1Iron PalaceE. Zayas · G. WeaverZayas · WeaverA85 82 86►5-2Fair 5-231%
► Steady85 82 86A1Card model 31% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 85 82 86
Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-70 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer George Weaver 37% career 6-for-34 on turf this meet (18%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Road To Ravello 8-1, R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1 +5 more · Trainer R4: Boomington 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1, R10: Extravaganzoo 3-1 +2 moreLASIX 1STLast out was 2nd, 2¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse race at BEL. Runs for $105,000 today after a $175,000 race last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 BEL 7f T BrcksMrtrB175k 2nd/9 -2¼L 85 8.9-1 8w upper; mild kick 8/29 SAR 1 1/16 T OC 100k n1x 5th/8 -½L 82 5.2-1 L 2p;4p3/16;5p;gave way 7/9 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW Won/10 86 28-1 L In hand 2p; held safe 2No PressureJ. Ruiz · P. AntonacciRuiz · AntonacciB84 856-1Fair 7-113%
—84 85B2Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 84 85
Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 2-for-4 on turf this meet · Trainer Philip Antonacci 30% career ★ 4-for-20 on turf this meet (20%)Also today · Jockey R1: Stars On The Water 10-1, R4: Annagenda 15-1, R9: Thundering 20-1, R10: Under The Moon 12-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Lyneham 8-1, R11: Violent Act 3-1180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTFreshened 309 days. Watch how its recent works look. Winner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at GP last time.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP 4f in :51.00 on Oct 3 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 12/26 GP 1 1/16 T MSW Won/9 84 2.5-1 2w; up 1/4; edge ahead 9/13 BAQ 6f T MSW 2nd/10 -3½L 85 2.9-1 Ins-2p turn;stdied1/4 3Lyneham▼S. Marin · P. AntonacciMarin · AntonacciC788-1Fair 8-112%
—78C▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 863Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 78
▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-76 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Philip Antonacci 30% career ★ 4-for-20 on turf this meet (20%)Also today · Jockey R1: Broadcast 7-5, R4: Power Of Women 5-1, R5: Party In The Army 2-1, R6: Borago 7-2 +4 more · Trainer this race: No Pressure 6-1, R11: Violent Act 3-1LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSPhilip Antonacci takes over the training from Christophe Ferland. Purse drops from $200,000 to $105,000 against its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 7d back)RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 SAR 1m T GioPontiB200k 7th/9 -8L 78 6.6-1 3w upper; no response 8/9 DVL 1m T Dphns - JcJ G3 5th/12 — — 7/9 NKT 1m T Edmndsn Hll79k 4th/7 — 28-1 4RepentlessJ. Rodriguez · K. DannerRodriguez · DannerC81 83 81►≡12-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady81 83 81 ≡CCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Last 3 figs 81 83 81
Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Kelsey Danner 35% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: This Time For Sure 8-1, R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R5: Elysian Meadows 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: This Time For Sure 8-1★ FASTEST WORKAn 83 top number against a 86 par, so it fits the level. Led at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 26 (3F in :36.00), 2 works in 30dRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 BEL 1m T Alw n1x 7th/11 -1½L 81 4.1-1 L Pace ins; weakened 8/29 KD 7f T Alw n1x 3rd/11 -5¼L 83 3.6-1 L Steered out;big rally 10/26 CD 1m D OC 100k n1x 3rd/7 -3L 81 6.8-1 Bmpd btw st;ins;nomtch 5CommerceA. Fresu · W. MottFresu · MottA84 90 82►10-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady84 90 82ACard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 84 90 82
Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-93 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 0-for-32 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Port In A Storm 5-1, R2: Gold Control 6-1, R3: L'Eclair 9-2, R4: She's Our Tiz 6-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Mr Webster 6-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Shortens up to 7½ furlongs after going 1 1/8 miles.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 25 (4F in :48.00), 4 works in 30dRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 SAR 1⅛m D Alw n1x 7th/9 -8½L 84 19-1 b L 3-5 trns;6p into lane 7/10 SAR 1⅛m D MSW Won/5 90 2.4-1 b L In hand ins; edged clr 6/5 SAR 1⅛m D MSW 4th/9 -4L 82 3.3-1 b L Bmp brk;2-3p2nd;wknd 6MarchonLSV. Cheminaud · J. SharpCheminaud · Sharp?12-1Fair 15-16%
——?LSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
LSLongshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 3-for-18 on turf this meet (17%)Also today · Jockey R1: Loyal Prince 15-1, R2: Fireinhereyes 4-1, R4: Velocity Girl 20-1, R5: B Thedonald 6-1 · Trainer R10: Under The Moon 12-1180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSReturns from a 385-day break, the biggest in the field. Runs for $105,000 after a $58,359 race last out.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (4 works in 30d, last 5d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 CHY 1⅛m T Fabuleux58k 8th/8 — — 4/4 STC 1 5/16 T Alw Won/5 — — 3/4 CHY 1 3/16 D MSW Won/9 — — 7After TaxesJ. Lezcano · B. BrownLezcano · BrownC81 85 90▼-4@trip 7610-1Fair 15-17%
▼ Down -481 85 90@trip 76CCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 85 90
Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 6-for-82 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Bruce R Brown 37% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Mr Webster 6-1, R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R3: Army Gal 4-1, R4: Boomington 7-2 +6 more3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKTrending the wrong way on speed, 90 to 85 to 81. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 7½ furlongs.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.60 on Oct 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30dRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 SAR 5½f T Alw n1x 5th/8 -1½L 81 7.0-1 L Chased 4-3w; wknd late 8/9 SAR 5½f T Alw n1x 5th/10 -1¾L 85 3.7-1 L Bobbled brk;ins;chsd 7/9 SAR 5½f T OC 45k Won/11 90 8.4-1 L Out;3-2p trn;responded 8Cuando▲L. Rivera Jr. · B. LevineRivera Jr. · LevineB91 81 77▲▲+16↕10-1<1%
▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best91 81 77 ↕B▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 86Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–91 · Last 3 figs 91 81 77
▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 86Jockey Luis Raul Jr Rivera 34% career 2-for-19 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Bruce Levine 28% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R2: Bikini Changer 5-1, R3: Collective Bargain 12-1, R5: Onebigbeautfulbill 3-1, R6: A Lot Of Gold 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Miracle Michael 8-160D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFigure of 91 on the record sits above the 86 par. Figures are climbing: 77, 81, 91 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 15; 3 works in 30dRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/6 SAR 1m T Alw n1x 6th/7 -¾L 91 41-1 b L Ins;headed ins3/16;wkn 7/11 SAR 5½f T Alw n1x 6th/10 -1L 81 8.6-1 b L Ins trn;headed ins3/16 6/19 BAQ 6f T Alw n1x 5th/7 -3½L 77 2.2-1 b L 2p turn;3p1/4;btwn1/8 9OutrunnerR. Maragh · J. Duarte Jr.Maragh · Duarte Jr.B75 79 84▼-6≡5-1Fair 10-19%
▼ Down -675 79 84 ≡BCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Last 3 figs 75 79 84
Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jorge Jr Duarte 25% career 0-for-1 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R3: Interstatelovesong 5-2, R4: Morning Prayer 9-2, R6: Lee's Onthe Loose 6-1, R9: A Bourbon For Toby 15-1 +2 more◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 6-horse allowance race at MED. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; rail rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 9d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 MED 1m T Alw n1x Won/6 by hd 75 0.5-1 b L Bumped st; rail rally 8/13 CNL 1m T Alw n1x 4th/10 -6L 79 2.2-1 b L 2-3p;bmpd;steadied1/8 6/26 CNL 1m T Alw n1x 3rd/9 -½L 84 1.3-1 b L 3w1st;bid4w;outfnshed 10Criteria▲D. Davis · C. BrownDavis · BrownA88 85 92►6-1Fair 10-110%
► Steady88 85 92A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 88 85 92
▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 5-for-85 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 18-for-68 on turf this meet (26%), #3 of 50Also today · Jockey R3: Some Ride 8-1, R4: Unlock The Value 4-1, R6: Themistocles 15-1, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Unlock The Value 4-1, R9: Program Trading 2-1Switches from dirt to turf. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 92, with 91 next best.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/30 BEL 6½f D Alw n1x 4th/7 -4¾L 88 7.4-1 L Fractious gate;ins-2p 8/13 SAR 6f D MSW Won/8 85 1.7-1 L Ins-2p turn;responded 7/18 SAR 7f D MSW 3rd/9 -1L 92 3.3-1 L Light hold 2p; kept on
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BELMONT PARK · RACE 7
UPCOMINGAllowance · $105,000 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #1 Iron Palace (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 85 · 82 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 No Pressure at 6-1. Use #3 Lyneham in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 IRON PALACE (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #1 IRON PALACE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 26.1%, they've got 22.4%.
- #2 NO PRESSURE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 11.2%).
- #9 OUTRUNNER — our #5 number, about right at the windows (12.2% to their 13.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- #1 IRON PALACE — we make it 26.1%, the morning line works out to 22.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 LYNEHAM (8-1) — our fair 10.2% is above the morning line's 8.7%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #8 Cuando; pressure from #7 After Taxes, #4 Repentless; the shape helps #1 Iron Palace, #2 No Pressure, #4 Repentless; and works against #3 Lyneham, #6 Marchon, #8 Cuando.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 7 & 8; PICK 3 ($1) (7-9)
GRAND SLAM ($1) (7-10); LATE PICK 5 (.50) (7-11)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta