R8 Belmont Park · Claiming $20,000

3:18 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $40,000 · 11 runners3:18 PM · 6f Dirt · 11 runners

Upcoming $40K · Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1ToscanoH. Harkie · I. KantarmaciHarkie · KantarmaciC75 76 65▲+6@trip 8130-1<1%▲ Up +675 76 65@trip 81C

Card model <1% · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 76 65

Jockey Heman K Harkie 24% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci 28% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Trainer R5: Elysian Meadows 10-1, this race: Schlomo 20-1

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE

Class relief: $25,000 claiming last time, $20,000 claiming today. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; no response. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 6d ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	BEL	6½f D	Clm 20k b	5th/8 -3½L	75	4.7-1	b L	Bumped st; no response
9/15	FL	6f D	sAlw24500n1x	3rd/4 -8L	76	2.0-1	b L	Brk slw;passd fader
9/6	SAR	1m D	Clm 20k bc	9th/10 -6¾L	65	4.0-1	b L	Pinched back after st

2Go IrishC. Elliott · M. KantarmaciElliott · KantarmaciC60 89 69▼▼-12↕@trip 8915-1Fair 20-15%▼▼ Big drop -1260 89 69 ↕@trip 89C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 89 69

Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 4-for-52 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci 28% career 2-for-18 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Obliterated 10-1, R2: Jadugar 6-1, R3: Next On Stage 6-1, R6: Hyperborean Spirit 4-1 +2 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Beaten 6¾ lengths for 8th in an 8-horse $20,000 claiming race at BEL. An 89 top number against a 86 par, so it fits the level.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.00 on Oct 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	BEL	6f D	Clm 20k	8th/8 -6¾L	60	3.9-1	L	Ins turn;2p1/4;empty
8/29	MTH	6f D	sOC15000n1x	2nd/9 -1L	89	5.8-1	L	Vied inside; gamely
6/12	BAQ	7f D	Clm 25k c	7th/8 -6L	69	6.9-1	L	Chased 6-5w; tired

3Bold Fortune▲★D. Davis · G. WeaverDavis · WeaverA87 70 62▲▲+10↕@trip 992-1Fair 9-535%▲▲ Big jump +1087 70 62 ↕@trip 99A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86★ Best at the trip 991

Card model 35% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–99 · Best fig at today's trip 99 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 70 62

▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86★ Best at the trip 99

Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 4-for-55 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer George Weaver 37% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Some Ride 8-1, R4: Unlock The Value 4-1, R6: Themistocles 15-1, R7: Criteria 6-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Boomington 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1, R7: Iron Palace 5-2, R10: Extravaganzoo 3-1 +2 more

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 99. Has moved up each time out, 62 to 70 to 87.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 4)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; kept on. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Oct 1 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	BEL	6f D	sOC45000n2x	3rd/8 -1L	87	5.7-1	L	Bumped st; kept on
9/5	SAR	6½f D	sOC45000n2x	6th/8 -6L	70	7.8-1		Frctious gate;3-4p trn
12/14	AQU	7f D	rNYStlnSrsB500k	7th/8 -2¼L	62	2.6-1		Ins turn;2p1/4;tired

4Sully▼R. Bowen · O. BarreraBowen · BarreraA84 61 89▲▲+8↕@trip 8912-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +884 61 89 ↕@trip 89A▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 61 89

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Rocco Bowen 35% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Oscar S Iii Barrera 22% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet

60D LAYOFFWON LAST

126 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. New trainer: Linda Rice had it last time, Oscar S Iii Barrera now.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

SHARP LAST OUT In hand 3-2w; safe last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 24d back)

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/27	BAQ	6f D	Clm 25k n2lc	Won/9	84	2.2-1	L	In hand 3-2w; safe
4/8	KEE	7f D	Clm 20k n2lc	9th/11 -5¾L	61	1.4-1	L	Pressed 4-3p;wknd btwn
2/22	FG	6f D	MCL 30k	Won/7	89	1.2-1	L	Kicked clear; best

5Mischief ManiaLSJ. Lezcano · L. RiceLezcano · RiceC66 68 87▼▼-13↕@trip 8310-1Fair 8-110%▼▼ Big drop -1366 68 87 ↕@trip 83CLS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 66–87 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 68 87

