Pick sheet

Race 312:58 PM Md 12500

1 1/16 Mi · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Henry's Buddy, is 44% to win (morning line implies 39%). Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #3 Henry's Buddy ML 9-5 Fair 6-5 Model #1 ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best ▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey S. Leon · Trainer M. Casse · KEE 4: 0-2-0 · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	1m D	MCL 12k	2nd/5 -2L	69	2.1-1	L	Bid3/8;2p;chase on
9/18	GP	1m D	MCL 12k	2nd/6 -4L	62	1.0-1	L	Track;3p;no match
8/20	CNL	1m D	MCL 12k	2nd/12 -2L	68	2.3-1	L	3-4w turn;ridden 7/16

Case: Last out 2nd in the Md12500 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 69-62-68. 0-for-4 at Gulfstream Park. M. Casse / S. Leon.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1m).

Contender #6 Rudi ML 3-1 Fair 2-1 Model #2 ► Steady

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer A. Sano · KEE 9: 0-3-3 · Dist 9: 0-3-3 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 66 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	3rd/8 -3L	66	2.7-1	L	2p;bid1/4;late gain
9/20	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	2nd/8 -½L	63	2.3-1	L	Rear brk;gaining;miss
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	2nd/6 -½L	75	8.0-1	L	4wd move; led;held 2nd

Case: Last out 3rd in the Md12500 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 66-63-75. Best at today's distance 66. 0-for-9 at the distance. 0-for-9 at Gulfstream Park. A. Sano / D. Herrera.

Knock: 0-for-9 at the distance.

Use #5 Lighting Arrow ML 6-1 Fair 8-1 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best ▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77 Last out 5th/8 -3L in the Md12500 at GP. Last Brisnet figures 66-61-49. Best at today's distance 61. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-3 at Gulfstream Park. R. Garcia / J. Morelos. Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey J. Morelos · Trainer R. Garcia · KEE 3: 0-0-1 · Dist 2: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1 1/16 dirt 61 · 21 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	5th/8 -3L	66	16-1	L	Outside;3-4p;improved
5/30	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	4th/8 -5½L	61	15-1	L	Prompted 2p-ins;faded
3/13	TAM	7f D	MCL 16k	5th/8 -7L	49	2.4-1	L	Bmp brk;track;3p;wkn

★ Distance horse: #7 Holy Cow (8-1) has the best figure in the field at 1 1/16 dirt: 68 from 4 tries, record at the distance 7: 0-1-1. Not one of our picks.

Narrowing the field: A #3, #4, #6 · B #2, #5, #7 · C #1

Angles: #1 Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #2 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #3 Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #5 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77 · #7 Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 77

R3 Gulfstream Park · Maiden Claiming $12,500

12:58 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Dirt · $25,000 · 5 runners (2 out)12:58 PM · 1 1/16m Dirt · 5 runners (2 out)

Official $25K · Maiden Claiming $12,500

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #7 Holy Cow (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 68 from 4 tries. Not in our top three.

1Rockin Empire▼Ran 5thJ. Santos · B. LuskSantos · LuskC47 58 55▼-615-1Fair 30-14%▼ Down -647 58 55C▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 47 58 55

▼ Best fig 58 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Brian R Lusk 22% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Emerging Leader 4-1, R4: Blue Slide Park 6-1, R5: Hidden Agenda 30-1, R6: Swell 20-1 +2 more

Finished 6th in a 6-horse maiden claiming $12,500 race at GP, beaten 10 lengths. A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	GP	1m D	MCL 12k	6th/6 -10L	47	16-1	L	Svd gnd;empty
9/6	CNL	1 1/16 T	rMd16000	9th/12 -11L	58	32-1	L	Reluctant load;improvd
7/12	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	2nd/7 -8½L	55	16-1	L	3-4w bid;rally place

2Tom B the Goat▼J. Ocasio · M. CriolloOcasio · CriolloB66 61 58▲+7≡@trip 619-2<1%▲ Up +7 · career best66 61 58 ≡@trip 61B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 58–66 · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 61 58

