FP · RACE 9
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.6
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #4 Mon Ami Fuzzie (a closer, M/L 7-1). Recent figures: 71 · 68 · 68. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Khozan's Valentine at 9-2. Use #2 Twirling Roses in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Cuts back from 1 1/16 miles to 6 furlongs. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Apr 11 (:48.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
Tops the field on speed figures, an 84 against 83 for the next best. Winner of an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at FPK last time.
Last out was 2nd, a head behind the winner, in an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at FPK. Figures are climbing: 66, 74, 78 over its last three.
Hugo Rodriguez takes over the training from James M Watkins. Has moved up each time out, 69 to 79 to 80.
Drops from allowance to $5,000 claiming. Has moved up each time out, 66 to 75 to 78.
Has moved up each time out, 58 to 62 to 71. Finished 2nd in an 11-horse $4,000 claiming race at FPK, beaten ½ length.
A step up in company: $4,000 claiming before, $5,000 claiming today. An 83 in its last five clears the 77 par for this level.
A 49-day gap since its last race. 3rd of 14 at 4F on May 28, in :48.00.
A 68 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par. Worked 4F in :48.40 on Jul 10, 2nd of 14 at the distance.
Sheds 7 pounds from its last start. 4th last time, 8 lengths back, in a field of 8.
Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time. Raises its level, $4,000 claiming last time and $5,000 claiming now.
New trainer: Marvel Straub had it last time, Dennis Hornbostel now. Back to 6 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race.
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 KHOZAN'S VALENTINE (9-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #6 KHOZAN'S VALENTINE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.6% to their 14.5%).
- #2 TWIRLING ROSES — our #3 number, about right at the windows (13.0% to their 13.3%).
- #3 SMART JOKER — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.0% to their 13.3%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #9 All About Tonite; pressure from #10 Call Me Drossel, #3 Smart Joker; the shape helps #1 Racarino, #2 Twirling Roses, #3 Smart Joker; and works against #9 All About Tonite, #10 Call Me Drossel.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#4 Mon Ami Fuzzie
Top of the field by a clear 12-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#4 Mon Ami Fuzzie OVER #6 Khozan's Valentine · #2 Twirling Roses · #3 Smart Joker
Key #4 Mon Ami Fuzzie on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#4 Mon Ami Fuzzie / #6 Khozan's Valentine · #2 Twirling Roses · #3 Smart Joker / #6 Khozan's Valentine · #2 Twirling Roses · #3 Smart Joker · #5 Purple Octopus
#4 Mon Ami Fuzzie keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Superfecta — KEY
#4 Mon Ami Fuzzie / #6 Khozan's Valentine · #2 Twirling Roses · #3 Smart Joker · #5 Purple Octopus / #6 Khozan's Valentine · #2 Twirling Roses · #3 Smart Joker · #5 Purple Octopus / ALL or #6 Khozan's Valentine · #2 Twirling Roses · #3 Smart Joker · #5 Purple Octopus
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
$1.00 LATE DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 9-10) / EXACTA
.50 CENT TRIFECTA(MINIMUM $1.00 WAGER) / .10 CENT SUPERFECTA