R6 Belmont Park · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

1:58 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Turf · $100,000 · 3 runners (8 out)1:58 PM · 6f Turf · 3 runners (8 out)

Official $100K · State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Lee's Onthe Loose▼Ran 3rdR. Maragh · A. DevauxMaragh · DevauxA716-1Fair 10-19%—71A▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 81

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 71

    ▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 81
    Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Adrianne Devaux
    Also today · Jockey R3: Interstatelovesong 5-2, R4: Morning Prayer 9-2, R7: Outrunner 5-1, R9: A Bourbon For Toby 15-1 +2 more
    60D LAYOFF

    New trainer: Daniel Hurtak had it last time, Adrianne Devaux now. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/23GP5f TMSW2nd/6 -3½L716.7-1bSettled; late rail bid
  2. 2GaynorA. Worrie · C. EnglehartWorrie · Englehart?10-111%—Debut?

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?

    Jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie 35% career · Trainer Chris Englehart 34% career 2-for-13 on turf this meet (15%) ★ hot
    Also today · Trainer R8: He's Got This 20-1, R11: Tampa Storm 4-1

    Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Vekoma and Michele The Great breeding. Debut for a trainer who is 12% with first-timers, over 65 starts.

    EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 1; 3 works in 30d

    Last three races

    First start. By Vekoma out of Michele the Great (Distorted Humor)
    Trainer C. Englehart: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 32% in the money (65 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 12% wins, 39% in the money (41 starts) · Maiden special weights: 16% wins, 48% in the money (202 starts)
    Jockey A. Worrie in turf: 0 wins from 9 (0%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/22BEL4f:49.00breezing4/36from gate
    10/10BEL4f:49.60breezing42/87
    10/1FL4f:47.20breezing1/15● bullet from gate
    9/18FL3f:37.20breezing3/5
    8/18FL4f:49.20breezing12/32
  3. 3Borago▼S. Marin · A. GreenMarin · GreenA69 757-224%—69 75A▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81

    Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 69 75

    ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81
    Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-76 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Broadcast 7-5, R4: Power Of Women 5-1, R5: Party In The Army 2-1, R7: Lyneham 8-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R9: West Hollywood 15-1, R10: Saint Dymphna 12-1

    Tops the field on speed figures, a 75 against 73 for the next best. Finished 5th in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at BEL, beaten 3¼ lengths.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9BEL6½f TsMdSpWt5th/11 -3¼L693.0-1Bmpd in;2-4w;chsd on
    9/3SAR5½f TMSW3rd/10 -4¾L7512-1Ins-3p trn;7p3/16;gain
  4. 4Miracle Michael▼▲LSRan 1stE. Zayas · B. LevineZayas · LevineB59 718-1Fair 8-111%—59 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 81▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

    Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 59 71

    ▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 81▲ Lone speed on early paceLS

    Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

    Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-70 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer Bruce Levine 28% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Road To Ravello 8-1, R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1 +5 more · Trainer R7: Cuando 10-1

    Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Edgard J Zayas takes over from J J Castellano in the saddle.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage. (early-speed points: 6)
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10BEL6f DsMdSpWt5th/8 -3L591.9-1Vie2w;wknd ins lead
    9/6SAR5½f DsMdSpWt2nd/10 -4½L7110-1Unruly gate;3path turn
  5. 5A Lot of Gold▼L. Rivera Jr. · J. Pregman Jr.Rivera Jr. · Pregman Jr.B64 6015-13%—64 60B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 81

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 64 60

    ▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 81
    Jockey Luis Raul Jr Rivera 34% career 2-for-19 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer John Jr Pregman 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R2: Bikini Changer 5-1, R3: Collective Bargain 12-1, R5: Onebigbeautfulbill 3-1, R7: Cuando 10-1 +1 more
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    A 64 is the high figure lately, short of the 81 par. Last out was 7th, 5¾ lengths behind the winner, in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.

    EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Pinch st; by faders. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 8; 2 works in 30d
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9BEL6½f TsMdSpWt7th/11 -5¾L6424-1bPinch st; by faders
    9/20BEL6f DsMdSpWt7th/12 -6½L608.4-1bSlow into stride;7p1/4
  6. 6UnspokenP. Pena · D. SchettinoPena · Schettino?12-14%—Debut?

