Pick sheet

Race 11:00 PM Md 100000

5F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Soap Note, is 23% to win (morning line implies 20%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #2 Soap Note ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey M. Gutierrez · Trainer D. Stewart · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	KEE	6f D	MSW	5th/10 -3½L	69	6.3-1		Ins winner-2p; faded
9/16	CD	6f D	MSW	5th/12 -2L	69	13-1		Jostled st; bid; empty

Case: Last out 5th/10 -3½L in the MdSpWt at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 69-69. 0-for-1 at Churchill Downs. D. Stewart / M. Gutierrez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #7 Down Time ML 2-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2

Jockey A. Cedillo · Trainer R. Morse · Debut

First start. By Drain the Clock out of Charlies Love (Indian Charlie)

Trainer R. Morse: 1st-time starters: 8% wins, 23% in the money (64 starts) · 2-year-olds: 10% wins, 37% in the money (68 starts)

Jockey A. Cedillo in sprints: 11 wins from 163 (7%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	CD	4f	:48.80	breezing	27/80	from gate
10/14	CD	4f	:48.60	breezing	11/54	from gate
10/4	CD	4f	:47.80	breezing	7/125
9/27	CD	4f	:47.80	breezing	11/104
9/12	CD	4f	:48.60	breezing	30/122

Case: First career start. R. Morse / A. Cedillo.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #4 Midnight Commander ML 4-1 Fair 6-1 Model #3 First career start. C. Hartman / D. Sheehy. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey D. Sheehy · Trainer C. Hartman · Debut

First start. By Street Strategy out of Megyns Gold (Zensational)

Trainer C. Hartman: 1st-time starters: 10% wins, 31% in the money (94 starts) · 2-year-olds: 6% wins, 29% in the money (158 starts)

Jockey D. Sheehy in sprints: 23 wins from 232 (10%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	CD	4f	:50.00	breezing	133/183	from gate
10/7	CD	3f	:36.00	breezing	1/4	● bullet from gate
9/30	CD	5f	1:02.60	breezing	7/8
9/23	ELP	5f	1:01.80	breezing	4/4
9/16	ELP	4f	:50.00	breezing	15/25

Longshot #6 Ultimit Warrior ML 8-1 Fair 7-1 Model #5 ▼ Best fig 28 is 5+ under today's par 82 ▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey C. Emigh · Trainer B. Vanden · 64 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	KD	6½f T	JuvSprnt Stk	11th/11 -19L	28	52-1	b	Stopped;eased stretch

Case: Last out 11th/11 -19L in the JuvSprntL750k at KD. Last Brisnet figures 28. B. Vanden / C. Emigh.

Knock: Off 64 days. Never raced at Churchill Downs.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #5, #6 · ? #1, #3, #4, #7 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #2 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 82 · #5 Best fig 35 is 5+ under today's par 82 · #6 Best fig 28 is 5+ under today's par 82 · #6 Lone speed on early pace

R1 Churchill Downs · Maiden Claiming $100,000

1:00 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Dirt · $72,000 · 7 runners1:00 PM · 5f Dirt · 7 runners

