R7 Belmont Park · Allowance · $105,000 purse

2:38 PM ET · 7 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $105,000 · 10 runners2:38 PM · 7½f Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $105K · Allowance · $105,000 purse

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Iron PalaceE. Zayas · G. WeaverZayas · WeaverA85 82 86►5-2Fair 5-231%► Steady85 82 86A1

    Card model 31% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 85 82 86

    Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-70 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer George Weaver 37% career 6-for-34 on turf this meet (18%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Road To Ravello 8-1, R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1 +5 more · Trainer R4: Boomington 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1, R10: Extravaganzoo 3-1 +2 more
    LASIX 1ST

    Last out was 2nd, 2¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse race at BEL. Runs for $105,000 today after a $175,000 race last time.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10BEL7f TBrcksMrtrB175k2nd/9 -2¼L858.9-18w upper; mild kick
    8/29SAR1 1/16 TOC 100k n1x5th/8 -½L825.2-1L2p;4p3/16;5p;gave way
    7/9SAR1 1/16 TMSWWon/108628-1LIn hand 2p; held safe
  2. 2No PressureJ. Ruiz · P. AntonacciRuiz · AntonacciB84 856-1Fair 7-113%—84 85B2

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 84 85

    Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 2-for-4 on turf this meet · Trainer Philip Antonacci 30% career ★ 4-for-20 on turf this meet (20%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Stars On The Water 10-1, R4: Annagenda 15-1, R9: Thundering 20-1, R10: Under The Moon 12-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Lyneham 8-1, R11: Violent Act 3-1
    180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

    Freshened 309 days. Watch how its recent works look. Winner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at GP last time.

    PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :51.00 on Oct 3 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    12/26GP1 1/16 TMSWWon/9842.5-12w; up 1/4; edge ahead
    9/13BAQ6f TMSW2nd/10 -3½L852.9-1Ins-2p turn;stdied1/4
  3. 3Lyneham▼S. Marin · P. AntonacciMarin · AntonacciC788-1Fair 8-112%—78C▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 863

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 78

    ▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 86
    Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-76 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Philip Antonacci 30% career ★ 4-for-20 on turf this meet (20%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Broadcast 7-5, R4: Power Of Women 5-1, R5: Party In The Army 2-1, R6: Borago 7-2 +4 more · Trainer this race: No Pressure 6-1, R11: Violent Act 3-1
    LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Philip Antonacci takes over the training from Christophe Ferland. Purse drops from $200,000 to $105,000 against its last start.

    PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 7d back)
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/7SAR1m TGioPontiB200k7th/9 -8L786.6-13w upper; no response
    8/9DVL1m TDphns - JcJ G35th/12——
    7/9NKT1m TEdmndsn Hll79k4th/7—28-1
  4. 4RepentlessJ. Rodriguez · K. DannerRodriguez · DannerC81 83 81►≡12-1Fair 15-16%► Steady81 83 81 ≡C

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Last 3 figs 81 83 81

    Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Kelsey Danner 35% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: This Time For Sure 8-1, R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R5: Elysian Meadows 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: This Time For Sure 8-1
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    An 83 top number against a 86 par, so it fits the level. Led at the first call last time.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 26 (3F in :36.00), 2 works in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/4BEL1m TAlw n1x7th/11 -1½L814.1-1LPace ins; weakened
    8/29KD7f TAlw n1x3rd/11 -5¼L833.6-1LSteered out;big rally
    10/26CD1m DOC 100k n1x3rd/7 -3L816.8-1Bmpd btw st;ins;nomtch
  5. 5CommerceA. Fresu · W. MottFresu · MottA84 90 82►10-1Fair 15-16%► Steady84 90 82A

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 84 90 82

    Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-93 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 0-for-32 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Port In A Storm 5-1, R2: Gold Control 6-1, R3: L'Eclair 9-2, R4: She's Our Tiz 6-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Mr Webster 6-1
    4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

    Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Shortens up to 7½ furlongs after going 1 1/8 miles.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 25 (4F in :48.00), 4 works in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/5SAR1⅛m DAlw n1x7th/9 -8½L8419-1b L3-5 trns;6p into lane
    7/10SAR1⅛m DMSWWon/5902.4-1b LIn hand ins; edged clr
    6/5SAR1⅛m DMSW4th/9 -4L823.3-1b LBmp brk;2-3p2nd;wknd
  6. 6MarchonLSV. Cheminaud · J. SharpCheminaud · Sharp?12-1Fair 15-16%——?LS

    Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?

    LS

    Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 3-for-18 on turf this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Loyal Prince 15-1, R2: Fireinhereyes 4-1, R4: Velocity Girl 20-1, R5: B Thedonald 6-1 · Trainer R10: Under The Moon 12-1
    180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Returns from a 385-day break, the biggest in the field. Runs for $105,000 after a $58,359 race last out.

    PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS Average work schedule for this field (4 works in 30d, last 5d ago)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/11CHY1⅛m TFabuleux58k8th/8——
    4/4STC1 5/16 TAlwWon/5——
    3/4CHY1 3/16 DMSWWon/9——
  7. 7After TaxesJ. Lezcano · B. BrownLezcano · BrownC81 85 90▼-4@trip 7610-1Fair 15-17%▼ Down -481 85 90@trip 76C

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 85 90

    Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 6-for-82 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Bruce R Brown 37% career 0-for-14 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Mr Webster 6-1, R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R3: Army Gal 4-1, R4: Boomington 7-2 +6 more
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 90 to 85 to 81. Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to 7½ furlongs.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.60 on Oct 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/5SAR5½f TAlw n1x5th/8 -1½L817.0-1LChased 4-3w; wknd late
    8/9SAR5½f TAlw n1x5th/10 -1¾L853.7-1LBobbled brk;ins;chsd
    7/9SAR5½f TOC 45kWon/11908.4-1LOut;3-2p trn;responded
  8. 8Cuando▲L. Rivera Jr. · B. LevineRivera Jr. · LevineB91 81 77▲▲+16↕10-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best91 81 77 ↕B▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 86

    Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 67–91 · Last 3 figs 91 81 77

    ▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 86
    Jockey Luis Raul Jr Rivera 34% career 2-for-19 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Bruce Levine 28% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Bikini Changer 5-1, R3: Collective Bargain 12-1, R5: Onebigbeautfulbill 3-1, R6: A Lot Of Gold 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R6: Miracle Michael 8-1
    60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Figure of 91 on the record sits above the 86 par. Figures are climbing: 77, 81, 91 over its last three.

    PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 15; 3 works in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/6SAR1m TAlw n1x6th/7 -¾L9141-1b LIns;headed ins3/16;wkn
    7/11SAR5½f TAlw n1x6th/10 -1L818.6-1b LIns trn;headed ins3/16
    6/19BAQ6f TAlw n1x5th/7 -3½L772.2-1b L2p turn;3p1/4;btwn1/8
  9. 9OutrunnerR. Maragh · J. Duarte Jr.Maragh · Duarte Jr.B75 79 84▼-6≡5-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -675 79 84 ≡B

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Last 3 figs 75 79 84

    Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Jorge Jr Duarte 25% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Interstatelovesong 5-2, R4: Morning Prayer 9-2, R6: Lee's Onthe Loose 6-1, R9: A Bourbon For Toby 15-1 +2 more
    ◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWON LAST

    Comes in off a victory in a 6-horse allowance race at MED. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today.

    PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; rail rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 9d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/19MED1m TAlw n1xWon/6 by hd750.5-1b LBumped st; rail rally
    8/13CNL1m TAlw n1x4th/10 -6L792.2-1b L2-3p;bmpd;steadied1/8
    6/26CNL1m TAlw n1x3rd/9 -½L841.3-1b L3w1st;bid4w;outfnshed
  10. 10Criteria▲D. Davis · C. BrownDavis · BrownA88 85 92►6-1Fair 10-110%► Steady88 85 92A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86

    Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 88 85 92

    ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86
    Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 5-for-85 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 18-for-68 on turf this meet (26%), #3 of 50
    Also today · Jockey R3: Some Ride 8-1, R4: Unlock The Value 4-1, R6: Themistocles 15-1, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Unlock The Value 4-1, R9: Program Trading 2-1

    Switches from dirt to turf. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 92, with 91 next best.

    PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30BEL6½f DAlw n1x4th/7 -4¾L887.4-1LFractious gate;ins-2p
    8/13SAR6f DMSWWon/8851.7-1LIns-2p turn;responded
    7/18SAR7f DMSW3rd/9 -1L923.3-1LLight hold 2p; kept on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½¾FINISHSTART7 1/2 FURLONGS · TURF · infield2-turn

BELMONT PARK · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Allowance · $105,000 purse

Field
10 runners
Purse
$105,000
Post
2:38 PM ET
Pace
Pressed Pace
Card model top pick
#1 · 31%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #1 Iron Palace (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 85 · 82 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 No Pressure at 6-1. Use #3 Lyneham in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #1 IRON PALACE (5-2) — our number agrees.
  • #1 IRON PALACE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 26.1%, they've got 22.4%.
  • #2 NO PRESSURE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 11.2%).
  • #9 OUTRUNNER — our #5 number, about right at the windows (12.2% to their 13.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • #1 IRON PALACE — we make it 26.1%, the morning line works out to 22.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 LYNEHAM (8-1) — our fair 10.2% is above the morning line's 8.7%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Cuando; pressure from #7 After Taxes, #4 Repentless; the shape helps #1 Iron Palace, #2 No Pressure, #4 Repentless; and works against #3 Lyneham, #6 Marchon, #8 Cuando.

Lead
8Cuando99
Press
7After Taxes934Repentless871Iron Palace8610Criteria862No Pressure79
Stalk
9Outrunner875Commerce75
Close
none
No style yet
3Lyneham766Marchon

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

8
Cuando
99
7
After Taxes
93
4
Repentless
87
9
Outrunner
87
1
Iron Palace
86
10
Criteria
86
2
No Pressure
79
5
Commerce
75

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

8
Cuando
19
4
Repentless
17
9
Outrunner
17
5
Commerce
10
7
After Taxes
10
3
Lyneham
8
10
Criteria
8
2
No Pressure
5
6
Marchon
0
1
Iron Palace
-5
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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 7 & 8; PICK 3 ($1) (7-9)

GRAND SLAM ($1) (7-10); LATE PICK 5 (.50) (7-11)

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