Pick sheet

Race 52:08 PM OClm 25000n1x

5F · Turf · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Love Like Lucy, is 28% to win (morning line implies 23%). Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #10 Love Like Lucy ML 3-1 Fair 5-2 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲ Up +5 ↕ Up and down 62–89 ▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (83 vs 89)

Jockey R. Hughes · Trainer S. Joseph Jr. · KEE 1: 0-1-0 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 5f turf 89 · 43 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	GP	6f D	fsAlw52000n1x	Won/7 by hd	83	0.5-1	L	Svd gnd;dug in;held
7/3	GP	5f T	fsAlw65000n1x	2nd/7 -2L	89	2.3-1	L	Ins;surged 3p;missed
5/23	GP	6f D	GameFaceB100k	Won/5	82	3.4-1		2p;mvd out;bid;held on

Case: Last out won in the fsAlw52000n1x at GP. Last Brisnet figures 83-89-82. Best at today's distance 89. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Gulfstream Park. S. Joseph Jr. / R. Hughes.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #2 Alpenglow ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▲ Up +3

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer J. D'Angelo · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 2: 0-0-0 · 29 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	5½f T	Alw b	7th/11 -3L	82	36-1	b L	Saved ground;lack bid
6/7	SAR	5½f T	SorSftly G3	7th/7 -6½L	70	16-1	b	Outside;2p turn;empty
5/9	BAQ	6f T	TkeThATrnB150k	4th/8 by hd	83	13-1	b	Bumped st; wknd late

Case: Last out 7th/11 -3L in the fAlw130315b at KEE. Last Brisnet figures 82-70-83. Best at today's distance 84. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Gulfstream Park. J. D'Angelo / L. Reyes.

Knock: 0-for-2 at the distance.

Use #5 Flowko ML 6-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ▲ Up +3 · career best ≡ Steady 78–83 Last out 2nd in the fOC25000n1x at GP. Last Brisnet figures 83-78-83. Best at today's distance 83. 0-for-1 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Gulfstream Park. R. Miller / M. Meneses. Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey M. Meneses · Trainer R. Miller · KEE 2: 0-1-0 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 5f turf 83 · 34 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/9 -5L	83	18-1	b L	Good bid;up for place
6/20	GP	7f D	AzaleaB100k	5th/6 -1½L	78	8.3-1	b	Pace inside; faltered
5/31	GP	6½f D	fsAlw65000n1x	Won/7	83	0.5-1	b L	Drew off; easy winner

Longshot #3 Chance to Party ML 12-1 Fair 10-1 Model #6 ▼ Down -3

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer M. Lightner · KEE 1: 1-0-0 · Dist 3: 1-0-1 · best fig at 5f turf 87 · 89 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/3	GP	5f D	OC 25k n1x	5th/8 -5L	77	12-1	L	Dueled 3w; weakened
7/10	CNL	5½f T	Alw nc	6th/7 -5L	69	8.9-1	L	Dueled;rail;wknd lane
5/8	GP	5f T	fsAlw65000n1x	Won/10	87	11-1	L	Duel;bid2w;held gamely

Case: Last out 5th/8 -5L in the fOC25000n1x at GP. Last Brisnet figures 77-69-87. Best at today's distance 87. 1-for-3 at the distance. 1-for-1 at Gulfstream Park. M. Lightner / D. Herrera.