Official $72K · Maiden Claiming $100,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1GlenadeanRan 5thK. Asmussen · R. MoquettAsmussen · Moquett?6-1Fair 8-111%—Debut?
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Keith J Asmussen 34% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Ronald E Moquett 31% career 0-for-12 on dirt this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Ashes And Diamonds 3-1, R4: Captain Call 12-1, R8: Feminism 12-1
Jky 11/53 from post 1
Debut for this Cairo Prince filly, whose dam is Maxine's Tap Room. This barn has 124 first-time starters on record and wins 5% of them.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 9 days ago
RECORD Keith J Asmussen from post 1 here: 11 wins, 22 top-3 in 53 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Cairo Prince out of Maxine's Tap Room (Bourbon Courage)
Trainer R. Moquett: 1st-time starters: 5% wins, 19% in the money (124 starts) · 2-year-olds: 8% wins, 25% in the money (133 starts)
Jockey K. Asmussen in sprints: 35 wins from 283 (12%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 CD 4f :49.20 breezing 42/64
10/14 CD 4f :50.80 breezing 43/54 from gate
10/4 CD 4f :51.00 breezing 110/125
9/28 ELP 4f :50.60 breezing 17/24
9/14 ELP 4f :50.80 breezing 22/27
2Soap Note▼Ran 2ndM. Gutierrez · D. StewartGutierrez · StewartA69 693-1Fair 7-224%—69 69A▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 821
Card model 24% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 69 69
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Mario Gutierrez 32% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Dallas Stewart 29% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Epic Road 20-1 · Trainer R3: Kalapaki Point 15-1, R8: Ready Comete 7-2
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 69, with 35 next best. Last out was 5th, 3½ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at KEE.
PACE HELPS The only real early speed in the race, so the lead is there if it wants it. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 11 days ago
RECORD Mario Gutierrez from post 2 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 20 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 KEE 6f D MSW 5th/10 -3½L 69 6.3-1 Ins winner-2p; faded
9/16 CD 6f D MSW 5th/12 -2L 69 13-1 Jostled st; bid; empty
3Just Plain EugeneRan 4thF. Arrieta · J. HancockArrieta · Hancock?15-1Fair 20-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Francisco Arrieta 32% career 6-for-35 on dirt this meet (17%) · Trainer John A Hancock 22% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Good Hand 4-1, R6: Eleonora 12-1, R7: League Of Legends 15-1 · Trainer this race: Jackies Einor 5-1
First-time starter from a barn that wins 4% of the time with them (48 tried). Worked 5F in 1:02.40 on Sep 6, 2nd fastest of 10 that morning.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 8d back
RECORD Francisco Arrieta from post 3 here: 5 wins, 29 top-3 in 56 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Caracaro out of No Pictures Please (Congrats)
Trainer J. Hancock: 1st-time starters: 4% wins, 25% in the money (48 starts) · 2-year-olds: 7% wins, 25% in the money (124 starts)
Jockey F. Arrieta in sprints: 64 wins from 343 (19%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 ELP 4f :48.60 handily 9/29 from gate
10/18 ELP 5f 1:02.00 breezing 7/11
10/10 ELP 4f :49.00 handily 9/18 from gate
9/27 ELP 5f 1:02.80 breezing 10/10
9/6 ELP 5f 1:02.40 breezing 2/10
4Midnight CommanderRan 7thD. Sheehy · C. HartmanSheehy · Hartman?4-1Fair 6-114%—Debut?3
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Danny Sheehy 22% career 3-for-19 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Chris Hartman 33% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)
Also today · Jockey R5: Anglican 15-1 · Trainer R9: Foolin 9-2
Jky 0/18 from post 4
In the morning works, the Oct 7 work, 3F in :36.00, was the fastest at that distance that morning. There is gate work on its record, the latest on Oct 24.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 7; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Danny Sheehy has never won from post 4 here (9 top-3 in 18 rides) · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Street Strategy out of Megyns Gold (Zensational)
Trainer C. Hartman: 1st-time starters: 10% wins, 31% in the money (94 starts) · 2-year-olds: 6% wins, 29% in the money (158 starts)
Jockey D. Sheehy in sprints: 23 wins from 232 (10%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 CD 4f :50.00 breezing 133/183 from gate
10/7 CD 3f :36.00 breezing 1/4 ● bullet from gate
9/30 CD 5f 1:02.60 breezing 7/8
9/23 ELP 5f 1:01.80 breezing 4/4
9/16 ELP 4f :50.00 breezing 15/25
5Jackies Einor▼Ran 6thT. Gaffalione · J. HancockGaffalione · HancockA355-1Fair 7-113%—35A▼ Best fig 35 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 35
▼ Best fig 35 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 11-for-54 on dirt this meet (20%) · Trainer John A Hancock 22% career
Also today · Jockey R3: Fire Marshal 10-1, R5: Culprit 2-1, R6: The Look 9-5, R8: Kaykay 2-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Just Plain Eugene 15-1
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Back after 120 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $100,000.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 8d back
RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 5 here: 25 wins, 66 top-3 in 143 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/4 ELP 5½f D MSW 8th/8 -8½L 35 31-1 b 2wd btwn; faded 1/4
6Ultimit Warrior▼▲LSRan 1stC. Emigh · B. VandenEmigh · VandenA288-1Fair 7-112%—28A▼ Best fig 28 is 5+ under today's par 82▲ Lone speed on early paceLS
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 28
▼ Best fig 28 is 5+ under today's par 82▲ Lone speed on early paceLS
Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 12% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey C A Emigh 33% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Berg Brittany A Vanden 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Trainer R2: Menkaure 2-1, R2: Shanett 12-1
60D LAYOFF
Switches from turf to dirt. Runs for $72,000 today after a $750,000 race last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 12 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/29 KD 6½f T JuvSprnt Stk 11th/11 -19L 28 52-1 b Stopped;eased stretch
7Down TimeRan 3rdA. Cedillo · R. MorseCedillo · Morse?2-1Fair 7-222%—Debut?2
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey Abel Cedillo 28% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Randy L Morse 26% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Ashkenazi 10-1, R5: Impavido 20-1 · Trainer R4: Good Hand 4-1, R5: Executor 5-1, R7: League Of Legends 15-1
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Drain The Clock out of Charlies Love. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 25).
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Abel Cedillo from post 7 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 26 rides · 6% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Drain the Clock out of Charlies Love (Indian Charlie)
Trainer R. Morse: 1st-time starters: 8% wins, 23% in the money (64 starts) · 2-year-olds: 10% wins, 37% in the money (68 starts)
Jockey A. Cedillo in sprints: 11 wins from 163 (7%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 CD 4f :48.80 breezing 27/80 from gate
10/14 CD 4f :48.60 breezing 11/54 from gate
10/4 CD 4f :47.80 breezing 7/125
9/27 CD 4f :47.80 breezing 11/104
9/12 CD 4f :48.60 breezing 30/122

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	CD	4f	:49.20	breezing	42/64
10/14	CD	4f	:50.80	breezing	43/54	from gate
10/4	CD	4f	:51.00	breezing	110/125
9/28	ELP	4f	:50.60	breezing	17/24
9/14	ELP	4f	:50.80	breezing	22/27

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	ELP	4f	:48.60	handily	9/29	from gate
10/18	ELP	5f	1:02.00	breezing	7/11
10/10	ELP	4f	:49.00	handily	9/18	from gate
9/27	ELP	5f	1:02.80	breezing	10/10
9/6	ELP	5f	1:02.40	breezing	2/10

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/4	ELP	5½f D	MSW	8th/8 -8½L	35	31-1	b	2wd btwn; faded 1/4

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #2 Soap Note, finished 2nd.

1st6Ultimit WarriorWin$9.98Place$4.28Show$3.08Our #5

2nd2Soap NoteWin—Place$2.86Show$2.22Our #1

3rd7Down TimeWin—Place—Show$3.00Our #2

4th3Just Plain EugeneOur #7

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 1

OFFICIAL

Maiden Claiming $100,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$72,000

Post

1:00 PM ET

Pace

Wire-To-Wire Likely

Card model top pick

#2 · 24%

Maiden Claiming, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 56.41

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Soap Note (early speed, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 69 · 69. Backup is #7 Down Time at 2-1. Use #4 Midnight Commander in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Soap Note ran 2nd · Ultimit Warrior won (our #5)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 3rd, 7th

What didn't

✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #5)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#2 SOAP NOTE	2nd
#2	#7 DOWN TIME	3rd
#3	#4 MIDNIGHT COMMANDER	7th
#4	#5 JACKIES EINOR	6th
#5	#6 ULTIMIT WARRIOR	1st

Actual finish

1st	#6 Ultimit Warrior	our #5
2nd	#2 Soap Note	our #1
3rd	#7 Down Time	our #2
4th	#3 Just Plain Eugene	our #7
5th	#1 Glenadean	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 DOWN TIME (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#7 DOWN TIME — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.1% to their 26.3%).
#2 SOAP NOTE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.0% to their 19.7%).
#4 MIDNIGHT COMMANDER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (15.2% to their 15.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Wire-To-Wire Likely. One speed type with no pressure. Lone speed often dictates fractions and walks the dog.

Likely leader: #2 Soap Note; the shape helps #2 Soap Note; and works against #1 Glenadean, #3 Just Plain Eugene, #4 Midnight Commander.

Lead

2Soap Note94

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

6Ultimit Warrior985Jackies Einor761Glenadean3Just Plain Eugene4Midnight Commander7Down Time

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Soap Note

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Soap Note

Ultimit Warrior

Jackies Einor

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