Pick sheet

Race 63:26 PM Md Sp WtLate Pick 4 starts

1 1/8 Mi · Turf · 16 entered. Our model's top pick, The Look, is 28% to win (morning line implies 25%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #11 The Look ML 9-5 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81

Jockey T. Gaffalione · Trainer B. Walsh · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	CD	1 1/16 T	MSW	3rd/8 -3L	81	8.3-1	L	Squeezd st;5w upr;game

Case: Last out 3rd in the fMdSpWt at CD. Last Brisnet figures 81. 0-for-1 at Churchill Downs. B. Walsh / T. Gaffalione.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1 1/16).

Contender #4 Elida's Angel ML 9-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -8

Jockey J. Ortiz · Trainer C. Devaux · KEE 2: 0-0-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1⅛m turf 79 · 63 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	KD	1½m T	MSW	4th/9 -4½L	73	3.2-1	L	Shifted out;not enough
6/14	CD	1½m T	MSW	4th/9 -5½L	84	1.4-1	L	Ins;closer 5p1/4;flatn
5/10	CD	1⅛m T	MSW	4th/11 -5½L	79	5.6-1	L	Hop/bmp st;6w1/4;outkk

Case: Last out 4th/9 -4½L in the fMdSpWt at KD. Last Brisnet figures 73-84-79. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Churchill Downs. C. Devaux / J. Ortiz.

Knock: Off 63 days. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Use #1 Indomiknow ML 6-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 Last out 6th/6 -16L in the fMdSpWt at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 16-79. L. Robson / L. Saez. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1 1/16). Never raced at Churchill Downs.

Jockey L. Saez · Trainer L. Robson · 17 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	KEE	1 1/16 D	MSW	6th/6 -16L	16	4.8-1		2w;falter btw 2nd;easd
8/30	SAR	1m T	MSW	4th/10 -4½L	79	1.8-1	L	3w pursuit; kept on
4/12	LEP	1m T	MSW	4th/15	—	40-1

Longshot #7 Eenymeanymightymo ML 10-1 Fair 15-1 Model #7 ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best ▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 81

Jockey J. Loveberry · Trainer N. Pessin · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 1: 0-0-0 · best fig at 1⅛m turf 70 · 55 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	KD	1 5/16 T	MSW	4th/10 -3L	91	6.5-1	b L	4-3w;ang out;need kick
7/26	SAR	1⅜m T	MSW	3rd/10 -2L	80	7.6-1	b L	Clip heels early;bid1F
6/14	CD	1½m T	MSW	2nd/9 -4L	87	9.1-1	b L	Trk ins;4p1/4;held plc

Case: Last out 4th/10 -3L in the fMdSpWt at KD. Last Brisnet figures 91-80-87. Best at today's distance 70. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Churchill Downs. N. Pessin / J. Loveberry.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #4, #11, #15 · B #2, #7, #13 · C #1, #3, #5, #6, #8, #9, #10, #16 · ? #12, #14 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #5 Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #5 Lone speed on early pace · #6 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #7 Last fig 91 at/above par 81 · #8 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #10 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81 · #11 Last fig 81 at/above par 81 · #13 Last fig 92 at/above par 81 · #15 Last fig 93 at/above par 81 · #16 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81

R6 Churchill Downs · Maiden Special Weight

3:26 PM ET · 1 1/8 Miles Turf · $120,000 · 11 runners (5 out)3:26 PM · 1 1/8m Turf · 11 runners (5 out)