Knock: Off 89 days.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #9, #10 · B #2, #5, #7 · C #3, #4, #6, #8

Angles: #7 Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises · #9 Lone speed on early pace · #10 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (83 vs 89)

R5 Gulfstream Park · Optional Claiming $25,000

2:08 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $54,000 · 10 runners2:08 PM · 5f Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $54K · Optional Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Laila Bella GirlJ. Torrealba · J. BraddyTorrealba · BraddyA83 83 79►≡@trip 896-1Fair 7-112%► Steady83 83 79 ≡@trip 89A

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 83 79

Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career 4-for-21 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer J David Braddy 27% career 0-for-6 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Mr. Hetty 8-1, R4: Brother Brad 5-1, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1, R7: Caribbean Comet 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Deuxieme Chance 9-5

Owns the highest recent figure here at 89. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 16 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 8 starts here

RECORD Jg Torrealba from post 1 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 18 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	4th/9 -5L	83	6.6-1	b L	Bid stretch;good gain
8/31	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/6 -2L	83	3.5-1	b L	Chased; dug in 2d
8/3	GP	5f D	OC 25k n1x	4th/8 -1L	79	6.5-1	b L	Waited 1/4; split 2p

2AlpenglowL. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloB82 70 83▲+37-2Fair 4-121%▲ Up +382 70 83B2

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 82 70 83

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 13-for-55 on turf this meet (24%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-37 on turf this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R2: Deuxieme Chance 9-5, R3: Fifteen Hundred R 5-1, R6: Cipresa 9-2 +5 more · Trainer R1: New Friend 6-1, R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1, R6: Starship Stella 5-2 +4 more

Drops from allowance to allowance optional claiming. Finished 7th in an 11-horse allowance race at KEE, beaten 3 lengths.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 12 (4F in :46.40), 2 works in 30d

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 2 here: 45 wins, 140 top-3 in 328 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	5½f T	Alw b	7th/11 -3L	82	36-1	b L	Saved ground;lack bid
6/7	SAR	5½f T	SorSftly G3	7th/7 -6½L	70	16-1	b	Outside;2p turn;empty
5/9	BAQ	6f T	TkeThATrnB150k	4th/8 by hd	83	13-1	b	Bumped st; wknd late

3Chance to PartyLSD. Herrera · M. LightnerHerrera · LightnerC77 69 87▼-3@trip 8712-1Fair 10-18%▼ Down -377 69 87@trip 87CLS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 69 87

Longshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 6%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 8-for-56 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Mary Lightner 24% career 0-for-1 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Fight And Pray 6-1, R2: Golden Ambition 9-2, R3: Rudi 3-1, R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5 +4 more

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK4/6 board here

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Class relief: optional claiming last time, allowance optional claiming today.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 26 (4F in :48.40), 0 works in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 3 here: 9 wins, 40 top-3 in 72 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/3	GP	5f D	OC 25k n1x	5th/8 -5L	77	12-1	L	Dueled 3w; weakened
7/10	CNL	5½f T	Alw nc	6th/7 -5L	69	8.9-1	L	Dueled;rail;wknd lane
5/8	GP	5f T	fsAlw65000n1x	Won/10	87	11-1	L	Duel;bid2w;held gamely

4Take Charge BooJ. Rios · J. GallegosRios · GallegosC68 76 73▼▼-10@trip 7610-1Fair 10-19%▼▼ Big drop -1068 76 73@trip 76C

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 76 73

Jockey Jesus M Rios 28% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Jose A Gallegos 27% career

Also today · Jockey R9: Champagne Brunch 30-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Jose A Gallegos takes over the training from Michelle Castillo. Switches from dirt to turf.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 6d ago

RECORD Jesus M Rios from post 4 here: 10 wins, 39 top-3 in 104 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	LRL	5½f D	Alw n1x	5th/7 -5½L	68	11-1	L	Inside; no factor
8/18	PEN	5f T	Alw n1x	2nd/8 -1½L	76	10-1	L	3wd btw;shift out;game
7/31	PEN	6f D	Alw n1x	5th/8 -3½L	73	4.1-1	L	Chck 3/8;re-bid 5w

5FlowkoM. Meneses · R. MillerMeneses · MillerB83 78 83▲+3≡@trip 836-1Fair 7-112%▲ Up +3 · career best83 78 83 ≡@trip 83B3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 78–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 78 83

Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career 5-for-26 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Rory C Miller 30% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R1: Chief Lion 8-1, R2: Leo's Rocket 5-1, R8: Java Buzz 12-1, R9: Ditched 10-1 +1 more

5/9 board here

2nd last time, 5 lengths back, in a field of 9. An 83 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 49d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Marcos Meneses from post 5 here: 6 wins, 29 top-3 in 98 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/9 -5L	83	18-1	b L	Good bid;up for place
6/20	GP	7f D	AzaleaB100k	5th/6 -1½L	78	8.3-1	b	Pace inside; faltered
5/31	GP	6½f D	fsAlw65000n1x	Won/7	83	0.5-1	b L	Drew off; easy winner

6TizasweetladyN. Juarez · L. McKanasJuarez · McKanasC71 85 57▼-4↕@trip 8510-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -471 85 57 ↕@trip 85C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 85 57

Jockey Nik Juarez 30% career 0-for-8 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Leon J McKanas

Also today · Jockey R1: Etruscan Warrior 9-2, R10: Forty Love 2-1, R11: Justin Smiles 20-1

180D+ LAYOFFJky 0/15 from post 6

Returns from a 204-day break, the biggest in the field. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 21d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 9 starts here

RECORD Nik Juarez has never won from post 6 here (5 top-3 in 15 rides) · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/10	GP	5f D	Alw s	7th/8 -3½L	71	4.5-1	b L	4w; faded left lead
3/22	GP	5f T	MldyOClrsB125k	3rd/8 -3½L	85	74-1	b	Ins;3w upper;fin well
3/14	GP	6f D	AnyLimitB125k	5th/5 -15L	57	23-1	b	Trailed 2path

7Mywifeknowsitall▼J. Ocasio · G. JacksonOcasio · JacksonB71 81 85▼▼-1020-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1071 81 85B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 71 81 85

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Jonathan Ocasio 26% career 3-for-18 on turf this meet (17%) · Trainer Gary G Jackson 31% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R3: Tom B The Goat 9-2, R7: Ready To Rage 12-1, R10: Kazooza 10-1 · Trainer R10: Cossatot 5-2

60D LAYOFFCLASS UP6/11 board here

Trending the wrong way on speed, 85 to 81 to 71. 146 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago

RECORD 4 wins, 6 on the board from 11 starts here

RECORD Jonathan Ocasio from post 7 here: 7 wins, 30 top-3 in 84 rides · 9% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/7	GP	5½f D	OC 25k n1x	6th/7 -4L	71	7.4-1	b L	One paced off rail
5/1	GP	5½f D	OC 20k	5th/5 -2½L	81	3.2-1	b L	Step slow;3w;no kick
4/9	GP	5½f D	Alw s	Won/6	85	3.9-1	b L	Svgrnd; kept to task

8Hidden AgendaJ. Santos · R. CoySantos · CoyC56 77 70▼▼-21↕@trip 7030-1Fair 50-12%▼▼ Big drop -2156 77 70 ↕@trip 70C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 56–84 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 77 70

Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Ronald Coy 29% career 0-for-2 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Emerging Leader 4-1, R3: Rockin Empire 15-1, R4: Blue Slide Park 6-1, R6: Swell 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R4: Brooklyn Guy 5-2

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Dropped in well back early last out, 7th of 8 at the first call.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped start; 4-5w. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 14d back

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/3	GP	5f D	OC 25k n1x	8th/8 -1¼L	56	16-1	L	Bumped start; 4-5w
6/26	GP	5½f D	Clm 30k n2x	Won/8 by 2½	77	3.7-1	L	Track4w;roused;in time
4/12	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	5th/5 -6½L	70	29-1	L	Track2w;btwn uppr;wknd

