Pick sheet

Race 94:55 PM Md Sp Wt

5F · Turf · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Hazy Horizon, is 34% to win (morning line implies 22%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #3 Hazy Horizon ML 5-2 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig

Jockey T. Gaffalione · Trainer W. Ward · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · best fig at 5f turf 80 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	CD	5½f D	MSW	2nd/7	84	2.4-1		3p btw;bid 1/4;dueled
5/21	CD	5f T	MSW	3rd/10 -7L	80	4.4-1	b	Toss hd st;ran on well

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at CD. Last Brisnet figures 84-80. Best at today's distance 80. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Churchill Downs. W. Ward / T. Gaffalione.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #7 Twillo ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2

Jockey L. Saez · Trainer B. Lynch · Debut

First start. By Twirling Candy out of Willa (Will Take Charge)

Trainer B. Lynch: 1st-time starters: 10% wins, 38% in the money (160 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 8% wins, 35% in the money (142 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 46% in the money (396 starts)

Jockey L. Saez in turf: 44 wins from 335 (13%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	KEE	4f	:47.60	breezing	4/85	from gate
10/16	KEE	5f	1:03.80	breezing	19/24
10/9	KEE	5f	1:02.60	breezing	20/30
10/3	KEE	4f	:47.80	breezing	6/60
9/26	ELP	4f	:48.00	handily	2/33	from gate

Case: First career start. B. Lynch / L. Saez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #6 Foolin ML 9-2 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +4 · career best ▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 85 Last out 5th/7 -7L in the MdSpWt at BEL. Last Brisnet figures 79-79-72. 0-for-1 at the distance. C. Hartman / R. Bejarano. Knock: Never raced at Churchill Downs. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Jockey R. Bejarano · Trainer C. Hartman · Dist 1: 0-0-1 · 32 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/30	BEL	6f D	MSW	5th/7 -7L	79	3.3-1	b	Ins-3p turn;4path1/4
8/30	SAR	5½f T	MSW	3rd/6 -3½L	79	1.6-1	b	Ins trn;2p1/4;mvd out
7/25	SAR	6f D	MSW	3rd/8 -1L	72	3.2-1		Ins;led;no match top2

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #6 · ? #1, #2, #5, #7, #8, #9 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #4 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 85 · #4 Lone speed on early pace · #6 Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 85

R9 Churchill Downs · Maiden Special Weight

4:55 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $120,000 · 9 runners4:55 PM · 5f Turf · 9 runners

