Pick sheet

Race 21:29 PM Clm 20000bEarly Pick 4 starts

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Menkaure, is 31% to win (morning line implies 27%). Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Menkaure ML 2-1 Fair 2-1 Model #1 ► Steady ≡ Steady 69–77 ▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey L. Saez · Trainer B. Vanden · KEE 4: 1-0-2 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	CD	1m D	Alw s	6th/6 -4L	72	20-1	b L	Tracked 2p; faded
8/21	ELP	6½f D	Clm 30k bc	5th/7 -6½L	73	9.8-1	b L	Ins-2p;improvd;no thrt
6/12	CD	7f D	Clm 50k c	3rd/7 -1½L	69	8.1-1	b L	Ins;3w1/4;grind;outkck

Case: Last out 6th/6 -4L in the fAlw30000s at CD. Last Brisnet figures 72-73-69. 1-for-4 at Churchill Downs. B. Vanden / L. Saez.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #6 Diagram ML 7-2 Fair 9-2 Model #2 ▼ Down -4 ↕ Up and down 40–83 Blinkers off

Jockey B. Hernandez Jr. · Trainer K. Larose · KEE 5: 0-0-1 · Dist 8: 1-1-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 78 · 46 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/16	CD	6f D	Clm 16k bc	7th/10 -4½L	63	5.8-1	b L	Wide trip; no menace
8/15	ELP	6f D	Clm 16k n2l	Won/8	78	0.9-1	b L	Easily;eased up;held
7/17	ELP	5½f D	MCL 10k	Won/8	83	2.2-1	b L	In hand 2p; held sway

Case: Last out 7th/10 -4½L in the fClm16000bc at CD. Last Brisnet figures 63-78-83. Best at today's distance 78. 1-for-8 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Churchill Downs. K. Larose / B. Hernandez Jr..

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Use #2 Ashes and Diamonds ML 3-1 Fair 5-1 Model #3 ▼ Down -5 Last out 4th/7 -7½L in the fClm30000b at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 70-77-70. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-2 at the distance. 2-for-9 at Churchill Downs. S. Asmussen / K. Asmussen. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey K. Asmussen · Trainer S. Asmussen · KEE 9: 2-0-1 · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 79 · 10 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	KEE	-7f D	Clm 30k b	4th/7 -7½L	70	4.1-1	L	Chased 4-3p; no bid
9/26	CD	6½f D	Clm 20k n2lc	Won/8 by ½	77	3.9-1	L	3-4w;bid/bmp 5w1/8;edg
9/10	CD	6f D	Clm 50k n2l	7th/7 -7½L	70	9.8-1	L	Rail trip; no response

Longshot #4 Ashkenazi ML 10-1 Fair 12-1 Model #5 ▲ Up +5

Jockey A. Cedillo · Trainer R. Hiles · KEE 6: 2-1-1 · Dist 10: 0-2-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 84 · 24 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	KEE	6f D	Clm 20k b	6th/10 -3L	70	8.3-1	b L	4w;left lead;yield btw
9/16	CD	6f D	Clm 16k b	3rd/10	71	11-1	b L	Led 3/16ths; no match
8/13	IND	6f D	Clm 15k n3x	9th/9 -3½L	61	2.9-1	b L	Awk;stalk3p;faded str

Case: Last out 6th/10 -3L in the fClm20000b at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 70-71-61. Best at today's distance 84. 0-for-10 at the distance. 2-for-6 at Churchill Downs. R. Hiles / A. Cedillo.

Knock: 0-for-10 at the distance.

★ Distance horse: #7 Shanett (12-1) has the best figure in the field at 6f dirt: 89 from 8 tries, record at the distance 8: 2-0-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #6 · B #1, #4, #5 · C #7

Angles: #3 Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 82

R2 Churchill Downs · Claiming $20,000

1:29 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $58,000 · 7 runners1:29 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Official $58K · Claiming $20,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #7 Shanett (12-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 89 from 8 tries. Not in our top three.

1Miss ClarkeRan 6thL. MacHado · M. EvansMacHado · EvansB63 78 76▼▼-13@trip 765-1Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -1363 78 76@trip 76B

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 78 76

Jockey Luan Machado 35% career 0-for-18 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Michael Ii Evans 41% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R6: Cowgirl Paradise 15-1, R9: Yogesh 15-1

Raises its level, optional claiming last time and $20,000 claiming now. Finished 6th in a 7-horse optional claiming race at IND, beaten 10 lengths.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 22 days ago

RECORD Luan Machado from post 1 here: 9 wins, 33 top-3 in 84 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/9	IND	6f D	OC 20k	6th/7 -10L	63	14-1	b L	4path;faded stretch
8/5	BTP	5½f D	OC 16k n1x	Won/5	78	1.4-1	b L	Speed; fended; clrd
7/17	BTP	6f D	Alw n3l	Won/4 by 2	76	2.0-1	b L	Hard chase;3w bid;drvg

2Ashes and DiamondsRan 1stK. Asmussen · S. AsmussenAsmussen · AsmussenA70 77 70▼-5@trip 793-1Fair 5-116%▼ Down -570 77 70@trip 79A3

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 77 70

Jockey Keith J Asmussen 34% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career 5-for-42 on dirt this meet (12%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Glenadean 6-1, R4: Captain Call 12-1, R8: Feminism 12-1 · Trainer R3: Love A Warrior 4-5, R4: Captain Call 12-1, R8: Feminism 12-1

A longer trip: -7 furlongs last out, 6 furlongs today. Quick turnaround, just 10 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 19d ago)

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Keith J Asmussen from post 2 here: 3 wins, 13 top-3 in 43 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/22	KEE	-7f D	Clm 30k b	4th/7 -7½L	70	4.1-1	L	Chased 4-3p; no bid
9/26	CD	6½f D	Clm 20k n2lc	Won/8 by ½	77	3.9-1	L	3-4w;bid/bmp 5w1/8;edg
9/10	CD	6f D	Clm 50k n2l	7th/7 -7½L	70	9.8-1	L	Rail trip; no response

3Menkaure▼Ran 5thL. Saez · B. VandenSaez · VandenA72 73 69►≡2-1Fair 2-131%► Steady72 73 69 ≡A▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 821

Card model 31% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–77 · Last 3 figs 72 73 69

▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 82

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career 7-for-46 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Berg Brittany A Vanden 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Love A Warrior 4-5, R6: Indomiknow 6-1, R8: That's A Benjamin 10-1, R9: Twillo 7-2 · Trainer R1: Ultimit Warrior 8-1, this race: Shanett 12-1

3/4 board here

Cuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Beaten 4 lengths for 6th in a 6-horse allowance race at CD.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 23d back)

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 4 starts here

RECORD Luis Saez from post 3 here: 30 wins, 79 top-3 in 152 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	CD	1m D	Alw s	6th/6 -4L	72	20-1	b L	Tracked 2p; faded
8/21	ELP	6½f D	Clm 30k bc	5th/7 -6½L	73	9.8-1	b L	Ins-2p;improvd;no thrt
6/12	CD	7f D	Clm 50k c	3rd/7 -1½L	69	8.1-1	b L	Ins;3w1/4;grind;outkck

4AshkenaziLSRan 4thA. Cedillo · R. HilesCedillo · HilesB70 71 61▲+5@trip 8410-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +570 71 61@trip 84BLS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 71 61

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Abel Cedillo 28% career 1-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Rick Hiles 32% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Down Time 2-1, R5: Impavido 20-1

★ FASTEST WORK4/6 board here

Best recent figure is 71, well under the 82 par for this level. Winless in 10 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 27 (4F in :46.60), 2 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Abel Cedillo from post 4 here: 1 win, 3 top-3 in 16 rides · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	KEE	6f D	Clm 20k b	6th/10 -3L	70	8.3-1	b L	4w;left lead;yield btw
9/16	CD	6f D	Clm 16k b	3rd/10	71	11-1	b L	Led 3/16ths; no match
8/13	IND	6f D	Clm 15k n3x	9th/9 -3½L	61	2.9-1	b L	Awk;stalk3p;faded str

5Miss PierreRan 3rdC. Franca · F. NickelFranca · NickelB76 61 67▲▲+16↕@trip 768-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +1676 61 67 ↕@trip 76B

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 61 67

Jockey Carlos Erieltun Franca 14% career · Trainer Felipe Nickel 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

60D LAYOFF

Moves up from $15,000 claiming to $20,000 claiming. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Jul 21, in :49.40.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 26d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/13	IND	6f D	Clm 15k n3x	2nd/9 -5L	76	6.0-1	b L	Inside;rallied1/8
6/18	CT	6½f D	Alw n3x	3rd/6 -4½L	61	11-1	b L	Bore out;chased;evenly
5/1	LRL	1m T	Clm 16k n3l	7th/8 -8¼L	67	10-1	b L	Outside; no factor

6DiagramRan 2ndB. Hernandez Jr. · K. LaroseHernandez Jr. · LaroseA63 78 83▼-4↕@trip 787-2Fair 9-218%▼ Down -463 78 83 ↕@trip 78A2

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 40–83 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 78 83

Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career ★ 9-for-35 on dirt this meet (26%), #3 of 25 · Trainer Kinnon Larose 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Kalapaki Point 15-1, R5: Executor 5-1, R6: Copycat 8-1, R8: Ready Comete 7-2

New trainer: William Bret Calhoun had it last time, Kinnon Larose now. Figures have slipped: 83, 78, 63 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 15d back

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 6 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/16	CD	6f D	Clm 16k bc	7th/10 -4½L	63	5.8-1	b L	Wide trip; no menace
8/15	ELP	6f D	Clm 16k n2l	Won/8	78	0.9-1	b L	Easily;eased up;held
7/17	ELP	5½f D	MCL 10k	Won/8	83	2.2-1	b L	In hand 2p; held sway

7Shanett★Ran 7thM. Fernandez · B. VandenFernandez · VandenC62 60 60▲+6@trip 8912-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +662 60 60@trip 89C★ Best at the trip 89

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 60 60

★ Best at the trip 89

Jockey Miguel Fernandez 29% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet · Trainer Berg Brittany A Vanden 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Chief Ball 50-1, R4: Mambo Man 15-1, R5: Bagg O Time 20-1, R6: Ghosts Lil Secret 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R1: Ultimit Warrior 8-1, this race: Menkaure 2-1

A 65 is the high figure lately, short of the 82 par. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 7 (3F in :36.40), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	KEE	6f D	Clm 20k b	7th/10 -4½L	62	3.9-1	b L	Duel 2w;outkk;wknd btw
8/18	IND	6f D	OC 20k	5th/5 -6L	60	8.6-1	b L	Stalked 3p;faded str
6/24	CD	6f D	Clm 50k b	8th/8 -3L	60	4.0-1	b L	Ins wnnr;no mtch;caved

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Menkaure, finished 5th.

1st2Ashes And DiamondsWin$8.58Place$4.34Show$2.76Our #3

2nd6DiagramWin—Place$3.88Show$2.68Our #2

3rd5Miss PierreWin—Place—Show$4.60Our #6

4th4AshkenaziOur #5

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

CHURCHILL DOWNS · RACE 2

OFFICIAL

Claiming $20,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$58,000

Post

1:29 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#3 · 31%

Claiming $20,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.55

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Menkaure (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 72 · 73 · 69. Backup is #6 Diagram at 7-2. Use #2 Ashes And Diamonds in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · OUR #3 WON

Ashes And Diamonds (our #3) won · top pick Menkaure ran 5th

What worked

✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #3)
✓ Our top 3 finished 5th, 2nd, 1st

What didn't

✗ Top pick off the board (5th)

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 MENKAURE	5th
#2	#6 DIAGRAM	2nd
#3	#2 ASHES AND DIAMONDS	1st
#4	#1 MISS CLARKE	6th
#5	#4 ASHKENAZI	4th

Actual finish

1st	#2 Ashes and Diamonds	our #3
2nd	#6 Diagram	our #2
3rd	#5 Miss Pierre	our #6
4th	#4 Ashkenazi	our #5
5th	#3 Menkaure	our #1

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 MENKAURE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#3 MENKAURE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (27.0% to their 26.6%).
#2 ASHES AND DIAMONDS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.5% to their 20.0%).
#6 DIAGRAM — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #7 Shanett; pressure from #4 Ashkenazi, #6 Diagram; the shape helps #2 Ashes And Diamonds; and works against #4 Ashkenazi, #6 Diagram, #7 Shanett.

Lead

7Shanett994Ashkenazi946Diagram90

Press

1Miss Clarke935Miss Pierre81

Stalk

3Menkaure75

2Ashes And Diamonds82

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Shanett

Ashkenazi

Miss Clarke

Diagram

Miss Pierre

Menkaure

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ashes And Diamonds

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