★ Distance horse: #3 Next on Stage (6-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 96 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.
1Army GalRan 4thJ. Lezcano · L. RiceLezcano · RiceB75 84 80▼-7≡@trip 844-1Fair 5-116%
▼ Down -775 84 80 ≡@trip 84B3Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 84 80
Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 9-for-63 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career 13-for-69 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Mr Webster 6-1, R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R4: Boomington 7-2, R5: Master Freud 15-1 +6 more · Trainer this race: Roman Grace 7-2, R6: Arinato 5-1, R8: Mischief Mania 10-1, R10: Forecheck 7-260D LAYOFFFreshened 91 days. Watch how its recent works look. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 14d agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/1 SAR 5½f T Alw n1x 9th/10 -4¼L 75 29-1 b L Ins-3p turn;asked4p1/4 7/11 SAR 6f D OC 55k n1x 3rd/6 -1½L 84 3.1-1 L Hit gate st; led; wknd 5/9 BAQ 6f D OC 55k n1x 4th/8 -1¾L 80 2.3-1 L 2-4p;swung7w;miss 3rd 2Collective Bargain▼Ran 2ndL. Rivera Jr. · C. SummersRivera Jr. · SummersC74 74 76►@trip 7612-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady74 74 76@trip 76C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 87Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 74 76
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 87Jockey Luis Raul Jr Rivera 34% career 0-for-24 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Chad Summers 35% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Bikini Changer 5-1, R5: Onebigbeautfulbill 3-1, R6: A Lot Of Gold 15-1, R7: Cuando 10-1 +1 moreWON LASTWon last out in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at CT. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and allowance optional claiming now.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.60 on Sep 11 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 CT 4½f D MSW Won/8 74 0.2-1 b L Rushed;clr1/4;driving 8/26 SAR 5½f T MSW 8th/8 -3L 74 32-1 b L Pressed 2p; tired 8/2 MTH 6f D MSW 2nd/4 -2½L 76 2.6-1 b L Inside; rallied 3w 3Next on Stage★Ran 5thC. Elliott · F. AbreuElliott · AbreuB63 88 83▼▼-22↕@trip 966-1Fair 12-18%
▼▼ Big drop -2263 88 83 ↕@trip 96B★ Best at the trip 96Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–88 · Best fig at today's trip 96 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 88 83
★ Best at the trip 96Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 4-for-52 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Fernando Abreu 32% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Obliterated 10-1, R2: Jadugar 6-1, R6: Hyperborean Spirit 4-1, R8: Go Irish 15-1 +2 moreTops the field on speed figures, a 96 against 95 for the next best. Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 62 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/23 BEL 1m D OC 55k n1x 7th/10 -11L 63 20-1 L 3-2path turn;faded 10/1 BEL 6½f D OC 55k n1xc 5th/9 -5¼L 88 4.3-1 L 6-7w upper; late foot 9/6 SAR 6½f D OC 55k n1xc 6th/7 -6L 83 4.0-1 L Toss head st;3-4p;5p2F 4L'eclair▲Ran 1stA. Fresu · R. DutrowFresu · DutrowA93 79 85▲▲+12@trip 839-2Fair 6-115%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best93 79 85@trip 83A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 87Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 83 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 79 85
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 87Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 6-for-51 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Richard E Dutrow 22% career ★ 4-for-19 on dirt this meet (21%)Also today · Jockey R1: Port In A Storm 5-1, R2: Gold Control 6-1, R4: She's Our Tiz 6-1, R5: Truman's Commander 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R10: Belmont Street 6-1CLASS DROP2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Last out was 3rd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at BEL.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 5d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 BEL 6½f D OC 55k n1x 3rd/9 -2L 93 8.0-1 b L 3w upper; mild kick 8/19 SAR 7f D OC 75k 3rd/7 -3L 79 3.2-1 L Chased 5-3w; improved 6/18 BAQ 7f D OC 75k c 4th/5 -¾L 85 3.0-1 L 2-3w upper; kept on 5Roman GraceRan 7thE. Zayas · L. RiceZayas · RiceA86 84 84▲▲+8↕@trip 927-2Fair 5-117%
▲▲ Big jump +886 84 84 ↕@trip 92A2Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–86 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 84 84
Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-42 on dirt this meet (19%), #2 of 21 · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career 13-for-69 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Road To Ravello 8-1, R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1, R6: Miracle Michael 8-1 +5 more · Trainer this race: Army Gal 4-1, R6: Arinato 5-1, R8: Mischief Mania 10-1, R10: Forecheck 7-2CLASS DROPLed at the first call last time. Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd in a 7-horse optional claiming race at SAR.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 14d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/6 SAR 6½f D OC 55k n1xv 3rd/7 -2L 86 9.2-1 L Ins;headed1/4;tired 6/7 SAR 7f D OC 80k b 5th/5 -10L 84 7.0-1 L Prompted2-3w;tired str 5/9 BAQ 6f D OC 55k n1xc Won/8 by 1 84 5.9-1 L 3p;5w uppr;edged clear 6Mermaid Magic▼Ran 8thP. Pena · J. JimenezPena · JimenezC73 49 78▲▲+10@trip 7815-1Fair 30-13%
