FP · RACE 7
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $20,000
Claiming $20,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.6
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #5 Spectacle (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 75 · 69 · 37. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #6 Frankie P at 1-1. Use #9 Rockdust in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Figures are climbing: 37, 69, 75 over its last three. Winner of a 9-horse $12,500 claiming race at IND last time.
Has won 2 of 4 going today's distance. Tops the field on speed figures, an 84 against 82 for the next best.
Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Jun 27, in :39.00. Best recent figure is 77, well under the 85 par for this level.
Moves up from $10,000 claiming to allowance optional claiming. Won last out in a 9-horse $10,000 claiming race at FPK.
Gets a new rider, A O Stanley replacing Reynier Arrieta. Led at the first call last time.
2nd last time, 2¼ lengths back, in a field of 6. A 74 is the high figure lately, short of the 85 par.
Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Raises its level, $15,000 claiming last time and allowance optional claiming now.
Returns from a 143-day break. Best recent figure is 71, well under the 85 par for this level.
147 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. A step up in company: $5,000 claiming before, allowance optional claiming today.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 FRANKIE P (1-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #6 FRANKIE P — our #2 number, about right at the windows (35.6% to their 39.3%).
- #9 ROCKDUST — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.4% to their 15.7%).
- #5 SPECTACLE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (12.5% to their 11.2%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #8 TIME TO TOAST (30-1) — our fair 3.3% is above the morning line's 2.5%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Frankie P; pressure from #8 Time To Toast, #5 Spectacle; the shape helps #1 Hobbs, #3 Don't Tell Kim, #4 Harley'srunawaykid; and works against #6 Frankie P, #8 Time To Toast.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Place / Show
#5 Spectacle · #6 Frankie P · #9 Rockdust
Top trio is bunched — backing one to hit the board is sounder than a flat win bet.
Exacta — BOX
#5 Spectacle · #6 Frankie P · #9 Rockdust
Top three are close — a 3-horse box covers the likely 1-2 in any order.
Trifecta — BOX
#5 Spectacle · #6 Frankie P · #9 Rockdust
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#5 Spectacle / #6 Frankie P · #9 Rockdust · #7 Big N Slow · #8 Time To Toast / #6 Frankie P · #9 Rockdust · #7 Big N Slow · #8 Time To Toast / ALL or #6 Frankie P · #9 Rockdust · #7 Big N Slow · #8 Time To Toast
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
$1.00 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) / EXACTA
.50 CENT TRIFECTA (MINIMUM $1.00 WAGER)