1Port in a Storm▼Ran 2ndA. Fresu · C. McGaugheyFresu · McGaugheyB69 725-1Fair 5-116%
—69 72B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 832Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 69 72
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 83Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-93 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Claude Iii McGaughey 3-for-16 on turf this meet (19%)Also today · Jockey R2: Gold Control 6-1, R3: L'Eclair 9-2, R4: She's Our Tiz 6-1, R5: Truman's Commander 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R9: Cugino 6-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYSComes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden special weight today.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/20 BEL 1m D MSW 7th/8 -6½L 69 7.3-1 2-3p trns;6p into lane 8/8 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 6th/9 -4½L 72 13-1 b 7w upper; outkicked 2Mapped▼Ran 7thM. Gutierrez · T. PletcherGutierrez · PletcherB7710-1Fair 15-17%
—77B▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 77
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83Jockey Mario Gutierrez 32% career · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 1-for-27 on turf this meet (4%)60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFinished 6th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at SAR, beaten 7¾ lengths. A 62-day gap since its last race.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/30 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 6th/8 -7¾L 77 9.9-1 Off slw;swerved 7p1/4 3Stars on the Water▼LSRan 3rdJ. Ruiz · A. KingsleyRuiz · KingsleyC72 5310-1Fair 12-18%
—72 53C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 83LSCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 72 53
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 83LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 2-for-4 on turf this meet · Trainer Archibald J Kingsley 0-for-1 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R4: Annagenda 15-1, R7: No Pressure 6-1, R9: Thundering 20-1, R10: Under The Moon 12-1 +1 moreA step up in company: maiden special weight before, maiden special weight today. Best recent figure is 72, well under the 83 par for this level.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 LRL 1m T MSW 2nd/8 -4L 72 21-1 Duel;drop back;re-bid 9/6 CNL 1m T rMdSpWt 9th/12 -9¾L 53 24-1 4w 1st;closer;fade str 4This Time For SureRan 9thJ. Rodriguez · K. DannerRodriguez · DannerA79 76 64▲▲+98-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best79 76 64A3Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Last 3 figs 79 76 64
Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Kelsey Danner 35% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, R4: Athena's Fury 4-1, R5: Elysian Meadows 10-1, R6: God Of Fire 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R7: Repentless 12-1Has moved up each time out, 64 to 76 to 79. Last out was 5th, 6¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.TROUBLED TRIP 7w upper; kept on last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.80 on Aug 20 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BEL 1 1/16 T MSW 5th/12 -6¼L 79 12-1 7w upper; kept on 9/3 KD 1m T MSW 3rd/11 -3L 76 23-1 Angld out;willingly 8/4 IND 7½f T MSW 3rd/10 -4½L 64 5.6-1 Bmp st;bid3p3/8;closed 5Loyal Prince▼Ran 8thV. Cheminaud · D. RyanCheminaud · RyanC69 51 75▲+5↕15-1Fair 30-14%
▲ Up +569 51 75 ↕C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–75 · Last 3 figs 69 51 75
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Derek S Ryan 33% career 0-for-6 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Fireinhereyes 4-1, R4: Velocity Girl 20-1, R5: B Thedonald 6-1, R7: Marchon 12-1 · Trainer R9: Thundering 20-1◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLENeeds to move up: the best of its last five is 75 against a 83 par. A longer trip: a mile last out, 1 1/8 miles today.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped; steady 1/16. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on Aug 7 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/7 DEL 1m T MSW 3rd/10 -2¼L 69 15-1 b Bumped; steady 1/16 9/19 BEL 6½f T MSW 11th/11 -19L 51 14-1 Chased 2p; trailed 8/15 MTH 1m T MSW 3rd/7 -1L 75 0.7-1 Step slow; 4-3w 6Mr Webster▼Ran 4thJ. Lezcano · W. MottLezcano · MottA786-1Fair 12-18%
—78A▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 78
▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 83Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 6-for-82 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career 0-for-32 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R3: Army Gal 4-1, R4: Boomington 7-2, R5: Master Freud 15-1 +6 more · Trainer R7: Commerce 10-12nd of 36 at 4F on Oct 22, in :48.80. 6th last time, 6½ lengths back, in a field of 12.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 9d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BEL 1 1/16 T MSW 6th/12 -6½L 78 34-1 b 8w upper; passed tired 7Road to RavelloRan 1stE. Zayas · D. DonkZayas · DonkB80 618-1Fair 10-19%