Official $120K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1IndomiknowRan 10thL. Saez · L. RobsonSaez · RobsonC16 796-1Fair 7-112%—16 79C3
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 16 79
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 2-for-21 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Lauren Robson 25% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Menkaure 2-1, R3: Love A Warrior 4-5, R8: That's A Benjamin 10-1, R9: Twillo 7-2
Switches from dirt to turf. Beaten 16 lengths for 6th in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at KEE.
PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.
TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (2w; falter btw 2nd; easd), and the figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 24d ago
RECORD Luis Saez from post 1 here: 19 wins, 60 top-3 in 152 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 KEE 1 1/16 D MSW 6th/6 -16L 16 4.8-1 2w;falter btw 2nd;easd
8/30 SAR 1m T MSW 4th/10 -4½L 79 1.8-1 L 3w pursuit; kept on
4/12 LEP 1m T MSW 4th/15 — 40-1
2TwinkleeRan 11thJ. Leparoux · W. CatalanoLeparoux · CatalanoB75 71 87▼-315-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -375 71 87B
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Last 3 figs 75 71 87
Jockey Julien R Leparoux 30% career · Trainer Wayne M Catalano 38% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Trainer this race: White Star Line 20-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Has run 87 against a 81 par for the class. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 6d ago)
RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here
RECORD Julien R Leparoux from post 2 here: 3 wins, 15 top-3 in 45 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 CD 1 1/16 D MSW 4th/6 -4½L 75 5.4-1 L Track ins;chased;faded
7/10 ELP 1m D MSW 7th/9 -7L 71 2.8-1 L Prompt ins;stalk;faded
5/29 CD 1⅛m D MSW 3rd/9 -2½L 87 16-1 L Ins;ran on willingly
3EleonoraF. Arrieta · E. KenneallyArrieta · KenneallyC50 7812-1<1%—50 78C
Card model <1% · Our #13 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 50 78
Jockey Francisco Arrieta 32% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Eddie Kenneally 35% career 0-for-5 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Just Plain Eugene 15-1, R4: Good Hand 4-1, R7: League Of Legends 15-1
Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden special weight is an easier level on paper. Finished 12th in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at KD, beaten 10 lengths.
PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 12d ago
RECORD Francisco Arrieta from post 3 here: 5 wins, 29 top-3 in 56 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 KD 1m T MSW 12th/12 -10L 50 8.9-1 L Cont pace;tired
7/18 ELP 1 1/16 T MSW 3rd/7 -4½L 78 11-1 Off slw;2w;bmpd1/4&1/8

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	CD	1 1/16 D	MSW	4th/6 -4½L	75	5.4-1	L	Track ins;chased;faded
7/10	ELP	1m D	MSW	7th/9 -7L	71	2.8-1	L	Prompt ins;stalk;faded
5/29	CD	1⅛m D	MSW	3rd/9 -2½L	87	16-1	L	Ins;ran on willingly

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	KD	1m T	MSW	12th/12 -10L	50	8.9-1	L	Cont pace;tired
7/18	ELP	1 1/16 T	MSW	3rd/7 -4½L	78	11-1		Off slw;2w;bmpd1/4&1/8

4Elida's AngelRan 3rdJ. Ortiz · C. DevauxOrtiz · DevauxA73 84 79▼▼-8@trip 799-2Fair 4-119%▼▼ Big drop -873 84 79@trip 79A2

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 84 79

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career 3-for-19 on turf this meet (16%), #3 of 14 · Trainer Cherie Devaux 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R8: Glory Me 4-1, R9: Now He's Gone 6-1 · Trainer R8: Glory Me 4-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Shortens up to 1 1/8 miles after going 1 1/2 miles. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden special weight today.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD Jose L Ortiz from post 4 here: 21 wins, 59 top-3 in 119 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/30	KD	1½m T	MSW	4th/9 -4½L	73	3.2-1	L	Shifted out;not enough
6/14	CD	1½m T	MSW	4th/9 -5½L	84	1.4-1	L	Ins;closer 5p1/4;flatn
5/10	CD	1⅛m T	MSW	4th/11 -5½L	79	5.6-1	L	Hop/bmp st;6w1/4;outkk