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 9-for-63 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career 13-for-69 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Mr Webster 6-1, R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R3: Army Gal 4-1, R4: Boomington 7-2 +6 more · Trainer R3: Army Gal 4-1, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R6: Arinato 5-1, R10: Forecheck 7-2

60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Back after 111 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d back

RECORD Jose Lezcano from post 5 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 16 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/12	ELP	1m D	Alw s	8th/8 -6¼L	66	5.9-1	L	4p;roused 4-6p2nd;wknd
4/26	CD	7f D	Clm 40k c	4th/6 -6L	68	2.2-1	L	4p btw;kept on mildly
4/8	KEE	7f D	Clm 20k n2lc	Won/11	87	4.2-1	L	4p btw;5p1/4;drove clr

6He's Got This▼K. Davis · C. EnglehartDavis · EnglehartC77 75 75►20-1<1%► Steady77 75 75C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 77 75 75

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Katie Davis 31% career 2-for-29 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Chris Englehart 34% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Mend The Way 15-1, R10: Blessednotbothered 20-1, R11: It's Banksy 6-1 · Trainer R6: Gaynor 10-1, R11: Tampa Storm 4-1

Moves up from $12,500 claiming to $20,000 claiming. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 9 at the first call.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 23d back)

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	BEL	6½f D	Clm 12k	3rd/9 -4½L	77	4.8-1	L	Overland; belatedly
9/24	BEL	1m D	Clm 12k	7th/11 -6L	75	23-1	b L	Chased 4-2w; tired
9/6	SAR	1m D	Clm 20k b	4th/10 -1¾L	75	36-1	b L	2-3w upper; improved

7Red StateS. Marin · B. CoxMarin · CoxA85 83 82▲+5≡@trip 853-1Fair 5-231%▲ Up +585 83 82 ≡@trip 85A2

Card model 31% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 76–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 83 82

Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 7-for-54 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Broadcast 7-5, R4: Power Of Women 5-1, R5: Party In The Army 2-1, R6: Borago 7-2 +4 more · Trainer R5: Onebigbeautfulbill 3-1

CLASS UP

0 for 9 at today's distance. 2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 8.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 22 days ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	BEL	6f D	Clm 35k b	2nd/8 -1L	85	1.9-1	b L	Ins;yield3/16;no match
9/19	BEL	6f D	Clm 20k c	2nd/8 by hd	83	1.0-1	b L	6-4p trn;6p1/4;led1/16
7/9	SAR	6f D	Clm 20k c	2nd/8	82	1.3-1	b L	3w uppr;led; fought on

8Share the LudtL. Rivera Jr. · M. GiddingsRivera Jr. · GiddingsB78 80 82►@trip 8212-1Fair 20-15%► Steady78 80 82@trip 82B

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 82 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 80 82

Jockey Luis Raul Jr Rivera 34% career 0-for-24 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Melanie Giddings 28% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Bikini Changer 5-1, R3: Collective Bargain 12-1, R5: Onebigbeautfulbill 3-1, R6: A Lot Of Gold 15-1 +1 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Picks up 4 pounds from its last start. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 8, in :48.00.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brk slw; ckd st; 5w1/2), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.00 on Sep 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	FL	6f D	Alw n3l	5th/7 -6½L	78	1.2-1	b L	Brk slw;ckd st;5w1/2
9/15	FL	5½f D	Alw n3l	2nd/7 -2L	80	1.5-1	b L	4w trn;bid;just missd
8/18	FL	6f D	sOC10000n2x	6th/6 -5½L	82	5.9-1	b L	Hoppd st 2lngths slw

9Khozeiress▲E. Zayas · J. DelgadoZayas · DelgadoB77 75 90▼-4@trip 886-1<1%▼ Down -477 75 90@trip 88B▲ Rider upgrade (29% vs 23%) cutting back to a sprint

