1Power of Women▲Ran 7thS. Marin · P. DeMarin · DeA81 73 92▼-35-1Fair 6-113%
▼ Down -381 73 92A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 81 73 92
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81Jockey Samuel Marin 33% career 10-for-76 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Paz Horacio De ★ 6-for-16 on turf this meet (38%), #2 of 50Also today · Jockey R1: Broadcast 7-5, R5: Party In The Army 2-1, R6: Borago 7-2, R7: Lyneham 8-1 +4 more · Trainer R2: Fireinhereyes 4-1, R5: B Thedonald 6-1Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Tops the field on speed figures, a 92 against 86 for the next best.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 BEL 1m D Alw s 4th/8 -½L 81 2.6-1 b L Press 2p; held off 8/21 SAR 1⅛m D fsFleetIndnB200k 6th/7 -13L 73 9.1-1 b Chased 2-3w; weakened 7/25 SAR 1m D fsAlw40000s Won/4 92 0.8-1 b L Buckled st; drew clear 2Morning Prayer★Ran 8thR. Maragh · T. MorleyMaragh · MorleyB71 86 79▼▼-10@trip 869-2Fair 6-115%
▼▼ Big drop -1071 86 79@trip 86B★ Best at the trip 863Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 86 79
★ Best at the trip 86Jockey Rajiv Maragh 27% career 0-for-16 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Thomas Morley 29% career 6-for-31 on turf this meet (19%)Also today · Jockey R3: Interstatelovesong 5-2, R6: Lee's Onthe Loose 6-1, R7: Outrunner 5-1, R9: A Bourbon For Toby 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R3: Interstatelovesong 5-2, R9: A Bourbon For Toby 15-1Figure of 86 on the record sits above the 81 par. Finished 6th in a 10-horse allowance race at BEL, beaten 3 lengths.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 8 days agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 BEL 1 1/16 T fsAlw105000n1x 6th/10 -3L 71 3.4-1 L Bmp btwn brk;ins2nd 8/19 SAR 1m T frNYSStLbrtB150k 2nd/8 -2L 86 5.8-1 5-6w upper; ran on 7/4 SAR 1 1/16 T fsMdSpWt 2nd/10 -2L 79 2.2-1 L Hit by foes crop 3/16 3BoomingtonRan 1stJ. Lezcano · G. WeaverLezcano · WeaverA75 86 68►@trip 857-2Fair 4-120%
► Steady75 86 68@trip 85A1Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 86 68
Jockey Jose Lezcano 33% career 6-for-82 on turf this meet (7%) · Trainer George Weaver 37% career 6-for-34 on turf this meet (18%) ★ hotAlso today · Jockey R1: Mr Webster 6-1, R2: Plenty Of Mischief 9-2, R3: Army Gal 4-1, R5: Master Freud 15-1 +6 more · Trainer R5: Vekinda 5-1, R7: Iron Palace 5-2, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1, R10: Extravaganzoo 3-1 +2 moreJky 0/15 from post 3Last out was 4th, 3¼ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse allowance race at BEL. An 86 in its last five clears the 81 par for this level.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoRECORD Jose Lezcano has never won from post 3 here (2 top-3 in 15 rides) · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 BEL 1 1/16 T fsAlw105000n1x 4th/10 -3¼L 75 9.1-1 L 2p turns;3p1/4;chased 9/3 SAR 1⅛m T fsAlw105000n1x 2nd/9 -2L 86 22-1 L Tracked ins; ran on 8/15 SAR 1m D fsAlw105000n1x 4th/6 -3½L 68 4.7-1 L 5w upper; weakened 4Athena's FuryRan 3rdJ. Rodriguez · A. GreenRodriguez · GreenB74 85 72►4-1Fair 5-116%
► Steady74 85 72B2Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 74 85 72
Jockey Jamie Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Amelia J Green 29% career 4-for-24 on turf this meet (17%)Also today · Jockey R1: This Time For Sure 8-1, R2: Mia's Warrior 8-1, R5: Elysian Meadows 10-1, R6: God Of Fire 10-1 +4 more · Trainer R6: Borago 7-2, R9: West Hollywood 15-1, R10: Saint Dymphna 12-1Jamie Rodriguez takes over from Dylan Davis in the saddle. Beaten 1 length for 5th in a 10-horse allowance race at BEL.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)RECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 BEL 1 1/16 T fsAlw105000n1x 5th/10 -1L 74 8.5-1 L Bmp brk;3p2nd;wknd 9/4 SAR 1 1/16 T fsAlw50000s Won/12 by 2½ 85 32-1 L Svd grnd;3p1/4;rally 6/11 BAQ 1 1/16 T fsMd50000 Won/12 by hd 72 4.2-1 L Out 2p;lead ins1/8;clr 5Miami StyleRan 4thP. Pena · J. OrsenoPena · OrsenoC71 73 79►@trip 6820-1Fair 50-12%
► Steady71 73 79@trip 68CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 68 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 73 79
Also today · Jockey R3: Mermaid Magic 15-1, R5: What's Up Bro 6-1, R6: Unspoken 12-1, R8: Schlomo 20-1 +1 more★ FASTEST WORKMoves up from optional claiming to allowance. Figures have slipped: 79, 73, 71 over its last three.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Sep 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D OC 35k 4th/8 -5½L 71 25-1 b L Stalked ins; no kick 8/15 SAR 1m D fsAlw105000n1x 3rd/6 -½L 73 14-1 b L Prompted 3w; wknd late 7/26 SAR 1 1/16 T fsAlw105000n1x 7th/10 -4½L 79 52-1 b L 2-3w uppr; no response 6She's Our TizRan 6thA. Fresu · M. GiangiulioFresu · GiangiulioB78 77 75►≡6-1Fair 8-110%
► Steady78 77 75 ≡BCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–79 · Last 3 figs 78 77 75