5Thirteen Roses▼▲Ran 8thB. Curtis · S. Joseph Jr.Curtis · Joseph Jr.C42 5630-1Fair 50-12%—42 56C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 81▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 42 56
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 81▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Ben Curtis 36% career 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph 0-for-1 on turf this meet
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Returns from a 101-day break. Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP 3f in :35.80 on Sep 27 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
RECORD Ben Curtis from post 5 here: 2 wins, 14 top-3 in 34 rides · 8% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/23 CNL 7f D MSW 9th/9 -13L 42 8.0-1 L Pressed 3 wide;stopped
5/16 CD 6f D MSW 10th/11 -13L 56 32-1 L 4p; no factor
6White Star Line▼Ran 9thA. Beschizza · W. CatalanoBeschizza · CatalanoC70 6620-1Fair 50-12%—70 66C▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 70 66
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Adam Beschizza 33% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Wayne M Catalano 38% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R7: El Michoacano 30-1 · Trainer this race: Twinklee 15-1
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Last out was 5th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at KEE.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 6d ago
RECORD Adam Beschizza from post 6 here: 3 wins, 14 top-3 in 42 rides · 6% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/15 KEE 1 1/16 D MSW 5th/5 -12L 70 8.7-1 L 3p; done early
9/9 KD 6½f T MSW 7th/11 -4¼L 66 9.6-1 L Off slw;ins;need punch

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
7/23	CNL	7f D	MSW	9th/9 -13L	42	8.0-1	L	Pressed 3 wide;stopped
5/16	CD	6f D	MSW	10th/11 -13L	56	32-1	L	4p; no factor

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	KEE	1 1/16 D	MSW	5th/5 -12L	70	8.7-1	L	3p; done early
9/9	KD	6½f T	MSW	7th/11 -4¼L	66	9.6-1	L	Off slw;ins;need punch

7Eenymeanymightymo▲LSRan 1stJ. Loveberry · N. PessinLoveberry · PessinB91 80 87▲▲+9@trip 7010-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best91 80 87@trip 70B▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 81LS

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 80 87

▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 81LS

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Jareth Loveberry 36% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Neil L Pessin 16% career

Also today · Jockey R7: One Cool Dude 15-1

Still looking for the first win after 8 starts. Cuts back from 1 5/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 10d ago)

RECORD Jareth Loveberry from post 7 here: 3 wins, 4 top-3 in 20 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	KD	1 5/16 T	MSW	4th/10 -3L	91	6.5-1	b L	4-3w;ang out;need kick
7/26	SAR	1⅜m T	MSW	3rd/10 -2L	80	7.6-1	b L	Clip heels early;bid1F
6/14	CD	1½m T	MSW	2nd/9 -4L	87	9.1-1	b L	Trk ins;4p1/4;held plc

