Pick sheet

Race 94:45 PM OClm 25000n1x

1 1/16 Mi · Turf · 9 entered. Our model's top pick, City Minute, is 38% to win (morning line implies 33%). Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

Top pick #2 City Minute ML 2-1 Fair 8-5 Model #1 ▼ Down -5

Jockey R. Hughes · Trainer S. Joseph Jr. · KEE 4: 1-2-1 · Dist 1: 0-1-0 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 88 · 49 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	GP	1 1/16 D	GngrPnchHB100k	5th/9 -3¼L	78	6.7-1	b	No late kick
8/10	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/8 by hd	88	2.1-1	b L	Floated wide; gamely
7/11	GP	1 1/16 D	PowderBrkB100k	6th/7 -2L	78	6.9-1	b	Pace;tight 3/16;empty

Case: Last out 5th/9 -3¼L in the fGngrPnchHB100k at GP. Last Brisnet figures 78-88-78. Best at today's distance 88. 0-for-1 at the distance. 1-for-4 at Gulfstream Park. S. Joseph Jr. / R. Hughes.

Knock: 0-for-1 at the distance.

Contender #3 Gum ML 5-2 Fair 5-2 Model #2 ▲ Up +7 · career best ▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 82

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer R. Dibona · Dist 5: 0-2-2 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 81 · 57 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	SAR	1 3/16 T	OC 55k n1x	5th/10 -2½L	85	29-1	b L	Saved grd; outfinished
8/12	SAR	1m T	MCL 85kc	Won/10 by 3	81	2.0-1	b L	Bumped st; up late
7/10	SAR	1 1/16 T	MCL 100k	3rd/8 -½L	81	4.9-1	b L	Ins;split1/8;chckd1/16

Case: Last out 5th/10 -2½L in the fOC55000n1x at SAR. Last Brisnet figures 85-81-81. Best at today's distance 81. 0-for-5 at the distance. R. Dibona / D. Herrera.

Knock: Never raced at Gulfstream Park. 0-for-5 at the distance.

Use #6 Mia Familia ML 7-2 Fair 4-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 80–82 Last out 3rd in the fOC25000n1x at GP. Last Brisnet figures 81-82-80. Best at today's distance 83. 1-for-2 at the distance. 1-for-5 at Gulfstream Park. J. D'Angelo / L. Reyes. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer J. D'Angelo · KEE 5: 1-0-2 · Dist 2: 1-0-1 · best fig at 1 1/16 turf 82 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	3rd/7 -1½L	81	1.4-1	b L	Loomed 4w; not enough
8/30	DMR	1m T	OC 80k n1x	4th/8	82	9.6-1	b L	Brk in/bpd;4-3w;bid3w
8/9	DMR	1m T	OC 80k n1x	3rd/6	80	4.6-1	b L	Duel inside;flattened

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #6 · B #1, #4, #7 · C #8, #9 · ? #5 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82 · #3 Last fig 85 at/above par 82 · #7 Last fig 86 at/above par 82 · #8 Lone speed on early pace

R9 Gulfstream Park · Optional Claiming $25,000

4:45 PM ET · 1 1/16 Miles Turf · $54,000 · 9 runners4:45 PM · 1 1/16m Turf · 9 runners

Upcoming $54K · Optional Claiming $25,000

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Super Sienna▼J. Torrealba · V. Barboza Jr.Torrealba · Barboza Jr.B7612-1<1%—76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82
Card model <1% · Our #8 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 76
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 82
Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career 4-for-21 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Victor Jr Barboza 5-for-27 on turf this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Mr. Hetty 8-1, R4: Brother Brad 5-1, R5: Laila Bella Girl 6-1, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1 +2 more · Trainer R2: Scottie Too Hottie 10-1, this race: Amazonka 15-1
Switches from dirt to turf. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Sep 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
RECORD Jg Torrealba from post 1 here: 2 wins, 8 top-3 in 18 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 6th/7 -6L 76 5.2-1 L Failed to menace
5/24 *HD 1¼m T Clsc Rpublc G3 7th/9 — —
4/26 *HD 1¼m T Clsc Pmpln G1 2nd/14 -1½L — —

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	6th/7 -6L	76	5.2-1	L	Failed to menace
5/24	*HD	1¼m T	Clsc Rpublc G3	7th/9	—	—
4/26	*HD	1¼m T	Clsc Pmpln G1	2nd/14 -1½L	—	—

2City MinuteR. Hughes · S. Joseph Jr.Hughes · Joseph Jr.A78 88 78▼-5@trip 882-1Fair 8-538%▼ Down -578 88 78@trip 88A1

Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 88 78

Jockey Rasheed Hughes 34% career 0-for-20 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph 3-for-21 on turf this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Love Like Lucy 3-1, R10: Lawler 3-1 · Trainer R5: Love Like Lucy 3-1

