Pick sheet

Race 105:24 PM Clm 17500b

6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Cossatot, is 28% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #7 Cossatot ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #1 ▼▼ Big drop -31 ↕ Up and down 53–85

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer G. Jackson · KEE 5: 2-1-0 · Dist 3: 1-1-0 · best fig at 6f dirt 85 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 35k b	6th/6 -11L	53	5.5-1	b L	Chased; gave way;
8/30	GP	6f D	Clm 17k n2x	Won/7	85	1.8-1	b L	3wd move; held sway
6/26	GP	6f D	Clm 17k n2x	2nd/5	84	3.3-1	b L	Pressured pace;gamely

Case: Last out 6th/6 -11L in the Clm35000b at GP. Last Brisnet figures 53-85-84. Best at today's distance 85. 1-for-3 at the distance. 2-for-5 at Gulfstream Park. G. Jackson / L. Reyes.

Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Contender #3 Forty Love ML 2-1 Fair 3-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -13 ★ Best at 6f dirt: 86

Jockey N. Juarez · Trainer S. Hernandez · Dist 9: 1-2-2 · best fig at 6f dirt 86 · 60 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/1	PID	6f D	Clm 25k bc	3rd/5 -2½L	70	1.4-1	L	Held up turn;ran-on
8/2	PRM	6f D	Alw s	3rd/7 -6½L	85	5.1-1	LB	In back;3w;surged late
7/5	ELP	6f D	Clm 30k b	2nd/5 by hd	86	9.0-1	L	Circled 4p;dueled;hung

Case: Last out 3rd in the Clm25000bc at PID. Last Brisnet figures 70-85-86. Best at today's distance 86. 1-for-9 at the distance. S. Hernandez / N. Juarez.

Knock: Never raced at Gulfstream Park. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #1 Wine Candy ML 9-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +14 ↕ Up and down 47–81 Last out won in the Clm10000bv at GP. Last Brisnet figures 81-77-47. Best at today's distance 84. 1-for-4 at the distance. 3-for-7 at Gulfstream Park. S. Pulgarin / J. Morelos. Knock: Nothing glaring on paper.

Jockey J. Morelos · Trainer S. Pulgarin · KEE 7: 3-0-2 · Dist 4: 1-0-1 · best fig at 6f dirt 84 · 48 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	GP	6f D	Clm 10k bv	Won/7	81	0.7-1	b L	Forced pace; held sway
8/8	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k n2lc	Won/11	77	1.4-1	b L	Sent;dug in;held on
7/13	GP	6f D	Clm 30k n2l	7th/7 -9½L	47	1.1-1	L	Inside; steadied 5/16

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #7 · B #1, #4, #5 · C #6

Angles: #2 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 84) · #4 Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 85 · #5 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #6 Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 85

R10 Gulfstream Park · Claiming $17,500

5:24 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $28,000 · 7 runners5:24 PM · 6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $28K · Claiming $17,500

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Wine CandyJ. Morelos · S. PulgarinMorelos · PulgarinB81 77 47▲▲+14↕@trip 849-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +1481 77 47 ↕@trip 84B3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–81 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 77 47

Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-51 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Sebastian Pulgarin 13% career 4-for-11 on dirt this meet (36%), #3 of 31

Also today · Jockey R1: Bandari 3-1, R2: Freedom Street 6-1, R3: Lighting Arrow 6-1, R4: Friolento 12-1 +3 more · Trainer R4: Friolento 12-1

WON LAST5/7 board here

Last start was a win, in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at GP at 0.7-1. A step up in company: $10,000 claiming before, $17,500 claiming today.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 5 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 1 here: 39 wins, 115 top-3 in 273 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	GP	6f D	Clm 10k bv	Won/7	81	0.7-1	b L	Forced pace; held sway
8/8	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k n2lc	Won/11	77	1.4-1	b L	Sent;dug in;held on
7/13	GP	6f D	Clm 30k n2l	7th/7 -9½L	47	1.1-1	L	Inside; steadied 5/16