8Got What I Got▼D. Cannon · J. HilesCannon · HilesC74 58 36▲▲+29↕20-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +29 · career best74 58 36 ↕C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model <1% · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +29 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–74 · Last 3 figs 74 58 36
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey Declan Cannon 32% career · Trainer Jeff A Hiles 32% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Jky 0/22 from post 8
Has moved up each time out, 36 to 58 to 74. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 16 days ago
RECORD Declan Cannon has never won from post 8 here (3 top-3 in 22 rides) · 6% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 CD 1 1/16 D MSW 5th/6 -8½L 74 42-1 L 2w;4w3/4;no impact
5/23 CD 1m D MSW 4th/6 -9L 58 34-1 b L 4-3p;5p1/4;moved up
10/2 IND 1m D MSW 7th/8 -14L 36 21-1 b Vied btw;fade far turn
9Cowgirl ParadiseL. MacHado · B. ColebrookMacHado · ColebrookC7715-1<1%—77C
Card model <1% · Our #12 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 77
Jockey Luan Machado 35% career 1-for-11 on turf this meet (9%) · Trainer Ben Colebrook 30% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Clarke 5-1, R9: Yogesh 15-1
3rd of 18 at 4F on Aug 29, in :48.40. Drops from maiden special weight to maiden special weight.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
TROUBLED TRIP Angld 4-5w; not enough last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 26 days ago
RECORD Luan Machado from post 9 here: 4 wins, 17 top-3 in 55 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 KD 1m T MSW 4th/12 -2¼L 77 15-1 b L Angld 4-5w;not enough
10Copycat▼Ran 6thB. Hernandez Jr. · B. WalshHernandez Jr. · WalshC63 738-1Fair 12-17%—63 73C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 63 73
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81
Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career 5-for-12 on turf this meet (42%), #1 of 6 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Diagram 7-2, R3: Kalapaki Point 15-1, R5: Executor 5-1, R8: Ready Comete 7-2 · Trainer this race: The Look 9-5
180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
287 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. A 73 is the high figure lately, short of the 81 par.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 23; 4 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
1/18 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 5th/11 63 2.5-1 L 2wd; led; weakened
11/29 CD -8½f T MSW 3rd/12 -4¼L 73 3.6-1 2wbtw;5p upr;edged shw
11The Look▲Ran 7thT. Gaffalione · B. WalshGaffalione · WalshA819-5Fair 5-228%—81A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 811
Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 81
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 81
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 5-for-21 on turf this meet (24%), #1 of 14 · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career 5-for-12 on turf this meet (42%), #1 of 6 ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Jackies Einor 5-1, R3: Fire Marshal 10-1, R5: Culprit 2-1, R8: Kaykay 2-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Copycat 8-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time. 3rd last time, 3 lengths back, in a field of 8.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Squeezd st; 5w upr; game. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 9d back
RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 11 here: 4 wins, 15 top-3 in 47 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 CD 1 1/16 T MSW 3rd/8 -3L 81 8.3-1 L Squeezd st;5w upr;game
12ValedoraRan 2ndJ. Torres · W. MottTorres · Mott?15-1Fair 30-13%—Debut?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Jaime A Torres 32% career 2-for-14 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer William I Mott 34% career
Also today · Jockey R5: Greers Ferry 3-1, R8: Feasible 20-1, R9: Timelapse 8-1
Jky 0/17 from post 12
Makes her first start with no form to go on, only the Frankel and Peace Charter breeding. First-time starter from a barn that wins 8% of the time with them (339 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 5d ago
RECORD Jaime A Torres has never won from post 12 here (5 top-3 in 17 rides) · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Frankel out of Peace Charter (War Front)
Trainer W. Mott: 1st-time starters: 8% wins, 28% in the money (339 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 8% wins, 29% in the money (333 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 38% in the money (1001 starts)
Jockey J. Torres in turf: 19 wins from 157 (12%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/27 CD 4f :48.80 breezing 11/23
10/20 CD 4f :50.20 breezing 40/47
10/13 CD 5f 1:01.80 breezing 16/21 from gate
10/2 CD 4f :49.80 breezing 45/64 from gate
9/25 CD 5f 1:00.20 breezing 7/14
13Marble Arch▲Ran 5thC. Torres · R. MedinaTorres · MedinaB92 73 57▲▲+26↕@trip 576-1Fair 12-17%▲▲ Big jump +26 · career best92 73 57 ↕@trip 57B▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 81
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +26 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–92 · Best fig at today's trip 57 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 73 57
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 81
Jockey Cristian A Torres 32% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Robert Medina 32% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Windsock 7-2, R8: Rose Alabama 15-1
Figures are climbing: 57, 73, 92 over its last three. Back to 1 1/8 miles off a 1 5/16 miles race.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 11d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 KD 1 5/16 T MSW 3rd/10 -5L 92 27-1 L Ins;std'd 1st;ang out
8/16 ELP 1 1/16 T MCL 50k 3rd/11 -1½L 73 9.5-1 L 2w-ins;aim 3w1/4;chsd
7/6 ELP 1m D MSW 8th/10 -10L 57 33-1 L 5p; tired
14Take the HelmJ. Elliott · E. HartyElliott · Harty?10-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #16 · Tier ?
Jockey Jane Elliott 35% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet · Trainer Eoin Harty 34% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet ★ hot
Before this first start, the Oct 10 work, 5F in :59.60, was the fastest at that distance that morning. This barn has 116 first-time starters on record and wins 12% of them.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.60 on Oct 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Astern out of Dowager (A.p. Indy)
Trainer E. Harty: 1st-time starters: 12% wins, 31% in the money (116 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 13% wins, 34% in the money (107 starts) · Maiden special weights: 15% wins, 44% in the money (297 starts)
Jockey J. Elliott in turf: 8 wins from 74 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/20 TP 5f 1:03.80 breezing 16/16
10/10 TP 5f :59.60 breezing 1/32 ● bullet
10/3 TP 5f 1:02.00 breezing 30/37
9/22 TP 4f :47.80 breezing 7/72 from gate
9/11 TP 5f 1:00.40 breezing 1/15 ● bullet
15Gimme Some Lovin▲Ran 4thA. Concepcion · K. DannerConcepcion · DannerA93 68 71▲▲+247-2Fair 10-18%▲▲ Big jump +24 · career best93 68 71A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 81
Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +24 · career best · Last 3 figs 93 68 71
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 81
Jockey Axel Concepcion 33% career 3-for-14 on turf this meet (21%), #2 of 14 · Trainer Kelsey Danner 35% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R4: Concrete Overlay 6-1, R8: In Total Awe 3-1, R9: McKeonville 5-1 · Trainer R4: Concrete Overlay 6-1, R9: McKeonville 5-1
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 93, with 92 next best. Finished 2nd in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at KD, beaten 1½ lengths.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 10d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 KD 1 5/16 T MSW 2nd/10 -1½L 93 17-1 L Rushd;4w-ins;4w1/4;bid
8/4 IND 1m T MSW 2nd/10 -3½L 68 4.6-1 L 3p;bid3/16;no match
6/25 IND 1m T MSW 5th/11 -7¼L 71 13-1 L Angld4p1/8;bid late

