Pick sheet

Race 31:58 PM Md Sp Wt

5F · Turf · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, Love a Warrior, is 56% to win (morning line implies 44%). Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #8 Love a Warrior ML 4-5 Fair 4-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +4 ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85

Jockey L. Saez · Trainer S. Asmussen · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	5½f T	IndnSmmr G3	2nd/9 -4L	85	24-1	Ins;4p upr;bid btw;mss
9/10	CD	6f D	MSW	2nd/10	86	5.3-1	Pace; clear; caught
7/26	ELP	6f D	MSW	3rd/9 -5L	77	33-1	Vied ins;chased;kpt on

Case: Last out 2nd in the IndnSmmr-G3 at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 85-86-77. 0-for-1 at the distance. S. Asmussen / L. Saez.

Knock: Never raced at Churchill Downs. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #5 Captivate ML 9-2 Fair 8-1 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 85

Jockey V. Carrasco · Trainer B. Lynch · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 5f turf 66 · 33 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	IND	5f T	MSW	2nd/9 -1L	66	7.0-1	b	Awk;duel;shift inside

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at IND. Last Brisnet figures 66. Best at today's distance 66. 0-for-1 at the distance. B. Lynch / V. Carrasco.

Knock: Never raced at Churchill Downs. 0-for-1 at the distance.

Use #1 Rupp ML 6-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 Last out 7th/8 in the MdSpWt at KD. Last Brisnet figures 66-82. B. Cox / G. Corrales. Knock: Never raced at Churchill Downs. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey G. Corrales · Trainer B. Cox · 57 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	KD	7f T	MSW	7th/8	66	1.6-1		Pace;faltered late
8/2	ELP	5½f D	MSW	3rd/10 -½L	82	8.1-1		3p;bid btw;vied;repeld

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #8 · B #4, #5, #9 · C #6 · ? #2, #7 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #4 Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 85 · #5 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 85 · #6 Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 85 · #8 Last fig 85 at/above par 85 · #9 Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 85

R3 Churchill Downs · Maiden Special Weight

1:58 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $120,000 · 9 runners1:58 PM · 5f Turf · 9 runners

Official $120K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1RuppRan 5thG. Corrales · B. CoxCorrales · CoxA66 826-1Fair 8-111%—66 82A3
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 66 82
Jockey Gerardo Corrales 37% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career 1-for-8 on turf this meet (12%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R5: Strummin 10-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Was running in maiden special weight; today's maiden special weight is an easier level on paper. Back to 5 furlongs off a 7 furlongs race.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Pace; faltered late. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 8d back
RECORD Gerardo Corrales from post 1 here: 3 wins, 6 top-3 in 33 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 KD 7f T MSW 7th/8 66 1.6-1 Pace;faltered late
8/2 ELP 5½f D MSW 3rd/10 -½L 82 8.1-1 3p;bid btw;vied;repeld
2Epic RoadRan 3rdM. Gutierrez · P. MatejkaGutierrez · Matejka?20-1Fair 50-12%—Debut?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Mario Gutierrez 32% career 1-for-6 on turf this meet · Trainer Pavel Matejka 24% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Soap Note 3-1
First career start, by Epicenter out of Tiffany's Mo. This barn has 32 first-time starters on record and wins 9% of them.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.60 on Sep 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d
RECORD Mario Gutierrez from post 2 here: 3 wins, 8 top-3 in 20 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Epicenter out of Tiffany's Mo (Uncle Mo)
Trainer P. Matejka: 1st-time starters: 9% wins, 25% in the money (32 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 11% wins, 30% in the money (27 starts) · Maiden special weights: 6% wins, 35% in the money (129 starts)
Jockey M. Gutierrez in turf: 18 wins from 159 (11%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/22 TTC 4f :48.20 breezing 2/19
10/15 TTC 5f 1:01.40 breezing 1/2 ● bullet from gate
10/9 TTC 4f :49.60 breezing 17/42
10/2 TTC 4f :49.60 breezing 15/38
9/25 TTC 3f :36.60 breezing 1/9 ● bullet
3Take Charge BeachRan 2ndE. Morales · G. GarciaMorales · GarciaA82 70 64▲▲+178-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best82 70 64A
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +17 · career best · Last 3 figs 82 70 64
Jockey Edgar Morales 32% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Genaro Garcia 32% career 1-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R4: Army Run 20-1, R5: Surfin' M 8-1, R9: Kiss The Medal 15-1 · Trainer R4: Army Run 20-1, R7: Social Hour 4-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSJky 15/92 from post 3
Has moved up each time out, 64 to 70 to 82. Shortens up to 5 furlongs after going 6½ furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 8d ago)
RECORD Edgar Morales from post 3 here: 15 wins, 37 top-3 in 92 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 KD 6½f T MSW 2nd/12 82 7.5-1 b Led to 1/16;overtaken
8/23 ELP 1m D MSW 7th/12 -3½L 70 16-1 b Ins;ins pair 2nd;faded
7/14 IND 7½f T MSW 2nd/7 64 2.6-1 b Duel;bid3/16;caught
4Kendom▼Ran 7thJ. Ramos · L. HendricksonRamos · HendricksonB56@trip 5620-1Fair 30-13%—56@trip 56B▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 85
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 56 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 56
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey Joseph D Ramos 34% career · Trainer Lori Hendrickson 0-for-1 on turf this meet
Best recent figure is 56, well under the 85 par for this level. Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/29 IND 5f T MSW 3rd/9 -4L 56 4.8-1 Brsh;press;sted1/2
5Captivate▼Ran 8thV. Carrasco · B. LynchCarrasco · LynchB66@trip 669-2Fair 8-111%—66@trip 66B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 852
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey Victor R Carrasco 27% career 0-for-9 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Brian A Lynch 36% career 1-for-7 on turf this meet
Also today · Trainer R9: Twillo 7-2
★ FASTEST WORK
Last out was 2nd, 1 length behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden special weight race at IND. Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and maiden special weight now.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 22; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/29 IND 5f T MSW 2nd/9 -1L 66 7.0-1 b Awk;duel;shift inside

