| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | GP | 5f D | Clm 35k b | 6th/7 -½L | 73 | 24-1 | b L | Chased for 1/2; faded |
| 8/29 | GP | 5½f D | MCL 12k | Won/7 | 73 | 8.4-1 | b L | Clear;widen held well |
| 3/14 | TAM | 7f D | MCL 10k | 10th/12 -8L | 44 | 4.7-1 | b L | Bmp brk;2p;tired |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | GP | 5f D | Clm 10k n2l | 5th/6 -6½L | 65 | 4.1-1 | b L | Off slow;bid;faltered |
| 9/19 | GP | 5½f D | Clm 10k n2l | 3rd/9 -½L | 71 | 4.0-1 | b L | Set press pace;ran on |
| 8/30 | CNL | 5f T | Clm 16k n2l | 7th/10 -7L | 67 | 10-1 | b L | 4w; bump upper;empty |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | GP | 5f D | Clm 10k n2l | 3rd/6 -3½L | 74 | 7.0-1 | b L | Asked rail; mild rally |
| 9/13 | GP | 6½f D | Clm 10k n2l | 5th/8 -9½L | 62 | 44-1 | b L | Forward 3wd; faded |
| 8/2 | GP | 6½f D | Clm 10k n2l | 7th/8 -12L | 54 | 4.5-1 | b L | Off slow;no factor |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/8 | GP | 5½f D | Clm 10k n2l | 9th/11 -8L | 60 | 5.8-1 | b L | Bmp st;3-5w;no factor |
| 7/25 | GP | 1m T | Clm 17k n2l | 5th/7 -3L | 64 | 14-1 | b L | Stalk 2w;led;gave way |
| 6/7 | GP | 5½f D | Clm 12k n2l | 2nd/6 -4L | 71 | 5.2-1 | b L | Closer4-5w1/4;no match |
1Golden Ambition▼★Ran 3rdD. Herrera · S. KlesarisHerrera · KlesarisB65 71 67▼-4≡@trip 759-2Fair 9-218%
▼ Down -465 71 67 ≡@trip 75B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81★ Best at the trip 752Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 65–71 · Best fig at today's trip 75 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 71 67
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 81★ Best at the trip 75Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 9-for-66 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Steve Klesaris 29% career 2-for-12 on dirt this meet (17%)Also today · Jockey R1: Fight And Pray 6-1, R3: Rudi 3-1, R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5, R5: Chance To Party 12-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Brother Brad 5-1★ FASTEST WORKRaises its level, $8,000 claiming last time and $10,000 claiming now. Best recent figure is 71, well under the 81 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 3)TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Off slow; bid; faltered. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 17 (4F in :48.60), 0 works in 30dRECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 9 starts hereRECORD Diego A Herrera from post 1 here: 15 wins, 40 top-3 in 69 rides · 20% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 5f D Clm 10k n2l 5th/6 -6½L 65 4.1-1 b L Off slow;bid;faltered 9/19 GP 5½f D Clm 10k n2l 3rd/9 -½L 71 4.0-1 b L Set press pace;ran on 8/30 CNL 5f T Clm 16k n2l 7th/10 -7L 67 10-1 b L 4w; bump upper;empty 2Leo's RocketRan 2ndM. Meneses · D. HurtakMeneses · HurtakA67 80 67▼-7@trip 745-1Fair 7-113%
▼ Down -767 80 67@trip 74ACard model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 80 67
Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career 5-for-27 on dirt this meet (19%) · Trainer Daniel Hurtak 21% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R1: Chief Lion 8-1, R5: Flowko 6-1, R8: Java Buzz 12-1, R9: Ditched 10-1 +1 more · Trainer this race: Ky's Law 10-1, R7: Megaplumb 20-15/9 board hereChanges barns, from Ronald Coy to Daniel Hurtak. Owns the highest recent figure here at 80.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 51d agoRECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 9 starts hereRECORD Marcos Meneses from post 2 here: 11 wins, 33 top-3 in 81 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 GP 5½f D Clm 10k n2lc 7th/9 -2¾L 67 4.3-1 b L Pressed; gave way late 8/29 GP 5f D Clm 10k n2l 2nd/6 80 1.2-1 b L Dug-in;no match;hld pl 7/5 GP 5f D Clm 17k n2x 5th/8 -5L 67 8.0-1 b L Off slowly; no factor 3Emerging Leader▼Ran 1stJ. Santos · S. MedinaSantos · MedinaA74 62 54▲▲+114-1Fair 5-116%
▲▲ Big jump +1174 62 54A▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 813Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · Last 3 figs 74 62 54