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	CD	1 1/16 D	MSW	5th/6 -8½L	74	42-1	L	2w;4w3/4;no impact
5/23	CD	1m D	MSW	4th/6 -9L	58	34-1	b L	4-3p;5p1/4;moved up
10/2	IND	1m D	MSW	7th/8 -14L	36	21-1	b	Vied btw;fade far turn

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	KD	1m T	MSW	4th/12 -2¼L	77	15-1	b L	Angld 4-5w;not enough

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
1/18	GP	1 1/16 D	MSW	5th/11	63	2.5-1	L	2wd; led; weakened
11/29	CD	-8½f T	MSW	3rd/12 -4¼L	73	3.6-1		2wbtw;5p upr;edged shw

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/27	CD	4f	:48.80	breezing	11/23
10/20	CD	4f	:50.20	breezing	40/47
10/13	CD	5f	1:01.80	breezing	16/21	from gate
10/2	CD	4f	:49.80	breezing	45/64	from gate
9/25	CD	5f	1:00.20	breezing	7/14

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	KD	1 5/16 T	MSW	3rd/10 -5L	92	27-1	L	Ins;std'd 1st;ang out
8/16	ELP	1 1/16 T	MCL 50k	3rd/11 -1½L	73	9.5-1	L	2w-ins;aim 3w1/4;chsd
7/6	ELP	1m D	MSW	8th/10 -10L	57	33-1	L	5p; tired

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/20	TP	5f	1:03.80	breezing	16/16
10/10	TP	5f	:59.60	breezing	1/32	● bullet
10/3	TP	5f	1:02.00	breezing	30/37
9/22	TP	4f	:47.80	breezing	7/72	from gate
9/11	TP	5f	1:00.40	breezing	1/15	● bullet