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Manuel Criollo 14% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R5: Mywifeknowsitall 20-1, R7: Ready To Rage 12-1, R10: Kazooza 10-1

Has moved up each time out, 58 to 61 to 66. Best recent figure is 66, well under the 77 par for this level.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 62d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Jonathan Ocasio from post 2 here: 9 wins, 34 top-3 in 76 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	2nd/8	66	19-1	b L	Led;svd gnd;caught
9/20	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	6th/8 by hd	61	12-1	b L	Set press pace; faded
9/11	GP	5f D	MCL 25k	7th/8 -10L	58	32-1	b L	Trailed;3p;no bid

3Henry's Buddy▼Ran 2ndS. Leon · M. CasseLeon · CasseA69 62 68▲▲+89-5Fair 6-544%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best69 62 68A▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 771
Card model 44% · Fair odds 6-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 69 62 68
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 77
Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Slew Vinbiz 4-1, R2: Ky's Law 10-1, R7: Indian Pharoah 8-1, R8: Velociraptor 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R9: Brutally Honest 6-1, R11: Behold The King 6-1
★ FASTEST WORKJky 13/80 from post 3
Still looking for the first win after 9 starts. 2nd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 5.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 50d back)
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 4 starts here
RECORD Sonny Leon from post 3 here: 13 wins, 33 top-3 in 80 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 GP 1m D MCL 12k 2nd/5 -2L 69 2.1-1 L Bid3/8;2p;chase on
9/18 GP 1m D MCL 12k 2nd/6 -4L 62 1.0-1 L Track;3p;no match
8/20 CNL 1m D MCL 12k 2nd/12 -2L 68 2.3-1 L 3-4w turn;ridden 7/16

4Fifteen Hundred RL. Reyes · P. GarciaReyes · GarciaA76 66 63▲▲+9@trip 635-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best76 66 63@trip 63A

Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 66 63

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career 10-for-68 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Pedro R Garcia 32% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R2: Deuxieme Chance 9-5, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Cipresa 9-2 +5 more · Trainer R4: Blue Slide Park 6-1

Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Was running in maiden claiming $16,000; today's maiden claiming $12,500 is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 72d back)

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 4 here: 43 wins, 143 top-3 in 329 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	GP	1 1/16 T	MCL 17k	6th/10 -3¾L	76	17-1	L	2p1st;3p2nd;no kick
10/10	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	4th/8 -1½L	66	4.2-1	b L	Stalk;2-3p;chase on
9/20	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	3rd/8	63	3.8-1	b L	Vied str;outfin;good

5Lighting Arrow▼Ran 3rdJ. Morelos · R. GarciaMorelos · GarciaB66 61 49▲▲+8@trip 616-1Fair 8-111%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best66 61 49@trip 61B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 773

Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 61 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 61 49

▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 77

Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-51 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Rodolfo Garcia 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Bandari 3-1, R2: Freedom Street 6-1, R4: Friolento 12-1, R6: Bashfully 5-1 +3 more

0/3 board here

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 77 par. Figures are climbing: 49, 61, 66 over its last three.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)

RECORD Not on the board in 3 starts here

RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 5 here: 25 wins, 84 top-3 in 252 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	5th/8 -3L	66	16-1	L	Outside;3-4p;improved
5/30	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	4th/8 -5½L	61	15-1	L	Prompted 2p-ins;faded
3/13	TAM	7f D	MCL 16k	5th/8 -7L	49	2.4-1	L	Bmp brk;track;3p;wkn

6RudiRan 1stD. Herrera · A. SanoHerrera · SanoA66 63 75►@trip 663-1Fair 2-132%► Steady66 63 75@trip 66A2

Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 66 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 63 75

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 9-for-66 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career 2-for-19 on dirt this meet (11%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Fight And Pray 6-1, R2: Golden Ambition 9-2, R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5, R5: Chance To Party 12-1 +4 more · Trainer R1: Fight And Pray 6-1, R9: Champagne Brunch 30-1

5/10 board here

0 for 9 at today's distance. Worked 5F in 1:01.00 on Jul 25, 2nd of 17 at the distance.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 6 here: 12 wins, 37 top-3 in 68 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	3rd/8 -3L	66	2.7-1	L	2p;bid1/4;late gain
9/20	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	2nd/8 -½L	63	2.3-1	L	Rear brk;gaining;miss
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	2nd/6 -½L	75	8.0-1	L	4wd move; led;held 2nd

7Holy Cow▼★LSRan 4thF. Vasquez Jr. · B. TessoreVasquez Jr. · TessoreB63 61 68▼-3≡@trip 688-1Fair 10-110%▼ Down -363 61 68 ≡@trip 68B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 77★ Best at the trip 68LS

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 61–68 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 61 68

▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 77★ Best at the trip 68LS

Longshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Felix Jr Vasquez 33% career 1-for-3 on dirt this meet · Trainer Bruno Tessore 17% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet

★ FASTEST WORK

Sheds 10 pounds from its last start. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 19 (:46.80), a sign it is training forwardly.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 19 (4F in :46.80), 1 work in 30d

RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	7th/8 -3¼L	63	7.4-1	L	Prsd pc;2p;faded
9/20	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	4th/8 -1¼L	61	4.1-1	L	Pressed pace; weaken
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	MCL 12k	4th/6 -2½L	68	5.6-1	L	Pace; headed 1/4;faded

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

● Official result

$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below

Our top pick, #3 Henry's Buddy, finished 2nd.

1st6RudiWin$4.20Place$2.40Show$2.10Our #2

2nd3Henry's BuddyWin—Place$3.00Show$2.10Our #1

3rd5Lighting ArrowWin—Place—Show$2.40Our #3

4th7Holy CowOur #4

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 3

OFFICIAL

Maiden Claiming $12,500

Field

7 runners

Purse

$25,000

Post

12:58 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#3 · 44%

Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.

Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 99.91

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #3 Henry's Buddy (a presser/stalker, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 69 · 62 · 68. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #6 Rudi at 3-1. Use #5 Lighting Arrow in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

● OUTCOME · 2ND

Top pick Henry's Buddy ran 2nd · Rudi won (our #2)

What worked

✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
✓ Winner came from our top 3 (our #2)
✓ Our top 3 finished 2nd, 1st, 3rd

TBredIQ ranking → finish

#1	#3 HENRY'S BUDDY	2nd
#2	#6 RUDI	1st
#3	#5 LIGHTING ARROW	3rd
#4	#7 HOLY COW	4th
#5	#1 ROCKIN EMPIRE	5th

Actual finish

1st	#6 Rudi	our #2
2nd	#3 Henry's Buddy	our #1
3rd	#5 Lighting Arrow	our #3
4th	#7 Holy Cow	our #4
5th	#1 Rockin Empire	our #5

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 HENRY'S BUDDY (9-5) — our number agrees.
#3 HENRY'S BUDDY — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 39.4%, they've got 28.1%.
#6 RUDI — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 28.8%, they've got 19.7%.
#5 LIGHTING ARROW — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 14.2%, they've got 11.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#3 HENRY'S BUDDY — we make it 39.4%, the morning line works out to 28.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 RUDI — we make it 28.8%, the morning line works out to 19.7%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#5 LIGHTING ARROW — we make it 14.2%, the morning line works out to 11.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 HOLY COW (8-1) — our fair 11.5% is above the morning line's 8.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #2 Tom B The Goat; pressure from #7 Holy Cow, #5 Lighting Arrow; the shape helps #1 Rockin Empire; and works against #2 Tom B The Goat, #5 Lighting Arrow, #7 Holy Cow.

Lead

2Tom B The Goat657Holy Cow645Lighting Arrow60

Press

4Fifteen Hundred R823Henry's Buddy776Rudi59

Stalk

none

1Rockin Empire83

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Fifteen Hundred R

Henry's Buddy

Tom B The Goat

Holy Cow

Lighting Arrow

Rudi

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Rockin Empire

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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 3-4-5) $.50 PICK 5 (RACES 3-4-5-6-7)

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