Pick sheet
Race 73:55 PM Clm 12500
6F · Dirt · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Gardiner, is 48% to win (morning line implies 35%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
Top pick #6 Gardiner ML 6-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +10 ★ Best at 6f dirt: 98 ↕ Up and down 61–89 ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 84
Jockey Y. Ortiz Jr. · Trainer J. Sharp · KEE 10: 4-3-1 · Dist 5: 3-0-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 98 · 36 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
9/26CD6f DAlw s4th/5 -½L884.7-1b LIns pair;dueld;yielded
8/19SAR6f DOC 30k7th/8 -11L610.7-1b LBmp hard brk;5-6p turn
6/21CD6f DClm 20k vWon/6850.4-1b LIns pair-3p;kickd away
Case: Last out 4th/5 -½L in the Alw20000s at CD. Last Brisnet figures 88-61-85. Best at today's distance 98. 3-for-5 at the distance. 4-for-10 at Churchill Downs. J. Sharp / Y. Ortiz Jr..
Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.
Contender #8 Social Hour ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #2 ▼ Down -5
Jockey E. Esquivel · Trainer G. Garcia · KEE 3: 0-0-0 · Dist 13: 3-3-3 · best fig at 6f dirt 91 · 39 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
9/23CD6f DClm 12k c5th/7 -3L751.8-1b LIns;chs 2-3p upr;nobid
8/15ELP6½f DClm 50k5th/7 -3L846.3-1b LTrack 4-5p;flattnd out
7/25ELP6½f DAlw s3rd/5 -2½L855.7-1b LBump st;3-4p;willingly
Case: Last out 5th/7 -3L in the Clm12500c at CD. Last Brisnet figures 75-84-85. Best at today's distance 91. 3-for-13 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Churchill Downs. G. Garcia / E. Esquivel.
Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.
Use #7 Brother Rice ML 5-1 Fair 10-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 84 Last out 3rd in the Clm16000 at PEN. Last Brisnet figures 87-78-78. Best at today's distance 87. 4-for-16 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Churchill Downs. M. Kordenbrock / R. Bejarano. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.
Jockey R. Bejarano · Trainer M. Kordenbrock · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · Dist 16: 4-1-5 · best fig at 6f dirt 87 · 24 days off
DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
10/8PEN6f DClm 16k3rd/6 -4L873.2-1b LGaining late 6 wide
7/2PEN6f DRHP 40-555th/8 -8½L785.8-1b LShift 4wd upper;churn
6/12PEN6f DClm 25k b3rd/5 -2½L784.7-1b LBobbled;4w1/4;shift in
Narrowing the field: A #6, #7, #8 · B #3, #4, #9 · C #1, #2, #5, #10
Angles: #2 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #3 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #4 Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #4 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #5 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84 · #6 Last fig 88 at/above par 84 · #7 Last fig 87 at/above par 84

R7 Churchill Downs · Claiming $12,500

3:55 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $45,000 · 10 runners3:55 PM · 6f Dirt · 10 runners

Official $45K · Claiming $12,500

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1PowerizedRan 10thC. Montalvo · F. LucarelliMontalvo · LucarelliC66 61 72▼-7↕@trip 8520-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -766 61 72 ↕@trip 85C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 61 72

    Jockey C Montalvo 30% career · Trainer Frank Lucarelli 32% career

    Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30IND5f TClm 12k7th/9 -6½L6625-1b LBmp;stlk5p;faded str
    8/28BTP6f DAlw b4th/5 -5L613.7-1b LShowed speed;gave way
    7/29BTP6f DAlw b4th/5 -1½L722.6-1b LPace;met bids;faded
  2. 2El Michoacano▼Ran 6thA. Beschizza · L. WigginsBeschizza · WigginsC67 62 75►@trip 7530-1Fair 99-11%► Steady67 62 75@trip 75C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84

    Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 62 75

    ▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84
    Jockey Adam Beschizza 33% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Lon Wiggins 14% career 1-for-2 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R6: White Star Line 20-1
    Jky 4/50 from post 2

    Finished 10th in a 10-horse allowance race at IND, beaten 12 lengths. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs.

    PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 22 (4F in :46.80), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD Adam Beschizza from post 2 here: 4 wins, 15 top-3 in 50 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8IND1 1/16 DsAlw40200n2x10th/10 -12L6761-1b LSettled early;no bid
    7/30IND1m DsClm10000bcWon/6621.6-1b LReard;bid;much the bst
    6/17IND6f DsClm25000n3l5th/6 -4L759.7-1b LStalked4p;no late bid
  3. 3League of Legends▼Ran 3rdF. Arrieta · R. MorseArrieta · MorseB71 72 82▼-6@trip 8415-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -671 72 82@trip 84B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 72 82

    ▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Francisco Arrieta 32% career 6-for-35 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer Randy L Morse 26% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R1: Just Plain Eugene 15-1, R4: Good Hand 4-1, R6: Eleonora 12-1 · Trainer R1: Down Time 2-1, R4: Good Hand 4-1, R5: Executor 5-1
    CLASS DROP2/4 board here

    Trending the wrong way on speed, 82 to 72 to 71. Best recent figure of 82 sits right around the 84 par.

    PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 2 (5F in 1:00.40), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 4 starts here
    RECORD Francisco Arrieta from post 3 here: 5 wins, 29 top-3 in 56 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/23CD6f DClm 12k6th/7 -6¼L7111-1LLag 3p;7p upr;no impct
    7/12ELP7f DClm 25k7th/8 -12L727.0-1LSlow early; lagged 2p
    6/19CD6½f DClm 20k bWon/6 by 4½822.6-1LLag 2p;rallied;up late
  4. 4Optimal Courage▼▼Ran 8thG. Rodriguez · H. MartinezRodriguez · MartinezB79 60 64▲▲+12@trip 758-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best79 60 64@trip 75B▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

    Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 75 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 60 64

    ▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
    Jockey Guillermo Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Heribert Martinez 32% career ★ hot
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Raises its level, $5,000 claiming last time and $12,500 claiming now. Winner of a 5-horse $5,000 claiming race at BTP last time.

    PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
    SHARP LAST OUT Bump st; duel; drew away last out, and it did it the right way.
    WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.20 on Aug 1 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/1BTP5½f DClm 5k bWon/5791.0-1b LBump st;duel;drew away
    9/15IND6f DClm 5k b7th/8 -6L608.7-1b LPress;chck1/4;gave way
    8/24IND6f DOC 10k5th/6 -10L6427-1b LTrailed;no late bid
  5. 5Stargazzers Dream▼Ran 2ndM. Fernandez · M. LovellFernandez · LovellC75 71 73►≡@trip 7530-1Fair 50-12%► Steady75 71 73 ≡@trip 75C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84

    Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 71–77 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 71 73

    ▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 84
    Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Michelle Lovell 25% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R2: Shanett 12-1, R3: Chief Ball 50-1, R4: Mambo Man 15-1, R5: Bagg O Time 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Anglican 15-1

    A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, $12,500 claiming today. 3rd of 21 at 3F on Jul 1, in :36.60.

    EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 9d back)

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9BTP6f DClm 7k b2nd/8 -3L756.6-1b LSettld;rail bid;game
    9/10BTP6f DClm 5k n2xWon/4 by nk711.2-1b L3-w turn;6-w uppr;drvg
    8/20IND5½f DClm 5k b7th/8 -8¾L7325-1b L4path;no late bid
  6. 6Gardiner▲★Ran 4thY. Ortiz Jr. · J. SharpOrtiz Jr. · SharpA88 61 85▲▲+10↕@trip 986-5Fair 6-548%▲▲ Big jump +1088 61 85 ↕@trip 98A▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 84★ Best at the trip 981

    Card model 48% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 61–89 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 61 85

    ▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 84★ Best at the trip 98
    Jockey Yomar Jr Ortiz 37% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Joe Sharp 40% career 6-for-32 on dirt this meet (19%) ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R4: Mo Reviews 5-1
    3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS7/9 board here

    Tops the field on speed figures, an 89 against 87 for the next best. Has won 3 of 5 going today's distance.

    PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago
    RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/26CD6f DAlw s4th/5 -½L884.7-1b LIns pair;dueld;yielded
    8/19SAR6f DOC 30k7th/8 -11L610.7-1b LBmp hard brk;5-6p turn
    6/21CD6f DClm 20k vWon/6850.4-1b LIns pair-3p;kickd away
  7. 7Brother Rice▲Ran 1stR. Bejarano · M. KordenbrockBejarano · KordenbrockA87 78 78▲▲+8@trip 875-1Fair 10-19%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best87 78 78@trip 87A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 843

    Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 87 (10 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 78 78

    ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 84
    Jockey R Bejarano 34% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Matt Kordenbrock 18% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R9: Foolin 9-2
    ★ FASTEST WORK

    New trainer: Bruce M Kravets had it last time, Matt Kordenbrock now. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 33d ago
    RECORD R Bejarano from post 7 here: 4 wins, 18 top-3 in 65 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8PEN6f DClm 16k3rd/6 -4L873.2-1b LGaining late 6 wide
    7/2PEN6f DRHP 40-555th/8 -8½L785.8-1b LShift 4wd upper;churn
    6/12PEN6f DClm 25k b3rd/5 -2½L784.7-1b LBobbled;4w1/4;shift in
  8. 8Social HourRan 7thE. Esquivel · G. GarciaEsquivel · GarciaA75 84 85▼-5@trip 914-1Fair 6-114%▼ Down -575 84 85@trip 91A2

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 91 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 84 85

    Jockey Emmanuel Esquivel 36% career 3-for-13 on dirt this meet (23%) · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet ★ hot
    Also today · Jockey R4: Power Of Vino 5-1 · Trainer R3: Take Charge Beach 8-1, R4: Army Run 20-1
    CLASS DROP0/3 board here

    Genaro Garcia takes over the training from David Jacobson. Figures have slipped: 85, 84, 75 over its last three.

    EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 13 days ago
    RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/23CD6f DClm 12k c5th/7 -3L751.8-1b LIns;chs 2-3p upr;nobid
    8/15ELP6½f DClm 50k5th/7 -3L846.3-1b LTrack 4-5p;flattnd out
    7/25ELP6½f DAlw s3rd/5 -2½L855.7-1b LBump st;3-4p;willingly
  9. 9Decatur StreetRan 9thL. Fuenmayor · C. Galindo-TorresFuenmayor · Galindo-TorresB77 72 80►@trip 878-1Fair 15-17%► Steady77 72 80@trip 87B

    Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 87 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 72 80

    Jockey Luis Fuenmayor 20% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Climaco Galindo-Torres 23% career

    Worked 4F in :47.40 on Jul 1, 2nd of 20 at the distance. Drops from $16,000 claiming to $12,500 claiming.

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 123d ago

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/14KEE6f DClm 16k4th/7 -4L779.2-1b LChs 2wbtw;stay;mss shw
    9/30IND5f TClm 12k6th/9 -4½L7221-1b LAwk;stalk3p;yield str
    9/11IND6f DClm 5k b2nd/6801.9-1b LClear early;caught
  10. 10One Cool DudeRan 5thJ. Loveberry · C. BanksLoveberry · BanksC60 76 82▼▼-17@trip 8215-1Fair 20-14%▼▼ Big drop -1760 76 82@trip 82C

    Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 76 82

    Jockey Jareth Loveberry 36% career 1-for-8 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Chris Banks 22% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet
    Also today · Jockey R6: Eenymeanymightymo 10-1
    180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK0/3 board here

    185 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Sep 23, in :49.20.

    PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)
    WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 18d back)
    RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    4/30OP6f DClm 12k b11th/11 -7¾L605.0-1b LIn range ins; weakened
    3/19OP6f DClm 12k b5th/9 -4½L767.9-1b LTracked 4p; yielded
    3/7OP6f DClm 12k b2nd/11828.0-1b L2-4p;cue3/16;edged out

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #6 Gardiner, finished 4th.

1st7Brother RiceWin$8.38Place$5.16Show$3.56Our #3
2nd5Stargazzers DreamWin—Place$23.44Show$9.86Our #9
3rd3League Of LegendsWin—Place—Show$5.94Our #6
4th6GardinerOur #1
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 7

OFFICIAL

Claiming $12,500

Field
10 runners
Purse
$45,000
Post
3:55 PM ET
Pace
Speed Duel
Card model top pick
#6 · 48%

Claiming $12,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.55

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Gardiner (early speed, M/L 6-5). Recent figures: 88 · 61 · 85. Backup is #8 Social Hour at 4-1. Use #7 Brother Rice in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Brother Rice (our #3) won · top pick Gardiner ran 4th

What worked

  • ✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)

What didn't

  • ✗ Top pick off the board (4th)
  • ✗ Our top 3 finished 4th, 7th, 1st

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1#6 GARDINER4th
#2#8 SOCIAL HOUR7th
#3#7 BROTHER RICE1st
#4#4 OPTIMAL COURAGE8th
#5#9 DECATUR STREET9th

Actual finish

1st#7 Brother Riceour #3
2nd#5 Stargazzers Dreamour #9
3rd#3 League of Legendsour #6
4th#6 Gardinerour #1
5th#10 One Cool Dudeour #7
At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #6 GARDINER (6-5) — our number agrees.
  • #6 GARDINER — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (38.3% to their 35.5%).
  • #8 SOCIAL HOUR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.3% to their 15.6%).
  • #7 BROTHER RICE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.7% to their 13.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Gardiner; pressure from #1 Powerized, #4 Optimal Courage; the shape helps #2 El Michoacano, #3 League Of Legends; and works against #1 Powerized, #4 Optimal Courage, #6 Gardiner.

Lead
6Gardiner931Powerized914Optimal Courage919Decatur Street9110One Cool Dude87
Press
8Social Hour84
Stalk
7Brother Rice905Stargazzers Dream74
Close
3League Of Legends722El Michoacano61

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

6
Gardiner
93
1
Powerized
91
4
Optimal Courage
91
9
Decatur Street
91
7
Brother Rice
90
10
One Cool Dude
87
8
Social Hour
84
5
Stargazzers Dream
74

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

2
El Michoacano
19
3
League Of Legends
14
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