Pick sheet

Race 62:47 PM Md Sp Wt

1 Mi · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Eight Rose's, is 56% to win (morning line implies 45%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Eight Rose's ML 9-5 Fair 4-5 Model #1 ▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey D. Herrera · Trainer T. Pletcher · 54 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	SAR	6f D	MSW	4th/10 -11L	68	5.6-1		2p-ins turn;improved

Case: Last out 4th/10 -11L in the fMdSpWt at SAR. Last Brisnet figures 68. T. Pletcher / D. Herrera.

Knock: Never raced this far (longest 6f). Never raced at Gulfstream Park.

Contender #2 Bashfully ML 5-1 Fair 4-1 Model #2 ▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79

Jockey J. Morelos · Trainer T. Pletcher · 57 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/4	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	8th/8 -11L	64	7.5-1	b	Steady 1M; tired
8/1	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	4th/6 -7L	73	8.2-1		Bobbled after start

Case: Last out 8th/8 -11L in the fMdSpWt at SAR. Last Brisnet figures 64-73. T. Pletcher / J. Morelos.

Knock: Never raced at Gulfstream Park. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #5 Cipresa ML 9-2 Fair 5-1 Model #3 First career start. B. Lopez / L. Reyes. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey L. Reyes · Trainer B. Lopez · Debut

First start. By Cyberknife out of Pleasant Mine (Mineshaft)

Trainer B. Lopez: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 50% in the money (6 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 50% in the money (4 starts) · Maiden special weights: 20% wins, 60% in the money (5 starts)

Jockey L. Reyes in routes: 35 wins from 163 (21%)

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/15	PMM	5f	1:01.00	breezing	1/1	● bullet
10/8	PMM	4f	:48.00	breezing	2/7
9/26	PMM	4f	:48.80	breezing	12/49	from gate
9/19	PMM	4f	:49.00	breezing	16/43
9/12	PMM	4f	:49.00	breezing	25/41

Narrowing the field: A #2, #4, #6 · B #1, #3 · ? #5, #7 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

Angles: #1 Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #2 Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #3 Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #4 Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79 · #6 Lone speed on early pace