2Lawler▼R. Hughes · R. SierraHughes · SierraA73 84 84▼-4↕@trip 843-1Fair 5-117%▼ Down -473 84 84 ↕@trip 84A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 84)
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 84 84
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 84)
Jockey Rasheed Hughes 34% career 1-for-15 on dirt this meet (7%) · Trainer Ruben Sierra 23% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R5: Love Like Lucy 3-1, R9: City Minute 2-1
CLASS DROP
Switches from turf to dirt. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Sep 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 GP 1m T OC 35k 6th/7 -4½L 73 16-1 b L Track;svd gnd;tired
6/19 GP 5½f D OC 75k n1x 3rd/6 -4½L 84 13-1 b L Inside; evenly
5/30 GP 6f D Clm 25k b Won/5 84 2.5-1 b L Duel;2p;drew off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	1m T	OC 35k	6th/7 -4½L	73	16-1	b L	Track;svd gnd;tired
6/19	GP	5½f D	OC 75k n1x	3rd/6 -4½L	84	13-1	b L	Inside; evenly
5/30	GP	6f D	Clm 25k b	Won/5	84	2.5-1	b L	Duel;2p;drew off

3Forty Love★N. Juarez · S. HernandezJuarez · HernandezA70 85 86▼▼-13@trip 862-1Fair 3-126%▼▼ Big drop -1370 85 86@trip 86A★ Best at the trip 862

Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 85 86

★ Best at the trip 86

Jockey Nik Juarez 30% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Sandino R Hernandez 31% career 2-for-3 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Etruscan Warrior 9-2, R5: Tizasweetlady 10-1, R11: Justin Smiles 20-1

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/17 from post 3

Changes barns, from William N Martin to Sandino R Hernandez. Owns the highest recent figure here at 86.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.40 on Oct 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Nik Juarez has never won from post 3 here (1 top-3 in 17 rides) · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/1	PID	6f D	Clm 25k bc	3rd/5 -2½L	70	1.4-1	L	Held up turn;ran-on
8/2	PRM	6f D	Alw s	3rd/7 -6½L	85	5.1-1	LB	In back;3w;surged late
7/5	ELP	6f D	Clm 30k b	2nd/5 by hd	86	9.0-1	L	Circled 4p;dueled;hung

4Kazooza▼J. Ocasio · G. ArscottOcasio · ArscottB74 74 69▲▲+11↕@trip 7410-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +1174 74 69 ↕@trip 74B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 85
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 74 69
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 85
Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Garrett W Arscott 14% career 2-for-9 on dirt this meet (22%)
Also today · Jockey R3: Tom B The Goat 9-2, R5: Mywifeknowsitall 20-1, R7: Ready To Rage 12-1
CLASS DROPWON LAST
Raises its level, $8,000 claiming last time and $17,500 claiming now. Won last out in a 5-horse $8,000 claiming race at GP.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 133 days ago
RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Jonathan Ocasio from post 4 here: 10 wins, 43 top-3 in 111 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 GP 5½f D Clm 10k b Won/5 74 3.3-1 L Vied inside; drew clr
9/6 GP 6f D Clm 17k b 4th/5 -5L 74 29-1 L Rail trip; no rally
8/23 GP 1m D Clm 10k b 4th/5 -2L 69 16-1 L Pace;headed;gave way
5Cross Haste▼S. Leon · D. NunnLeon · NunnB65 76 79▼-7@trip 8310-1Fair 20-14%▼ Down -765 76 79@trip 83B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 76 79
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Douglas Nunn 23% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Slew Vinbiz 4-1, R2: Ky's Law 10-1, R3: Henry's Buddy 9-5, R7: Indian Pharoah 8-1 +2 more
Trending the wrong way on speed, 79 to 76 to 65. Douglas Nunn takes over the training from Victor Russo.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 61d back)
RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Sonny Leon from post 5 here: 5 wins, 20 top-3 in 63 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 GP 5½f D Clm 6k c 6th/7 -7½L 65 7.1-1 L Chase;2p;tired
10/4 GP 6f D Clm 6k c 3rd/7 -3L 76 3.5-1 L 5w into lane; rallied
9/19 GP 5f D Clm 10k 4th/6 -4½L 79 18-1 L Failed to menace;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	GP	5½f D	Clm 10k b	Won/5	74	3.3-1	L	Vied inside; drew clr
9/6	GP	6f D	Clm 17k b	4th/5 -5L	74	29-1	L	Rail trip; no rally
8/23	GP	1m D	Clm 10k b	4th/5 -2L	69	16-1	L	Pace;headed;gave way