Official $120K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Now He's GoneRan 6thJ. Ortiz · M. MakerOrtiz · Maker?6-1Fair 10-110%—Debut?
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%), #3 of 14 · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R6: Elida's Angel 9-2, R8: Glory Me 4-1 · Trainer R3: Fire Marshal 10-1
Debut for this Yaupon colt, whose dam is And She's Gone. First-time starter from a barn that wins 13% of the time with them (264 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 5d ago
RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 1 here: 35 wins, 79 top-3 in 133 rides · 20% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Yaupon out of And She's Gone (War Front)
Trainer M. Maker: 1st-time starters: 13% wins, 33% in the money (264 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 14% wins, 33% in the money (228 starts) · Maiden special weights: 13% wins, 40% in the money (817 starts)
Jockey J. Ortiz in turf: 109 wins from 485 (22%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/27 TP 3f :38.80 breezing 4/6
10/20 TP 4f :48.80 breezing 18/45
10/13 TP 4f :48.60 breezing 2/23 from gate
10/6 TP 5f 1:00.40 breezing 3/16
9/29 TP 5f 1:00.20 breezing 2/15
2YogeshRan 9thL. MacHado · R. WalshMacHado · Walsh?15-1Fair 30-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Luan Machado 35% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Ryan D Walsh 36% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Clarke 5-1, R6: Cowgirl Paradise 15-1
Before this first start, worked 4F in :48.60 on Oct 1, 2nd fastest of 18 that morning. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 23.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago
RECORD Luan Machado from post 2 here: 7 wins, 29 top-3 in 80 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Yaupon out of Cactus Copy (Cactus Ridge)
Trainer R. Walsh: 1st-time starters: 30% wins, 50% in the money (10 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 29% wins, 57% in the money (7 starts) · Maiden special weights: 18% wins, 41% in the money (22 starts)
Jockey L. MacHado in turf: 10 wins from 125 (8%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 TP 4f :48.00 breezing 6/61 from gate
10/15 TP 4f :50.80 breezing 18/23
10/8 TP 4f :48.40 breezing 4/24 from gate
10/1 TP 4f :48.60 breezing 2/18
9/22 TP 4f :49.00 breezing 31/72
3Hazy HorizonRan 2ndT. Gaffalione · W. WardGaffalione · WardA84 80@trip 805-2Fair 2-134%—84 80@trip 80A1
Card model 34% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 80
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 5-for-21 on turf this meet (24%), #1 of 14 · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Jackies Einor 5-1, R3: Fire Marshal 10-1, R5: Culprit 2-1, R6: The Look 9-5 +1 more
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 84, with 79 next best.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 12 (5F in 1:00.00), 2 works in 30d
RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 3 here: 31 wins, 62 top-3 in 128 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 CD 5½f D MSW 2nd/7 84 2.4-1 3p btw;bid 1/4;dueled
5/21 CD 5f T MSW 3rd/10 -7L 80 4.4-1 b Toss hd st;ran on well
4Timelapse▼▲Ran 3rdJ. Torres · J. DivitoTorres · DivitoA738-1Fair 15-16%—73A▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 85▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 73
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 85▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Jaime A Torres 32% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer James P Divito 0-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: Greers Ferry 3-1, R6: Valedora 15-1, R8: Feasible 20-1
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. A 73 is the high figure lately, short of the 85 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d ago
RECORD Jaime A Torres from post 4 here: 7 wins, 21 top-3 in 75 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 CD 5½f D MSW 5th/7 -2¼L 73 13-1 b 2p;headd btw3/16;faded
5Kiss the MedalRan 7thE. Morales · G. FoleyMorales · Foley?15-1Fair 30-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Edgar Morales 32% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Greg Foley 30% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R3: Take Charge Beach 8-1, R4: Army Run 20-1, R5: Surfin' M 8-1
Debut for a trainer who is 6% with first-timers, over 80 starts. Unraced so far; the pedigree is Olympiad out of Oaks Lily.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 14d ago
RECORD Edgar Morales from post 5 here: 10 wins, 30 top-3 in 77 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Olympiad out of Oaks Lily (Badge of Silver)
Trainer G. Foley: 1st-time starters: 6% wins, 28% in the money (80 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 6% wins, 26% in the money (62 starts) · Maiden special weights: 14% wins, 38% in the money (209 starts)
Jockey E. Morales in turf: 5 wins from 123 (4%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/18 CD 4f :49.00 breezing 30/81
10/4 CD 4f :49.00 breezing 43/125
9/17 CD 4f :48.80 breezing 9/28 from gate
8/26 CD 4f :49.20 breezing 22/47
8/15 CD 4f :49.00 breezing 70/153
6Foolin▼Ran 4thR. Bejarano · C. HartmanBejarano · HartmanA79 79 72▲+49-2Fair 7-112%▲ Up +4 · career best79 79 72A▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 853
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · Last 3 figs 79 79 72
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey R Bejarano 34% career 1-for-5 on turf this meet · Trainer Chris Hartman 33% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R7: Brother Rice 5-1 · Trainer R1: Midnight Commander 4-1
Chris Hartman takes over the training from Todd A Pletcher. Beaten 7 lengths for 5th in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 9 days ago
RECORD R Bejarano from post 6 here: 10 wins, 26 top-3 in 65 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/30 BEL 6f D MSW 5th/7 -7L 79 3.3-1 b Ins-3p turn;4path1/4
8/30 SAR 5½f T MSW 3rd/6 -3½L 79 1.6-1 b Ins trn;2p1/4;mvd out
7/25 SAR 6f D MSW 3rd/8 -1L 72 3.2-1 Ins;led;no match top2
7TwilloRan 1stL. Saez · B. LynchSaez · Lynch?7-2Fair 4-119%—Debut?2
Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 2-for-21 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Brian A Lynch 36% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Menkaure 2-1, R3: Love A Warrior 4-5, R6: Indomiknow 6-1, R8: That's A Benjamin 10-1 · Trainer R3: Captivate 9-2
Unraced, but it has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 23). With 12 works on record, the first on Aug 7.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 9d back
RECORD Luis Saez from post 7 here: 22 wins, 47 top-3 in 126 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Twirling Candy out of Willa (Will Take Charge)
Trainer B. Lynch: 1st-time starters: 10% wins, 38% in the money (160 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 8% wins, 35% in the money (142 starts) · Maiden special weights: 17% wins, 46% in the money (396 starts)
Jockey L. Saez in turf: 44 wins from 335 (13%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 KEE 4f :47.60 breezing 4/85 from gate
10/16 KEE 5f 1:03.80 breezing 19/24
10/9 KEE 5f 1:02.60 breezing 20/30
10/3 KEE 4f :47.80 breezing 6/60
9/26 ELP 4f :48.00 handily 2/33 from gate
8NaxianRan 8thW. Rodriguez · M. NiheiRodriguez · Nihei?20-1Fair 30-13%—Debut?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Walter A Rodriguez 34% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%) · Trainer Michelle Nihei 21% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Faraz 30-1, R5: Final Thoughts 6-1
Before this first start, it was the fastest 3F work of its morning on Sep 29 (:36.40). First career start, by Olympiad out of Valentia Island.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 10d ago
RECORD Walter A Rodriguez from post 8 here: 1 win, 2 top-3 in 19 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Olympiad out of Valentia Island (Pioneerof the Nile)
Trainer M. Nihei: 1st-time starters: 4% wins, 15% in the money (26 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 5% wins, 18% in the money (22 starts) · Maiden special weights: 11% wins, 23% in the money (57 starts)
Jockey W. Rodriguez in turf: 2 wins from 49 (4%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/22 KEE 4f :50.40 breezing 16/19
10/6 FAI 4f :50.40 breezing 3/4
9/29 FAI 3f :36.40 breezing 1/6 ● bullet from gate
8/24 FAI 3f :38.20 breezing 1/1 ● bullet
7/31 FAI 4f :49.00 breezing 4/17 from gate
9MckeonvilleRan 5thA. Concepcion · K. DannerConcepcion · Danner?5-1Fair 10-110%—Debut?
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Axel Concepcion 33% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%), #2 of 14 · Trainer Kelsey Danner 35% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Concrete Overlay 6-1, R6: Gimme Some Lovin 7-2, R8: In Total Awe 3-1 · Trainer R4: Concrete Overlay 6-1, R6: Gimme Some Lovin 7-2
No race form yet, but it had the morning's best 3F work on Oct 26, in :35.20. This barn has 149 first-time starters on record and wins 9% of them.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 26 (3F in :35.20), 4 works in 30d
RECORD Axel Concepcion from post 9 here: 1 win, 8 top-3 in 32 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Olympiad out of My Lady Emma (Lord Nelson)
Trainer K. Danner: 1st-time starters: 9% wins, 32% in the money (149 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 10% wins, 34% in the money (126 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 34% in the money (398 starts)
Jockey A. Concepcion in turf: 30 wins from 271 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/26 CD 3f :35.20 breezing 1/5 ● bullet
10/21 CD 4f :48.20 breezing 7/31 from gate
10/14 CD 4f :46.80 breezing 1/54 ● bullet
10/7 TP 4f :47.00 breezing 3/20 from gate
9/29 TP 4f :49.40 breezing 29/54