R6 Gulfstream Park · Maiden Special Weight

2:47 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $50,000 · 7 runners2:47 PM · 1m Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $50K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Lady Bluesville▼LSC. Gil · K. O'ConnellGil · O'ConnellB4420-1Fair 20-14%—44B▼ Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 79LS
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 44
▼ Best fig 44 is 5+ under today's par 79LS
Longshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Cipriano Gil 27% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet · Trainer Kathleen O'Connell 32% career 0-for-11 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R7: Sushi Party 5-2, R8: Hottakejake 7-2, R11: Turf Star 2-1 · Trainer R1: Slew Vinbiz 4-1
Jky 10/72 from post 1
Switches from turf to dirt. Beaten 20 lengths for 7th in a 7-horse race at GP.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 8d ago
RECORD Cipriano Gil from post 1 here: 10 wins, 31 top-3 in 72 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 GP 7½f T Moc50000 7th/7 -20L 44 14-1 No factor; outrun
2Bashfully▼J. Morelos · T. PletcherMorelos · PletcherA64 735-1Fair 4-120%—64 73A▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 792
Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 64 73
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Jose E Morelos 29% career 9-for-51 on dirt this meet (18%) · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Bandari 3-1, R2: Freedom Street 6-1, R3: Lighting Arrow 6-1, R4: Friolento 12-1 +3 more · Trainer this race: Eight Rose's 9-5
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Drops from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 8d ago)
RECORD Jose E Morelos from post 2 here: 37 wins, 108 top-3 in 271 rides · 11% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/4 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 8th/8 -11L 64 7.5-1 b Steady 1M; tired
8/1 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 4th/6 -7L 73 8.2-1 Bobbled after start
3Swell▼J. Santos · B. LopezSantos · LopezB66 4920-1Fair 30-14%—66 49B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 66 49
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Jonathan Santos 32% career 5-for-38 on dirt this meet (13%) · Trainer Bernardo G Lopez 26% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R2: Emerging Leader 4-1, R3: Rockin Empire 15-1, R4: Blue Slide Park 6-1, R5: Hidden Agenda 30-1 +2 more · Trainer this race: Cipresa 9-2
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 66 against a 79 par. 2nd last time, 12 lengths back, in a field of 7.
PACE CHALLENGE Closing into slow fractions is hard work.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 8d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/9 GP 1m T MCL 25k 2nd/7 -12L 66 2.3-1 2p2nd;bid1/4;improved
6/21 GP 5f D MSW 5th/7 -6L 49 34-1 3w; lacked punch
4Eight Rose's▼D. Herrera · T. PletcherHerrera · PletcherA689-5Fair 4-556%—68A▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 791
Card model 56% · Fair odds 4-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 68
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 79
Jockey Diego A Herrera 27% career 9-for-66 on dirt this meet (14%) · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: Fight And Pray 6-1, R2: Golden Ambition 9-2, R3: Rudi 3-1, R4: Wannabeeloved 9-5 +4 more · Trainer this race: Bashfully 5-1
★ FASTEST WORK
Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden special weight today.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (4F in :49.40), 2 works in 30d
RECORD Diego A Herrera from post 4 here: 12 wins, 39 top-3 in 63 rides · 20% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 SAR 6f D MSW 4th/10 -11L 68 5.6-1 2p-ins turn;improved
5CipresaL. Reyes · B. LopezReyes · Lopez?9-2Fair 5-116%—Debut?3
Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Leonel Reyes 30% career 10-for-68 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Bernardo G Lopez 26% career 1-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R2: Deuxieme Chance 9-5, R3: Fifteen Hundred R 5-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2 +5 more · Trainer this race: Swell 20-1
Debut for this Cyberknife filly, whose dam is Pleasant Mine. On Oct 8 it was 2nd of 7 at 4F (:48.00).
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 16d ago
RECORD Leonel Reyes from post 5 here: 48 wins, 143 top-3 in 332 rides · 13% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Cyberknife out of Pleasant Mine (Mineshaft)
Trainer B. Lopez: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 50% in the money (6 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 0% wins, 50% in the money (4 starts) · Maiden special weights: 20% wins, 60% in the money (5 starts)
Jockey L. Reyes in routes: 35 wins from 163 (21%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/15 PMM 5f 1:01.00 breezing 1/1 ● bullet
10/8 PMM 4f :48.00 breezing 2/7
9/26 PMM 4f :48.80 breezing 12/49 from gate
9/19 PMM 4f :49.00 breezing 16/43
9/12 PMM 4f :49.00 breezing 25/41
6Starship Cougar▲J. Torrealba · J. D'AngeloTorrealba · D'AngeloA784-1<1%—78A▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model <1% · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 78
▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Jg Torrealba 31% career ★ 4-for-18 on dirt this meet (22%), #3 of 19 · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-38 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Mr. Hetty 8-1, R4: Brother Brad 5-1, R5: Laila Bella Girl 6-1, R7: Caribbean Comet 20-1 +2 more · Trainer R1: New Friend 6-1, R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, this race: Starship Stella 5-2 +4 more
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 78, with 73 next best. A longer trip: 5 furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 8 days ago
RECORD Jg Torrealba from post 6 here: 4 wins, 9 top-3 in 17 rides · 14% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 GP 5f D MSW 4th/9 -7L 78 11-1 Good late interest
7Starship StellaY. Torres · J. D'AngeloTorres · D'Angelo?5-2<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Yolber Torres 32% career 4-for-26 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Jose Francisco D'Angelo 37% career ★ 8-for-38 on dirt this meet (21%)
Also today · Jockey R1: New Friend 6-1, R9: Brutally Honest 6-1, R10: American Tact 20-1 · Trainer R1: New Friend 6-1, R1: No Love Lost 10-1, R5: Alpenglow 7-2, this race: Starship Cougar 4-1 +4 more
First-time starter from a barn that wins 10% of the time with them (247 tried). Unraced so far; the pedigree is Jackie's Warrior out of Why Oh You.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
RECORD Yolber Torres from post 7 here: 7 wins, 30 top-3 in 96 rides · 10% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Jackie's Warrior out of Why Oh You (Yes It's True)
Trainer J. D'Angelo: 1st-time starters: 10% wins, 34% in the money (247 starts) · Debut maiden special weights: 8% wins, 35% in the money (167 starts) · Maiden special weights: 18% wins, 48% in the money (478 starts)
Jockey Y. Torres in routes: 8 wins from 133 (6%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/24 GP 4f :48.20 breezing 10/61
10/10 GP 4f :49.20 breezing 8/14
10/4 GP 4f :50.60 breezing 33/38
9/13 GP 3f :36.60 breezing 16/32
8/2 GP 3f :39.80 breezing 5/5

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	GP	7½f T	Moc50000	7th/7 -20L	44	14-1		No factor; outrun

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/9	GP	1m T	MCL 25k	2nd/7 -12L	66	2.3-1		2p2nd;bid1/4;improved
6/21	GP	5f D	MSW	5th/7 -6L	49	34-1		3w; lacked punch

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	GP	5f D	MSW	4th/9 -7L	78	11-1		Good late interest

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/24	GP	4f	:48.20	breezing	10/61
10/10	GP	4f	:49.20	breezing	8/14
10/4	GP	4f	:50.60	breezing	33/38
9/13	GP	3f	:36.60	breezing	16/32
8/2	GP	3f	:39.80	breezing	5/5

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

GULFSTREAM PARK · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$50,000

Post

2:47 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 56%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.13

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Eight Rose's (a tactical type, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 68. Backup is #2 Bashfully at 5-1. Use #5 Cipresa in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 EIGHT ROSE'S (9-5) — our number agrees.
#4 EIGHT ROSE'S — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 45.3%, they've got 27.8%.
#5 CIPRESA — our #3 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 22.1%, they've got 14.1%.
#2 BASHFULLY — our #2 number, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 21.6%, they've got 13.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

#4 EIGHT ROSE'S — we make it 45.3%, the morning line works out to 27.8%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#5 CIPRESA — we make it 22.1%, the morning line works out to 14.1%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
#2 BASHFULLY — we make it 21.6%, the morning line works out to 13.0%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 LADY BLUESVILLE (20-1) — our fair 5.3% is above the morning line's 3.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Lady Bluesville, #2 Bashfully, #3 Swell.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

3Swell72

No style yet

6Starship Cougar884Eight Rose's832Bashfully811Lady Bluesville735Cipresa7Starship Stella

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Starship Cougar

Eight Rose's

Bashfully

Lady Bluesville

Swell

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Swell

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Bet types

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$1 DAILY DOUBLE / $1 EXACTA / $.50 TRIFECTA / $.10 SUPERFECTA

$1.00 BET 3 (RACES 6-7-8) / $.20 RAINBOW PICK 6 (RACES 6-11)

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