9Neodera▲E. Perez · M. LermanPerez · LermanA83 86 86►≡@trip 869-2<1%► Steady83 86 86 ≡@trip 86A▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model <1% · Our #10 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 79–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 86 86
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Edgar Perez 32% career 0-for-17 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Michael Lerman 28% career 1-for-3 on turf this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Scottie Too Hottie 10-1, R7: Heracles 3-1, R8: Readier 12-1, R9: Amazonka 15-1 +1 more
7/10 board here
Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 106).
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 93 days ago
RECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 10 starts here
RECORD Edgar Perez from post 9 here: 10 wins, 35 top-3 in 74 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/27 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x 3rd/9 83 1.0-1 b L Set fast pace;tire lat
8/31 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x Won/6 86 1.4-1 b L Away alertly; clear
8/1 GP 5f T OC 35k Won/4 86 5.8-1 b L Clear 1/8;held safe

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	3rd/9	83	1.0-1	b L	Set fast pace;tire lat
8/31	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	Won/6	86	1.4-1	b L	Away alertly; clear
8/1	GP	5f T	OC 35k	Won/4	86	5.8-1	b L	Clear 1/8;held safe

10Love Like Lucy▼R. Hughes · S. Joseph Jr.Hughes · Joseph Jr.A83 89 82▲+5↕@trip 893-1Fair 5-228%▲ Up +583 89 82 ↕@trip 89A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (83 vs 89)1

Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–89 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 89 82

▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (83 vs 89)

Jockey Rasheed Hughes 34% career 0-for-20 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph 3-for-21 on turf this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R9: City Minute 2-1, R10: Lawler 3-1 · Trainer R9: City Minute 2-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST7/9 board here

Back to 5 furlongs off a 6 furlongs race. Last start was a win, in a 7-horse allowance race at GP at 0.5-1.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS SHARP 3f in :34.00 on Oct 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 3 wins, 7 on the board from 9 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/18	GP	6f D	fsAlw52000n1x	Won/7 by hd	83	0.5-1	L	Svd gnd;dug in;held
7/3	GP	5f T	fsAlw65000n1x	2nd/7 -2L	89	2.3-1	L	Ins;surged 3p;missed
5/23	GP	6f D	GameFaceB100k	Won/5	82	3.4-1		2p;mvd out;bid;held on

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 5

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $25,000

Field

10 runners

Purse

$54,000

Post

2:08 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#10 · 28%

Claiming $25,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 5 Furlongs: 53.61

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #10 Love Like Lucy (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 83 · 89 · 82. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #2 Alpenglow at 7-2. Use #5 Flowko in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #10 LOVE LIKE LUCY (3-1) — our number agrees.
#10 LOVE LIKE LUCY — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 24.6%, they've got 19.6%.
#2 ALPENGLOW — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 20.9%, they've got 17.4%.
#5 FLOWKO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.6% to their 11.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#10 LOVE LIKE LUCY — we make it 24.6%, the morning line works out to 19.6%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 ALPENGLOW — we make it 20.9%, the morning line works out to 17.4%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 CHANCE TO PARTY (12-1) — our fair 7.4% is above the morning line's 6.0%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #9 Neodera; pressure from #3 Chance To Party, #1 Laila Bella Girl; the shape helps #1 Laila Bella Girl, #2 Alpenglow, #4 Take Charge Boo; and works against #3 Chance To Party, #9 Neodera.

Lead

9Neodera1063Chance To Party90

Press

1Laila Bella Girl975Flowko962Alpenglow907Mywifeknowsitall8910Love Like Lucy898Hidden Agenda87

Stalk

6Tizasweetlady854Take Charge Boo81

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Neodera

106

Laila Bella Girl

Flowko

Alpenglow

Chance To Party

Mywifeknowsitall

Love Like Lucy

Hidden Agenda

Tizasweetlady

Take Charge Boo

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Alpenglow

Take Charge Boo

Tizasweetlady

Chance To Party

Hidden Agenda

Love Like Lucy

Mywifeknowsitall

Laila Bella Girl

Flowko

Neodera

Bet types offeredwager menu

Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 5-6-7)

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WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta

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