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Santiago Medina 32% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R3: Rockin Empire 15-1, R4: Blue Slide Park 6-1, R5: Hidden Agenda 30-1, R6: Swell 20-1 +2 moreHas moved up each time out, 54 to 62 to 74. Last out was 3rd, 3½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $8,000 claiming race at GP.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD 0 wins, 3 on the board from 7 starts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 5f D Clm 10k n2l 3rd/6 -3½L 74 7.0-1 b L Asked rail; mild rally 9/13 GP 6½f D Clm 10k n2l 5th/8 -9½L 62 44-1 b L Forward 3wd; faded 8/2 GP 6½f D Clm 10k n2l 7th/8 -12L 54 4.5-1 b L Off slow;no factor 4Value Inthe Clouds▼Ran 5thC. Martinez · H. CollazoMartinez · CollazoC64 68 67▼-5≡@trip 7120-1Fair 50-12%
▼ Down -564 68 67 ≡@trip 71C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 64–71 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 68 67
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 81Jockey Carlos Martinez 33% career 2-for-33 on dirt this meet (6%) · Trainer Henry Collazo 14% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meetNeeds to move up: the best of its last five is 71 against a 81 par. Beaten 9 lengths for 6th in a 6-horse $10,000 claiming race at GP.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.TROUBLED TRIP Asked 5wd; faded last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 54 days agoRECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 9 starts hereRECORD Carlos Martinez from post 4 here: 2 wins, 6 top-3 in 23 rides · 7% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 5f D Clm 10k n2l 6th/6 -9L 64 12-1 b L Asked 5wd; faded 9/19 GP 5½f D Clm 10k n2l 6th/9 -4¾L 68 26-1 b L Failed to menace; 6/12 GP 5f D Clm 17k n2x 6th/6 -5½L 67 33-1 b L Chased 2w; faded 5Scottie Too HottieE. Perez · V. Barboza Jr.Perez · Barboza Jr.C55 61 49►@trip 5810-1<1%
► Steady55 61 49@trip 58CCard model <1% · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 58 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 61 49
Jockey Edgar Perez 32% career 3-for-24 on dirt this meet (12%) · Trainer Victor Jr Barboza ★ 9-for-19 on dirt this meet (47%), #1 of 31Also today · Jockey R5: Neodera 9-2, R7: Heracles 3-1, R8: Readier 12-1, R9: Amazonka 15-1 +1 more · Trainer R9: Super Sienna 12-1, R9: Amazonka 15-160D LAYOFFComes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Was running in $14,000 claiming; today's $10,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts hereRECORD Edgar Perez from post 5 here: 29 wins, 88 top-3 in 220 rides · 10% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/14 MTH 5f T Clm 16k n2l 4th/5 -¾L 55 3.0-1 b L Vied inside; weakened 6/28 MTH 5½f T Clm 16k b 7th/7 -9½L 61 9.9-1 b L Inside; steady 3/8 5/29 GP 5½f D OC 25k 7th/7 -9L 49 11-1 b L Stalked4-3w; stopped 6Deuxieme Chance▼Ran 7thL. Reyes · J. BraddyReyes · BraddyA73 73 44▲▲+24↕@trip 739-5Fair 2-132%
▲▲ Big jump +24 · career best73 73 44 ↕@trip 73A▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 811Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +24 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 31–73 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 73 44
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 81Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career 10-for-68 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer J David Braddy 27% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R3: Fifteen Hundred R 5-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Cipresa 9-2 +5 more · Trainer R5: Laila Bella Girl 6-1CLASS UPDrops from $35,000 claiming to $10,000 claiming. Led at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 35 days agoRECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 6 starts hereRECORD Leonel Reyes from post 6 here: 30 wins, 139 top-3 in 336 rides · 13% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 5f D Clm 35k b 6th/7 -½L 73 24-1 b L Chased for 1/2; faded 8/29 GP 5½f D MCL 12k Won/7 73 8.4-1 b L Clear;widen held well 3/14 TAM 7f D MCL 10k 10th/12 -8L 44 4.7-1 b L Bmp brk;2p;tired 7Ky's Law▼LSRan 6thS. Leon · D. HurtakLeon · HurtakB60 64 71▼▼-8@trip 7110-1Fair 10-18%
▼▼ Big drop -860 64 71@trip 71B▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 81LSCard model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 64 71
