FP · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Maiden Claiming $6,250

Field

10 runners

Purse

$10,500

Post

3:20 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

IQ top

#4 · 94

PANELPASS · lean #4 CHEATER [MAX]see full panel →

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.6

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Cheater (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-1). Recent figures: 64 · 45 · 67. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #9 Macha Latte at 12-1. Use #6 W W Nolan in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1WIN

4Cheater

Jockey Brody Martinez 33% career ★ 23-for-76 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 20 · Trainer Heather Irion 28% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Position Our Luck 4-1, R2: Man Of Quality 4-1, R4: Tricky Moment 10-1, R5: Hanabi 15-1 +5 more

★ FASTEST WORK

Last out was 2nd, 5 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse maiden claiming $6,250 race at FPK. Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Aug 15, in :36.40.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 34d back)

M/L7-1

IQ94

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 14d

2PLACE

9Macha Latte

Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Blake Kelly 30% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Warshin Machine 15-1, R2: Game Santa 15-1, R7: Time To Toast 30-1, R8: Epic Moment 30-1 +2 more

CLASS DROP

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Goes 6 furlongs after running 5 furlongs last time.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

M/L12-1

IQ78

TierLive

StyleS

Last8th · 25d

3SHOW

6W W Nolan

Jockey Victor Santiago 25% career ★ 7-for-34 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Scott Becker 36% career ★ 16-for-61 on dirt this meet (26%)

Also today · Jockey R8: W W Cash 6-1 · Trainer R1: Dandy Ruby 6-1, R2: Dang It Dan 5-1, R8: Fiery Songbird 6-5, R8: W W Cash 6-1

Was running in maiden claiming $15,000; today's maiden claiming $6,250 is an easier level on paper. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 71, with 67 next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 45d ago

M/L3-2

IQ65

TierContender

StyleE

Last7th · 21d

4EXOTICS

5Richochet Rick

Jockey Cory Orm 28% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Arthur A Coontz 16% career 2-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Brahms Jr. 30-1, R4: Severance 30-1, R9: Call Me Drossel 12-1 · Trainer R5: Hanabi 15-1

★ FASTEST WORK

0 for 8 at today's distance. Maiden through 15 starts.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 137 days ago

M/L6-1

IQ58

TierLive

StyleE

Last3rd · 14d

5EXOTICS

2Odin The Accident

Jockey Alexander Bendezu 35% career ★ 19-for-79 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 20 · Trainer Steve Fridley 23% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Dandy Ruby 6-1, R2: Dang It Dan 5-1, R4: Last Moon 5-1, R5: Boyce's Bandita 30-1 +5 more · Trainer R1: Will Conquer 6-1

180D+ LAYOFFCLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Back after 351 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. A big drop, maiden claiming $15,000 to maiden claiming $6,250, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 17 (5F in 1:01.20), 2 works in 30d

M/L15-1

IQ57

TierLongshot

StyleNA

Last7th · 351d

7Premor

Jockey Javier Diego 29% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer John Wainwright 18% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Sneaky Feet 15-1, R4: Grazen Gator 30-1, R5: Coaly 10-1, R7: Nations Dream 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R5: Coaly 10-1, R7: Hobbs 30-1, R10: Weslan 20-1

CLASS UP

Class relief: maiden claiming $15,000 last time, maiden claiming $6,250 today. Still looking for the first win after 11 starts.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.80 on Jul 7 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

M/L7-1

IQ51

TierLive

StyleS

Last6th · 21d

10Quiet Deputy

Jockey Alvin Ortiz 37% career 2-for-45 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer David Anthony 14% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: K J 's Ransom 30-1, R2: Ima Chunky Monkey 8-1, R4: Gibran 30-1, R8: Show Pam 15-1 +2 more

CLASS DROP

Figures are climbing: 37, 43, 58 over its last three. A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 68 par.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 20 days ago

M/L12-1

IQ50

TierLongshot

StyleE

Last4th · 14d

3Incorporated

Jockey Harold Joseph Ortega 26% career 2-for-29 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Omar Razvi 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Lord Block 5-1, R2: Allkindsoftrouble 20-1, R4: Caution Cardinal 10-1, R7: Harley'srunawaykid 30-1 +3 more · Trainer R1: Lord Block 5-1, R1: Frost Bitten Ears 15-1

Trending the wrong way on speed, 58 to 49 to 47. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 58 against a 68 par.

PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 20d back)

M/L15-1

IQ44

TierLongshot

StyleS

Last5th · 14d

8Delong Shot

Jockey Javier Tavares 25% career 7-for-60 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Ben Delong 28% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Will Conquer 6-1, R2: Tower Grove Park 8-1, R4: Cutlass King 9-1, R6: Euclid Avenue 6-1 +3 more · Trainer R6: As One Does 15-1, R7: Don't Tell Kim 6-1, R10: Spoonie 9-1

Beaten 10 lengths for 7th in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at FPK. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (4-7w turn; passed foes), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 11d ago

M/L5-1

IQ41

TierLive

StyleP

Last7th · 24d

1American Blend

Jockey Frank Reyes 30% career 3-for-42 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer John Jr Rednour 1-for-16 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: My Last Escapade 5-2, R4: Two Step Jake 15-1, R10: Sound Of Victory 7-2 · Trainer R1: K J 's Ransom 30-1, R1: Warshin Machine 15-1, R6: Nip N Tuck 30-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Changes barns, from Duane Wells to John Jr Rednour. A 35 is the high figure lately, short of the 68 par.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jul 23 (4F in :50.00), 1 work in 30d

M/L30-1

IQ28

TierOut

StyleNA

Last6th · 35d

At a glance

Market favourite #6 W W NOLAN (3-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
#6 W W NOLAN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (28.9% to their 31.5%).
#4 CHEATER — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 13.3%, the board 9.8%.
#8 DELONG SHOT — our #9 number, about right at the windows (11.9% to their 13.1%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: PASS — market efficient — no edge, pass

Longshot value: #4 CHEATER (7-1) — our fair 13.3% is above the morning line's 9.8%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #6 W W Nolan; pressure from #5 Richochet Rick, #10 Quiet Deputy; the shape helps #3 Incorporated, #7 Premor, #9 Macha Latte; and works against #1 American Blend, #2 Odin The Accident, #5 Richochet Rick.

Lead

6W W Nolan935Richochet Rick8510Quiet Deputy84

Press

4Cheater84

Stalk

8Delong Shot78

3Incorporated797Premor779Macha Latte73

No style yet

2Odin The Accident811American Blend75

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

W W Nolan

Richochet Rick

Cheater

Quiet Deputy

Delong Shot

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Macha Latte

Premor

Incorporated

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win

#4 Cheater

Top of the field by a clear 16-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.

Exacta — KEY

#4 Cheater OVER #9 Macha Latte · #6 W W Nolan · #5 Richochet Rick

Key #4 Cheater on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.

Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL

#4 Cheater / #9 Macha Latte · #6 W W Nolan · #5 Richochet Rick / #9 Macha Latte · #6 W W Nolan · #5 Richochet Rick · #2 Odin The Accident

#4 Cheater keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.

Superfecta — KEY

#4 Cheater / #9 Macha Latte · #6 W W Nolan · #5 Richochet Rick · #2 Odin The Accident / #9 Macha Latte · #6 W W Nolan · #5 Richochet Rick · #2 Odin The Accident / ALL or #9 Macha Latte · #6 W W Nolan · #5 Richochet Rick · #2 Odin The Accident

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

★ Value angle Live underneath: #7 Premor — the pace setup fits this one; use it in the 3rd/4th slots of your exotics for price.

Bet types offered at this track →

$1.00 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 3-4) / EXACTA

.50 CENT TRIFECTA (MINIMUM $1.00 WAGER)

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.