FP · RACE 10

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $10,000

Field

12 runners

Purse

$19,000

Post

6:15 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

IQ top

#11 · 90

PANELPASS · lean #8 AMERICAN CAUSE [MAX]see full panel →

Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 99.8

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #11 Sound Of Victory (a presser/stalker, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 82 · 80 · 78. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #12 Beyond Best at 10-1. Use #10 Governing Party in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1WIN

11Sound Of Victory

Jockey Frank Reyes 30% career 3-for-42 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Armando Hernandez 31% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: My Last Escapade 5-2, R3: American Blend 30-1, R4: Two Step Jake 15-1 · Trainer R4: Mr. Sweets 7-1, R9: Racarino 9-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 7, in :48.60. 2nd of 11 at 5F on Sep 12, in 1:00.60.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.60 on Oct 7 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

M/L7-2

IQ90

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last1st · 35d

2PLACE

12Beyond Best

Jockey Reynier Arrieta 32% career 7-for-67 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Mike Durham 25% career 2-for-23 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Gonna Pick Domenic 9-2, R4: Warrior Of Gold 7-2, R5: Beer Goggles 3-1, R6: Battle Cruiser 9-1 +3 more

CLASS UP

Jockey switch: J E Felix last out, Reynier Arrieta today. Dropped in well back early last out, 9th of 9 at the first call.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Shuffld brk; no menace last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 6d ago

M/L10-1

IQ84

TierLive

StyleS

Last9th · 35d

3SHOW

10Governing Party

Jockey Johanis Aranguren 14% career ★ 14-for-65 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Dennis Higgins 13% career 3-for-8 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 36

Also today · Jockey R1: Citizen Ex 9-2, R2: Free Choice 9-1, R4: Mr. Sweets 7-1, R5: Arose For Lily 5-1 +4 more

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. Turns back in 10 days.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: 3-w drew clear.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 40d ago

M/L3-1

IQ78

TierContender

StyleE/P

Last1st · 10d

4EXOTICS

8American Cause

Jockey A O Stanley 23% career 4-for-38 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Pat Clay 25% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%), #3 of 36

Also today · Jockey R1: Warshin Machine 15-1, R2: Game Santa 15-1, R3: Macha Latte 12-1, R7: Time To Toast 30-1 +2 more · Trainer R7: Big N Slow 6-1, R8: Code Of Conduct 6-1, R8: Epic Moment 30-1

Owns the highest recent figure here at 84. A O Stanley takes over from Alexander Bendezu in the saddle.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 28d back

M/L12-1

IQ77

TierLive

StyleP

Last5th · 17d

5EXOTICS

7Runningforcash

Jockey Brody Martinez 33% career ★ 23-for-76 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 20 · Trainer Ralph A Martinez 32% career ★ 8-for-29 on dirt this meet (28%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Position Our Luck 4-1, R2: Man Of Quality 4-1, R3: Cheater 7-1, R4: Tricky Moment 10-1 +5 more · Trainer R4: Gibran 30-1

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 65 to 71 to 80. Winner of an 8-horse $7,500 claiming race at BTP last time.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 6d ago

M/L9-1

IQ71

TierLive

StyleE/P

Last1st · 34d

9Lucky Boss

Jockey Harold Joseph Ortega 26% career 2-for-29 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Jada K Schlenk 18% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Lord Block 5-1, R2: Allkindsoftrouble 20-1, R3: Incorporated 15-1, R4: Caution Cardinal 10-1 +3 more · Trainer R8: True Effect 12-1

Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time. Class relief: $15,000 claiming last time, allowance optional claiming today.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 34 days ago

M/L30-1

IQ56

TierOut

StyleS

Last4th · 17d

3Gun It And Run It

Jockey Alvin Ortiz 37% career 2-for-45 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Robert Pompell 22% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: K J 's Ransom 30-1, R2: Ima Chunky Monkey 8-1, R3: Quiet Deputy 12-1, R4: Gibran 30-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: Position Our Luck 4-1

CLASS UP

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 67d back)

M/L12-1

IQ49

TierLongshot

StyleE

Last9th · 8d

1Patch O'Brien

Jockey Alexander Bendezu 35% career ★ 19-for-79 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 20 · Trainer Hugo Rodriguez 33% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Dandy Ruby 6-1, R2: Dang It Dan 5-1, R3: Odin The Accident 15-1, R4: Last Moon 5-1 +5 more · Trainer R6: Code Runner 6-5, R6: Euclid Avenue 6-1, R9: Smart Joker 5-1

WON LAST

Last start was a win, in an 8-horse $6,250 claiming race at FPK at 1.1-1. A step up in company: $6,250 claiming before, allowance optional claiming today.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 53d ago

M/L12-1

IQ47

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last1st · 28d

5Midnite Alex

Jockey E T Baird 24% career 3-for-14 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Jose G Rodriguez 33% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Lylah Renee 8-1 · Trainer R4: Larry The Poet 30-1, R9: Mon Ami Fuzzie 7-1

60D LAYOFFCLASS UP

Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 6 furlongs last time. Best recent figure is 72, well under the 82 par for this level.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Apr 28 (5F in 1:02.60), 1 work in 30d

M/L7-1

IQ44

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last9th · 87d

6Shady McGee

Jockey Javier Tavares 25% career 7-for-60 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Rhonda Thurman 17% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Will Conquer 6-1, R2: Tower Grove Park 8-1, R3: Delong Shot 5-1, R4: Cutlass King 9-1 +3 more · Trainer R4: Severance 30-1

WON LAST

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 72 against a 82 par. Figures are climbing: 66, 70, 72 over its last three.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 97 days ago

M/L20-1

IQ41

TierOut

StyleP

Last1st · 28d

4Spoonie

Jockey Israel Hernandez 38% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Ben Delong 28% career 3-for-18 on dirt this meet (17%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Stefan's Title 8-1, R4: Larry The Poet 30-1, R6: As One Does 15-1, R8: Safecracker Sue 20-1 +1 more · Trainer R3: Delong Shot 5-1, R6: As One Does 15-1, R7: Don't Tell Kim 6-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Won last out in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at FPK. Gets a new rider, Israel Hernandez replacing Brody Martinez.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Cmd 1/2; much best.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 26 (5F in 1:01.60), 0 works in 30d

M/L9-1

IQ37

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last1st · 14d

2Weslan

Jockey J E Felix 33% career 4-for-45 on dirt this meet (9%) · Trainer John Wainwright 18% career 2-for-26 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Then Now 'n Always 4-5, R6: Two Hearted 2-1, R7: Hobbs 30-1, R8: Fiery Songbird 6-5 +1 more · Trainer R3: Premor 7-1, R5: Coaly 10-1, R7: Hobbs 30-1

Moves up from $6,250 claiming to allowance optional claiming. Has moved up each time out, 65 to 71 to 74.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 59 days ago

M/L20-1

IQ28

TierOut

StyleE/P

Last5th · 10d

At a glance

Market favourite #10 GOVERNING PARTY (3-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
#10 GOVERNING PARTY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 20.1%).
#11 SOUND OF VICTORY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.8%).
#5 MIDNITE ALEX — our #9 number, about right at the windows (8.9% to their 10.0%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: PASS — market efficient — no edge, pass

No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #3 Gun It And Run It; pressure from #5 Midnite Alex, #10 Governing Party; the shape helps #1 Patch O'Brien, #2 Weslan, #4 Spoonie; and works against #3 Gun It And Run It.

Lead

3Gun It And Run It87

Press

5Midnite Alex8510Governing Party841Patch O'Brien832Weslan817Runningforcash8011Sound Of Victory794Spoonie73

Stalk

8American Cause806Shady McGee67

9Lucky Boss6512Beyond Best59

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Gun It And Run It

Midnite Alex

Governing Party

Patch O'Brien

Weslan

Runningforcash

American Cause

Sound Of Victory

Spoonie

Shady McGee

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Beyond Best

Lucky Boss

-2

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win / Place

#11 Sound Of Victory (place saver: #12 Beyond Best)

#11 Sound Of Victory rates the best; #12 Beyond Best the logical insurance if you want to be covered.

Exacta — BOX

#11 Sound Of Victory · #12 Beyond Best

Two standouts with little between them — box #11 Sound Of Victory and #12 Beyond Best both ways.

Trifecta — BOX

#11 Sound Of Victory · #12 Beyond Best · #10 Governing Party

Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.

Superfecta — KEY

#11 Sound Of Victory / #12 Beyond Best · #10 Governing Party · #8 American Cause · #7 Runningforcash / #12 Beyond Best · #10 Governing Party · #8 American Cause · #7 Runningforcash / ALL or #12 Beyond Best · #10 Governing Party · #8 American Cause · #7 Runningforcash

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

★ Value angle Live underneath: #8 American Cause — the pace setup fits this one; use it in the 3rd/4th slots of your exotics for price.

Bet types offered at this track →

EXACTA / 50 CENT TRIFECTA (MINIMUM $1.00 WAGER) / .10 CENT SUPERFECTA

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.