▼ Best fig 71 is 5+ under today's par 81LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Sonny Leon 29% career 1-for-21 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Daniel Hurtak 21% career 1-for-9 on dirt this meet (11%)Also today · Jockey R1: Slew Vinbiz 4-1, R3: Henry's Buddy 9-5, R7: Indian Pharoah 8-1, R8: Velociraptor 4-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Leo's Rocket 5-1, R7: Megaplumb 20-160D LAYOFFCLASS DROPFigures have slipped: 71, 64, 60 over its last three. A 84-day gap since its last race.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bmp st; 3-5w; no factor. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 9d agoRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 8 starts hereRECORD Sonny Leon from post 7 here: 10 wins, 33 top-3 in 88 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/8 GP 5½f D Clm 10k n2l 9th/11 -8L 60 5.8-1 b L Bmp st;3-5w;no factor 7/25 GP 1m T Clm 17k n2l 5th/7 -3L 64 14-1 b L Stalk 2w;led;gave way 6/7 GP 5½f D Clm 12k n2l 2nd/6 -4L 71 5.2-1 b L Closer4-5w1/4;no match 8Freedom StreetRan 4thJ. Morelos · J. EnglerMorelos · EnglerB73 69 80►@trip 696-1Fair 10-110%
► Steady73 69 80@trip 69BCard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 69 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 69 80
Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-51 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Jeff Engler 26% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meetAlso today · Jockey R1: Bandari 3-1, R3: Lighting Arrow 6-1, R4: Friolento 12-1, R6: Bashfully 5-1 +3 more★ FASTEST WORKTops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 74 for the next best. The Oct 12 work, 3F in :34.20, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Oct 12; 0 works in 30dRECORD 1 win, 3 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Jose E Morelos from post 8 here: 15 wins, 45 top-3 in 158 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 5f D Clm 10k n2l 4th/6 -7L 73 6.6-1 b L Split horses; gaining 9/19 GP 5½f D Clm 10k n2l 5th/9 -2½L 69 16-1 b L Flattened out 8/29 GP 5f D Clm 10k n2l 3rd/6 -½L 80 12-1 b L Rail rally;good try
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #6 Deuxieme Chance, finished 7th.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 2
OFFICIALClaiming $10,000
Claiming $10,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 61.61
The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #6 Deuxieme Chance (early speed, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 73 · 73 · 44. Backup is #1 Golden Ambition at 9-2. Use #3 Emerging Leader in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · OUT
Emerging Leader (arg) won (not in our top 5) · top pick Deuxieme Chance ran 7th
What didn't
- ✗ Top pick off the board (7th)
- ✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (not in our top 5)
- ✗ Our top 3 finished 7th, 3rd, —
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #6 DEUXIEME CHANCE | 7th |
| #2 | #1 GOLDEN AMBITION | 3rd |
| #3 | #3 EMERGING LEADER | — |
| #4 | #2 LEO'S ROCKET | 2nd |
| #5 | #8 FREEDOM STREET | 4th |
Actual finish
| 1st | Emerging Leader (ARG) | unranked |
| 2nd | #2 Leo's Rocket | our #4 |
| 3rd | #1 Golden Ambition | our #2 |
| 4th | #8 Freedom Street | our #5 |
| 5th | #4 Value Inthe Clouds | our #7 |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 DEUXIEME CHANCE (9-5) — our number agrees.
- #6 DEUXIEME CHANCE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.5% to their 27.9%).
- #3 EMERGING LEADER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.6% to their 15.7%).
- #1 GOLDEN AMBITION — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 17.4%, they've got 14.2%.
Model vs the morning line
- #1 GOLDEN AMBITION — we make it 17.4%, the morning line works out to 14.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #5 Scottie Too Hottie; pressure from #6 Deuxieme Chance, #2 Leo's Rocket; and works against #1 Golden Ambition, #2 Leo's Rocket, #5 Scottie Too Hottie.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA
$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 2-3-4) / $.50 PICK 4 (RACES 2-3-4-5)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta