FP · RACE 4

UPCOMING

Claiming $5,000

Field

12 runners

Purse

$10,600

Post

3:45 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

IQ top

#6 · 92

PANELPASS · lean #3 LARRY THE POET [MAX]see full panel →

Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won four races lifetime.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.6

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #6 Warrior Of Gold (early speed, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 77 · 73 · 79. Backup is #12 Fiveo'clockcharlie at 5-2. Use #8 Caution Cardinal in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Speed Duel: Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

1WIN

6Warrior Of Gold

Jockey Reynier Arrieta 32% career 7-for-67 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer James M Watkins 35% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%)

Also today · Jockey R2: Gonna Pick Domenic 9-2, R5: Beer Goggles 3-1, R6: Battle Cruiser 9-1, R7: Rockdust 4-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: Fiveo'clockcharlie 5-2, R7: Spectacle 6-1, R8: Spicy Cantaloupe 12-1, R9: Call Me Drossel 12-1

◆ LIVE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFFCLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Was running in $10,000 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. A 63-day gap since its last race.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on May 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

M/L7-2

IQ92

TierContender

StyleE

Last4th · 63d

2PLACE

12Fiveo'clockcharlie

Jockey T Wales 34% career 0-for-14 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer James M Watkins 35% career 3-for-33 on dirt this meet (9%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R7: Spectacle 6-1 · Trainer this race: Warrior Of Gold 7-2, R7: Spectacle 6-1, R8: Spicy Cantaloupe 12-1, R9: Call Me Drossel 12-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 81. A big drop, optional claiming to $5,000 claiming, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Awk brk; press; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 2 (4F in :48.00), 0 works in 30d

M/L5-2

IQ83

TierContender

StyleE

Last8th · 17d

3SHOW

8Caution Cardinal

Jockey Harold Joseph Ortega 26% career 2-for-29 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Cc Perkinson 19% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Lord Block 5-1, R2: Allkindsoftrouble 20-1, R3: Incorporated 15-1, R7: Harley'srunawaykid 30-1 +3 more · Trainer R6: Battle Cruiser 9-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Class relief: allowance last time, $5,000 claiming today. The Oct 21 work, 4F in :48.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 21; 1 work in 30d

M/L10-1

IQ82

TierLive

StyleE

Last9th · 24d

4EXOTICS

2Last Moon

Jockey Alexander Bendezu 35% career ★ 19-for-79 on dirt this meet (24%), #2 of 20 · Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez 33% career ★ 9-for-26 on dirt this meet (35%), #2 of 36 ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Dandy Ruby 6-1, R2: Dang It Dan 5-1, R3: Odin The Accident 15-1, R5: Boyce's Bandita 30-1 +5 more · Trainer R9: Twirling Roses 5-1

Figures are climbing: 67, 72, 77 over its last three. Finished 2nd in an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at FPK, beaten ½ length.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 45d ago

M/L5-1

IQ75

TierLive

StyleE

Last2nd · 17d

5EXOTICS

3Larry The Poet

Jockey Israel Hernandez 38% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Jose G Rodriguez 33% career 1-for-17 on dirt this meet (6%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Stefan's Title 8-1, R6: As One Does 15-1, R8: Safecracker Sue 20-1, R9: Tapit Sam 30-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Mon Ami Fuzzie 7-1, R10: Midnite Alex 7-1

CLASS DROP

Trending the wrong way on speed, 62 to 48 to 43. Best recent figure of 74 sits right around the 77 par.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bump foe brk; 3w turn. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 45d back)

M/L30-1

IQ75

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last7th · 17d

5Mr. Sweets

Jockey Johanis Aranguren 14% career ★ 14-for-65 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Armando Hernandez 31% career 2-for-10 on dirt this meet (20%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Citizen Ex 9-2, R2: Free Choice 9-1, R5: Arose For Lily 5-1, R6: Nip N Tuck 30-1 +4 more · Trainer R9: Racarino 9-1, R10: Sound Of Victory 7-2

Worked 4F in :48.40 on Feb 1, 2nd of 49 at the distance. 3rd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 8.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 70 days ago

M/L7-1

IQ74

TierLive

StyleP

Last3rd · 17d

11Severance

Jockey Cory Orm 28% career 1-for-19 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Rhonda Thurman 17% career 2-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Brahms Jr. 30-1, R3: Richochet Rick 6-1, R9: Call Me Drossel 12-1 · Trainer R10: Shady McGee 20-1

60D LAYOFF

Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile. Winless in 7 starts at this distance.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 6d ago

M/L30-1

IQ70

TierLongshot

StyleS

Last2nd · 77d

4Tricky Moment

Jockey Brody Martinez 33% career ★ 23-for-76 on dirt this meet (30%), #1 of 20 · Trainer Dawn Martin 28% career 1-for-6 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Position Our Luck 4-1, R2: Man Of Quality 4-1, R3: Cheater 7-1, R5: Hanabi 15-1 +5 more · Trainer R2: Man Of Quality 4-1

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 65 against a 77 par. Sheds 7 pounds from its last start.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 26d ago

M/L10-1

IQ61

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last5th · 17d

10Cutlass King

Jockey Javier Tavares 25% career 7-for-60 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Harry E Lynch 36% career 2-for-41 on dirt this meet (5%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Will Conquer 6-1, R2: Tower Grove Park 8-1, R3: Delong Shot 5-1, R6: Euclid Avenue 6-1 +3 more · Trainer R7: Harley'srunawaykid 30-1, R9: Heartbreak Game 10-1

Carries 124 pounds, 7 more than last time. Drops from allowance to $5,000 claiming.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

TROUBLED TRIP 3-5w turn; no menace last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 67d ago

M/L9-1

IQ60

TierLongshot

StyleE/P

Last8th · 24d

1Two Step Jake

Jockey Frank Reyes 30% career 3-for-42 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Jessica Jelinski 14% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: My Last Escapade 5-2, R3: American Blend 30-1, R10: Sound Of Victory 7-2

Beaten a head for 2nd in a 6-horse $5,000 claiming race at FPK. Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

TROUBLED TRIP Bid 5w1/8; turned away last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 28 (4F in :51.00), 1 work in 30d

M/L15-1

IQ48

TierOut

StyleE/P

Last2nd · 38d

9Gibran

Jockey Alvin Ortiz 37% career 2-for-45 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Ralph A Martinez 32% career ★ 8-for-29 on dirt this meet (28%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: K J 's Ransom 30-1, R2: Ima Chunky Monkey 8-1, R3: Quiet Deputy 12-1, R8: Show Pam 15-1 +2 more · Trainer R10: Runningforcash 9-1

3rd of 20 at 4F on Sep 4, in :48.60. Last out was 6th, 3½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse $5,000 claiming race at FPK.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 6d ago

M/L30-1

IQ48

TierOut

StyleE

Last6th · 35d

7Grazen Gator

Jockey Javier Diego 29% career 2-for-34 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Ricardo Jaime 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Sneaky Feet 15-1, R3: Premor 7-1, R5: Coaly 10-1, R7: Nations Dream 20-1 +1 more

0 for 8 at today's distance. Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago

M/L30-1

IQ28

TierOut

StyleP

Last5th · 17d

At a glance

Market favourite #12 FIVEO'CLOCKCHARLIE (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
#12 FIVEO'CLOCKCHARLIE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.3% to their 22.4%).
#6 WARRIOR OF GOLD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.5%).
#2 LAST MOON — our #4 number, about right at the windows (12.5% to their 13.1%).

Value read · analysis, not advice

Verdict: LONGSHOT-VALUE — #3 LARRY THE POET — convergence longshot: fair 3.1% over market 2.5% with HOT_CONNECTIONS

Longshot value: #3 LARRY THE POET (30-1) — our fair 3.1% is above the morning line's 2.5%; supported by: top barn (33%) + jockey (38%) at 30-1 — proven edge band (ML 3+)

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Last Moon; pressure from #6 Warrior Of Gold, #12 Fiveo'clockcharlie; the shape helps #11 Severance; and works against #2 Last Moon, #6 Warrior Of Gold, #8 Caution Cardinal.

Lead

2Last Moon946Warrior Of Gold9312Fiveo'clockcharlie928Caution Cardinal919Gibran89

Press

10Cutlass King894Tricky Moment853Larry The Poet841Two Step Jake73

Stalk

5Mr. Sweets897Grazen Gator84

11Severance65

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Last Moon

Warrior Of Gold

Fiveo'clockcharlie

Caution Cardinal

Mr. Sweets

Gibran

Cutlass King

Tricky Moment

Larry The Poet

Grazen Gator

Two Step Jake

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Severance

How to play it

How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.

Win

#6 Warrior Of Gold

Top of the field by a clear 9-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.

Exacta — KEY

#6 Warrior Of Gold OVER #12 Fiveo'clockcharlie · #8 Caution Cardinal · #2 Last Moon

Key #6 Warrior Of Gold on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.

Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL

#6 Warrior Of Gold / #12 Fiveo'clockcharlie · #8 Caution Cardinal · #2 Last Moon / #12 Fiveo'clockcharlie · #8 Caution Cardinal · #2 Last Moon · #3 Larry The Poet

#6 Warrior Of Gold keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.

Superfecta — KEY

#6 Warrior Of Gold / #12 Fiveo'clockcharlie · #8 Caution Cardinal · #2 Last Moon · #3 Larry The Poet / #12 Fiveo'clockcharlie · #8 Caution Cardinal · #2 Last Moon · #3 Larry The Poet / ALL or #12 Fiveo'clockcharlie · #8 Caution Cardinal · #2 Last Moon · #3 Larry The Poet

Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.

★ Value angle Live underneath: #11 Severance — the pace setup fits this one; use it in the 3rd/4th slots of your exotics for price.

Bet types offered at this track →

$1.00 DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 4-5) / EXACTA

.50 CENT TRIFECTA (MINIMUM $1.00 WAGER)

See the Wager Logic primer for takeout + hit-rate context on each bet type. We give the structure; the wagering decision and amount are yours.