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/22	TTC	4f	:48.20	breezing	2/19
10/15	TTC	5f	1:01.40	breezing	1/2	● bullet from gate
10/9	TTC	4f	:49.60	breezing	17/42
10/2	TTC	4f	:49.60	breezing	15/38
9/25	TTC	3f	:36.60	breezing	1/9	● bullet

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	KD	6½f T	MSW	2nd/12	82	7.5-1	b	Led to 1/16;overtaken
8/23	ELP	1m D	MSW	7th/12 -3½L	70	16-1	b	Ins;ins pair 2nd;faded
7/14	IND	7½f T	MSW	2nd/7	64	2.6-1	b	Duel;bid3/16;caught

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/29	IND	5f T	MSW	3rd/9 -4L	56	4.8-1		Brsh;press;sted1/2

6Chief Ball▼Ran 9thM. Fernandez · J. KelleyFernandez · KelleyC54 45 35▲▲+1450-1Fair 99-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best54 45 35C▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 85

Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · career best · Last 3 figs 54 45 35

▼ Best fig 54 is 5+ under today's par 85

Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career · Trainer James A Kelley 16% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Shanett 12-1, R4: Mambo Man 15-1, R5: Bagg O Time 20-1, R6: Ghosts Lil Secret 20-1 +1 more

Miguel Fernandez takes over from Katie Davis in the saddle. Beaten 13 lengths for 12th in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 0)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 10d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1 1/16 T	MSW	12th/12 -13L	54	75-1		Chased ins; gave way
9/6	CNL	1m T	rMdSpWt	11th/12 -11L	45	76-1	b	Duel;larger lead;stopd
7/12	CNL	5½f T	rMdSpWt	9th/9 -13L	35	34-1		3 wide; no threat

