Our top three by win chance, with the morning line beside each horse. Confidence = our top-rated horse's win chance: Strong 35%+, Medium 25-35%, Wide open under 25%. ▲/▼ angles, ★ best figure at the trip, LS = longshot read (8-1+ on the line, model rates it higher). Tap a race number for the full field and a name for the horse's page. These are notes from the past performances, not proven to beat the odds; the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top pick. Analysis only.
● Live race intelligence · code CD
Churchill Downs
Sunday, November 1, 2026.
Races
9
on the card
Feature
R8
Allowance · $127,000 purse · $127K
First post
1:00 PM
ET · race 1
Runners
86
avg field 10
● Track conditions today
Churchill Downs — today's signals
Surface read
±0.87s MODERATE
Surface moves a moderate amount day to day — we apply the daily variant so figures stay comparable across the meet.
day-to-day swing · 122 race-days sampled
Weather
56° Scattered Rain Showers
Wet/off-track risk — turf may come off, dirt plays tiring. Fast-track form discounts; wet-track & mud pedigree weight up.
50% precip next 6h
Carryover pool
None today
No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.
Do the model's percentages hold up?
Mostly
Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.
checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06
TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST
Best post #3 (12%) · Rail helps
Even by post — inside 11% / outside 8%. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 20,344 starts.
Where the model is most sure
Three highest model win %.
The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.
Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg,
or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all.
This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.
Pick 5Races 1–5
R1#2 Soap NoteTop pick
R2#3 MenkaureTop pick
R3#8 Love A WarriorTop pick
R4#5 Windsock · #2 Good Hand · #7 Mo ReviewsClose: top 3
R5#6 Culprit · #7 Greers FerryClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 2–5
R2#3 MenkaureTop pick
R3#8 Love A WarriorTop pick
R4#5 Windsock · #2 Good Hand · #7 Mo ReviewsClose: top 3
R5#6 Culprit · #7 Greers FerryClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 3–7
R3#8 Love A WarriorTop pick
R4#5 Windsock · #2 Good Hand · #7 Mo ReviewsClose: top 3
R5#6 Culprit · #7 Greers FerryClose: top 2
R6#11 The Look · #4 Elida's Angel · #1 IndomiknowClose: top 3
R7#6 Gardiner · #8 Social Hour · #7 Brother RiceClose: top 3
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 5–9
R5#6 Culprit · #7 Greers FerryClose: top 2
R6#11 The Look · #4 Elida's Angel · #1 IndomiknowClose: top 3
R7#6 Gardiner · #8 Social Hour · #7 Brother RiceClose: top 3
R8#7 Kaykay · #5 In Total Awe · #2 Ready CometeClose: top 3
R9#3 Hazy HorizonTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 6–9
R6#11 The Look · #4 Elida's Angel · #1 IndomiknowClose: top 3
R7#6 Gardiner · #8 Social Hour · #7 Brother RiceClose: top 3
R8#7 Kaykay · #5 In Total Awe · #2 Ready CometeClose: top 3
R9#3 Hazy HorizonTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Today's races
Race-by-race with archetype.
Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.
OFFICIAL · Won by #7 Twillo · our top pick ran 2nd
M/L
5-2
Model 34% · agrees with the favourite
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For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.