—80 61BCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 80 61
Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career 8-for-70 on turf this meet (11%) · Trainer David Donk 21% career 0-for-15 on turf this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R2: Outlaw Annie 7-2, R3: Roman Grace 7-2, R5: Vekinda 5-1, R6: Miracle Michael 8-1 +5 moreOwns the highest recent figure here at 80. Beaten 1¾ lengths for 3rd in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BEL 1 1/16 T MSW 3rd/12 -1¾L 80 46-1 Chased 3-4w; kept on 9/7 SAR 6f D MSW 9th/12 -12L 61 38-1 3w upper; tired 8Obliterated▼Ran 6thC. Elliott · J. RyersonElliott · RyersonC63 7610-1Fair 30-13%
—63 76C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 63 76
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83Jockey Christopher Elliott 35% career 0-for-35 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer James T Ryerson 27% career 0-for-11 on turf this meet (0%)Also today · Jockey R2: Jadugar 6-1, R3: Next On Stage 6-1, R6: Hyperborean Spirit 4-1, R8: Go Irish 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R6: Hyperborean Spirit 4-1Switches from dirt to turf. Worked 5F in 1:00.40 on Oct 25, 3rd of 10 at the distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 6d back)RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BEL 1 1/16 D MSW 7th/7 -20L 63 16-1 b Ins turn;no response 8/23 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 6th/7 -3¼L 76 18-1 b In tight early;ins-2p 9Broadcast▼Ran 5thS. Marin · M. ClementMarin · ClementA73 787-5Fair 8-538%
—73 78A▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 831Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 73 78
▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 83Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-76 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career 9-for-55 on turf this meet (16%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R4: Power Of Women 5-1, R5: Party In The Army 2-1, R6: Borago 7-2, R7: Lyneham 8-1 +4 more · Trainer R9: Carson's Run 10-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSDropped in well back early last out, 7th of 7 at the first call. Picks up 6 pounds from its last start.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 7d backRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 LRL 1 1/16 T LRLFutrtyB125k 2nd/7 by nk 73 2.4-1 Takn up 1/4;rail;sharp 8/23 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 4th/7 -1L 78 4.6-1 2-3p;ask6p1/4;chased
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: little early speed. Favors horses who can be close.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #9 Broadcast, finished 5th.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BELMONT PARK · RACE 1
OFFICIALMaiden Special Weight
Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.
Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.
● Track record at 1 1/8 Miles: 105.06
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #9 Broadcast (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-5). Recent figures: 73 · 78. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Port In A Storm at 5-1. Use #4 This Time For Sure in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · OUT
Road To Ravello won (our #4) · top pick Broadcast ran 5th
What didn't
- ✗ Top pick off the board (5th)
- ✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #4)
- ✗ Our top 3 finished 5th, 2nd, 9th
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #9 BROADCAST | 5th |
| #2 | #1 PORT IN A STORM | 2nd |
| #3 | #4 THIS TIME FOR SURE | 9th |
| #4 | #7 ROAD TO RAVELLO | 1st |
| #5 | #3 STARS ON THE WATER | 3rd |
Actual finish
| 1st | #7 Road to Ravello | our #4 |
| 2nd | #1 Port in a Storm | our #2 |
| 3rd | #3 Stars On the Water | our #5 |
| 4th | #6 Mr Webster | our #6 |
| 5th | #9 Broadcast | our #1 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 BROADCAST (7-5) — our number agrees.
- #9 BROADCAST — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (32.2% to their 32.5%).
- #1 PORT IN A STORM — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.4%, they've got 13.0%.
- #6 MR WEBSTER — our #6 number, about right at the windows (9.9% to their 11.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- #1 PORT IN A STORM — we make it 15.4%, the morning line works out to 13.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #3 Stars On The Water.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 1 & 2; PICK 3 ($1) (1-3)
EARLY PICK 5 (.50) (1-5)
BET OPTIONS
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