FP · RACE 8
UPCOMINGClaiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.6
The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #4 Code Of Conduct (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 66 · 62 · 64. Backup is #6 Show Pam at 15-1. Use #9 Spicy Cantaloupe in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Beaten 5½ lengths for 6th in a 7-horse optional claiming race at FPK. Back to 6 furlongs off a a mile race.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 61 against a 73 par.
James M Watkins takes over the training from Harry E Lynch. Tops the field on speed figures, a 75 against 73 for the next best.
Won last out in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at FPK. 3rd of 6 at 4F on Oct 5, in :50.80.
Freshened 168 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. 0 for 5 at today's distance.
Last start was a win, in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at FPK at 1.9-1. Worked 4F in :49.40 on Jul 31, 2nd of 18 at the distance.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 63 to 54 to 50. Winless in 8 starts at this distance.
Class relief: $15,000 claiming last time, $10,000 claiming today. A 60 is the high figure lately, short of the 73 par.
Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs. Best recent figure is 61, well under the 73 par for this level.
Figures have slipped: 65, 64, 43 over its last three. Was running in optional claiming; today's $10,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
Moves up from $5,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming. The Jun 29 work, 4F in :50.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.
At a glance
- Market favourite #7 FIERY SONGBIRD (6-5) — our number has it ranked #4.
- #7 FIERY SONGBIRD — our #4 number, about right at the windows (32.3% to their 35.8%).
- #4 CODE OF CONDUCT — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 14.2%, they've got 11.3%.
- #11 W W CASH — our #6 number, about right at the windows (10.6% to their 11.3%).
Value read
- #4 CODE OF CONDUCT — we make it 14.2%, the morning line implies 11.3%. We're 25.6 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
- Longshot value: #6 SHOW PAM (15-1) — our fair 6.2% is above the morning line's 4.9%; supported by: last out: "5path;no late bid" — finished with authority
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #5 Epic Moment; pressure from #3 Hot T'Mater, #2 True Effect; the shape helps #1 Safecracker Sue, #10 Fear The Queen; and works against #2 True Effect, #3 Hot T'Mater, #5 Epic Moment.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#4 Code Of Conduct
Top of the field by a clear 9-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#4 Code Of Conduct OVER #6 Show Pam · #9 Spicy Cantaloupe · #7 Fiery Songbird
Key #4 Code Of Conduct on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#4 Code Of Conduct / #6 Show Pam · #9 Spicy Cantaloupe · #7 Fiery Songbird / #6 Show Pam · #9 Spicy Cantaloupe · #7 Fiery Songbird · #5 Epic Moment
#4 Code Of Conduct keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Superfecta — KEY
#4 Code Of Conduct / #6 Show Pam · #9 Spicy Cantaloupe · #7 Fiery Songbird · #5 Epic Moment / #6 Show Pam · #9 Spicy Cantaloupe · #7 Fiery Songbird · #5 Epic Moment / ALL or #6 Show Pam · #9 Spicy Cantaloupe · #7 Fiery Songbird · #5 Epic Moment
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
$1.00 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 8-9) / EXACTA
.50 CENT TRIFECTA (MINIMUM $1.00 WAGER)