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	KD	1 5/16 T	MSW	2nd/10 -1½L	93	17-1	L	Rushd;4w-ins;4w1/4;bid
8/4	IND	1m T	MSW	2nd/10 -3½L	68	4.6-1	L	3p;bid3/16;no match
6/25	IND	1m T	MSW	5th/11 -7¼L	71	13-1	L	Angld4p1/8;bid late

16Ghosts Lil Secret▼M. Fernandez · D. DonaldsonFernandez · DonaldsonC72 69 71►≡20-1<1%► Steady72 69 71 ≡C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81

Card model <1% · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–72 · Last 3 figs 72 69 71

▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81

Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career · Trainer Debra Donaldson 22% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Shanett 12-1, R3: Chief Ball 50-1, R4: Mambo Man 15-1, R5: Bagg O Time 20-1 +1 more

Sheds 6 pounds from its last start. Maiden through 13 starts.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 56d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	1m T	MCL 25k	2nd/6 -4L	72	1.9-1	b L	2p1st;4p2nd;improved
9/12	GP	1 1/16 D	GngrPnchHB100k	8th/9 -10L	69	62-1	b	Slow early; no factor;
7/27	GP	1 1/16 T	MCL 17k	2nd/7	71	9.0-1	b L	Off bit slow; pulled

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #11 The Look, finished 7th.

1st7EenymeanymightymoWin$21.14Place$10.62Show$5.06Our #7

2nd12ValedoraWin—Place$20.70Show$9.84Our #9

3rd4Elida's Angel (ire)Win—Place—Show$3.92Our #2

4th15Gimme Some LovinOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 6

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

16 runners

Purse

$120,000

Post

3:26 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#11 · 28%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 1/8 Miles: 105.51

The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #11 The Look (a closer, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 81. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Elida's Angel at 9-2. Use #1 Indomiknow in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUT

Eenymeanymightymo won (our #7) · top pick The Look ran 7th

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (7th)
✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (our #7)
✗ Our top 3 finished 7th, —, —

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#11 THE LOOK	7th
#2	#4 ELIDA'S ANGEL	—
#3	#1 INDOMIKNOW	—
#4	#15 GIMME SOME LOVIN	4th
#5	#10 COPYCAT	6th

Actual finish

1st	#7 Eenymeanymightymo	our #7
2nd	#12 Valedora	our #9
3rd	Elida's Angel (IRE)	unranked
4th	#15 Gimme Some Lovin	our #4
5th	#13 Marble Arch	our #6

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #11 THE LOOK (9-5) — our number agrees.
#11 THE LOOK — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 25.9%, they've got 20.1%.
#4 ELIDA'S ANGEL — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.3%, they've got 10.2%.
#15 GIMME SOME LOVIN — our #4 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 12.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#11 THE LOOK — we make it 25.9%, the morning line works out to 20.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#4 ELIDA'S ANGEL — we make it 15.3%, the morning line works out to 10.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 INDOMIKNOW (6-1) — our fair 10.6% is above the morning line's 8.0%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #15 Gimme Some Lovin; pressure from #13 Marble Arch, #2 Twinklee; the shape helps #1 Indomiknow, #3 Eleonora, #4 Elida's Angel; and works against #2 Twinklee, #5 Thirteen Roses, #6 White Star Line.

Lead

15Gimme Some Lovin8713Marble Arch852Twinklee8210Copycat80

Press

none

Stalk

7Eenymeanymightymo85

3Eleonora841Indomiknow8216Ghosts Lil Secret829Cowgirl Paradise7811The Look784Elida's Angel74

No style yet

5Thirteen Roses978Got What I Got776White Star Line7612Valedora14Take The Helm

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Gimme Some Lovin

Eenymeanymightymo

Marble Arch

Twinklee

Copycat

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Elida's Angel

Ghosts Lil Secret

Indomiknow

Eleonora

Cowgirl Paradise

The Look

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