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/27	TP	3f	:38.80	breezing	4/6
10/20	TP	4f	:48.80	breezing	18/45
10/13	TP	4f	:48.60	breezing	2/23	from gate
10/6	TP	5f	1:00.40	breezing	3/16
9/29	TP	5f	1:00.20	breezing	2/15

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	TP	4f	:48.00	breezing	6/61	from gate
10/15	TP	4f	:50.80	breezing	18/23
10/8	TP	4f	:48.40	breezing	4/24	from gate
10/1	TP	4f	:48.60	breezing	2/18
9/22	TP	4f	:49.00	breezing	31/72

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	CD	5½f D	MSW	5th/7 -2¼L	73	13-1	b	2p;headd btw3/16;faded

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/18	CD	4f	:49.00	breezing	30/81
10/4	CD	4f	:49.00	breezing	43/125
9/17	CD	4f	:48.80	breezing	9/28	from gate
8/26	CD	4f	:49.20	breezing	22/47
8/15	CD	4f	:49.00	breezing	70/153

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/22	KEE	4f	:50.40	breezing	16/19
10/6	FAI	4f	:50.40	breezing	3/4
9/29	FAI	3f	:36.40	breezing	1/6	● bullet from gate
8/24	FAI	3f	:38.20	breezing	1/1	● bullet
7/31	FAI	4f	:49.00	breezing	4/17	from gate

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/26	CD	3f	:35.20	breezing	1/5	● bullet
10/21	CD	4f	:48.20	breezing	7/31	from gate
10/14	CD	4f	:46.80	breezing	1/54	● bullet
10/7	TP	4f	:47.00	breezing	3/20	from gate
9/29	TP	4f	:49.40	breezing	29/54

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Hazy Horizon, finished 2nd.

1st7TwilloWin$12.38Place$4.48Show$3.58Our #2

2nd3Hazy HorizonWin—Place$2.66Show$2.26Our #1

3rd4TimelapseWin—Place—Show$5.52Our #6

4th6FoolinOur #3

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 9

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

9 runners

Purse

$120,000

Post

4:55 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#3 · 34%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 55.01

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #3 Hazy Horizon (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 84 · 80. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Twillo at 7-2. Use #6 Foolin in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Hazy Horizon ran 2nd · Twillo won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 1st, 4th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 HAZY HORIZON	2nd
#2	#7 TWILLO	1st
#3	#6 FOOLIN	4th
#4	#9 MCKEONVILLE	5th
#5	#1 NOW HE'S GONE	6th

Actual finish

1st	#7 Twillo	our #2
2nd	#3 Hazy Horizon	our #1
3rd	#4 Timelapse	our #6
4th	#6 Foolin	our #3
5th	#9 McKeonville	our #4

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 HAZY HORIZON (5-2) — our number agrees.
#3 HAZY HORIZON — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.8% to their 22.3%).
#7 TWILLO — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.3% to their 17.3%).
#6 FOOLIN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.4% to their 14.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Timelapse; the shape helps #3 Hazy Horizon, #6 Foolin; and works against #1 Now He's Gone, #2 Yogesh, #4 Timelapse.

Lead

4Timelapse97

Press

none

Stalk

3Hazy Horizon936Foolin88

none

No style yet

1Now He's Gone2Yogesh5Kiss The Medal7Twillo8Naxian9McKeonville

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Timelapse

Hazy Horizon

Foolin

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Hazy Horizon

Timelapse

Foolin

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