 -7½L 74 14-1 Ins1st;2-4p2nd;8p3/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	BEL	1 1/16 T	MSW	4th/11 -1L	85	25-1		Tracked ins; kept on
8/21	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	3rd/8 -7½L	74	14-1		Ins1st;2-4p2nd;8p3/16

3Extravaganzoo▲S. Marin · G. WeaverMarin · WeaverA86 84 90▲▲+14↕3-1Fair 9-536%▲▲ Big jump +1486 84 90 ↕A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 841

Card model 36% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–90 · Last 3 figs 86 84 90

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 84

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-76 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer George Weaver 37% career 6-for-34 on turf this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Broadcast 7-5, R4: Power Of Women 5-1, R5: Party In The Army 2-1, R6: Borago 7-2 +4 more · Trainer R4: Boomington 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1, R7: Iron Palace 5-2, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1 +2 more

WON LAST

Tops the field on speed figures, a 90 against 89 for the next best. Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to a mile.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 4-5w uppr; edged clear. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 11; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/2	BEL	6½f T	fsJoeAGimmaB175k	Won/6 by ½	86	0.5-1	4-5w uppr; edged clear
8/26	SAR	5½f T	BltnLndng Stk	3rd/8 -1½L	84	2.6-1	2-3p turn;5p1/4;chased
7/16	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	Won/10	90	2.3-1	Mvd in;2p turn;lead1/4

4Boomesherang▼LSE. Zayas · G. WeaverZayas · WeaverC61 5520-1Fair 20-15%—61 55C▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 84LS
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 61 55
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 84LS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-70 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer George Weaver 37% career 6-for-34 on turf this meet (18%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Road To Ravello 8-1, R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1 +5 more · Trainer R4: Boomington 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1, R7: Iron Palace 5-2, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1 +2 more
A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today. Best recent figure is 61, well under the 84 par for this level.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 BEL 6½f T fsJoeAGimmaB175k 6th/6 -7L 61 16-1 Chased 4w; tired
7/21 PID 5f D MSW Won/6 by 1 55 1.1-1 Bump st;much best
5Blessednotbothered▼K. Davis · M. FerraroDavis · FerraroC59 63 53►20-1Fair 50-12%► Steady59 63 53C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 84
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 59 63 53
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 84
Jockey Katie Davis 31% career 2-for-40 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer M Anthony Ferraro 36% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Mend The Way 15-1, R8: He's Got This 20-1, R11: It's Banksy 6-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at PID. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes nongraded today.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Crcled 5w; clsd well. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (5F in 1:01.20), 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/22 PID 1m D MSW Won/5 by 1½ 59 4.7-1 Crcled 5w;clsd well
8/25 FL 5f D MSW 4th/6 -8L 63 1.4-1 4w trn; weakened
8/1 SAR 6f D fsMdSpWt 4th/6 -10L 53 15-1 2p turn;4p into lane
6Gold Fashioned▼R. Maragh · J. AntonucciMaragh · AntonucciB74 7310-1Fair 15-17%—74 73B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 74 73
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84
Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jena M Antonucci 28% career 1-for-17 on turf this meet (6%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Interstatelovesong 5-2, R4: Morning Prayer 9-2, R6: Lee's Onthe Loose 6-1, R7: Outrunner 5-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R11: Let's Get Weird 10-1, R11: It's Banksy 6-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Posted the fastest 5F work of the morning on Oct 21, in 1:01.00. Goes a mile after running 6½ furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Brush gate; weakened. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Oct 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 BEL 6½f T fsJoeAGimmaB175k 4th/6 -6½L 74 5.3-1 Brush gate; weakened
9/2 SAR 5½f T MSW Won/10 73 6.3-1 3w pursuit; edged away

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	6½f T	fsJoeAGimmaB175k	6th/6 -7L	61	16-1		Chased 4w; tired
7/21	PID	5f D	MSW	Won/6 by 1	55	1.1-1		Bump st;much best

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/22	PID	1m D	MSW	Won/5 by 1½	59	4.7-1	Crcled 5w;clsd well
8/25	FL	5f D	MSW	4th/6 -8L	63	1.4-1	4w trn; weakened
8/1	SAR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	4th/6 -10L	53	15-1	2p turn;4p into lane

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	6½f T	fsJoeAGimmaB175k	4th/6 -6½L	74	5.3-1		Brush gate; weakened
9/2	SAR	5½f T	MSW	Won/10	73	6.3-1		3w pursuit; edged away

7Under the MoonJ. Ruiz · J. SharpRuiz · SharpC79 83 79►12-1<1%► Steady79 83 79C

Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 79 83 79

Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 2-for-4 on turf this meet · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 3-for-18 on turf this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Stars On The Water 10-1, R4: Annagenda 15-1, R7: No Pressure 6-1, R9: Thundering 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R7: Marchon 12-1

WON LAST

Switches from dirt to turf. Moves up from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 22d ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	BEL	6f D	fsMdSpWt	Won/9 by 2	79	1.2-1	b	Chsd;adv3w;up late
9/18	BEL	7f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/12 -4½L	83	3.3-1		Awkwrd brk;off heels3f
8/12	SAR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	2nd/12 -4½L	79	2.6-1		Chased 3-2w; equ amb

8Luck Penny▼J. Lezcano · G. WeaverLezcano · WeaverB70 66 52▲▲+115-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best70 66 52B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 84

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 70 66 52

▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 6-for-82 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer George Weaver 37% career 6-for-34 on turf this meet (18%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Mr Webster 6-1, R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R3: Army Gal 4-1, R4: Boomington 7-2 +6 more · Trainer R4: Boomington 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1, R7: Iron Palace 5-2, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1 +2 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 52 to 66 to 70. Won last out in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; surged; up. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 22d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/18	BEL	6½f T	fsMdSpWt	Won/10 by 2½	70	5.9-1	Bumped st; surged; up
9/18	BEL	7f D	fsMdSpWt	6th/12 -12L	66	7.4-1	Ins-2p turn;7p3/16
8/1	SAR	6f D	fsMdSpWt	5th/6 -8½L	52	8.9-1	3p;bmpd hard1/4;wknd

9Golden Maiden▼A. Fresu · K. McPeekFresu · McPeekB66 795-1Fair 6-114%—66 79B▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 842
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 66 79
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84
Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-93 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Kenneth G McPeek 2-for-8 on turf this meet (25%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Port In A Storm 5-1, R2: Gold Control 6-1, R3: L'Eclair 9-2, R4: She's Our Tiz 6-1 +4 more
Runs for $175,000 today after a $400,000 race last time. Carries 122 pounds, 4 more than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Press 2w; faltered btw. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)
RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 KEE 1 1/16 T Jessamn G2 11th/11 -8¾L 66 11-1 Press 2w;faltered btw
8/30 SAR 1 1/16 T fsMdSpWt Won/12 79 4.2-1 Cut corner;geared down
10Forecheck▲▲D. Davis · L. RiceDavis · RiceA89 777-2Fair 6-114%—89 77A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 84▲ Lone speed on early pace3
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 89 77
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 84▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 5-for-85 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career ★ 5-for-22 on turf this meet (23%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Some Ride 8-1, R4: Unlock The Value 4-1, R6: Themistocles 15-1, R7: Criteria 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Army Gal 4-1, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R6: Arinato 5-1, R8: Mischief Mania 10-1
WON LAST
Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 105). Worked 5F in 1:01.80 on Oct 15, 2nd of 7 at the distance.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 6f T fsMdSpWt Won/12 89 1.7-1 Ins trn;clear3/16-1/16
9/4 SAR 5½f T fsMdSpWt 2nd/10 -3½L 77 12-1 3w pursuit; late foot

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	1 1/16 T	Jessamn G2	11th/11 -8¾L	66	11-1		Press 2w;faltered btw
8/30	SAR	1 1/16 T	fsMdSpWt	Won/12	79	4.2-1		Cut corner;geared down

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	6f T	fsMdSpWt	Won/12	89	1.7-1		Ins trn;clear3/16-1/16
9/4	SAR	5½f T	fsMdSpWt	2nd/10 -3½L	77	12-1		3w pursuit; late foot

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 10

UPCOMING

Key Cents Stakes

Field

10 runners

Purse

$175,000

Post

4:38 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 36%

Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.23

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Extravaganzoo (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 86 · 84 · 90. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #9 Golden Maiden at 5-1. Use #10 Forecheck in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 EXTRAVAGANZOO (3-1) — our number agrees.
#3 EXTRAVAGANZOO — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 23.9%, they've got 19.4%.
#10 FORECHECK — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.6% to their 17.2%).
#9 GOLDEN MAIDEN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.8% to their 12.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 EXTRAVAGANZOO — we make it 23.9%, the morning line works out to 19.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #4 BOOMESHERANG (20-1) — our fair 4.4% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: top barn (37%) + jockey (37%) at 20-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Golden Maiden; pressure from #10 Forecheck, #6 Gold Fashioned; the shape helps #1 Saint Dymphna, #2 Belmont Street, #3 Extravaganzoo; and works against #9 Golden Maiden.

Lead

9Golden Maiden88

Press

10Forecheck1056Gold Fashioned931Saint Dymphna84

Stalk

2Belmont Street947Under The Moon943Extravaganzoo925Blessednotbothered68

4Boomesherang938Luck Penny81

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Forecheck

105

Belmont Street

Under The Moon

Gold Fashioned

Extravaganzoo

Golden Maiden

Saint Dymphna

Blessednotbothered

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Boomesherang

Luck Penny

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