▲▲ Big jump +1073 49 78@trip 78C▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 87Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 49 78
▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 87Jockey Pedro Pena 25% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jose L Jimenez 23% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R4: Miami Style 20-1, R5: What's Up Bro 6-1, R6: Unspoken 12-1, R8: Schlomo 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R11: Always Honest 15-1Moves up from allowance to allowance optional claiming. A 78 is the high figure lately, short of the 87 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 11 days agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 FL 5½f D Alw n2l 2nd/8 73 3.3-1 b L Drftd out str;missed 8/8 SAR 7f D OC 55k n1x 8th/8 -19L 49 31-1 L 5-4p turn;3p1/4;falter 7/5 MTH 6f D MSW Won/3 78 1.6-1 L Turned back bid; clear 7Some RideLSRan 6thD. Davis · A. DutrowDavis · DutrowB82 83 81►≡8-1Fair 10-110%
► Steady82 83 81 ≡BLSCard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–83 · Last 3 figs 82 83 81
LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 4-for-55 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Anthony W Dutrow 22% career 1-for-1 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R4: Unlock The Value 4-1, R6: Themistocles 15-1, R7: Criteria 6-1, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1 +2 more★ FASTEST WORKSwitches from turf to dirt. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 17, in :46.60.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.60 on Oct 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dRECORD Dylan Davis from post 7 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 18 rides · 5% wins from all posts hereRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 BEL 6½f T Alw n1x 9th/12 -6½L 82 21-1 b L Hesitant st; weakened 4/19 AQU 7f D OC 100k n1x 3rd/6 -1L 83 9.7-1 b L 4p trn;bid ins1/8;miss 3/21 LRL 1m D BeyndWireB100k 3rd/5 81 8.2-1 b Bump start;4w move 8InterstatelovesongRan 3rdR. Maragh · T. MorleyMaragh · MorleyA86 95 78►5-2Fair 3-125%
► Steady86 95 78A1Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 86 95 78
Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-22 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Thomas Morley 29% career 2-for-7 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R4: Morning Prayer 9-2, R6: Lee's Onthe Loose 6-1, R7: Outrunner 5-1, R9: A Bourbon For Toby 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Morning Prayer 9-2, R9: A Bourbon For Toby 15-1◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS245 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 6)TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; kept on. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 8d backRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 2/28 AQU 1m D Busher Stk 3rd/5 by hd 86 2.1-1 Bumped st; kept on 2/6 AQU 7f D RuthlessB135k 2nd/6 by hd 95 3.3-1 Led 2p; duel 2x; game 12/26 AQU 6½f D MSW Won/6 78 0.5-1 In hand ins; drew clr
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #8 Interstatelovesong, finished 3rd.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BELMONT PARK · RACE 3
OFFICIALOptional Claiming $55,000
Claiming $55,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.66
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #8 Interstatelovesong (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 86 · 95 · 78. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Roman Grace at 7-2. Use #1 Army Gal in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · 3RD
Top pick Interstatelovesong ran 3rd · L'Eclair won (our #4)
What worked
- ✓ Top pick in the money (3rd)
What didn't
- ✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
- ✗ Our top 3 finished 3rd, 7th, 4th
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #8 INTERSTATELOVESONG | 3rd |
| #2 | #5 ROMAN GRACE | 7th |
| #3 | #1 ARMY GAL | 4th |
| #4 | #4 L'ECLAIR | 1st |
| #5 | #7 SOME RIDE | 6th |
Actual finish
| 1st | #4 L'Eclair | our #4 |
| 2nd | #2 Collective Bargain | our #7 |
| 3rd | #8 Interstatelovesong | our #1 |
| 4th | #1 Army Gal | our #3 |
| 5th | #3 Next On Stage | our #6 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 INTERSTATELOVESONG (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #8 INTERSTATELOVESONG — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.8% to their 22.3%).
- #5 ROMAN GRACE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.1% to their 17.3%).
- #1 ARMY GAL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.1% to their 15.6%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Mermaid Magic; pressure from #8 Interstatelovesong, #5 Roman Grace; the shape helps #1 Army Gal, #2 Collective Bargain, #3 Next On Stage; and works against #6 Mermaid Magic, #8 Interstatelovesong.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 3 & 4; PICK 3 ($1) (3-5)
MANDATORY PAYOUT PICK 5 (.50) (3-7)
BET OPTIONS
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