LASIX 1ST6/10 board here

Purse drops from $100,000 to $54,000 against its last start. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 88, with 86 next best.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 6 on the board from 10 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	GP	1 1/16 D	GngrPnchHB100k	5th/9 -3¼L	78	6.7-1	b	No late kick
8/10	GP	1 1/16 T	OC 25k n1x	2nd/8 by hd	88	2.1-1	b L	Floated wide; gamely
7/11	GP	1 1/16 D	PowderBrkB100k	6th/7 -2L	78	6.9-1	b	Pace;tight 3/16;empty

3Gum▲D. Herrera · R. DibonaHerrera · DibonaA85 81 81▲+7@trip 815-2Fair 5-231%▲ Up +7 · career best85 81 81@trip 81A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 822

Card model 31% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 81 81

▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 82

Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 8-for-56 on turf this meet (14%) · Trainer Robert S Dibona 34% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Fight And Pray 6-1, R2: Golden Ambition 9-2, R3: Rudi 3-1, R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5 +4 more

CLASS DROP

New trainer: Ilkay Kantarmaci had it last time, Robert S Dibona now. Was running in optional claiming; today's allowance optional claiming is an easier level on paper.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago

RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 3 here: 9 wins, 40 top-3 in 72 rides · 20% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	SAR	1 3/16 T	OC 55k n1x	5th/10 -2½L	85	29-1	b L	Saved grd; outfinished
8/12	SAR	1m T	MCL 85kc	Won/10 by 3	81	2.0-1	b L	Bumped st; up late
7/10	SAR	1 1/16 T	MCL 100k	3rd/8 -½L	81	4.9-1	b L	Ins;split1/8;chckd1/16

4Brutally HonestY. Torres · M. CasseTorres · CasseB73 82 81▼-6@trip 826-1Fair 10-110%▼ Down -673 82 81@trip 82B

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 82 81

Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career 0-for-24 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career 1-for-16 on turf this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R1: New Friend 6-1, R6: Starship Stella 5-2, R10: American Tact 20-1 · Trainer R3: Henry's Buddy 9-5, R11: Behold The King 6-1

CLASS DROP

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Beaten 7¾ lengths for 6th in a 7-horse optional claiming race at GP.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 22 days ago

RECORD 1 win, 1 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Yolber Torres from post 4 here: 13 wins, 42 top-3 in 130 rides · 10% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	6th/7 -7¾L	73	8.5-1	b L	Bmp'd st; no rally
9/14	WO	1 1/16 T	OC 50k n2l	3rd/9 -3½L	82	5.8-1	b L	Inside to str; kept on
8/2	WO	1m T	OC 50k n2l	3rd/9 -4L	81	8.8-1	b L	Off slow;2-3w;shift 5w

5AmazonkaE. Perez · V. Barboza Jr.Perez · Barboza Jr.?15-1<1%——?
Card model <1% · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Edgar Perez 32% career 0-for-17 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Victor Jr Barboza 5-for-27 on turf this meet (19%)
Also today · Jockey R2: Scottie Too Hottie 10-1, R5: Neodera 9-2, R7: Heracles 3-1, R8: Readier 12-1 +1 more · Trainer R2: Scottie Too Hottie 10-1, this race: Super Sienna 12-1
60D LAYOFFLASIX 1ST
Back after 160 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Changes barns, from Viza Romulo Raphael *herrera to Victor Jr Barboza.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 21d back)
RECORD Edgar Perez from post 5 here: 29 wins, 88 top-3 in 220 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/24 *HD 1¼m T Clsc Rpublc G3 6th/9 — —
4/26 *HD 1¼m T Clsc Pmpln G1 13th/14 -1½L — —
3/22 *HD 1 3/16 T Clsc Mr July9k 8th/9 — —

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
5/24	*HD	1¼m T	Clsc Rpublc G3	6th/9	—	—
4/26	*HD	1¼m T	Clsc Pmpln G1	13th/14 -1½L	—	—
3/22	*HD	1 3/16 T	Clsc Mr July9k	8th/9	—	—

6Mia FamiliaL. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloA81 82 80►≡@trip 827-2Fair 4-120%► Steady81 82 80 ≡@trip 82A3

Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 80–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 82 80

Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career ★ 13-for-55 on turf this meet (24%), #3 of 20 · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-37 on turf this meet (22%)

Also today · Jockey R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R2: Deuxieme Chance 9-5, R3: Fifteen Hundred R 5-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2 +5 more · Trainer R1: New Friend 6-1, R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, R6: Starship Cougar 4-1 +4 more

CLASS DROP5/7 board here

3rd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 7. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 7d back