Jockey Antonio Fresu 34% career 12-for-93 on turf this meet (13%) · Trainer Michelle Giangiulio 25% career 0-for-1 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Port In A Storm 5-1, R2: Gold Control 6-1, R3: L'Eclair 9-2, R5: Truman's Commander 10-1 +4 more4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSStretches out from 7 furlongs to a mile. Class relief: allowance last time, allowance today.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD Bays win 16% here vs 13% for all horses (293 starts)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/18 BEL 7f T fsAlw157500n1x 5th/12 -3¾L 78 18-1 b L 3w pursuit; wknd late 7/25 SAR 5½f T fsAlw105000n1x 5th/12 -3½L 77 13-1 b L 2p turn;6p1/4;improved 6/28 BAQ 6f T fsAlw82000n1x 7th/12 -5L 75 15-1 L 4path turn;5p1/4;tired 7Annagenda▼Ran 5thJ. Ruiz · L. BartkowskiRuiz · BartkowskiC76 75 71▲+4≡15-1Fair 20-15%
▲ Up +4 · career best76 75 71 ≡C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 69–76 · Last 3 figs 76 75 71
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81Jockey Jorge Ruiz 31% career 2-for-4 on turf this meet · Trainer Lisa Bartkowski 18% career 0-for-6 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Stars On The Water 10-1, R7: No Pressure 6-1, R9: Thundering 20-1, R10: Under The Moon 12-1 +1 moreLASIX 1ST★ FASTEST WORKNew trainer: Paul Barrow had it last time, Lisa Bartkowski now. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 14; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/21 FL 6f D fsNiagara50k 5th/6 -4L 76 6.1-1 b Rail;blckd1/4;waited 8/24 FL 6f D Alw n2l 2nd/8 -7L 75 8.4-1 b L 2p3/8; rallied wide 7/27 FL 6f D Alw n2l 3rd/7 -4½L 71 12-1 b L Slgsh st;rail bid 8Unlock the ValueRan 2ndD. Davis · C. BrownDavis · BrownA75 73 85▼-44-1Fair 6-115%
▼ Down -475 73 85ACard model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 75 73 85
Jockey Dylan Davis 31% career 5-for-85 on turf this meet (6%) · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career ★ 18-for-68 on turf this meet (26%), #3 of 50Also today · Jockey R3: Some Ride 8-1, R6: Themistocles 15-1, R7: Criteria 6-1, R8: Bold Fortune 2-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Criteria 6-1, R9: Program Trading 2-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. 4th last time, 11 lengths back, in a field of 9.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 BEL 1m D fsAlw105000n1x 4th/9 -11L 75 2.1-1 L 3-4path turn;empty 8/21 SAR 1⅛m D fsFleetIndnB200k 4th/7 -16L 73 5.9-1 3-4w upper; weakened 7/30 SAR 1m D fsMdSpWt Won/6 85 4.4-1 L Brush st; geared down 9Velocity GirlRan 9thV. Cheminaud · M. MeyersCheminaud · MeyersC54 76 71▼▼-19↕20-1Fair 30-13%
▼▼ Big drop -1954 76 71 ↕CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -19 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–76 · Last 3 figs 54 76 71
Jockey Vincent Cheminaud 31% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Madison F Meyers 33% career 0-for-1 on turf this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Loyal Prince 15-1, R2: Fireinhereyes 4-1, R5: B Thedonald 6-1, R7: Marchon 12-1★ FASTEST WORKPosted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 21, in :48.80. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 21 (4F in :48.80), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 BEL 1m D fsAlw105000n1x 8th/9 -21L 54 29-1 b L Brshd gate;ins turn 8/14 CNL 1m D frAlw87900n1x 2nd/6 -4½L 76 15-1 b L 3p3/8;6p stretch;rally 7/19 CNL 6f D frAlw89100n1x 5th/7 -9L 71 16-1 b L 3-4p;6w1/4p;no rally
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #3 Boomington, won.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BELMONT PARK · RACE 4
OFFICIALState-Bred Allowance · $105,000 purse
Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
● Track record at 1 Mile: 91.23
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #3 Boomington (a closer, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 75 · 86 · 68. Backup is #4 Athena's Fury at 4-1. Use #2 Morning Prayer in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · WON
Top pick Boomington won
What worked
- ✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
- ✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)
- ✓ Our top 3 finished 1st, 3rd, 8th
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #3 BOOMINGTON | 1st |
| #2 | #4 ATHENA'S FURY | 3rd |
| #3 | #2 MORNING PRAYER | 8th |
| #4 | #8 UNLOCK THE VALUE | 2nd |
| #5 | #1 POWER OF WOMEN | 7th |
Actual finish
| 1st | #3 Boomington | our #1 |
| 2nd | #8 Unlock the Value | our #4 |
| 3rd | #4 Athena's Fury | our #2 |
| 4th | #5 Miami Style | our #9 |
| 5th | #7 Annagenda | our #7 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 BOOMINGTON (7-2) — our number agrees.
- #3 BOOMINGTON — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (18.6% to their 17.5%).
- #4 ATHENA'S FURY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (16.8% to their 15.7%).
- #8 UNLOCK THE VALUE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (15.5% to their 15.7%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #8 Unlock The Value; pressure from #1 Power Of Women, #5 Miami Style; the shape helps #2 Morning Prayer, #4 Athena's Fury, #5 Miami Style; and works against #1 Power Of Women, #8 Unlock The Value.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
EXACTA ($1); QUINELLA ($1); TRIFECTA (.50); SUPER (.10); DOUBLE ($1) 4 & 5
PICK 3 ($1) (4-6); PICK 4 (.50) (4-7)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta