FP · RACE 1

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

9 runners

Purse

$38,000

Post

2:30 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

IQ top

#7 · 95

PANELPASS · lean #3 POSITION OUR LUCK [STRONG]see full panel →

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 99.8

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #7 My Last Escapade (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 61 · 69 · 68. Backup is #3 Position Our Luck at 4-1. Use #8 Citizen Ex in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1WIN

7My Last Escapade

Jockey Frank Reyes 30% career 3-for-42 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Adrian M Salazar 21% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: American Blend 30-1, R4: Two Step Jake 15-1, R10: Sound Of Victory 7-2

Winless in 11 starts at this distance. Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 19d ago

M/L5-2

IQ95

TierTop

StyleE

Last5th · 14d

2PLACE

3Position Our Luck

Jockey Brody Martinez 33% career ★ 23-for-76 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 20 · Trainer Robert Pompell 22% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Man Of Quality 4-1, R3: Cheater 7-1, R4: Tricky Moment 10-1, R5: Hanabi 15-1 +5 more · Trainer R10: Gun It And Run It 12-1

Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6 furlongs last time. Still looking for the first win after 7 starts.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 130d ago

M/L4-1

IQ69

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 24d

3SHOW

8Citizen Ex

Jockey Johanis Aranguren 14% career ★ 14-for-65 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Brian Cook 25% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Free Choice 9-1, R4: Mr. Sweets 7-1, R5: Arose For Lily 5-1, R6: Nip N Tuck 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R5: Boyce's Bandita 30-1, R7: Nations Dream 20-1

Worked 5F in 1:01.60 on Jul 22, 3rd of 6 at the distance. Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6 furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Brk out; 4-5w; outkicked. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 67d ago

M/L9-2

IQ61

TierLive

StyleP

Last4th · 24d

4EXOTICS

6Dandy Ruby

Jockey Alexander Bendezu 35% career ★ 19-for-79 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 20 · Trainer Scott Becker 36% career ★ 16-for-61 on dirt this meet (26%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Dang It Dan 5-1, R3: Odin The Accident 15-1, R4: Last Moon 5-1, R5: Boyce's Bandita 30-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Dang It Dan 5-1, R3: W W Nolan 3-2, R8: Fiery Songbird 6-5, R8: W W Cash 6-1

Figures have slipped: 56, 51, 42 over its last three. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Jul 24, in :48.00.

EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 24; 0 works in 30d

M/L6-1

IQ59

TierLive

StyleS

Last10th · 24d

5EXOTICS

4Will Conquer

Jockey Javier Tavares 25% career 7-for-60 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Steve Fridley 23% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Tower Grove Park 8-1, R3: Delong Shot 5-1, R4: Cutlass King 9-1, R6: Euclid Avenue 6-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Odin The Accident 15-1

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 58 against a 75 par. Maiden through 7 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Inside turn; swung 6wd last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 95d back)

M/L6-1

IQ56

TierLive

StyleNA

Last5th · 24d

1Lord Block

Jockey Harold Joseph Ortega 26% career 2-for-29 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Omar Razvi 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Allkindsoftrouble 20-1, R3: Incorporated 15-1, R4: Caution Cardinal 10-1, R7: Harley'srunawaykid 30-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: Frost Bitten Ears 15-1, R3: Incorporated 15-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 74, with 70 next best. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, 1 1/16 miles today.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Tight brk; insd; 7w1/16. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 203 days ago

M/L5-1

IQ55

TierLive

StyleS

Last6th · 24d

5Warshin Machine

Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer John Jr Rednour 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Game Santa 15-1, R3: Macha Latte 12-1, R7: Time To Toast 30-1, R8: Epic Moment 30-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: K J 's Ransom 30-1, R3: American Blend 30-1, R6: Nip N Tuck 30-1

Beaten 15 lengths for 6th in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at FPK. A 45-day gap since its last race.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bmps btwn brk; swung7w), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 4d ago

M/L15-1

IQ49

TierLongshot

StyleNA

Last6th · 45d

9Frost Bitten Ears

Jockey Carlos C Herrera 27% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Omar Razvi 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Trainer this race: Lord Block 5-1, R3: Incorporated 15-1

The Jul 9 work, 4F in :49.20, was the best time at that distance that morning. A 53 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5wd; drop in; mv; fade. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Jul 9; 0 works in 30d

M/L15-1

IQ48

TierLongshot

StyleNA

Last6th · 28d

2K J 's Ransom

Jockey Alvin Ortiz 37% career 2-for-45 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer John Jr Rednour 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Ima Chunky Monkey 8-1, R3: Quiet Deputy 12-1, R4: Gibran 30-1, R8: Show Pam 15-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Warshin Machine 15-1, R3: American Blend 30-1, R6: Nip N Tuck 30-1

Last out was 7th, 16 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at FPK. Trending the wrong way on speed, 44 to 26 to 9.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 4d ago

M/L30-1

IQ28

TierOut

StyleP

Last7th · 45d

At a glance

Market favourite #7 MY LAST ESCAPADE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#7 MY LAST ESCAPADE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.7% to their 22.4%).
#3 POSITION OUR LUCK — our #2 number, about right at the windows (16.0% to their 15.7%).
#8 CITIZEN EX — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.6% to their 14.2%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: PASS — market efficient — no edge, pass

No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #7 My Last Escapade; pressure from #3 Position Our Luck; the shape helps #2 K J 's Ransom, #3 Position Our Luck, #8 Citizen Ex; and works against #4 Will Conquer, #5 Warshin Machine, #7 My Last Escapade.

Lead

7My Last Escapade84

Press

3Position Our Luck85

Stalk

8Citizen Ex872K J 's Ransom73

6Dandy Ruby911Lord Block75

No style yet

9Frost Bitten Ears834Will Conquer765Warshin Machine74

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Citizen Ex

Position Our Luck

My Last Escapade

K J 's Ransom

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Lord Block

Dandy Ruby

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win

#7 My Last Escapade

Top of the field by a clear 26-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.

Exacta — KEY

#7 My Last Escapade OVER #3 Position Our Luck · #8 Citizen Ex · #6 Dandy Ruby

Key #7 My Last Escapade on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.

Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL

#7 My Last Escapade / #3 Position Our Luck · #8 Citizen Ex · #6 Dandy Ruby / #3 Position Our Luck · #8 Citizen Ex · #6 Dandy Ruby · #4 Will Conquer

#7 My Last Escapade keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.

Superfecta — KEY

#7 My Last Escapade / #3 Position Our Luck · #8 Citizen Ex · #6 Dandy Ruby · #4 Will Conquer / #3 Position Our Luck · #8 Citizen Ex · #6 Dandy Ruby · #4 Will Conquer / ALL or #3 Position Our Luck · #8 Citizen Ex · #6 Dandy Ruby · #4 Will Conquer

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

★ Value angle Live underneath: #2 K J 's Ransom — the pace setup fits this one; use it in the 3rd/4th slots of your exotics for price.

Bet types offered at this track →

$1.00 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 1-2) / EXACTA

.50 CENT TRIFECTA(MINIMUM $1.00 WAGER)

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.