7Kalapaki PointRan 6thB. Hernandez Jr. · D. StewartHernandez Jr. · Stewart?15-1Fair 30-14%—Debut?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career 1-for-10 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Dallas Stewart 29% career 1-for-2 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Diagram 7-2, R5: Executor 5-1, R6: Copycat 8-1, R8: Ready Comete 7-2 · Trainer R1: Soap Note 3-1, R8: Ready Comete 7-2
First-time starter from a barn that wins 11% of the time with them (100 tried). It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 7).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 9d ago
Last three races
First start. By Charlatan out of Aurora Point (Malibu Moon)
Trainer D. Stewart: 1st-time starters: 11% wins, 29% in the money (100 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 9% wins, 27% in the money (91 starts) · Maiden special weights: 12% wins, 32% in the money (331 starts)
Jockey B. Hernandez Jr. in turf: 28 wins from 237 (12%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/23 CD 4f :48.60 breezing 27/64
10/14 CD 5f 1:02.20 breezing 17/19
10/7 CD 4f :48.60 breezing 19/51 from gate
9/26 CD 4f :48.80 breezing 58/155
9/19 CD 4f :48.40 breezing 29/139
8Love a Warrior▲Ran 1stL. Saez · S. AsmussenSaez · AsmussenA85 86 77▲+44-5Fair 4-556%▲ Up +485 86 77A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 851
Card model 56% · Fair odds 4-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 85 86 77
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85
Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 2-for-21 on turf this meet (10%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career 1-for-1 on turf this meet ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R2: Menkaure 2-1, R6: Indomiknow 6-1, R8: That's A Benjamin 10-1, R9: Twillo 7-2 · Trainer R2: Ashes And Diamonds 3-1, R4: Captain Call 12-1, R8: Feminism 12-1
Tops the field on speed figures, an 86 against 82 for the next best. Runs for $120,000 today after a $350,000 race last time.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 8d back)
RECORD Luis Saez from post 8 here: 23 wins, 47 top-3 in 110 rides · 17% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 KEE 5½f T IndnSmmr G3 2nd/9 -4L 85 24-1 Ins;4p upr;bid btw;mss
9/10 CD 6f D MSW 2nd/10 86 5.3-1 Pace; clear; caught
7/26 ELP 6f D MSW 3rd/9 -5L 77 33-1 Vied ins;chased;kpt on
9Fire Marshal▼Ran 4thT. Gaffalione · M. MakerGaffalione · MakerB63 70 70▼-710-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -763 70 70B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 85
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 63 70 70
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career ★ 5-for-21 on turf this meet (24%), #1 of 14 · Trainer Michael J Maker 36% career 0-for-10 on turf this meet (0%) ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Jackies Einor 5-1, R5: Culprit 2-1, R6: The Look 9-5, R8: Kaykay 2-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Now He's Gone 6-1
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Led at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: In hand 3-2w; wknd.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 24d back)
RECORD Tyler Gaffalione from post 9 here: 13 wins, 39 top-3 in 80 rides · 18% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 BEL 6f D Moc75000 5th/9 -1½L 63 2.7-1 b In hand 3-2w; wknd
8/21 SAR 5½f T sMdSpWt 2nd/8 70 7.0-1 b Awkward st; caught
6/18 BAQ 5½f T MSW 5th/9 -3L 70 3.7-1 b Ins-3p turn;chsd;wknd

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/23	CD	4f	:48.60	breezing	27/64
10/14	CD	5f	1:02.20	breezing	17/19
10/7	CD	4f	:48.60	breezing	19/51	from gate
9/26	CD	4f	:48.80	breezing	58/155
9/19	CD	4f	:48.40	breezing	29/139

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	BEL	6f D	Moc75000	5th/9 -1½L	63	2.7-1	b	In hand 3-2w; wknd
8/21	SAR	5½f T	sMdSpWt	2nd/8	70	7.0-1	b	Awkward st; caught
6/18	BAQ	5½f T	MSW	5th/9 -3L	70	3.7-1	b	Ins-3p turn;chsd;wknd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #8 Love A Warrior, won.

1st8Love A WarriorWin$2.70Place$2.28Show$2.10Our #1

2nd3Take Charge BeachWin—Place$5.56Show$3.78Our #4

3rd2Epic RoadWin—Place—Show$8.84Our #8

4th9Fire MarshalOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Maiden Special Weight

Field

9 runners

Purse

$120,000

Post

1:58 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#8 · 56%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 55.01

The shape is the story here: 6 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #8 Love A Warrior (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-5). Recent figures: 85 · 86 · 77. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Captivate at 9-2. Use #1 Rupp in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · WON

Top pick Love A Warrior won

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (1st)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #1)

What didn't

✗ Our top 3 finished 1st, 8th, 5th

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#8 LOVE A WARRIOR	1st
#2	#5 CAPTIVATE	8th
#3	#1 RUPP	5th
#4	#3 TAKE CHARGE BEACH	2nd
#5	#9 FIRE MARSHAL	4th

Actual finish

1st	#8 Love a Warrior	our #1
2nd	#3 Take Charge Beach	our #4
3rd	#2 Epic Road	our #8
4th	#9 Fire Marshal	our #5
5th	#1 Rupp	our #3

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #8 LOVE A WARRIOR (4-5) — our number agrees.
#8 LOVE A WARRIOR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (46.8% to their 44.1%).
#5 CAPTIVATE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (13.7% to their 14.4%).
#1 RUPP — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.7% to their 11.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Take Charge Beach; pressure from #9 Fire Marshal, #1 Rupp; and works against #1 Rupp, #2 Epic Road, #3 Take Charge Beach.

Lead

3Take Charge Beach1049Fire Marshal961Rupp944Kendom905Captivate906Chief Ball85

Press

8Love A Warrior96

Stalk

none

No style yet

2Epic Road7Kalapaki Point

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Take Charge Beach

104

Love A Warrior

Fire Marshal

Rupp

Kendom

Captivate

Chief Ball

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Take Charge Beach

Rupp

Kendom

Captivate

Love A Warrior

Chief Ball

Fire Marshal

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Bet types

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