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?

    Jockey Pedro Pena 25% career 1-for-12 on turf this meet (8%) · Trainer Dominick A Schettino 22% career 0-for-4 on turf this meet
    Also today · Jockey R3: Mermaid Magic 15-1, R4: Miami Style 20-1, R5: What's Up Bro 6-1, R8: Schlomo 20-1 +1 more

    Unraced; this barn has 22 first-time starters on record and wins 0% of them. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 11.

    EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 6d back

    Last three races

    First start. By Mind Control out of Gee Linz (Frost Giant)
    Trainer D. Schettino: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 23% in the money (22 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 31% in the money (13 starts) · Maiden special weights: 5% wins, 26% in the money (38 starts)
    Jockey P. Pena in turf: 10 wins from 59 (17%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/25BEL4f:47.60breezing7/55
    10/18BEL4f:48.00breezing18/60
    10/11BEL4f:48.80breezing12/38from gate
    10/1BEL4f:49.60breezing36/63
    9/22BEL4f:50.60breezing18/21
  7. 7Mend the WayRan 2ndK. Davis · C. BakerDavis · Baker?15-1Fair 30-13%—Debut?

    Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?

    Jockey Katie Davis 31% career 2-for-40 on turf this meet (5%) · Trainer Charlton Baker 27% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R8: He's Got This 20-1, R10: Blessednotbothered 20-1, R11: It's Banksy 6-1

    Unraced, but the Oct 8 work, 5F in 1:01.00, was the fastest at that distance that morning. First career start, by Mendelssohn out of Way Smarter.

    EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 8; 3 works in 30d

    Last three races

    First start. By Mendelssohn out of Way Smarter (Smart Strike)
    Trainer C. Baker: 1st-time starters: 4% wins, 23% in the money (48 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 5% wins, 22% in the money (41 starts) · Maiden special weights: 8% wins, 43% in the money (173 starts)
    Jockey K. Davis in turf: 8 wins from 112 (7%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/24BEL4f:48.80breezing17/91
    10/15BEL4f:51.20breezing44/52
    10/8BEL5f1:01.00breezing1/7● bullet
    9/30BEL5f1:03.60breezing7/10
    9/19BEL4f:48.80breezing14/96from gate
  8. 8God of FireJ. Rodriguez · M. MakerRodriguez · Maker?10-15%—Debut?

    Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?

    Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 1-for-27 on turf this meet (4%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: This Time For Sure 8-1, R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R5: Elysian Meadows 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, this race: Themistocles 15-1, R9: Ole Crazy Bone 3-1

    First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 11 works since Jul 28. Debut for this Fire At Will colt, whose dam is Day Dayenu.

    EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 13d back)
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    First start. By Fire at Will out of Day Dayenu (Into Mischief)
    Trainer M. Maker: 1st-time starters: 13% wins, 33% in the money (264 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 14% wins, 33% in the money (228 starts) · Maiden special weights: 13% wins, 40% in the money (817 starts)
    Jockey J. Rodriguez in turf: 24 wins from 262 (9%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/18BEL4f:52.00breezing71/77
    10/10BEL4f:50.40breezing67/87
    10/3BEL4f:51.00breezing68/74
    9/19BEL4f:51.00breezing68/96
    9/12BEL4f:51.00breezing156/195
  9. 9ArinatoJ. Lezcano · L. RiceLezcano · Rice?5-112%—Debut?

    Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?

    Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 6-for-82 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career ★ 5-for-22 on turf this meet (23%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R1: Mr Webster 6-1, R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R3: Army Gal 4-1, R4: Boomington 7-2 +6 more · Trainer R3: Army Gal 4-1, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R8: Mischief Mania 10-1, R10: Forecheck 7-2

    Before this first start, worked 3F in :36.40 on Oct 22, 3rd fastest of 10 that morning. First-time starter from a barn that wins 14% of the time with them (134 tried).

    EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
    WORKS Routine prep: 4 works in 30d, last 9d ago
    RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)

    Last three races

    First start. By Nyquist out of Curlin's Truth (Curlin)
    Trainer L. Rice: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 35% in the money (134 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 14% wins, 32% in the money (93 starts) · Maiden special weights: 15% wins, 45% in the money (302 starts)
    Jockey J. Lezcano in turf: 21 wins from 245 (9%)
    WorkTrkDistTimeHowRank
    10/22BEL3f:36.40breezing3/10
    10/15BEL4f:50.80breezing43/52
    10/8BEL4f:50.00breezing49/57
    10/1BEL4f:48.80breezing8/56
    9/16BEL3f:37.00breezing8/13
  10. 10Themistocles▼D. Davis · M. MakerDavis · MakerB16 5115-14%—16 51B▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 81

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 16 51

    ▼ Best fig 51 is 5+ under today's par 81
    Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 5-for-85 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 1-for-27 on turf this meet (4%)
    Also today · Jockey R3: Some Ride 8-1, R4: Unlock The Value 4-1, R7: Criteria 6-1, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, this race: God Of Fire 10-1, R9: Ole Crazy Bone 3-1

    Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Beaten 16 lengths for 8th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.

    EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/10BEL6f DsMdSpWt8th/8 -16L1610-1bBrsh;ins;eased late
    8/28SAR6½f DsMdSpWt8th/10 -7¾L5115-1bChased inside; tired
  11. 11Hyperborean Spirit▼C. Elliott · J. RyersonElliott · RyersonA73 644-114%—73 64A▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 73 64

    ▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81
    Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 0-for-35 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer James T Ryerson 27% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Obliterated 10-1, R2: Jadugar 6-1, R3: Next On Stage 6-1, R8: Go Irish 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Obliterated 10-1

    2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 11. Best recent figure is 73, well under the 81 par for this level.

    EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
    TROUBLED TRIP Ins-5w; rally; brsh; miss last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 6 days ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9BEL6½f TsMdSpWt2nd/11 -1L7323-1Ins-5w;rally;brsh;miss
    9/3SAR5½f TMSW9th/10 -4¾L6413-1Off step slow;ins turn

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Borago, was not in the official order (scratched or no finish recorded).

1st4Miracle MichaelWin$13.86Place$6.04Show$5.10Our #5
2nd7Mend The WayWin—Place$16.06Show$7.88Our #10
3rd1Lee`s Onthe LooseWin—Place—Show$5.24Our #6
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · TURF · infield1-turn · chute start

BELMONT PARK · RACE 6

OFFICIAL

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field
11 runners
Purse
$100,000
Post
1:58 PM ET
Pace
Tactical / Honest
Card model top pick
#3 · 24%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 66.74

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #3 Borago (a closer, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 69 · 75. Backup is #11 Hyperborean Spirit at 4-1. Use #9 Arinato in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Miracle Michael won (our #5) · top pick Borago ran unplaced

What didn't

  • ✗ Top pick off the board (unplaced)
  • ✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #5)
  • ✗ Our top 3 finished —, —, —

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1#3 BORAGO—
#2#11 HYPERBOREAN SPIRIT—
#3#9 ARINATO—
#4#2 GAYNOR—
#5#4 MIRACLE MICHAEL1st

Actual finish

1st#4 Miracle Michaelour #5
2nd#7 Mend the Wayour #10
3rd#1 Lee`s Onthe Looseour #6
At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #3 BORAGO (7-2) — our number agrees.
  • #3 BORAGO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.6% to their 17.2%).
  • #11 HYPERBOREAN SPIRIT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.0% to their 15.5%).
  • #9 ARINATO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.7% to their 12.9%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 GAYNOR (10-1) — our fair 8.4% is above the morning line's 7.1%; supported by: top barn (34%) + jockey (35%) at 10-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #4 Miracle Michael.

Lead
4Miracle Michael89
Press
none
Stalk
11Hyperborean Spirit78
Close
1Lee's Onthe Loose823Borago73
No style yet
10Themistocles855A Lot Of Gold702Gaynor6Unspoken7Mend The Way8God Of Fire9Arinato

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

4
Miracle Michael
89
11
Hyperborean Spirit
78

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

1
Lee's Onthe Loose
11
3
Borago
0
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