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 90

▲ Rider upgrade (29% vs 23%) cutting back to a sprint

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-42 on dirt this meet (19%), #2 of 21 · Trainer Jorge Delgado 37% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Road To Ravello 8-1, R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1 +5 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race. Was running in $40,000 claiming; today's $20,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	BEL	1m D	Clm 40k	7th/9 -5½L	77	11-1	L	4p turn;7p3/16;no kick
9/5	MTH	1 1/16 D	OC 40k n2xc	4th/5 -8L	75	3.0-1	L	Off bit slow; faded
7/19	MTH	1 1/16 D	OC 40k n2x	2nd/6	90	7.7-1	L	Pace; gamely; caught

10Uncle JimJ. Rodriguez · R. AtrasRodriguez · AtrasB75 70 81▼-4@trip 898-1Fair 7-113%▼ Down -475 70 81@trip 89B3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 70 81

Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rob Atras 32% career 3-for-11 on dirt this meet (27%), #3 of 37 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: This Time For Sure 8-1, R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R5: Elysian Meadows 10-1 +4 more

Gets a new rider, Jamie Rodriguez replacing Dylan Davis. Finished 5th in an 8-horse $20,000 claiming race at BEL, beaten 4¼ lengths.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 6d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	BEL	6f D	Clm 20k	5th/8 -4¼L	75	5.1-1	b L	3-4p turn;6p into lane
8/19	SAR	7f D	Alw s	7th/7 -6L	70	15-1	b L	Bmp brk;3-4p trn;6p1/4
5/3	BAQ	6½f D	Clm 40k c	3rd/5 -3L	81	9.2-1	b L	Bumped st; kept on

11Schlomo▼P. Pena · I. KantarmaciPena · KantarmaciC80 75 83►≡@trip 8720-1<1%► Steady80 75 83 ≡@trip 87C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 75 83

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Pedro Pena 25% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci 28% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Mermaid Magic 15-1, R4: Miami Style 20-1, R5: What's Up Bro 6-1, R6: Unspoken 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Elysian Meadows 10-1, this race: Toscano 30-1

CLASS UP

Was running in $25,000 claiming; today's $20,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Last out was 4th, 1 length behind the winner, in an 8-horse $25,000 claiming race at BEL.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 6d ago

RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	BEL	6½f D	Clm 20k b	4th/8 -1L	80	8.2-1	b L	Blind switch to 1/8p
9/16	FL	1 1/16 D	Clm 11k n3l	4th/5 -2½L	75	1.4-1	b L	4w3/4;mssd place
8/15	SAR	6f D	Clm 30k n3l	5th/7 -3½L	83	16-1	b L	Dueled 2p; weakened

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BELMONT PARK · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Claiming $20,000

Field

11 runners

Purse

$40,000

Post

3:18 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 35%

Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.66

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Bold Fortune (early speed, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 87 · 70 · 62. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Red State at 3-1. Use #10 Uncle Jim in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 BOLD FORTUNE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 BOLD FORTUNE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 34.4%, they've got 26.2%.
#7 RED STATE — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 28.6%, they've got 19.7%.
#10 UNCLE JIM — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 12.5%, the board 8.7%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 BOLD FORTUNE — we make it 34.4%, the morning line works out to 26.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#7 RED STATE — we make it 28.6%, the morning line works out to 19.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 MISCHIEF MANIA (10-1) — our fair 10.3% is above the morning line's 7.1%; supported by: top barn (37%) + jockey (33%) at 10-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #11 Schlomo; pressure from #3 Bold Fortune, #4 Sully; the shape helps #2 Go Irish, #4 Sully, #5 Mischief Mania; and works against #3 Bold Fortune, #11 Schlomo.

Lead

11Schlomo923Bold Fortune88

Press

4Sully957Red State942Go Irish86

Stalk

10Uncle Jim859Khozeiress838Share The Ludt775Mischief Mania73

1Toscano886He's Got This67

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Sully

Red State

Schlomo

Bold Fortune

Go Irish

Uncle Jim

Khozeiress

Share The Ludt

Mischief Mania

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Toscano

He's Got This

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 8 & 9

PICK 3 ($1) (8-10); PICK 4 (.50) (8-11)

TBredIQ shows analysis only. We don’t build tickets or suggest amounts.

BET OPTIONS

WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

Wagers offered on this race — analysis only, no stake sizing.