| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/26 | CD | 6f D | Alw s | 4th/5 -½L | 88 | 4.7-1 | b L | Ins pair;dueld;yielded |
| 8/19 | SAR | 6f D | OC 30k | 7th/8 -11L | 61 | 0.7-1 | b L | Bmp hard brk;5-6p turn |
| 6/21 | CD | 6f D | Clm 20k v | Won/6 | 85 | 0.4-1 | b L | Ins pair-3p;kickd away |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23 | CD | 6f D | Clm 12k c | 5th/7 -3L | 75 | 1.8-1 | b L | Ins;chs 2-3p upr;nobid |
| 8/15 | ELP | 6½f D | Clm 50k | 5th/7 -3L | 84 | 6.3-1 | b L | Track 4-5p;flattnd out |
| 7/25 | ELP | 6½f D | Alw s | 3rd/5 -2½L | 85 | 5.7-1 | b L | Bump st;3-4p;willingly |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/8 | PEN | 6f D | Clm 16k | 3rd/6 -4L | 87 | 3.2-1 | b L | Gaining late 6 wide |
| 7/2 | PEN | 6f D | RHP 40-55 | 5th/8 -8½L | 78 | 5.8-1 | b L | Shift 4wd upper;churn |
| 6/12 | PEN | 6f D | Clm 25k b | 3rd/5 -2½L | 78 | 4.7-1 | b L | Bobbled;4w1/4;shift in |
1PowerizedRan 10thC. Montalvo · F. LucarelliMontalvo · LucarelliC66 61 72▼-7↕@trip 8520-1Fair 30-14%
▼ Down -766 61 72 ↕@trip 85CCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 61 72
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/30 IND 5f T Clm 12k 7th/9 -6½L 66 25-1 b L Bmp;stlk5p;faded str 8/28 BTP 6f D Alw b 4th/5 -5L 61 3.7-1 b L Showed speed;gave way 7/29 BTP 6f D Alw b 4th/5 -1½L 72 2.6-1 b L Pace;met bids;faded 2El Michoacano▼Ran 6thA. Beschizza · L. WigginsBeschizza · WigginsC67 62 75►@trip 7530-1Fair 99-11%
► Steady67 62 75@trip 75C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 62 75
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84Jockey Adam Beschizza 33% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Lon Wiggins 14% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meetJky 4/50 from post 2Finished 10th in a 10-horse allowance race at IND, beaten 12 lengths. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 22 (4F in :46.80), 1 work in 30dRECORD Adam Beschizza from post 2 here: 4 wins, 15 top-3 in 50 rides · 6% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 IND 1 1/16 D sAlw40200n2x 10th/10 -12L 67 61-1 b L Settled early;no bid 7/30 IND 1m D sClm10000bc Won/6 62 1.6-1 b L Reard;bid;much the bst 6/17 IND 6f D sClm25000n3l 5th/6 -4L 75 9.7-1 b L Stalked4p;no late bid 3League of Legends▼Ran 3rdF. Arrieta · R. MorseArrieta · MorseB71 72 82▼-6@trip 8415-1Fair 20-14%
▼ Down -671 72 82@trip 84B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 72 82
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesJockey Francisco Arrieta 32% career 6-for-35 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Randy L Morse 26% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Just Plain Eugene 15-1, R4: Good Hand 4-1, R6: Eleonora 12-1 · Trainer R1: Down Time 2-1, R4: Good Hand 4-1, R5: Executor 5-1CLASS DROP2/4 board hereTrending the wrong way on speed, 82 to 72 to 71. Best recent figure of 82 sits right around the 84 par.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 2 (5F in 1:00.40), 1 work in 30dRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Francisco Arrieta from post 3 here: 5 wins, 29 top-3 in 56 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/23 CD 6f D Clm 12k 6th/7 -6¼L 71 11-1 L Lag 3p;7p upr;no impct 7/12 ELP 7f D Clm 25k 7th/8 -12L 72 7.0-1 L Slow early; lagged 2p 6/19 CD 6½f D Clm 20k b Won/6 by 4½ 82 2.6-1 L Lag 2p;rallied;up late 4Optimal Courage▼▼Ran 8thG. Rodriguez · H. MartinezRodriguez · MartinezB79 60 64▲▲+12@trip 758-1Fair 12-18%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best79 60 64@trip 75B▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 75 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 60 64
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTRaises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $12,500 claiming now. Winner of a 5-horse $5,000 claiming race at BTP last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)SHARP LAST OUT Bump st; duel; drew away last out, and it did it the right way.WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.20 on Aug 1 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/1 BTP 5½f D Clm 5k b Won/5 79 1.0-1 b L Bump st;duel;drew away 9/15 IND 6f D Clm 5k b 7th/8 -6L 60 8.7-1 b L Press;chck1/4;gave way 8/24 IND 6f D OC 10k 5th/6 -10L 64 27-1 b L Trailed;no late bid 5Stargazzers Dream▼Ran 2ndM. Fernandez · M. LovellFernandez · LovellC75 71 73►≡@trip 7530-1Fair 50-12%
► Steady75 71 73 ≡@trip 75C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–77 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 71 73
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Michelle Lovell 25% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R2: Shanett 12-1, R3: Chief Ball 50-1, R4: Mambo Man 15-1, R5: Bagg O Time 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Anglican 15-1A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, $12,500 claiming today. 3rd of 21 at 3F on Jul 1, in :36.60.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 9d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 BTP 6f D Clm 7k b 2nd/8 -3L 75 6.6-1 b L Settld;rail bid;game 9/10 BTP 6f D Clm 5k n2x Won/4 by nk 71 1.2-1 b L 3-w turn;6-w uppr;drvg 8/20 IND 5½f D Clm 5k b 7th/8 -8¾L 73 25-1 b L 4path;no late bid 6Gardiner▲★Ran 4thY. Ortiz Jr. · J. SharpOrtiz Jr. · SharpA88 61 85▲▲+10↕@trip 986-5Fair 6-548%
▲▲ Big jump +1088 61 85 ↕@trip 98A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 84★ Best at the trip 981Card model 48% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–89 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 61 85
▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 84★ Best at the trip 98Jockey Yomar Jr Ortiz 37% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 6-for-32 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS7/9 board hereTops the field on speed figures, an 89 against 87 for the next best. Has won 3 of 5 going today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d agoRECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 CD 6f D Alw s 4th/5 -½L 88 4.7-1 b L Ins pair;dueld;yielded 8/19 SAR 6f D OC 30k 7th/8 -11L 61 0.7-1 b L Bmp hard brk;5-6p turn 6/21 CD 6f D Clm 20k v Won/6 85 0.4-1 b L Ins pair-3p;kickd away 7Brother Rice▲Ran 1stR. Bejarano · M. KordenbrockBejarano · KordenbrockA87 78 78▲▲+8@trip 875-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best87 78 78@trip 87A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 843Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 87 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 78 78
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 84Jockey R Bejarano 34% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Matt Kordenbrock 18% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet★ FASTEST WORKNew trainer: Bruce M Kravets had it last time, Matt Kordenbrock now. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 33d agoRECORD R Bejarano from post 7 here: 4 wins, 18 top-3 in 65 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 PEN 6f D Clm 16k 3rd/6 -4L 87 3.2-1 b L Gaining late 6 wide 7/2 PEN 6f D RHP 40-55 5th/8 -8½L 78 5.8-1 b L Shift 4wd upper;churn 6/12 PEN 6f D Clm 25k b 3rd/5 -2½L 78 4.7-1 b L Bobbled;4w1/4;shift in 8Social HourRan 7thE. Esquivel · G. GarciaEsquivel · GarciaA75 84 85▼-5@trip 914-1Fair 6-114%
▼ Down -575 84 85@trip 91A2Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 84 85
Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hotCLASS DROP0/3 board hereGenaro Garcia takes over the training from David Jacobson. Figures have slipped: 85, 84, 75 over its last three.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 13 days agoRECORD Not on the board in 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/23 CD 6f D Clm 12k c 5th/7 -3L 75 1.8-1 b L Ins;chs 2-3p upr;nobid 8/15 ELP 6½f D Clm 50k 5th/7 -3L 84 6.3-1 b L Track 4-5p;flattnd out 7/25 ELP 6½f D Alw s 3rd/5 -2½L 85 5.7-1 b L Bump st;3-4p;willingly 9Decatur StreetRan 9thL. Fuenmayor · C. Galindo-TorresFuenmayor · Galindo-TorresB77 72 80►@trip 878-1Fair 15-17%
► Steady77 72 80@trip 87BCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 72 80
Jockey Luis Fuenmayor 20% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Climaco Galindo-Torres 23% careerWorked 4F in :47.40 on Jul 1, 2nd of 20 at the distance. Drops from $16,000 claiming to $12,500 claiming.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 123d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 KEE 6f D Clm 16k 4th/7 -4L 77 9.2-1 b L Chs 2wbtw;stay;mss shw 9/30 IND 5f T Clm 12k 6th/9 -4½L 72 21-1 b L Awk;stalk3p;yield str 9/11 IND 6f D Clm 5k b 2nd/6 80 1.9-1 b L Clear early;caught 10One Cool DudeRan 5thJ. Loveberry · C. BanksLoveberry · BanksC60 76 82▼▼-17@trip 8215-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -1760 76 82@trip 82CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 76 82
Jockey Jareth Loveberry 36% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Chris Banks 22% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK0/3 board here185 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 23, in :49.20.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 18d back)RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 4/30 OP 6f D Clm 12k b 11th/11 -7¾L 60 5.0-1 b L In range ins; weakened 3/19 OP 6f D Clm 12k b 5th/9 -4½L 76 7.9-1 b L Tracked 4p; yielded 3/7 OP 6f D Clm 12k b 2nd/11 82 8.0-1 b L 2-4p;cue3/16;edged out
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #6 Gardiner, finished 4th.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 7
OFFICIALClaiming $12,500
Claiming $12,500, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.55
The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #6 Gardiner (early speed, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 88 · 61 · 85. Backup is #8 Social Hour at 4-1. Use #7 Brother Rice in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON
Brother Rice (our #3) won · top pick Gardiner ran 4th
What worked
- ✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
What didn't
- ✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
- ✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 7th, 1st
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #6 GARDINER | 4th |
| #2 | #8 SOCIAL HOUR | 7th |
| #3 | #7 BROTHER RICE | 1st |
| #4 | #4 OPTIMAL COURAGE | 8th |
| #5 | #9 DECATUR STREET | 9th |
Actual finish
| 1st | #7 Brother Rice | our #3 |
| 2nd | #5 Stargazzers Dream | our #9 |
| 3rd | #3 League of Legends | our #6 |
| 4th | #6 Gardiner | our #1 |
| 5th | #10 One Cool Dude | our #7 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 GARDINER (6-5) — our number agrees.
- #6 GARDINER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (38.3% to their 35.5%).
- #8 SOCIAL HOUR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.3% to their 15.6%).
- #7 BROTHER RICE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.7% to their 13.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Gardiner; pressure from #1 Powerized, #4 Optimal Courage; the shape helps #2 El Michoacano, #3 League Of Legends; and works against #1 Powerized, #4 Optimal Courage, #6 Gardiner.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
DAILY DOUBLE / EXACTA / TRIFECTA / SUPERFECTA / PICK 3 (RACES 7-8-9)
SUPER HI-5 / ODD VS EVEN
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta