FP · RACE 5
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $20,000
Claiming $20,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.6
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #2 Lylah Renee (early speed, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 79 · 58 · 53. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Then Now 'n Always at 4-5. Use #1 Arose For Lily in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Freshened 101 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Steve Manley takes over the training from George Iii Leonard.
Gets a new rider, J E Felix replacing Victor Santiago. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 7 at the first call.
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 67 against a 77 par. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse optional claiming race at FPK. Figures are climbing: 56, 69, 70 over its last three.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 66 to 42 to 40. Alexander Bendezu takes over from Ademar Santos in the saddle.
Winless in 4 starts at this distance. Last out was 6th, 10 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse optional claiming race at FPK.
A step up in company: $10,000 claiming before, allowance optional claiming today. Best recent figure is 67, well under the 77 par for this level.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 THEN NOW 'N ALWAYS (4-5) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #6 THEN NOW 'N ALWAYS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (38.3% to their 43.8%).
- #3 BEER GOGGLES — our #4 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 19.7%).
- #1 AROSE FOR LILY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.7% to their 13.1%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #2 LYLAH RENEE (8-1) — our fair 11.3% is above the morning line's 8.8%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Lylah Renee; pressure from #4 Coaly, #6 Then Now 'n Always; the shape helps #1 Arose For Lily, #3 Beer Goggles, #4 Coaly; and works against #2 Lylah Renee.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#2 Lylah Renee (place saver: #6 Then Now 'n Always)
#2 Lylah Renee rates the best; #6 Then Now 'n Always the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#2 Lylah Renee · #6 Then Now 'n Always
Two standouts with little between them — box #2 Lylah Renee and #6 Then Now 'n Always both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#2 Lylah Renee · #6 Then Now 'n Always · #1 Arose For Lily
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Bet types offered at this track →
$1.00 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 5-6) / EXACTA
.50 CENT TRIFECTA (MINIMUM $1.00 WAGER)