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	GP	5½f D	Clm 6k c	6th/7 -7½L	65	7.1-1	L	Chase;2p;tired
10/4	GP	6f D	Clm 6k c	3rd/7 -3L	76	3.5-1	L	5w into lane; rallied
9/19	GP	5f D	Clm 10k	4th/6 -4½L	79	18-1	L	Failed to menace;

6American Tact▼Y. Torres · M. McGoeyTorres · McGoeyC63 74 64▼-5@trip 6320-1<1%▼ Down -563 74 64@trip 63C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 85

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 74 64

▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 85

Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Monica McGoey 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: New Friend 6-1, R6: Starship Stella 5-2, R9: Brutally Honest 6-1

CLASS DROP0/4 board here

Best recent figure is 74, well under the 85 par for this level. Moves up from $10,000 claiming to $17,500 claiming.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 15d ago

RECORD Not on the board in 4 starts here

RECORD Yolber Torres from post 6 here: 8 wins, 37 top-3 in 106 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/13	GP	6f D	Clm 10k b	6th/7 -5¼L	63	14-1	b L	Never menaced
7/25	EVD	7f D	Clm 20k n2l	Won/8 by hd	74	17-1	b L	Steady urging; all out
6/26	EVD	6½f D	Clm 5k n2l	2nd/11 -3L	64	27-1	b L	Stumble brk;6w turn

7CossatotL. Reyes · G. JacksonReyes · JacksonA53 85 84▼▼-31↕@trip 855-2Fair 5-228%▼▼ Big drop -3153 85 84 ↕@trip 85A1

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -31 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 85 84

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career 10-for-68 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Gary G Jackson 31% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R2: Deuxieme Chance 9-5, R3: Fifteen Hundred R 5-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2 +5 more · Trainer R5: Mywifeknowsitall 20-1

CLASS UP3/5 board here

Back to 6 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. A big drop, $35,000 claiming to $17,500 claiming, and worth asking why.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 7 here: 44 wins, 132 top-3 in 299 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 35k b	6th/6 -11L	53	5.5-1	b L	Chased; gave way;
8/30	GP	6f D	Clm 17k n2x	Won/7	85	1.8-1	b L	3wd move; held sway
6/26	GP	6f D	Clm 17k n2x	2nd/5	84	3.3-1	b L	Pressured pace;gamely

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 10

UPCOMING

Claiming $17,500

Field

7 runners

Purse

$28,000

Post

5:24 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#7 · 28%

Claiming $17,500, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.12

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #7 Cossatot (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 53 · 85 · 84. Backup is #3 Forty Love at 2-1. Use #1 Wine Candy in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 FORTY LOVE (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#3 FORTY LOVE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (26.1% to their 26.0%).
#7 COSSATOT — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.3% to their 22.3%).
#2 LAWLER — our #4 number, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 19.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#1 WINE CANDY — we make it 16.6%, the morning line works out to 14.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #5 Cross Haste; pressure from #1 Wine Candy, #4 Kazooza; the shape helps #1 Wine Candy, #2 Lawler, #4 Kazooza; and works against #5 Cross Haste.

Lead

5Cross Haste91

Press

1Wine Candy964Kazooza917Cossatot80

Stalk

2Lawler86

6American Tact863Forty Love80

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Wine Candy

Kazooza

Cross Haste

Lawler

Cossatot

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

American Tact

Forty Love

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Bet types

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$1 COAST TO COAST PICK 5

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