RECORD 1 win, 5 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 6 here: 30 wins, 139 top-3 in 336 rides · 13% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	3rd/7 -1½L	81	1.4-1	b L	Loomed 4w; not enough
8/30	DMR	1m T	OC 80k n1x	4th/8	82	9.6-1	b L	Brk in/bpd;4-3w;bid3w
8/9	DMR	1m T	OC 80k n1x	3rd/6	80	4.6-1	b L	Duel inside;flattened

7Ditched▲M. Meneses · N. TomlinsonMeneses · TomlinsonB86 72 73▲▲+12@trip 7910-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best86 72 73@trip 79B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 82

Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 72 73

▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 82

Jockey Marcos Meneses 27% career 5-for-26 on turf this meet (19%) · Trainer Nicholas J Tomlinson 27% career 1-for-14 on turf this meet (7%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Chief Lion 8-1, R2: Leo's Rocket 5-1, R5: Flowko 6-1, R8: Java Buzz 12-1 +1 more

CLASS DROP7/10 board here

2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 5 at the first call.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 71d back)

RECORD 4 wins, 7 on the board from 10 starts here

RECORD Marcos Meneses from post 7 here: 8 wins, 28 top-3 in 64 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 20k	3rd/5 -6L	86	4.3-1	b L	Trailed 2-4p; kept on
9/6	GP	1 1/16 D	OC 25k n1x	7th/7 -7¾L	72	5.5-1	b L	Urged along; no rally
7/19	GP	1m T	Clm 20k c	3rd/6 -3L	73	1.1-1	b L	3-4w bid; willingly

8Champagne Brunch▲J. Rios · A. SanoRios · SanoC68 70 76►@trip 7730-1Fair 50-12%► Steady68 70 76@trip 77C▲ Lone speed on early pace

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 70 76

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Jesus M Rios 28% career 0-for-3 on turf this meet · Trainer Antonio Sano 26% career 0-for-17 on turf this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R5: Take Charge Boo 10-1 · Trainer R1: Fight And Pray 6-1, R3: Rudi 3-1

Goes 1 1/16 miles after running 5½ furlongs last time. Figures have slipped: 76, 70, 68 over its last three.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 21d ago

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Jesus M Rios from post 8 here: 11 wins, 37 top-3 in 75 rides · 11% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	GP	5½f D	OC 25k n1x	4th/7 -8½L	68	10-1	b L	Hit gt;svgnd;no threat
9/27	GP	5f T	OC 25k n1x	8th/9 -9¾L	70	29-1	b L	Evenly; no threat
9/4	GP	5f D	MSW	Won/6 by 1	76	3.9-1	b L	Shuffled;angl out;best

9Geaux AmyJ. Santos · D. ZanelliSantos · ZanelliC77 80 79▼-3≡20-1<1%▼ Down -377 80 79 ≡C

Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 77–80 · Last 3 figs 77 80 79

Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 0-for-13 on turf this meet (0%) · Trainer Dante Zanelli 14% career 2-for-3 on turf this meet

Also today · Jockey R2: Emerging Leader 4-1, R3: Rockin Empire 15-1, R4: Blue Slide Park 6-1, R5: Hidden Agenda 30-1 +2 more

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST7/14 board here

Won last out in an 8-horse $16,000 claiming race at GP. Sheds 6 pounds from its last start.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 19; 2 works in 30d

RECORD 5 wins, 7 on the board from 14 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 17k b	Won/8 by ½	77	2.1-1	b L	Determined drv;prevail
7/11	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 17k n2x	Won/9	80	1.5-1	b L	Rate;rail bid upr;drvg
7/3	GP	1 1/16 D	Clm 17k b	2nd/6 -5L	79	3.2-1	b L	3-4w bid;closing in

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 9

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $25,000

Field

9 runners

Purse

$54,000

Post

4:45 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#2 · 38%

Claiming $25,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 97.8

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #2 City Minute (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 78 · 88 · 78. Backup is #3 Gum at 5-2. Use #6 Mia Familia in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #2 CITY MINUTE (2-1) — our number agrees.
#2 CITY MINUTE — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 32.3%, they've got 25.8%.
#3 GUM — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 29.2%, they've got 22.1%.
#6 MIA FAMILIA — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.7%, they've got 17.2%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#2 CITY MINUTE — we make it 32.3%, the morning line works out to 25.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#3 GUM — we make it 29.2%, the morning line works out to 22.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#6 MIA FAMILIA — we make it 22.7%, the morning line works out to 17.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #8 Champagne Brunch; pressure from #2 City Minute, #9 Geaux Amy.

Lead

none

Press

8Champagne Brunch902City Minute789Geaux Amy776Mia Familia76

Stalk

none

7Ditched834Brutally Honest783Gum77

No style yet

1Super Sienna755Amazonka

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Champagne Brunch

City Minute

Geaux Amy

Mia Familia

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Gum

Brutally Honest

Ditched

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Bet types

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$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$3 PLAYERS LATE PICK 3 (RACES 9; 10; 11) / $1 SUNSET SIX

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